Official Ice-Out 2014 Thread
 

This is the official 2014 Ice-Out Thread. If you reply to this thread all of the information about this year's ice-out will be easily accessible to our forum friends.

Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. Did I say pictures? We love your pictures.

The Ice-Out page is up at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm. There you will find all of the images to watch the ice melt as well as links to special ice out features such as Saunder's Bay daily picture with information about previous year's ice out. (I will post link when it is available)

Ice-out has occured in recent years from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam.

Many anticipate a late ice-out this year, so we need some rain dancers... and some warming up to prove them wrong. :D


Island Girl

....... Make Lemonade

Let me be the first to post, there is still a lot of ice out there :rolleye2:

However it's amazing how much the ice receded around the docks at Sheps just between Saturday and Sunday. It's definitely started.

27 inches reported on 19 mile bay today....

I was thinking you were waiting until April 1st.....just because you could....

Trek out to Bear Island tomorrow
 

Should I wear a life vest? After all this rain and higher temps - has this made a dent in the ice at all? :rolleye1:

The shoreline is probably the questionable part, if you can find a place to get on and off the ice you should be OK. Always a good idea to wear your ice picks when venturing on to the ice.

thanks BIS - a new adventure every day - that's what keeps us young :laugh:

http://i44.tinypic.com/1499wms.gif Frosty, I just noticed that you are fairly new to posting on the forum and glad you have joined us. Have fun and enjoy the Winni Forum while making many new friends.

Where there is a will there is a way to do it. Just do it safely and enjoy yourself doing it. I heard from ice fishermen that the ice is still very thick close to 18".:)

Have fun

http://i54.tinypic.com/2e56yqf.gif

Regardless of the date, with two-plus feet of ice offshore on April 1, there's gonna be some sizeable 'bergs moving around and causing all sorts of dock damage.

I'm just hoping we see Ice Out before June!

I hope I'm wrong, but we could see a lot of damage over the next few days.

Going outside, the sound of rushing streams is everywhere. The dog can't figure out what's going on. She just stands there and keeps looking around trying to figure out what it is and where it's coming from.

Unfortunately, this means the lake levels will probably start rising quickly, while everything is still locked in 24+ inches of ice.

Let's hope the edges and rocks open up as quickly.

In the 24 hrs prior to 10:00 AM 3-31-2014...
 

The lake has only risen by about an inch and a half in that 24 hr period. Perhaps by not getting as much rain as had been predicted, damage caused by the lake rising while still ice covered will be minimal.

Back to ice out itself. ;)

Still Solid
 

April 1st and still solid as a rock on Welch island. No signs of melting anywhere around my dock or the edges even after all this rain...:emb:

WOW, What a difference in less than a week.

Ice Color
 

I have only been watching ice for 14 years.... young compared to some of you. It has been my observation that the color of the ice in the spring tells a lot about the condition of the ice. A foot of gray punky ice can go very fast with a little rain, some warm temps and wind. The crystals bang against each other and dissipate.

The lake can appear to be socked in, but a very dark gray and then be completely liquid in two days. This happened about 6-7 years ago when the great predictor said it would be two more weeks and it was two more days.

While I agree that we will be later than average this year.... I am watching the color as an indication over thickness. Now.. if I saw two feet of solid black ice... I would be thinking June! :coolsm:

Ice Color
 

Yes IG color does give us a good hint as to what is going on. I have posted this in prior years, from Minnesota but lake ice is lake ice. It is normal for the last stage go quickly with a strong wind, leaving those clinking "ice candles". We are quite a ways from that but lots of bright sunny days can make quick work.

http://www.minnesotawaters.org/group...lake-ice-melts

Melt melt melt
 

Panorama looking south across Paugus Bay. Christmas and Pixie Islands on the left and the start of the Weir's canal on the right.

More progress...;)

Clinking Ice Candles
 

I just love that clinking sound... for the lovely sound it makes and for the promise it brings.

Silver Sands should be up soon...
 

Barry Uicker just tweeted out the Silver Sands daily picture...

http://nhboat.com/Nhboat/Features/ice/ice-out2014.htm

Hahaha -- I was checking almost daily, and just saw it was up and was going to post it here. One of my favorite annual sites...

Ice out?...I'm not waiting
 

Since today was my first official day of retirement and my 47th trip around the sun, I figured I wasn't going to wait for ice out to enjoy the lake.
Life's too short...bring on the summer fun!!!:cool:

You are too funny, PBFF! Did you get wet at all?

Where's your life vest? :laugh:

Happy Birthday!!!
 

Oh Ya!!! Looks AWESOME!!! That's the best picture of you I've ever seen!!! Happy Birthday you old bastard. I still have 3 on you!!

The Breeze
Wave 'cuz i'll be wavin' back:D

nice!!!!
 

PBFF - congratulations on retirement and your bday, what a perfect way to celebrate both! I am soooooooooo envious :)

cheers, and bring on ice OUT -PIG

I'll be snowmobiling tomorrow while I wait for ice out and you're drinking a beer while floating on the only open patch of open water there is on Winni.................I wanna party with you!!

I'll be dumping the jetski's in on saturday

photo contest entry?
 

Congrats on retirement! Great picture. If you have a Facebook account, you might want to enter the picture in the Common Man's "Show us some SPRING" contest.

I know some don't want to hear it, but the Lakes region has the chance of a bit of snow and sleet tonight.

According to the Lakeport Dam data phone the water temp has risen to 37degrees. Hoping that this will start to melt the lake from the bottom up. :)

Last year today we were at 38-39 degrees, so not too far off...lots more to melt this time.

Saw your photo on WMUR's U Local. It was on the 5:00 news. What a great photo!

I was on a coffee ride and just saw two guys in a small aluminum boat chopping away at strips of ice coming out of the Weir's canal behind Liliuokalani's Ice Cream. They were able to cut two strips in half, not sure why.

I did notice the ice is melting nicely heading south through the canal towards Paugus. I'd say it melted a good 300 yards since yesterday with a large area of dark ice pointing south.

Lily Pond is still locked in from coast to coast. Lily can be a good compass for the big lake. I think Lily is usually 10 days ahead of Winni.

There doesn't seem to be much change in the past week for most of the ice pack, and I'm surprised that the ice isn't receding much from the rocks along much of the shoreline.

But I suspect that there may be changes happening underneath that we can't see. I.e., melting from the bottom up.

The last ice fishermen in front of my house last weekend reported 25-26" of ice. Now that the season is over, anyone out there with an auger who can periodically report for us? (as long as it remains safe to be on the ice)

Wolfeboro made NJ paper
 

Our local paper The Record (which covers Bergen & Passaic counties) in northern NJ has a picture of interest each day on Page 2. On Wed. the attached AP photo of Opening Day in Wolfeboro, NH was featured. Made me homesick.

http://i511.photobucket.com/albums/s...ps1bc30fe0.jpg


This evening 4/5

The ice is very thick. even on the edges in front of the weirs and in paugus bay. over a foot. BUT the ice is melting from the sun, you can see the air bubbles.....Another week or two

I saw/heard you heading onto the bay between my house and Pixie Island just around 6 tonight. (unless that was two other nuts!);)

That was me! Beautiful evening on the water.

While there has been some melting during the afternoons this past week, it's gone below freezing each night and everything locks up again. It's going to be a slow process...

I hope the melting from below is going faster

Sleepers Island
 

Does anyone know what ice is like from Smith Point Marina in Alton to Sleepers Island?

I have a client that wants to see a property out there on Tuesday morning.

Any help advice is appreciated!

Smitty

Glenn Smith
Bean Group
603-233-7226

Ice Out
 

Me, too! Nonetheless, I just changed my air res from May 3 to May 10 and am hoping that will be sufficient.

There were lots of snowmobilers on the bay today, even F&G came in and back out again. I think if find a good solid access point you should still be on atleast 2 feet of ice.

From atop Tower St. at the Weirs you can see there's a strip of open water going from Governors Island to Eagle Island then half-way to Spindle Point.
It's nice seeing some blue amongst the white.
Today's sun and wind helped. Tomorrow's warm sun followed by heavy rain Tuesday will help even more. I think by Thursday-Friday some of us will feel a lot better about a late ice out.

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I'm not as brave as PBF. I had three layers on top plus Uggs and mittens!
http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d1...psfde6b031.jpg

Darker Ice
 

It looks like the rain may have done some damage. Rattlesnake cam shows some significantly darker ice then 2 days ago. There is hope :)

Ice out voyeur
 

Just joining the thread

Starting to change in the Broads.
 

I talked to a F&G officer in Alton yesterday, and he said that he was in the broads on a snowmobile earlier in the day, and that there was some evidence of honeycombing out there. Don't know exactly where he was at, just in the broads. I would suspect he was on the eastern end of the lake, maybe just out from Alton Bay. He did have his snowmobile in the back of the truck and was in the parking lot at the F&G in Alton bay.

Maybe there is hope:rolleye1:

Point of Reference..
 

This was taken exactly 1 year ago today (4-9-13) from Ellacoya State Beach. I have another picture in the series that shows the fisherman watching as a Loon glides by their boat.

I don't recall the actual ice out date for last year, but we don't look too close as of yet!

Attachment 9146

Snake Eyes starting to show signs of open water
 

Around the docks, looks like a small amount of open water. Ice looks darker by the day.

The strip of open water I mentioned off Governor's Island has widened with the wind. The lake is up over 3" in the last couple of days. Today was chilly but it warms up tomorrow and we may be close to 80 degrees by Monday.
Smile...;)

Not so promising yet, there are some signs of the shoreline receding, but still looks like a lot of white ice out there. My guess is 3 weeks from today the dock will be going back in.

Good Guess!
 

Based on what I am seeing on Welch, I think your guess is spot on!!

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) has not given in yet but it won't be long...she's just about ready to go!

Dan

It it is anything like any of the lakes/ponds I have been watching this year, once it starts to go, it will go quick. Most have gone from full white snowy ice, to nothing in about a week.
IMO the May 12 record is not in jeopardy. I think it will be right around May 1.

Web Cams
 

I have been watching a lot of the lakes web cams paitiently for Ice Out.
I did notice that Island Radio's Rattlesnake Island cam (http://rattlesnakeisland.net/cam.htm) and Bear Islander's main web cam (http://www.bearcam1.com/) are not sending any updates. The Paugus Bay Cam (http://www.overlooker.tzo.com/) is not connecting and may be down too.
Power or internet issues? I miss these cams as they are good for tracking ice out along with all the other ones. Any ideas as to why they are down?

Here's a pic from my web cam showing some shoreline finally giving way on right side of the pic. The rest is just water sitting on top of the ice around the breakwater with a lot of solid white ice everywhere else...

Dan

for your entertainment while we wait for ICE-OUT...
 

while official ICE-OUT is defined by the Mount being able to make it to all ports-of-call... I declare a mini-ice-out which is when the Alumacraft aka ice-breaker can make it to our ports-of-call (Y-Landing and the east side of Pine Island).

Unfortunately the PI webcam is down (again), so I'm flying a little blind, but based on the other lake webcams it looks like we should be good to go next weekend!

Bear Islander put together a great time-lapse video from our webcam in 2008 and you can see us land about the 7 second mark on the 19th of April and then leave the next day...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUC2tbOjfyM

melt melt melt -PIG

This is the current view from my webcam. I'm not sure if those dark spots are standing water on top of the ice or what, but they are directly next to or over the rocks we have out there.

But that's definitely floating ice, so there's that, and today is the first day I've seen the beach since October. It's slow, but it's happening. :)

(this is channel between moultonborough bay and green's basin if you don't remember my post from a few weeks ago)


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Might help if I attach the picture. Oops.


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Looks to be pulling away from the shore. Still a while to go, but any hope, is still hope!

4/7/3014 - Varney Point Rd Left Looking at the Pres Range
 

The wind is working its magic. The temps dipping down in the 20's is working against them, though.

Stevens Pond in Manchester was officially iced out yesterday and that is typically a two week indicator for Winni. Here's to hoping for some warm sunshine and strong winds.

I was talking to friend who was out on the lake snowmobiling yesterday afternoon and while the edges are giving way, he said he cut a couple holes in Sanders bay and there is still 18"- 20" of ice...

Near 80 degrees on Monday followed up by a day of rain should do a number on it...

Dan

A lot darker today, or wishful thinking?

I use Stevens Pond as my indicator as well. I have seen it be as much as 3 weeks apart from Winni.

Yup...because it's cloudy.

Hasn't one of the indicators for ice out for Winni been Lily Pond in Gilford?

Stevens pond is almost always about the same day as the pond across the street from my house which was almost out today.I usually add about 2 weeks for Winni.I'll add a little for the excess ice and say.......April 29.

Very nice panorama shot.

Willand Pond in Dover is typically a 2 week indicator. It will be clear most likely tomorrow. I don't see this holding true this year with 2 feet still on the lake.

Very encouraging....
 

Today's High-Res Satellite photo....the process is underway for sure.

Yes it is usually two weeks after Lily goes out. My guess is it will be longer this year.

My pool has been a good two week indicator. Since 1999, I have always had the cover off by this date. Today, I went to check, it is at least 10 days out, maybe longer. It will be a May Ice-Out this year.

Ice-Out
 

I have been keeping track of Silver Lake in Hollis for the last ten years now in relation to the the big lake's ice-out. Silver Lake's ice was out this morning. If the last ten years hold true, Winnipesaukee will be next Friday. :D I hope! Snake Eyes is looking very promising!

I just went by Lilly pond and it's still locked up solid...

Dan

It's going to be a different ice-out from what we've been used to in the last few years. Most of the melting has been from the bottom up, and rather than receding from the edges, it seems to be going all at once, all over.

I sense that we will have ice pack one day, then it will soften/get porous, and disappear all at once when we least expect it.

I'm with RG...sometime in the next 7-8 days.

Let's just settle on another 10 days and ice out will be my Birthday present this year. Lol.

Sitting around, watching the ice melt
 

The "three week till iceout" indicator that I've used for over 20 years started showing last Monday, which would put iceout on April 28'th. The ice changed a lot this past week, and is starting to look gray. However, where it pulled away from the shore, there is a foot or more of clear ice showing. The lake level rose over a foot in the past week, and moving the ice around will accelerate melting. I wouldn't be surprised if it holds out till May 1'st, but don't think it will be setting records. If a new iceout contest opened today, I'd go with Monday, April 28'th.

LIFO and Candles
 

The ice between Ellacoya and South Welch appears to be on the Last In First Out track.

Looking out from Belknap Point, the ice in general is getting darker in color, evidence that the ice candles are forming. I expect a lot of color change in the next few warm days.

meredith weekender
 

If my math is correct, the 21st would be your birthday and mine. that was my official pick, let's see if it happens :)

Water Temp
 

According to Winnipesaukee Data Phone, the water temperature hit 40° Today! What a weird year. :laugh:

I think it will be 2 more weeks before Ice Out is Declared.
Top to bottom 4/12/14: Smith Cove looking outward, Fay's Boat Yard channel at Rack building, 4"-5" thick ice at Fay's gas dock

The 21st was my Mom's birthday and the most popular average day for ice out in my mind.

Ice Out Cameras
 

Anyone have current photos of ice around Bear Island? Bear Cam seems to be down right now. Power out?

GREAT progress today!!!

Big changes on Winnisquam this afternoon. Taken from Steel Hill resorts web cam just before 6 PM.

From Facebook:
 

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These are from the south end of Bear looking towards Mark Island.
There has been significant color change since I last posted and the shoreline is out a good 10+feet, however I still think it will be April 30 for an ice-out.

Dan, I noticed a big change this morning on Lilly. The shorelines and areas around the light stations have opened. The ice is very dark. This morning's heavy rain and tomorrow's warmth should accelerate the melting.

The lake will be up close to the bottom of my docks by Tuesday. The lake rise has been very fast. The ice has receded quite a bit along the bay.

Bass boat going in Monday...it won't be long before Paugus ice out is declared.

A strong wind makes all the difference...
 

A close-up of one "ice candle" resting on a 2x4—more "ice candles" in the background:

So exciting to see the ice give up. A great community of webcams and local pictures make it possible to enjoy it from CT while waiting to put the boat in. Here is my contribution today.

The next few days will be interesting. Very high temps tomorrow with lots of wind. I noticed the ice pack in front of my house moved significantly for the first time this morning. Unfortunately, this could also mean lots of damage as these large chunks of ice move around in the wind.

But mid-week we're going to have temps below freezing for a few nights. That will slow things down again.

Opeeche is almost ice free, but I think that is due to the flow from the dam, and large parts of Winnisquam ore open around the car bridge and along the shore on the way to Tilton.

Lilly Pond was really looking dark yesterday afternoon, but Saltmarsh Pond is still locked up.

Took a ride up to the lake today for the first time since October...the annual pilgrimage to rustle out any overwintering critters (none this year) and to get the process of opening the house started. My husband is a crazy, but he brought some ice back for inspection. Definite candling happening at the edges. Not sure how thick it is further out but we weren't going out there for a closer look lol.


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I just drove by Sunrise Lake in Middleton, between Farmington and Wolfeboro. Yesterday it was completely ice covered. Today there are large patches of open water and the ice seems to be disappearing fast. In fact there was more open water than ice. Quite a change from yesterday!

That is a wicked Cool Ice Breaker Boat you have there!!:laugh:

I told you he was crazy, LOL!


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I wanted to test the ice so I pushed my kayak onto the ice just in case it wasn't strong enough to hold me. Unfortunately, it still is. Once you get beyond the shoreline, the ice is still very strong and thick.

Going out on the kayaks and breaking through the ice is a blast. We spent 3 or 4 hours doing that one afternoon on Shellcamp. You just have to time it right, otherwise you can't get anywhere. We hit it just right last year and a huge section of ice was about an inch thick--enough that when the kayak got up on it, it broke through and you could shove the whole piece away from you and keep going. The people who saw us from shore must have thought we were nuts :emb:

I check monthly on several seasonal homes where I live for critters during the winter months, and some winters it has been a battle but this winter hardly anything disturb. Do you think it has anything to do with the harsh winter and the shortage of pinecones and acorns last fall.