Hot Market ... Will Waterfront Values Drop?
 

The waterfront property market on Winnipesaukee is obviously very hot with lots of demand and little inventory. Some of that demand is fueled by Covid with many people looking to move to NH. At some point all hot markets cool off, but I was curious if there is any evidence of what tangibly happens in a market like this. Do waterfront values just not increase as fast? Stay flat? Or have there been instances when they actually decline significantly?

Go to Zillow and Realtor.com and search Laconia Gilford Meredith from 700k to 2M. You will see the market has slowed and asking prices dropping.

Back in 2007 after the mortgage crisis prices dropped significantly but that was nationwide not just exclusively waterfront.


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I think prices may have peaked by September. Properties are now staying on the market longer, and some prices are even beginning to drop. It was a seller's market, but it slowly may start becoming a buyer's market as the inventory starts to rise.

Hopefully this won't be the beginning of the end of the current market. Last time this happened in 2007 turned into a long, ten year issue for all the financial markets (as well as the Real Estate Market).

A healthy Real Estate Market will mean a regular "slow" increase in prices year after year. Prices increasing at 2% a month can't be healthy for the long term and can spread havoc thru out the economy.

We're likely closing in on another mortgage crisis as the economic recovery won't happen fast enough to forestall a flood of foreclosures. With lots of foreclosures comes many homes on the market at discounted rates (at least compared to present ones).

Property in the lakes region always slows this time of year and this year has seen a big run up in prices. I think people are just throwing properties out there right now to see if people will bite.
Prices are absolutely over inflated but from what I've seen, people are flush with cash and many sales are going through with cash offers so I don't see foreclosures being an issue.
It will be an interesting spring market. I'm just happy I can sit back and watch.
I think the only thing that will negatively affect the real estate market would be a recession.

I will predict right now that it will depend on the results of the election. It can be another 08-09 or it can be a boom.

In conjunction with the election the virus will also be a factor


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Exactly.

House just went up next to me that was delisted for legal reasons and just relisted. It was listed for $1.25 million. They had 14 viewings the first day the first time around. I suspect it would have sold for $1.35 million -ish. We’ll see what happens this time. I saw several drive by yesterday.

It’s a decent property.

One house up in Hebron 3 season cottage. With HOLDING TANK. No way to have septic. Listed for $2.0 million. Way way over priced. They sold it for $1.7 million. That was like 4 weeks ago. It’s a very nice location with water on 3 sides and good sun exposure.

Prices might be lower because people are asking for way more.

I use % of town appraisal vs actual sold price as a gauge. Lots of stuff has consistently SOLD (not asking) for around 60% over appraisal. I use 2019 appraisals because some towns have recently applied the “COVID” markup.

There is pent up demand for real estate. Young people have been renting in the big cities and sitting on the sidelines. They were enjoying their single city life until Covid hit.
After 7 months of sitting in their 600 sq ft apartments with nothing to do they are on the move out and their wealthy parents are helping out with the costs.
Now that the can work remotely they can live anywhere.
The biggest problem is many of their parents are reluctant to move and new building has slowed, the result is a shortage of properties for sale.
I think what you're seeing now is the homes that are being listed are way over priced because these people are not really motivated to sell unless they can score an enormous profit.
Obviously historically low interest rates help.
Many baby boomers are taking advantage of these low rates and a run up in property values to refinance their homes and help their kids buy homes.
My brother inlaw just did this and bought a home for his daughter in cash.

Not that there is EVER a good reason to tap the equity in one's house, but now especially is playing financial suicide in order to float more debt on historically low interest rates.

Have no sympathy for people that do this kind of stuff and find themselves later on down the line financially ruined as a result. It's not a matter of if - but when.

That is pretty pessimistic. I happen to disagree. The two factors as mentioned are the virus and election. One election result will not have a negative affect on the real estate and financial market and the other more than likely will. As far as the virus it depends on the quickness of a vaccine and the severity of this current “wave”. The end result is it in my opinion is not inevitable but possible but not probable.


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Everyone reads the tea leaves however they choose BUT I don't base this on either the election results or what happens with this virus.

Low interest rates and the very accommodating Fed can't be sustained forever.

Fed is out of options so anything they do will put pressure on interest rates and thus the entire credit market. Housing prices will have to fall as the glut of cheap credit will dry up and many will be financially wrecked as a result. For the monthly payment culture debt becomes far more expensive, all that debt being carried becomes worth more than face value, their borrowing (aka buying) power shrinks and the entire house of cards starts to come down. Those leveraged the most are the first casualties. Roll the dice if you wish, no freaking way I would at this point in time. I don't think it will matter who wins the election the day of reckoning is coming and there is no avoiding that.

The only difference will be how bad it will be. I think it will be very difficult to grow out of this and anyone that thinks we can tax our way out of it just needs to go back and take basic economics for dummies. The virus is a non issue - at this point it is pure politics.

Shall be interesting!

We certainly are reading the tea leaves differently. The fed already stated rates will hold where they are for the forceable future. If there is another shutdown from the virus the market will be crushed especially in urban markets.


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Like I said we shall see what happens. I'm not sure I'm 100% right on this and I don't think you are 100% wrong. ;)

One thing I would not be doing however is taking any equity and turning it into debt. Refinancing yes, piling on, hell no!

I agree. I see a lot of people forgetting what we (should have) learned from the Great Recession. A friend of mine just refinanced and extended his mortgage out to 30 again to lower his bill. He'll be 78 when he pays off his house. We, on the other hand, always reduced our term when refinancing. Housie One will be paid off when I'm 55...if not earlier.

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debt management
 

On the other hand, banks often encourage mortgage or HELOC because it is strong collateral. Debt management is a skill by itself, of course, not taught in most schools. When the tax code changed to disallow interest deductions on everything except real estate (no more car loans, CC interest, etc) that pushed a lot of people into tapping home equity, inappropriately for many. I can see, for example, swapping a 6% non deductible loan for a 3% HELOC; other assets to cover the debt should be in place, though, right? And a plan to cover cash flow when you suddenly aren't drawing a full paycheck.

Agreed that the virus will be a factor. Paradoxically, the virus has driven up lake prices. So good news on the virus could lead to bad news on the value of waterfront homes.

When there's blood in the water the sharks will be circling.
That blood won't be mine! :)
I'm finally debt free and want to stay that way.

I think the economy will take off as soon as we get the virus under control, regardless of who is president. There is a lot of pent up demand and this virus is holding us back, JMO.

For what its worth, I am in the construction industry with a Fortune 500 company that is not worried about the economy tanking or which way the election goes. I had to redo my budget for 2021 three times because I was being told I was not forecasting in enough growth for them. Granted we play mostly in the industrial/commercial markets, residential and mixed use developments are a growing segment.

I don't have all the warm and fuzzies about what is to come, but there are people a lot smarter than me saying things are going to be great for a while so I guess I'll just take their word for it.....

Wow...
 

...got one of those "JUST SOLD" cards in the mail from a local realtor. A place on Waukewan for $260K ABOVE asking price.....

Great for the sellers, but that is just nuts...

What property was that? I'm on Waukewan and I'm always checking sales but I didn't see that one.Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Card says, "28 Brookside Lane, Center Harbor"

Where from?
 

I'm very curious where these buyers are from--That's a huge overbuy and would add considerably to the down payment if a mortgage is involved because of the loan to value ratio requirements Can 't see that somebody local would be in a rush to move, at least not a $200K rush. Of course, that buyer info isn't easily available in many cases.

It very well may be a "cash" buyer and an appraisal or a down payment would be irrelevant.

I certainly would question the expertise of a realtor that recommended pricing my home so far below what it ultimately sold for. I understand it's a crazy market and that any given realtor might miss the mark on the low side due to a level of uncertainty...but $260K worth of uncertainty?

How do you know it was an "overbuy" and not a property that was priced too low?

How do you know the value was low without seeing an appraisal?

What difference does it make where the buyers are from?

Voter Demographics?
 

1) Someone like myself, watching my Lake Winnipesaukee acre quickly being eroded at the lake's edge--and could sell for two or three million dollars and want a quiet spot on Lake Waukewan--wouldn't blink at this "overbuy".

2) Wealthy city apartment dwellers, facing a Governor's directive to move to a nursing home might jump at an "overbuy" to move here.

The goal isn’t to price it close to market peak. It’s to get the highest sold price. That realtor might be a genius. In this market it’s hard to know what things will fetch.

Here is the link. it sold for just over 2 million

https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/.../pid_37873814/

Just received my 2nd half tax bill from Laconia. Increase of $800 from first half. Evaluation raised 90k. Who should I thank or be angry with?

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Your first tax bill is estimated (half of the amount from the total for the previous year. ) The second bill due now is the balance of what your new tax bill is. So you actually pay a little more because you really didn't pay half of THIS year's bill in June. So when taxes go up, that increase is all reflected in the second half of the bill. Does that make sense to you?

Mine was a 1,000.00 less than the first half

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Shoosh! [emoji106]Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

All comes out in the wash. Just means I overpaid for the first half. [emoji23]

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Tax Bill
 

I haven't yet received my 2nd tax bill for property on Bear. I think it was late last year, also.

Anyone have a notice yet?

Got ours from Laconia on Friday and it actually was $50 less than the last bill.

Laconia and Gliford Taxes
 

Both Laconia and Gilford have new, lower tax rates.

https://www.laconiadailysun.com/news...nt=read%20more

That's almost always what happens. But over the next few years watch it creep up again.