Slickcraft your computations are pretty accurate! NASA put out another release today.
Nicholas Johnson, the head of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office, has estimated that the chances that any of the UARS debris would hit anybody were 1 in 3,200 — which translates into a 1-in-20 trillion risk for any particular person (you, for example, unless you're living in, say, Finland ... in that case there's zero risk).
Don't worry SteveA, you can't believe everything that you read on the internet.
RG, It would be 100% if it were I.