Nice science work -- and a good guess on the day. (I figure it'll be out on April 15th).
The biggest wildcard in the equation is the wind.
The ice, even though it may appear as thick as 8", has many watery, vertical, passages through it. (It appears as silver "straws" frozen together).
As soon as the wind starts jostling the water through those passages, the ice rapidly fragments and blows away.
Of course, everything I just wrote is guesswork based on what I watched last year
. Last year, I was able to drive my aluminum outboard runabout through it
fairly fast, if a bit bumpy on the firmer stuff.