Possible Storm Jan 12th
 

Since the thread involving the Jan 7-9 storm has been driven into a ditch I thought I would start this one involving the possibility of a storm in the Tuesday (late night) through Wednesday timeframe.

Below is a snippit of text from today's Boston NWS discussion page:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE DEVELOPING LOW WORKING UP THE COAST WILL
DEEPEN AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO OR JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS STILL SOME TRACK SPREAD AMONGST THE 00Z OP RUNS AS
WELL AS SOME ENSEMBLES...NAMELY THE GGEM WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE LOW WELL SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...WITH MORE CONSENSUS ON
THE STORM/S TRACK...HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL BECOME A
GALE CENTER /AT LEAST/ AS IT PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...THOUGH SUSPECT THIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER INLAND
LATER TODAY.

STILL EXPECTING MAINLY SNOW FOR MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST. HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE ONSHORE WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIX OR A PERIOD OF
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FURTHER UP THE COAST. AS WE SEE IT THIS MORNING...THIS LOOKS TO BE A
MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SERVED US WELL
LATELY...SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM THAT SOMETHING DIFFERENT MAY
HAPPEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.

So at this point, it doesn't look like anything big for the Lakes Region but we are still 3 days away.....stay tuned.

BT

I just watched the Boston weatherman and right now it looks like it could give us some plowable snow. Although I hope it doesn't affect the ice in progress.

From the Farmer's Almanac
 

8th-11th. Fair, colder.
12th-15th. Unsettled for New England. Foggy along the coast. More clouds over the Mid-Atlantic States.
16th-19th. Fair, then turning stormy.
20th-23rd. Major storm along Eastern seaboard; gales for most of the Atlantic coast.
24th-27th. Fair, cold.
28th-31st. Snow over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States

So, probably not a major storm.

And from Gray Maine...Long term
 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHOULD SEE SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MODELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO COME INTO LINE ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT THE GFS BEGAN TO BRING
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER WEST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THIS
TREND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR EVENT
FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
FAR SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE COULD SEE 6 OR MORE INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH SNOW
TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING.

SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS TO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME.
================================================== ==

As always, time will tell. :rolleye1:

Cool site to check out the latest animated computer models online.

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

NC Snow .. Topsail Island
 

So...

Who said it don't snow in NC at the ocean .. not I anymore

So far today about 3 inches-- expect 5 inches

The world has shut down, yes I mean shut down

The attached picture was shot this morning on the Marine Base at New River.

Base was closed (so no cheap food shopping) but the troops were training

From NWS this morning....

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO BE FURTHER
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. NOW APPEARS LIKELY THAT SNOW WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. IN ADDITION
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THIS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT FULL BLOWN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT THE THREAT IS WORTH
HIGHLIGHTING AS VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST SNOW WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
3 TO 6 INCHES. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FURTHER
NORTH.

BT

If you look at weather.com the NWS has Belknap County under a Winter Storm Warning with a prediction of 6 to 10 inches which would seem to contradict the NWS statement above. Who knows. If it's anything like the post Christmas storm where the highest totals were north and west of the prediction, maybe we'll be in the bullseye.

They're placing Belknap County in southern New Hampshire. This is from earlier in the discussion:

"WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN NH INTO A
WARNING...WITH ADVISORIES ACROSS SOUTHERN GRAFTON AND SOUTHERN
CARROLL COUNTIES."

I think they meant to write advisories for northern Carroll and northern Grafton Counties, as the southern portions of those counties are included in the warning. It looks like TWC got it correct when they entered things onto their website.

Winter storm warning for all of NH south of a line from about Lincoln to Conway. Winter weather advisory for the mountains.

Remember, these are all issued by people looking at computer screens. Expect them to be as sucessful as a person who attempts to explore the entire US by road, using only GPS for navigation. Yes, the electronic stuff works. But it doesn't replace eyes and ears very well, and it never will.

It also doesn't see mountains or know their quirky effects on weather as well as people do. Therefore... I would expect the mountains to receive warning-criteria snow amounts above a certain elevation. That is because we're expecting a windy system, and mountaintops tend to get enhanced snow from windy systems. In this case, I would expect east-facing (or northeast) slopes to pick up more snow than the surrounding areas at lower elevation.

Warnings for weather are generally not issued for the New Hampshire mountains as they are for mountains out west. Out west, you often hear of alerts issued for strong winds or heavy snow above a given elevation. That's because people actually live there, and there are roads. If they did the same kind of warning-issuing here, they'd need to keep the higher summits of the White Mountains in a near constant state of "High Wind Warning," and the term "Blizzard warning" would get really old after a while. So, do not expect warnings to be issued for the summits of your favorite ski areas or hikes.

Here at the lake, I see the possibility that whatever weather Rochester gets *could* come inland -- following the lake -- as far as Center Harbor -- as long as the wind stays coming from the SE or E. That would happen while the storm is still approaching. As it gets closer, I would expect wind to turn to the NE. As soon as it starts coming from the NE, that's when the Ossipees start blocking the northern end of the lake and shuts off the snow there.

I think Gunstock will do well, no matter what. I wouldn't be surprised if the summit gets a foot or maybe a little bit more.

5-6 inches on the ground over here in the Kennebunk's already. Need some snow for the skate skiing. I LOVE the Gunstock trails and how close it is to home.

Last time I was there skiing I had to stop and take a pit stop in the woods and go to the bathroom. Had a code brown:blush: Hard to duck walk with skis on. My wife still gives me a hard time about it.

Have to get my last fix before heading back to Asia for yet another long business trip:(

They are messing with us....
 

This comic seems appropriate for today as the talk of a dry slot appears in the forecast.

http://xkcd.com/831/

I ended up with 20" in Bow. :)

18" in Meredith
 

We had more than was reported......

I must have been in a "low snow spot" in Meredith as I only go 13", maybe 14".