There is a very small retention pond near my house that I always use as my personal barometer for lake ice-out. It is usually about 2 weeks ahead of the lakes.
I was out of town for a few days. When I left on Sunday, it was still mostly ice with melting on the edges. When I returned yesterday, it was completely ice-free and the ducks who return to it for a brief time each Spring were swimming around. This morning it was skimmed over with a thin layer of ice once again.
With the cold weather of the next few days, I'm sticking with my early April forecast.