2008 Derby Weekend Weather
 

It is starting to look like we could get two storms around the time of Derby Weekend, one Friday night and the other Sunday night. I had been thinking these would be small events or non-events, but they are both looking like Y1 to Y2 events right now. They are also looking like all snow events.

These two storms will again be at the worse time if you are driving up for the weekend and not hanging around afterwards. CLA points out in another thread that this winter is giving us storms at the times when folks are on the roads, either coming up for the weekend or driving home. It looks like this pattern will be continuing.

The weather will turn cold and be cold for both Saturday and Sunday, around zero on Saturday night.

Plan to come early and stay late so that you do not have to drive when the roads are bad. It helps the economy! :)

R2B

Just put a smile on my face :)

Hopefully this pans out.

Can we time these storms a little better. I really dont want to have to woory about plowing while I am worrying about catching the winning fish for the tournement.

Boy, was I wrong!
 

After spending some time this morning looking at the models, I have to say it will be much warmer than I expected this week. We will be 10 degrees or more above normal with temps, and any precipitation will be wet, not white during the week. Another icing event could be in the works, but I think the changeover will happen faster than it did with the last storm.

For those coming up for the derby next weekend, I am sorry that the news, and the weather, is not so good. However, it is great news for those struggling with home heating bills.

We could get colder for the weekend and we might get a storm, a snow storm, during the weekend, but that is only a 50% chance right now. Some models have the storm to our west while the GFS takes it out to sea, so if the models start to get it together and average their outputs, that could deliver a storm for us.

It is also possible the weather stays warm and we do not get a storm.

I had been thinking there would be a storm on Friday and another Sunday night, but that timing looks to be too early. It now looks something this midweek, something on the weekend and then something again midweek next week, around the 13th. The best shot at snow will come from the weekend event.

Time will tell!

R2B

Yea everything Im looking at doesnt say anything good. Not looking like a very good weekend :(

Hey it's still a week away. You guys know weather can change real quick. The temps, well maybe not. But as far as snow or a storm goes, I will wait until Wednsday to get bummed/nervous. I just want to know how much ice there is in Meredith bay right now. I am not worried about where I am fishing but if it is really only 9 or 10" at the docks that is not safe for the amount of people/sleds/trucks that that area sees.

Now that the secret is out about sinking an SUV to create an artificial reef/fishing structure, I see no reason to drive my truck out on Saunders Bay :D

Seriously though, my backup plan was to use my ATV with trailer to haul my group's gear out on the ice. I'm assuming that it won't be safe to do that on Saunders Bay or at Ellacoya this coming weekend.

Does anyone have info on ice conditions on Waukewan?

My sense is that the folks running the tournament are going to have a tough time making a decision on whether to go through with the tournament. It likely won't be terrible, but the conditions certainly won't be desirable. If I were running the derby, I think I would reschedule now for 2-more weekends out to allow folks to adjust their schedules. Time will tell.

That would suck. Especially for people like my brother, girlfriend and I who are flying in from Colorado. We missed it a few years ago because of that. I would be majorly bummed.

Im in the same spot although Im not coming up solely for the derby. BUT with all the warm weather and somewhat lack of snow, going to sort of kill the primary purpose for going up there.

Will still be a vacation from the kids so i guess I cant complain :)

BoulderBronco:

I empathize with you. However, it is better to be safe than sorry. Good Luck.

Not great, but better
 

This evening the weather forecast is for colder weather for mid-week than I thought yesterday and with more snow than predicted yesterday. It will still switch to rain from snow tomorrow evening and into Wednesday. However, the temps will return to normal for Thursday - Saturday and get colder on Sunday, possibly close to zero on Sunday night. We could see some snow Thursday through Sunday, but it does not look like a big storm.

Not great, but it looks better today than it did yesterday.

R2B

Thats good to hear, been watching the forecasts change to a little better winter weather. Looks like Saturday and Sunday should at least be nice and cold!

I can get 40 degree weather here in Florida, dont want to travel a 1000 miles to see the same!

Wind Chill
 

For those coming up, right now Sunday looks cold and windy, so bring protection for low wind chills for exposed skin.

R2B

Yup. Looks better than it did 24hrs. ago. At least the avg. temps will be below freezing. Maybe the lake can get one or two more inches of ice by the weekend. Let's hope for cold.

Ivw been watching the weather.com and accuweather.com forecasts today and have seen good changes. Earlier today weather.com was showing a high of 51 on Wednesday and its now much lower. Accuweather seemed to stay pretty consistent and still hasnt changed, they are still predicting mid 40's whereas weather.com is predicting mid 30's now.

What amazes me is it seems like weather.com changes it forecast from one end to the other every 15 minutes. Do they know what they are doing? I hope they are right where they are at now because it would be nothing but chances of snow while Im there and average temps below freezing.

Either way, still looks much better than yesterday, hoping it stays that way.

Snow
 

We have 5" - 6" of new snow here in West Alton this morning. It may change over to rain for a while before it ends, but the temp. here is holding at 32 - 33 degs for now.

Short answer
 

No.

We've all paid for the forecasts from the National Weather Service with our taxes, so I use them before any media outlets. Not that they're 100% accurate, but more likely than not they have a better feel for how local factors affect a forecast than the Weather Channel or Accuhell...whoops, I mean Accuweather.

I think this one really snuck up on the road crews. Our road in Meredith wasn't plowed by 6 AM. No big deal, but this is the first time this season it hasn't been plowed during a night/early morning snow event. 104 over to I93 was a mess. There were stretches of I93 between Meredith and Canterbury that I don't think had been touched yet. Of course, the only accidents I saw were in Concord and Manchester where the roads were clear. :rolleye2:

3rd biggest snowstorm of the season
 

This morning's snow snuck up on everyone. As Kevin Mannix on Ch. 6 said, even he didn't bring winter boots to work this morning, even though he is the weatherman. He just didn't think he'd need them.

At Black Cat we had 7.0" which melts down to 0.74". It is like cement; very difficult to move.

This is tied for biggest snowstorm since Dec. 20, and also ties for 3rd biggest snowstorm of the season.

The impact of this one is greater because (1) it was a surprise and (2) this is very heavy wet cement-like snow, unlike the other big storms we've had so far which were powder. This morning it caused a 30-min. power outage here. On the TV school closings I see that some districts are closed due to power outage also, even over on the Maine border.

It has now changed over to freezing rain here.

Kevin Mannix is now talking about tomorrow's storm having "enough snow to cause some problems" rather than the all-day rain that had been forecast until now. I haven't had time to check the models but given the way the cold air has surprised us today (by holding on) I think it's reasonable.

So how much snow did you get there in Meredith? Is it sleeting or raining, as it looks like it is from the radar?

update
 

Snowfall reports from around New England are on the WeatherCenter page... on the left-hand menu (near the top) click on "Rain and Snow amounts".

I signed in again to update my previous post about the 'surprise' element this storm has had. On the TV now, I see all the school opening delays have been converted into closings. The day started off with 2-hour delays in just about every district.. and now they're going across the screen as, "Now Closed."

That should provide an idea of what's going on with DPW/DOT operations, since school closings are usually based on reports from them.

Oh, brother
 

Now I'm going to have to listen to my brother (who lives in Gilford, where they're reporting 8 inches) about how "it must be nice to get paid to be wrong." Unfortunately there's no "ignore" button when it comes to brothers like there is on this site.:rolleye2:

Sweet. Looks like 8" in Meredith. Good for snowmobiling. Not so good for getting more ice on Winni. Did it rain on top of the fresh snow?

Black Cat isn't that far from Meredith, and most of the area averaged between 6 and 8 inches. It did change over during the last hour, but it was freezing rain, not plain rain.

Whenever the precip got heavy it was all snow, and whenever it lightened up, it went back to freezing rain/drizzle. That's a result of there being cold air aloft, and heavier precip pulls it down.

Rose, regarding the surprise element, you should've heard the guy at the National Weather Service when I called in to report my 7". He had a tone of resignation, and a *sigh* as he said 'thank you.' Not only were the amounts much greater than the 1-2" they'd predicted, but they were actually in the criteria for 'Winter Storm Warning'. And all they issued was a winter weather advisory, for amounts of 4-6". It being a government agency whose first mission is to protect life and property, they get all hung up on stuff like that, and will undoubtedly be reviewing the whole fiasco in a staff meeting sometime soon.

At least we have another chance to get it right for tomorrow's storm... no rest for the weary!

This is awesome!! Exactly what I wanted right before I came up. Im hoping tomorrows weather doesnt roll into tomorrow evening. My flight comes into Manchester at 845PM, just hope it doesnt get delayed

I'm really happy for my friend's 6-year-old daughter. In school last week her class read a story about a little girl who wore her pajamas backwards and put a spoon under her pillow to make it snow (and it did.) Last night I had dinner with them and watched as she came out of her room with pajamas on backwards and asked her dad for a spoon to put under her pillow, and went to bed.

Of course, she knew the forecast was only for an inch or two. This girl has great faith!

Babes on Sleds?
 

Is it possible that the infamous "Babes on Sleds" snow dance has really started to work? Or did they finally stop dancing, and now it snows? :confused:

This was a huge surprise. I fully expected a rapid change over to rain and temps into the 40's by noon. CLA is correct about the heavier precip pulling down the cold air. That is what happened. Quite frankly, I thought the air above would be warm, not cold. I believe that is where the NWS is likely to find the issue with their forecast.

The forecast trend is colder with each new discussion. Great news for the derby and other winter activities we have this time of the year. It will be mid-winter weather this weekend and into next week.

Get this snow up quickly. It is heavy now, but it will be impossible to move when it freezes. It is very wet!

R2B

You think thats bad. Try living on the Front Range of the Rockies. They never get it right. It can get so bad that they prdict 1-2 feet and we get 1 inch. Same happens in reverse. I remember a number of times where they were calling for a couple inches and we got 2 feet.

Our private forecast service here at work gave us an alert at 11:00 AM for rain changing to snow tomorrow night and 3-6 inches of snow. That forecast is for the North Shore of Mass, Danvers, Peabody, Topsfield area. Absolutely no one on the noon forecasts mentioned anything like it. Opinions Please!!

BT

Heavy, Wet Snow
 

We ended up with about 8" here in West Alton. It did change over for a time, but the changeover precip. here was rain rather than freezing rain.

The new snow is like wet concrete. Clearing our driveway, walks and stairs was a bear. The snow is so heavy I even decided to shovel off our roof. Our roof has a relatively low pitch and the weight of the snow, especially if we get rain tomorrow, would have been too high for comfort.

It is possible
 

A small to medium sized storm should move from west to east along a front tomorrow and tomorrow evening. It is possible that the front will be south of the Mass Pike, but the location of the front when the storm is near us is a big question.

If the front is to the south of the Mass Pike, then the area from Boston up through the lakes should get 3 to 6 inches of snow tomorrow night after a changover from rain.

I believe the lakes will get this amount, but right now I think the front will be north of the Mass Pike, near the lakes. If that happens, it will end as snow at the lakes and it should be all rain in the Boston area.

Given today's weather at the lake and in New England in general, it is clear that there is not complete understanding of what is happening with the weather this week. Therefore, confidence for specific events and specific locations is low. It will get cold for the weekend and Monday might be the coldest day of the winter. We are likely to have strong winds as well.

R2B

As I said earlier, weather.com and accuweather have been fairly different all week. Accuweather seemed to be the closest with last nights forecast. They are also showing more snow tomorrow than rain, but weather.com is still showing Rain/Freezing rain. Id be more inclined to go with the accuweather forecast right now. Weather.com seems to change its forecast right before it hits. Guess you cant go wrong there :)

WOW! Sounds like you have a well-trained bear! Do you loan him out?

On a more serious note... The National Weather Service in Gray just issued a winter weather advisory for the Lakes Region from 5 am tomorrow morning through 6 a.m. Thursday morning. This is for 3-6" of snow expected, starting as a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain and becoming all snow. I'm inclined to think there will be more than 3-6" because of what happened today, and also because the temp here hasn't budged above 32 all day.

If you have family in the midwest/southern USA, now's a good time to check up on them. The weather system responsible for our weather here today extends southwestward from New England as a cold front that is touching off an unusually severe round of thunderstorms and tornadoes. There is abnormally warm air ahead of the front, that is helping to fuel the thunderstorms and their tornadoes. The cold air behind the front is ours for the weekend.

More snow please
 

The more the better... afterall if it's going to be winter, might as well make it good for snowmobiling.

I too am a bit surprised at how much of a wild swing there has been in the weather forecast the past couple of weeks. Is it just the time of the year that makes the weather so difficult to predict?

With all of this snow activity, is this better or worse for the ice formation? I am new to reading how weather impacts the ice and to me, more snow / freezing rain is a good thing . The temps are colder than anticipated and with the precipitation, I would think that this weekend would be better than last weekend, am I correct in my thinking?

Thanks

depends
 

That depends when the snow falls, and what kind of ice is underneath it.

Last year, the weather turned extremely cold for weeks before major snow came. This allowed clear ice to form, which is stronger than ice formed from snow falling in the water. Clear ice also thickens more easily, because it allows heat to go right through it during a cold night. That's what happened last winter.

Once the ice was really thick (and clear), we started getting snow on top of it. Snow is a great insulator. It has air whipped into it. It is not white but reflective (the white color is because each snowflake reflects in different directions resulting in a blending of all colors = white.)

So when you get a big reflective blanket of snow on top of the ice it seals the lake's heat in, and seals the sun's heat out. It doesn't thicken as easily with snow on it, but it doesn't thin very well either.

This year most of the lake ice formed from snow. The cold weather came at about the same time as the snowfall, and so we have a white flaky ice that doesn't transmit heat very well (won't thicken as easily), isn't as strong as clear ice, and we've had a layer of snow on it for a long time which has sealed in the lake's heat.

This is the time of year when it's good to get snow on the ice because the sun is getting higher in the sky. Without snow on it, this year's lake ice would probably melt before any of us really had much of a chance to play on it.

it's actually looking pretty good for ice making. It's not going to get above freezing for the next 4 or 5 days according to weather.com. Maybe the ramp will freeze better and we can gain another inch or two of ice in the bay.

From what little I know I believe the snow cover prevents much more ice from forming, i could be wrong. But from my buddy who has been out on the lake since the beginning of January, says theres plenty of ice out there currently. There were some shady spots, but overall not bad. Im sure the locals will be able to provide better information :)

Read this post by CanisLupusArctos. He explains what can happen. I really want to know an updated ice thickness. Too bad I am 2k miles away.:(

CanisLupusArctos wrote:
That depends when the snow falls, and what kind of ice is underneath it.

Last year, the weather turned extremely cold for weeks before major snow came. This allowed clear ice to form, which is stronger than ice formed from snow falling in the water. Clear ice also thickens more easily, because it allows heat to go right through it during a cold night. That's what happened last winter.

Once the ice was really thick (and clear), we started getting snow on top of it. Snow is a great insulator. It has air whipped into it. It is not white but reflective (the white color is because each snowflake reflects in different directions resulting in a blending of all colors = white.)

So when you get a big reflective blanket of snow on top of the ice it seals the lake's heat in, and seals the sun's heat out. It doesn't thicken as easily with snow on it, but it doesn't thin very well either.

This year most of the lake ice formed from snow. The cold weather came at about the same time as the snowfall, and so we have a white flaky ice that doesn't transmit heat very well (won't thicken as easily), isn't as strong as clear ice, and we've had a layer of snow on it for a long time which has sealed in the lake's heat.

This is the time of year when it's good to get snow on the ice because the sun is getting higher in the sky. Without snow on it, this year's lake ice would probably melt before any of us really had much of a chance to play on it.

Excellent explanation, thank you!

On a side note, looked at Manchester weather tomorrow and it doesnt look good pretty late in the day and evening so I moved my flight up to come in the early afternoon. Im hoping to beat any flight delays or cancellations!

Wednesday-Thursday storm
 

Tomorrow's storm is starting to look like more than 6" snow in the lakes region. In any case, it has a ton of moisture to play with. The moisture stream is coming to us directly from the Gulf of Mexico while cold air from Canada is moving in from the NW.

I will also repeat, in case you have missed it today: There are two national headlines developing tonight (1) Super Tuesday election and (2) This weather scenario is currently producing some very damaging tornadoes across the entire southeast quarter of the USA... This has been affecting the election, according to NBC News.

***If you have family or friends in the Southeast, it's a good time to check up on them and watch the Weather Channel which is reporting live all evening from the damaged areas. There have already been deaths tonight... roof blown off hangar at Memphis Int'l Airport... 737 moved several feet by wind while parked on tarmac... schools, malls, homes all destroyed... and the storms are maintaining their strength overnight, even without the sun's heat. Tornadoes are deadlier at night because they can't be seen and they strike while unsuspecting people are sleeping. Watching The Weather Channel right now kind of reminds me of the weather reports from the movie "Twister."

This situation (headed this way, where it will meet cold air) has led the NWS-Gray to finally admit that tomorrow's event here will produce a lot of QPF (water from the sky, in whatever form.) The only reason for the lack of confidence on snow amounts is because no one can answer the question "When will the initial sleet/freezing rain become all snow?" My thinking is earlier rather than later here at the NW end of the lake, because of what happened today and because the temperature still remains at 32 here.

If you are flying in early for the derby, check with your airline especially if you're getting routed through the Atlanta hub or flying along the east coast tomorrow. There will probably be plenty of 'domino effect" problems all along the east coast tomorrow as a result of what's happening now through the next 36 hours.

Regarding ice thickness: I haven't seen any bobhouses farther than 100-or-so feet from shore. People have generally been pulling them with ATVs, not trucks. Almost no activity to the south of Black Cat. The shoals (FL #83) have even thawed a little in the past couple days. I have also noticed snowmo's going faster the last week or so... an indication that they don't completely trust what they're riding on and would rather have enough speed to skip over the weak spots. They were going slower and even stopping on the ice last week, but not this week.

I have a direct flight into Manchester, hope that takes away some of my issues. Was due in at 845 and decided that was almost bound to be a cancelled flight. Just paid an arm and a leg to get an earlier flight out, hope it works out!

Snow
 

I completely agree with CLA.

Latest models are showing what looks to me to be more like 8" to 10" for the lakes over a 24 hour period from Wednesday midday through Thursday midday or afternoon. More could come over the weekend!

It looks to start as rain, then change to snow and the snow looks heavy and wet for most of the event. It should be topped off with some fluff, so blowing snow might also be a factor for the weekend.

The gusts over the weekend look like 35+MPH so make sure the bob houses are well anchored.

Have fun and stay safe!

R2B

Changeover
 

At 9:30 am the rain has changed to snow at Black Cat. This follows about 30 minutes of sleet and freezing rain. The temperature is 31 and dropping at about 1 degree per hour.

A winter storm warning is now in effect for the lakes region for 5 to 10 inches of snow. This warning remains in effect until tomorrow morning.

For those traveling along the east coast today, expect severe thunderstorms to continue from the mid-Atlantic states southward, and a transition zone to winter precipitation north of there.

More information is on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter page.

Wow...that's a much quicker changeover than I expected. Sounds like we'll be doing more sludgeblowing after work today. Must have been some backwards-pajama-wearing going on last night also...

...sludgeblower...that's for sure...just a friendly warning here...not a good idea to leave your snowblower out by the town road and unattended....things like outboard motors and snowblowers can disappear...

It's back to freezing drizzle now, and occasional freezing rain. This happened when the snow got lighter. The same thing that happened yesterday is still happening today: The cold air is just above our heads, and whenever the heavier precip comes in, it pulls down the cold air and we have snow. The lighter precip is falling as freezing rain/drizzle.

This will change this afternoon as the cold air from Canada (not from above) starts to move in. When that happens we will have enough cold at all altitudes to produce snow.

???
 

We've had no precip. at all in over two hours now, and the temp. has held at around 35 - 36 degrees all day. We had rain early this morning, then sleet for about 15 minutes around 10 AM, then rain again. Then everything stopped around 12:30 PM.

It's Coming... check your airlines
 

Don't worry, it's on the radar to our west. There were two storms, not one. The first has passed this morning and the second one is slated to give us several inches of snow tonight into tomorrow.

Getting here for the derby by air could prove very difficult because Chicago's airline hub is reporting over 1,000 flights cancelled at this hour due to heavy snow, and Atlanta's hub is getting severe thunderstorms. Planes must be routed around thunderstorms because the storms' wind shear causes so many crashes, so with many east coast states getting severe thunderstorms this afternoon, you can probably imagine that's a lot of east coast flights that are being detoured via 'the scenic route.'

Bottom line: If you're flying in here for the weekend, consider a direct flight to Manchester as tpabrad did. If you're driving here, your window of opportunity will be narrower the farther away you are - time the trip well. Models and public forecasts are starting to indicate more snow (possibly significant) for Saturday into Sunday.

I made it!!! yay

Surprising enough flight was actually very smooth and landing in MHT wasnt as bad as it has been in the past. Glad to be here though, cant wait to get out tomorrow!

Let it snow :)

My brother and I are flying in tomorrow around midnight direct from Denver. Think we will be ok? Then my fiance is flying in from Jackson Hole-Chicago-Boston on Friday. She gets it at 4:00 on Friday. She should be fine right? Seems like this is a quick storm and should be gone by tomorrow night.

Stay in touch with your airline
 

The storm should be over by tomorrow night but it's the ripple effects in the airline schedule that you want to watch out for. That's not a question of meteorology but a question of the airline industry. You get a couple major hubs (Atlanta, Chicago) screwed up for a day with 1000 flights cancelled, and suddenly the airlines have loads of planes where they're not supposed to be, and not enough planes where they need them. Given the state of the aviation industry in the US today, and the way the FAA runs things, I wouldn't be surprised if it took Chicago 2-3 days to get back to normal after today. I have flown the Jackson Hole-Chicago-Boston route before and learned that my flight's on-time performance was a rarity... the 'on time percentage' for that route is 40% which means they're late more than half the time! Pitiful! But at least on that route they give you a 757 instead of a DeHavilland Dash-8 Turboprop that they use on the JAC-DEN route, bouncing you and your stomach contents around in the slightest of turbulence... :eek:

Anyone flying into Boston the next few days stands a higher-than-average chance of getting delayed even though the weather doesn't look as stormy as up here (at least tomorrow & Friday). The reason for this would be low cloud ceilings which usually force our country's caveman-era air traffic control system to go into a super-cautious mode.

Yeah. She always talks about that Jackson to Denver flight. Rocks Springs to Denver is even worse from what she says. We don't really have an option so it is what it is. Wish us luck.

I imagine, right at this moment, there is quite a bit of slush on the ice. With temps at 17 tonight and 13 Friday night, do you think the lake/ice surface will solidify enough to allow for ATV and/or snowmobile travel? I'm either taking the sled to meet the group I'm fishing with or the truck.......

Snowfall report
 

At 11 a.m. Black Cat has 6.1" for a storm total, with light snow still falling. Expect another inch or two for the rest of the day today. Tomorrow, we have just enough of a break to push the snowbanks back, before Saturday's snowstorm gets going. The snow pack is now 22 inches, the deepest it's been all winter.

Unfortunately I don't think the temps will get cold enough to freeze all the slush on the lake in the next 24 hours. We would need a very, very cold stretch of weather to do that. There is now a lot of snowcover now on the lake ice , a very thick insulation blanket. The lake ice never had a chance to get truly solid this year, even though it covers the whole lake. So watch out if you're bringing heavy vehicles out there. This winter it will be hard to tell the difference between an area of slush and an area of weak ice.

Anyone want to define "normal" for Chicago air travel? :laugh:


hilltopper, you should be OK via sled, but I'd keep the truck on the pavement. There will be enough yahoo's out on Meredith bay Saturday to check it for us.

No truck on the ice for me. I'd be snowmobiling from the house in Meredith, up trail 15, hopping onto Center Harbor and heading down to meet some friends fishing just off Leavitt Park. That would put me on the ice for about 2.5 miles.

The slush is bad, and very bad in some places

You said it...
 

Center Harbor today....

Conditions
 

A picture is worth a thousand words! Very well done CLA!

This stuff might harden up some the next few days, but I am not sure that is good news. Once we get tracks and those tracks freeze up, you get a very rough surface that is hard to deal with.

Temps look rather cold through the weekend with some snow. Look out for the wind on Sunday.

All things considered, it is better than we were thinking several days ago.

Have a great time out there, but be safe!

R2B

Wow, thanks for the picture CLA. Unfortunatley I leave Meredith in the dark of morning and return in the dark of night every weekday. I knew it would be bad but I had no idea. I'll probably leave the sled in the barn tomorrow. :D

Another inch of snow fell last night, bringing the storm total at Black Cat to 7.8 inches. Another storm is likely this weekend, but it appears that the axis of heaviest snow will set up over the White Mountains along a trough in the atmosphere that will be running between a low pressure area in southern Quebec and another low pressure area offshore.

As a result there is now a winter storm watch for the White Mountains, where more than six inches of snow may fall tomorrow PM through Sunday AM. If this trough shifts north, we'll get next to nothing, and if it shifts south, we'd be looking at another 6-10" of snow this weekend.

Not sure if anyone was aware, but Laconia's annual championship sled dog derby is this weekend also. This event, like the ice fishing, also draws people from all over the country. Expect local roads to be jam-packed, so even a couple inches of snow could wreak havok with that much traffic.

CLA:

Do you have any information on where we stand with YTD snow fall versus historical averages and records? It certainly feels like 07/08 has the potential to set some records given the amount of snow on the ground so far in combination with the fact that we have a lot of winter left. Thanks for any input you can share.

Secondcurve,

You probably mean season-to-date. Currently the major cities from Boston northward are having above normal snow seasons but aren't yet in record-breaking territory. If this trend keeps up, it could be, as you said.

The real snow story is what's happening out west - constant snowfall, to the point where it's not melting and congealing into layers between storms like it usually does. This has caused all the avalanches we've been hearing about, and in places where slides haven't occurred before.

As for my station, here is the snow so far this season. Normals are in parenthesis. They are from Concord.

November: 2.0" (3.8)
December: 42.1" (13.4)
January: 15.4" (18.1)
February so far: 15.8" (14.6)

For the year 2007, we received 106 inches of snow.

What's interesting is to look at various history books for clues about weather before official records were kept. For example, as a railfan I enjoy books on New England's railroad history and in them I've seen pictures of trains plowing their ways through the lakes region in a lot more snow than we have now. There were even stories of trains getting stuck in Crawford Notch, requiring teams of men to shovel out from around them. Nowadays if Crawford Notch got enough snow to stop a train, it would be national headlines. Part of the purpose of the railroads was to serve the logging industry around here, and in winter they used to bring logging trucks across the lake ice. Nowadays we try to decide if the ice is thick enough for pickup trucks or just ATV's.

Therefore when someone says "Record-breaking snow" it only refers to official records... most of which don't go back very far. Mount Washington's records go back to the formation of the Observatory in 1932, but the US Army Signal Corps had a station there prior to that, and some of the records survive. Boston's official records go back to 1878, which is one of the longest official records in the country. In most places the records are only as old as the nearest airport. Prior to the aviation age, there weren't a whole lot of weather stations.

That's probably a little more wordy than you were expecting (sorry!). Just trying to show what 'records' really are, in the world of weather. We tend to think of 'record-breaking' as meaning 'the greatest ever' when in reality it just means 'greatest ever officially recorded.' It has actually snowed throughout New England in July and August 1815 ("The year without a summer") but no official records were kept -- just farmer journals and stuff like that. The official records in most places say that it's never snowed in summer.

CLA:

Thanks for your input. Terrific as usual. I'm off to take a ride up north to see what is happening and shovel a little snow! Have a nice day.

Frontal Passage with a lot of Wind
 

Around midday tomorrow, Sunday, a very strong cold front will impact the area. This will come with gusty winds and blowing snow. It might even have some thunder and lightning.

Conditions could become very bad on the lake for a few hours. It could be a whiteout from falling and blowing snow propeled by 40+ MPH gusts.

For those out on the ice, please pay attention to the weather forecast in the morning. It could be dangerous in the afternoon.

R2B

Timing is looking like later in the afternoon
 

Looking at up wind surface conditions, the front passage looks like it will be late in the afternoon, not around noon.

R2B

Accidents in the snow
 

Moderate snow with pockets of heavy snow is now over the area. This has made the roads really bad, really fast. About an hour ago I-93 South was closed at exit 23 due to a high volume of accidents.

The Fishing Derby has combined with the Championship Sled Dog Derby in Laconia this weekend (they are usually on separate weekends, for obvious reasons, but something got screwed up this year).

This has led to a higher than normal volume of traffic in the area, and unfortunately we can also assume that some of those drinking are probably not choosing to abstain from driving. Be very careful traveling tonight and tomorrow. The snow is expected to continue at varying intensities until R2B's previously-mentioned cold front blasts through here.

CLA

Snow continues
 

Snow continues to fall moderately at times at Black Cat Island. This snow is not showing up on the NWS radar from Gray ME, which means it's entirely below the radar beam (about 9,000 feet.) This is because the NW end of Lake Winnipesaukee is a good distance from the radar site.

Snow for the event so far is 3.1 inches, bringing the snowpack to 24 inches (our first time at the 2-foot mark in a few years) and the seasonal snow is now up to 76.4 inches.

Sunday morning update
 

Visibility at Black Cat Island WeatherCam is currently 1 mile in snow. This new round of snow began at 11:30 am and the National Weather Service in Gray Maine just told me there's "more on the way for you."

Snow since midnight was 1.0", bringing the event total (since yesterday afternoon) to 4.1". Snowpack is now 25 inches.

Climatological record notes... this is our 6th consecutive day of measurable snow (all of which have been at least an inch) and our 8th consecutive day of snowfall. Only one day this month has been without snowfall (2nd).

On the weathermap this morning, a strong cold front is now located in central New York State and is moving east. This is bands of moderate and heavy snow ahead of it. Its passage will be marked with high winds from the Northwest and a sudden temperature drop, as R2B mentioned a couple days ago.

Black Cat Factoid = Even though it is located two towns away, one little slice of Black Cat Island is located in the Town of Meredith, which explains why the weather on that spot is forever an advance, prevailing westerly, weather warning! ....aaaoooogggghhhhhaaaaaa!:D