Ice in 2021 ?
 

Does anyone know how this year compares to historical "Ice In" ?

We haven't had significant cold since a few days in December and the Christmas warmth/rain washed away ice that formed.

It looks like the fringe bays, coves and harbors are filling in slowly(Alton, Melvin, Center Harbor) and there does not look like a significant warm up in the next 10 - 15 days.

Will temps in the teens/twentys at night and low 30's in the day be enough to build significant ice? I supposed it depends on the wind along with the temps?

Ice?

I'm pretty sure 2021 will not be participating.

I do see people fishing on Lilly Pond in Gilford.

How thick is the ice under that thin layer of snow?

No ice for you!
 

We’re certainly well behind a “normal” year at this point. Open water as far as my webcam can see looking north from Mink Island. In a typical year, it’s already skimmed over and making ice. Water temps are slowly dropping into the usual strike zone of 34/35 degrees for ice to form on the surface. But we need colder weather than we see in the forecasts to come soon to have a lot of hope for safe ice beyond the bays as you mentioned by the time we get to the fishing derby in Feb. fingers crossed.

From www.svend.com/lake-winnipesaukee-ice-in/ it says:

As seen from a house, high up the Gilford hill, looking down Lake Winnipesaukee, ice-in dates;

2021 ............... time will tell? ....... 11-am, Monday, February 1 ...... CaptT820 ..... from post #95 ..... Emerson Aviation

2020 ............... no info ...... January 20 ...... rscalzo ...... from post #62

2019 ............... January 13

2018 ............... January 3

2017 ............... February 9

2016 ............... February 9

2015 ............... January 13

2014 & older .... no info

I don't expect to see much in the broads any time soon. There is no extremely cold days coming up. We would need a good cold snap that runs for a few days to a week straight to really start to lock things up, preferably with no wind.

I don't ice fish so it doesn't matter to me. Later ice in means and earlier ice out and I am good with that.

No ice?
 

So, for the first time in 60 years, we did major repairs/replacement of our docks, facing the Broads. For the first time, we got an ice-eater. Now you tell me I don't need any of that because the Broads won't freeze? Good thing we took a picture of the car in front of the new docks in 1960.

:laugh:

I would not say no ice this year by any means, but the short range forecast is not looking "solid". I see sunny days between 31-38 degrees, light and variable winds and nothing for storms showing for the next 10 days on my trusty Weatherbug app.

Has there ever been a year with no ice-in?


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We are fishing 20 mile bay about 2/3 the way out. 19 mile fishing out to chase island. Last weekend 5-6 inches. Has not been cold this week so doubt we added much. Sunday night the open water out beyond chase thru the graveyard skimmed over.

No Ice
 

Here in W. Alton looking at the Broads and the area between Smith Point and Rattlesnake and Sleepers the wind is blowing at 10-20 mph and the water is moving very fast. Not a chance there will be any ice soon in the wide open areas of the lake

Some parts always freeze
 

It depends. There are many years that the broads is not safe. There has never been a year (in the last 30) that Moultonboro Bay Inlet has not frozen safe.

Time Will Tell
 

The upcoming 10 day forecast calls for night time temps in the teens with mild wind and day time temps just at or below freezing. This will certainly help lock things up especially the mild wind. Below zero temps don't do a thing if the wind is blowing 20 MPH...

I certainly hope the lake fully freezes over this year!!

Dan

ice in
 

We've been at South Point on long island for 24 years and there has been only once in my recollection that the lake did not freeze over. Several years ago but I can't remember exactly when. Doesn't look promising with the highs consistently in the 30's.

A polar vortex may be with us in a few weeks so things could change quickly:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/weath...uth/index.html

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/01/...heric-warming/

La Nina
 

I've been watching this from a different perspective as I have friends that ski in Utah (Deer Valley) and Vancouver (Whistler). This year a La Nina is in place which is also driving where the snow/rain falls across the US.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/ne...t-snow-outlook

If the pattern does not change, Pacific Northwest skiing will be the best with Colorado and Utah not so great and resorts farther south dismal. To date, it has followed exactly this model - Whistler 230 inches to date // Deer Valley 77

Also as the enclosed suggests for the North East specifically, while other factors could come into play (Polar Vortex) if the La Nina effects control the playbook alone - it looks to be a lack of snow here until it subsides. When that will be, no one seems to know.

Nothing like a $15K snowmobile sitting in the trailer .....

Thanks in advance for doing your part to bring a mild winter and early ice out!

Boy Scout
 

Always try to do a good turn daily.

Just a reminder to be careful on what ice we do have.
 

"Dude. where's my car?"

Over here on Winnisquam ice is at the southern parts, center and northern parts are clear. Most winters I would see ice on the northern west shore starting to form. Nothing yet. Cold snap at the end of month into February should give us a ice in. But, for how long? Just a few winter back I remember looking over the ice with a cup of coffee and watching a mini van drive by


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Balmoral Bay
 

I need to walk out to Gansy Island asap to check on a couple of my off-grid installations, has anyone ventured out onto the ice there yet?
Thanks.

You'll be fine. You can even get in a little fishing on the way.

We did the complete circuit around the lake yesterday afternoon. For the most part, the lake is still wide open, with little sign of ice in most areas, except for the usual spots.

Alton Bay is relatively solid out to about Sandy Point. At least I hope so as there were a lot of people out on the ice. Looked like the runway had been laid out, several bob houses in place, and even several ATV's and snowmobiles out there. Not sure I'd want to use the bob house that was well out beyond the band stand. But I'm assuming those out there had bored holes and knew what the thickness was.

Also saw people and bob houses on Nineteen Mile Bay. But that was about it.

I'd like to ask the seasoned locals a question. Is there enough time for Mother Nature to do her thing before the Pond Hockey tourney? It starts 3 weeks from this coming Friday.

Thanks!
Tim

Alton Bay
 

Caution in Alton Bay: Paul LaRochelle, airport manager for the Alton Bay ice runway, has been out measuring ice thickness in the bay. He reported yesterday on an Alton Bay FB that around the floating bandstand and the plane parking area is 6 inches or so. Heading towards The river, the thickness thins quickly. Heading north from the bandstand, it also thins out as you head out, to only a couple of inches. He is urging extreme.

Dave

Yes...

Dan

Ice in is a long way off...
 

Well, it’s a start — part of the water to the north of Mink Island skimmed over last night. But it won’t hold, I fear. Going to warm up at the end of the week and rain. We need a significant change in weather pattern to have any hope of safe ice out my way....

Look'n at the three or four different BearCam views, there's some soft look'n skim ice out there. That ice-eater is doing its thing, carving out a big wide semi-circle of open water, surrounding that dock, they-ah, ups the north entry to that Bear Isl passage.

Question of the day: Is this look'n like a wussy win-tah or what?

Ya-know ...... removing my 450-lb aluminum and steel, 10'-wide, old boat lift with two pow'r pulls for pulling and steer'n it up a skinny wood ramp, all by my lonely little self is not getting any easier .... or any less challenging.

Will I still be doing this boat lift seasonal routine when I'm 80, in eleven years ... :eek:?

Here's hope'n the climate warms up just a wee bit, the lake never-ever freezes again, and global warming solves my problem-o! ..... :laugh:

All clear on East Bear. Some warming coming later in the week.

...... is 2021-Pond Hockey on thin ice again?
 

Lake Waukewan in Meredith, about one mile from Lake Winnipesaukee has ice and right now there's about 4-5 bob houses out there with people out on the ice, presumably ice-fishing. Is easy to see from the nearby road, and there's a very well constructed launch ramp for boats or bob houses, there, as well as car parking along the road.

In sometime like 2012 or so, the Pond Hockey Classic got relocated from Meredith Bay to this area on Lake Waukewan due to insufficient ice and it worked out totally fantastic.

So, who knows but maybe in 2021 it will once again be the year to get the puck out of Meredith Bay and slap shot it one mile away, to Lake Waukewan ........ score big on Waukewan! ......

Yes, they've moved to Waukewan twice now (I played there the last time they moved there). It was cool having everything in the lumber yard, but a pain walking across the street to get to the rinks (locker rooms were in the yard too).

Still curious as to how all of this is going to work with everything else going on. It'll be interesting for sure.

Winnisquam has been icing up all day. Have been watching it grow west to east. Yes, I have a lot of time on my hands this last few months


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Looking at the BearCam, yesterday's skim ice with the signature semi-circle ice-eater opening showing is today's all-open water. Ice yesterday and open water today..... how's about that?

Oh well, that's the way the banana peels, or the way the ice freezes, or melts, or something.

A couple days ago on craigslist, there was a Scat one or two person, bright yellow hovercraft for sale on what looked like Cow Island at something like $6000 or so. Have you seen that ad? Go to craigslist-NH-boats and do a search for Scat and it has five photos including one on the lake. Is that Cow Island? Those Scats are very noisy, very loud, and pretty difficult to control. They sort of roam around on the ice like there's not enough friction between the bottom of the hull and the flat ice surface.

It’s Mark Island, not Cow. The new residents on the end facing you own it.

I am told there was a skim from Sheps to the Bear Island mail dock yesterday. I can see a skim in front of our place on East Bear this morning. Not sure if it will survive.

See the same thing out in front of my place on the NW shore of BI - I look across at Moultonborough Neck.

All the ice that was out front this morning has cleared and there is a light chop out there - nice sunny day though otherwise.

The ice is forming at the mouth of Alton Bay. See www.winnipesaukeecam.com

All gone by us as well. It looks like the middle of next week before we are below freezing around the clock so I don't expect much to happen until then. I am sure some of the more sheltered areas will continue to build ice.

Splish splash
 

I’m starting to doubt we’re going to have a full ice-in this year. Mid 40’s and rain for the weekend isn’t going to do any good... As others have said, we need at least a week long very cold snap (single digits at night and below freezing during the day) to make any progress. And the days are getting longer.... If things aren’t locked in within a couple weeks, I’ll be skeptical we’ll get to safe ice in the larger parts of the lake.

Ice fishing seems to be in full swing in 19Mi/20Mi bay, even saw a truck parked out there near the beach. No idea how thick it is.

actually
 

Starting next Monday the 10 day forecast looks promising for ice formation.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/03254:4:US

That wind will hurt things a bit. Its going to be a bit breezier than it has been recently. I don't doubt we will get ice in, but its going to be late in the month.

ice
 

The fact that it's parked near the beach makes the last sentence moot. Let me know when there are six trucks parked in a circle out by Chase!

So, what is incredibly fascinating? Here's a fascinating piece of local weather info coming from the National Weather Service, www.weather.gov

Weather.Gov predicts 1/2" of ice/snow in Meredith on Saturday afternoon, and 4 to 8" of ice/snow in Waterville Valley which is something like 35 air miles, or something, north.

So maybe you want to drive your pickup truck up to Waterville Valley and bring home a truckload of ice/snow! ..... :cheers: ...... and build a snowman out on that 19 Mile Bay, lake ice. .... :laugh:
..................

6:55-pm update: Now it's saying less than 1/2" in Meredith and 6-10" in Waterville Valley. This all seems totally wacky!

Saturday, January 16, 2021 is free ice fishing day for this year.

A resident yearly license for age 68+ only costs seven dollars/year.

Ice-prognosticator
 

Well things have improved a little in the past few days and the temperature outlook is better too.

My Ice-prognosticating spreadsheet that uses forecasted temperature ranges and converts projected degree days to daily ice build suggests that we will have somewhere around 7-9 inches by Feb 6th.... Lots of other variables at play that will impact that too (wind and snow, for example). But it’s a reasonably good starting data point....

Pic is from yesterday morning.

ice thickness freezing formula
 

I found this interesting article... for those that want to do play with the calculations

1. Calculate the average temperature of the day by adding low temperature and high temperature and dividing by 2. Use degrees Fahrenheit. Now subtract that average from 32 degrees, the temperature at which water freezes. You have now just calculated what they call “freezing degree days.”

Example: If the low temperature today was 24 degrees and the high was 30 degrees, the average temperature of the day was 27 degrees. Subtract that from 32, and you get 5 freezing degree days for this day.

2. Based on studies, once a thin layer of ice film forms on a lake, it will add 1 inch of ice for every 15 freezing degree days in a 24 hour period.

Example: If we had a day with 5 freezing degree days, you would use the formula 5/15 = .33. On this day you would add .33 inches of ice, or 1/3 of an inch. But remember, this is after the first layer of ice forms.

This shows how long it can take a lake to freeze, even after a cold day.

With the temps this week, we have a lot of "freezing degree days" coming up!! -PIG

That’s the formula!
 

It’s less than perfect, but gives a good directional sense of how cold/for how long it needs to be to build ice. I used to just figure two weeks from after my part of the lake skimmed over (and held) and it was probably safe (defined by me as 7” or more of black ice at Cattle Landing). Typically that meant MLK weekend was the first available weekend to venture out. A bit late this year.

That’s the formula!
 

It’s less than perfect, but gives a good directional sense of how cold/for how long it needs to be to build ice. I used to just figure two weeks from after my part of the lake skimmed over (and held) and it was probably safe (defined by me as 7” or more of black ice at Cattle Landing). Typically that meant MLK weekend was the first available weekend to venture out. A bit late this year.

Meredith Bay
 

It looked liked Meredith Bay was all ice as far out as you could see. yesterday morning there was one guy ice fishing right in front of Lago

We have an ice out contest.

Determining when ice is "in" can be the subject of debate.

So... how about a contest to guess the date and time of the first motor vehicle that goes through the ice?

Depending on how things play out this may be a somewhat morbid concept.

The good news is the ice seems to be holding in front of my place despite the wind and with that layer of snow on it - it's iced over from my vantage point.

So hoping that in abut 3 weeks time it will be safe to get out to BI.

Wide open here on the mid northern end of Winnisquam. Any ice from yesterday is gone with today’s wind


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Newfound lake is looking good too.

Solid blanket of snow from my camera view.
No ice huts yet.

My neighbors camera that looks up the lake is down ;(

As long as it holds through this wind spell it should hold.

EDIT: Middle not frozen yet.

Saw the first truck on 19 mi today.

Here ya go...

We were socked in with what looked like would hold but this morning it is gone once again.

Gone Gone Gone
 

The strong winds are blowing the ice away. Gonna have to reset the ice-in countdown once it calms down again...

Ice in 2021
 

Wolfeboro bay was completely iced over two days ago and is almost completely open water today. So far, Lake Wentworth seems to be holding.

Wow is this because of the wind?

Wide open. Wind took care of what was here. Almost February, seasonal temperatures forecasted. Wondering if it will happen this year.


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This is my 20th winter on Lake Wentworth, the ice is set and will remain until late March at the earliest, barring a change in the sun (like supernova change), in which case, the skating will be the least of our concerns.

One calm night this week and there will be ice everywhere. Looking at the weather forecast, Tuesday night looks like an ice maker. 20 degrees and calm winds!

Jan. 20, 2020

Checking in this morning the ice\open water break point is about 1/3 the way between 3 mile and 5 mile islands from MB neck to Bear Island.

Got notification this morning on the pond hockey tournament at the beginning of February. Is this still possible, knowing the current forecast?


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....... that secret Grouse Point web cam!
 

Grouse Point probably has a super-secret, gated and code word protected web cam that's looking at Meredith bay and available ONLY to Grouse Pointers who are current with their condo fees, or something! ..... :laugh: ..... www.rocherealty.com/grouse_point_club/

View today from Belknap Point; some skim but a lot of open water toward the Broads. Mostly skim between Rattlesnake and West Alton.

Ice in
 

Winter Harbor skimmed over last night and held today. Hopefully it will thicken more tonight and hold for the rest of the winter.

Fingers crossed....
 

But there is more wind coming this week before the cold locks in for a while.

Broads
 

Sorry no pic but area between Smith Point and Rattlesnake/Sleepers/Diamond and as far as I can see is all ice covered or snow covered ice. Doubtful it is more than an inch or 2 as this just started solidifying yesterday afternoon and overnite. Finally had to turn dock bubblers on - latest ever

Meredith bay
 

How is Meredith Bay looking as far as ice? Any chance the pond hockey tournament will be there at the end of next week? Or are they most likely resorting to Waukewan at this point?

I went up there on Saturday to do some recon, and the bay was skimmed over. I wasn't sure if it made it through all the wind this weekend, but yesterday someone posted this on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/1326960073/...9079726727202/

Hoping it holds. It's going to be a much different tournament this year...

Pond Hockey 2021
 

According to their web site, the pond hockey tournament was cancelled for 2021. Like is below.

https://www.pondhockeyclassic.com/ph...rney-cancelled

This bulletin is for the Lake Champlain tournament only.

Jeeesh....
 

Nothing like not even reading the link you posted....:rolleye2:

Sorry folks. My Bad.

Looks like Pond Hockey is marching ahead...??
 

...there's a large area of ice staked off where it appears the rinks will be set up. This morning, there is a small tractor snow-blower and a couple of walk-behind snow blowers clearing the ice, presumably for the rinks. I guess one could conclude that the ice is safe in that area.

While there is ice from Meredith down to The Weirs, the small amount of snow cover makes it difficult to determine how safe it is...my guess is, not very. For example, there is a large oval expanse of open water off of the Upper Mile Point Road neighborhood in Meredith bay, (next to Meredith Marina, heading towards Weirs). Seems that while it might be safe along the shoreline, (assuming no dock circulators), the "middle" is still very risky.

See attached link from Facebook - Marine Solutions is out there and he is measuring 5 inches of black ice in all of Meredith Bay

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...57081691007378

We don't have any temps above freezing for the next week so we should easily pick up a few extra inches of ice.

Yes, Marine Solutions posted a great video. 5" of ice. With upcoming temps and doing the Freezing Degree Days equation, it looks like by hockey time there could be 9" of ice.

Things are looking up...
 

Hope tomorrow’s wind doesn’t set us back. But the cold is going to surely help a lot. Going up to Pittsburg this weekend where it’s well into the negatives at night....

..... a skinny tractor for skinny ice?
 

For the last three or four years the Pond Hockey set-up on Meredith Bay used a brand new, medium sized orange Kubota tractor with a snowblower out front that could hurl the snow a long, long way. Those Kubota tractors looked like they could weigh maybe 4000-lbs.

This year, probably due to the relatively thin ice what's out there is what looks like an orange 1971 Ariens Manorway lawn tractor with a snowblower out front which could weigh maybe 1000-lbs with the snowblower included.

Different year ...... different ice ..... different tractor ...... is that a 1971 Ariens Manorway lawn tractor ........ anyone in the know?

Not sure of the tractor, but everything is different this year. 130 teams (down from 275) and 14 rinks (down from 26). No spectators, no vendor tents, no beer garden, no live music. Games scheduled back to back. Get in, play your 2 games and leave. Going to make the best of it though and still have fun.

What may not be so good for the local economy wont be a bad thing for the health of the lake. I guess the Litter Bugs {SLOBS} will have to to leave their trash at the end of their driveways on trash Day!

Overnight, we iced in. With another night of cold on its way and toss on a foot of snow Tuesday, we may just get a month of ice. Careful, the snow is going to hide thin ice areas


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Why do you say only a month? I think it will be a minimum of 2 months.

Regarding snow, snow insulates too, so the ice may not thicken as much or as fast once the insulation blanket is dropped.

Supposed to get 17" in MA (Worcester County). Currently shows 9" at our place in NH (Grafton County). And both keep going up. Last night was definitely the coldest. House was 14F inside last night.

Here is my NH weather station numbers for last month. Blue bar is High - Lo Temp, Red Bar is High-Lo Dew point.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...453245_b_d.jpg

Why a month you ask? Growing up we were always told no one on the ice after February. We use that same rule with our children and now grandchildren. Less stress


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I thought you meant Ice-Out, not Ice-Off :)

Yeah, March can always get some really warm days.

We cross country on the lake. When things start to warm up we’ll just stay very close to shore. Where it’s no more than waste deep.

Braun Bay, Maybe...
 

Well, the Big Lake isn’t there, yet...!

;)

..... ice safety, swimmer's NOODLE BELT!
 

Cross-country skiers can probably be supported by ice that's something like two inches thick if the two inches is high quality ice as opposed to mushy ice. The skis distribute the weight but you got to move along smoothly without slapping the ice or pressing it with a ski pole.

It all goes great until you break through to the other side!

Did you know that a swimmer's noodle makes an excellent waist belt, ice safety pfd-style belt by wearing it as a waist belt with a rope threaded through the center hole and you can wear it under your coat, unseen, so's you don't look like a dweeb. .... :laugh:

Like no kidding ....... you didn't know that ..... did you! ..... a foam noodle belt will support you in icy cold water and make it easier to crawl back up and onto the ice shelf ...... or something! ..... :D ..... It will also ride up to under your arm pits and support a deceased frozen dead body after succumbing to the 34-degree cold water. Your hands can freeze up in like ten minutes, leaving them useless to use, but it can take 60-75 minutes to actually die from cold water immersion so it helps to wear a noodle belt, carry self rescue spikes and a whistle.

Since my post of this picture got shut down by some folks taking it off the rails, I’ll try again here. Yesterday’s view from the MODIS satellite....

BT

Sorry
 

BT, sorry your initial thread got hijacked. You've been posting these pictures for ice in and ice out for as long as I can remember. Thanks for your efforts.

Back to the ice in 2021 topic.

Dave

Looks like my ice eater is doing it’s job on Sebago....

I heard on WGME someone went through the ice in Tuftonboro. I assume its Winnipesaukee, could be wrong. Anyone know what happened.

http://www.nhfishgame.com/2021/02/01...-winnipesaukee .... Sunday Jan 31, 2021, at 11:10 a.m., off Elkins Point, Tuftonboro

"Official" Ice In
 

Emerson Aviation called ice in around 1100 on February 1st, 2021. The count now begins to ice out! Can't wait.

I can only imagine how horrifying it must be to go crashing through the ice and into the water. At least the recover Vehicles/Equipment so hopefully it doesn't pollute the lake. I'm glad no one died. Anyone on here ever go through the ice? What was it like?

Falling through the ice .... ice self rescue ...... www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVXJQq41tTA ... 2:34 ... March 19, 2018 ... Newfoundland, Canada

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yVXJQq41tTA" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

If a moose breaks through the ice, can it do a self rescue? No, I've seen a photo of a dead moose floating upside down in a hole in the ice on Moosehead Lake, Maine with an eagle perched and having a bite to eat.

If a polar bear breaks through the ice, can it do a self rescue?

....................

Just like realty tv is usually not real, here's my two cents on the self rescue video.

It looks like the water is only about five feet deep or so, so the victim is able to easily stand on the bottom and jump upward. This victim got up and out way too fast, for it to be realistic, and made it look way too easy. It was too easy for him to get onto the ice, there, with no ice picks. Wet gloves and a flat ice surface are a big problem making it very difficult to have any pulling traction and pull yourself up onto the ice.

It is very possible the victim is wearing either a wet suit or a dry suit under his outer clothes.

This video has some type of association with the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary, the RNC, the local provincial police with 545 sworn and civilian members and a budget of 48.5-million dollars, as of 2013.

Snowmobile Through The Ice In Tuftonboro
 

This very short video confirms that the snowmobile went through the ice opposite Pine Point, not Elkin's Point. The video starts pointing north, right at Pine Point. The video then pans to the left (westward) where Elkin's Point (and their big white boathouse) can be seen. Mr. Duncanson was very lucky.

The sled and Mr. Duncanson's ice fishing gear were brought up from a depth of 30 feet.

For a diver to go down 30' into 34-degree water like that, alone with no second diver, they must probably wear a dry suit with extra warm long underwear underneath, a flashlight, and a very heavy weight belt with a quick release. Gotta be seriously determined to be doing that in the 34-degree water.

Watching the NH F&G divers on tv, on North Woods Law, there's always like four divers and four more people, nearby, and it's a big team effort as opposed to one lonely diver, going down.

Ice Diving
 

Normally, a second diver would be preferred during ice diving, however, for a fairly simple recovery, it's not really necessary. You'll notice in the picture that the diver has a yellow rope attached to him while diving. A rope tender on the surface holds the other end of the rope. The diver and the rope tender communicate with each other via rope pulls. The diver has a main breathing tank and regulator and a backup tank with a second regulator. If the diver needs help getting back to the surface, he gives the rope a series of tugs and the rope tender pulls him back up.

Ice diving always requires appropriate thermal protection which is usually a dry suit, thermal underwear, hood and gloves.