We are on Whortleberry and it's been our experience over the years that even if "ice out" is declared, it can be another day or two before all the ice is gone in that area. It's usually pretty thin though - we've broken through it with the boat on the way over a time or two. Looking forward to your report if you venture out. :)

Birds eye view

https://www.facebook.com/Emerson-Avi...1847876851023/

They just uploaded some fresh pics. ;)

Center Harbor is still iced in so the Mount is unable to leave its winter dock.

Thank you for the Center Harbor report.

Is there any ice around Shep Brown's boat basin?
 

Anxious to get on the water, is the water open in front of Shep Brown's?

Melvin Village Marina confirmed today that there is still lots of ice in the bay. (Tear flick!)

Do not know, but suspect the inside passage is still iced from Pine Island south to the ice edge 200-yards south of Rock Island, which is 200-yards north of Cattle Landing.

Will take a ride down to Shep Browns and to Y-Landing later on, this morning, and take a look-see.

Sheps
 

Unfortunately islanders2002 webcam is down on rattlesnakecam.com. It looks directly south at Shep’s. Looks like the power may be off on the west end of Bear since the two Bearcams that are also near the channel with Pine Island are also dark.

There's a live webcam at Center Harbor:

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out
 

Thanks to all who are sharing great pictures of progress of ice out. I loved the live shots. See you in August.

Either DSL or power is off on Mark as my cams are down. Are you still live on your cam? NHEC is showing a Meredith outage.

Power Out on Bear
 

NHEC rep says crew will be out to Bear when ice is out.

Paugus Bay
 

Hi;

My TRITOON IS IN THE WATER @ THURSTONS MARINA, AND TOOK A SPIN ARROUND PAUGUS BAY > Ice is out all the way to Christmas Isand, but you have to be careful as there are some spongy ice comming thru the channel when the wind blow down from the north.

There is a lot of ice dammed up at the mouth of the Weirs channel. and it could get pushed down thru the channel at any time in the next 2 days.

WINNI BOB

Thank you for the Update, would you say the ice is weak enough that it would not cause damage if dock or a lift went in the water this weekend?

.... is yucky gray!
 

Ok .... as seen ten minutes ago, from the Shep Brown boat launch, the lake there is all clogged up with gray, yucky ice from Sheps out to Bear Island, in both directions.

As seen from the Y-Landing docks, viewed from Pine Island to Bear Island, and from Pine Island north toward Centre Harbor, is all clogged up with gray ice.

From the Y-Landing docks to Pine Island and to the nearby island with the large A-frame house, is all open water.

And from Rock Island, the ice line has moved south getting to just about one hundred yards north of Cattle Landing.

Meanwhile, in the last ten minutes , the wind has noticeably picked up, and today's weather indicates more windy breezes, so that could do impact on all this gray slushy ice.

After going slushy, ice loses its' buoyancy and sinks before it totally melts, so it's a combination of melting, absorbing water, going slushy, and sinking while going from winter white to yucky gray. The strong elastic winter white ice, made during the deep freeze, expands to 110% of its' liquid volume, which is why this ice will float on the surface. As it melts and mixes with water, it reaches a condition where it will no longer remain buoyant, and it sinks.

..... hey there Buddy ..... every one of my posts is serious, useful and great ..... you just need to adjust your attitude a little bit!


Mink Island ice: ..... and, looking at Mink Island from about a mile away, and down the passage between Mark and Timber, what was yesterday's all ice is now today's all open water.

Contrary to what many believe... Lake ice does not sink.

Over the past 20 years official ice out is 3 to 5 days after our 1st trip to Welch.


As we could have got out yesterday rather than waaaaaiting all the way to today, for this year that would be the 2oth to the 22nd. My pick of the 21st is still in the running:D

Thanks, Slickcraft!
 

Enjoyed reading your calculations. My guess of 11:22am on 4/22 still stands a chance too. Hope your Firstmate was able to make the trip with you.:)

Yes she made the trip; she would not miss it.

Hey, when you get there, can you go and fix my downed phone cable so I can see whats going on?
(just kidding, we should be there in 2 weeks)

We were there today and our DSL is working. Will be back by Monday but I just can't recall where I left my pole climbing boots, spikes, tether belt and tool bag:D

Yep. Any day now.

So my soon to be son-in-lawn has coined the term "Lescar-fact". Since our last name is Lescarbeau, a Lescar-fact is a False Fact said with such aplomb and confidence that anyone who didn't know any better would be convinced of its veracity when in fact it is spurious. It is a false fact! I am famous for them.

While I am admittedly unsure, this strikes me as a Lescar-fact!

first trip out by boat
 

Made it to Pine Island from Y-Landing on Wednesday. Clear water in the channel and then pushed through the ice on the south side of the island around to the east... slow going!

with a little wind, it won't be more than a few days now till full ice out!! -PIG

Foggy Friday
 

Fog eats ice though....

At the risk of being "that guy", I believe that the fog may be a result of the ice going away, not the cause of it. :)

Can someone set me straight on this belief?

It's both. The fog forms close to the ice because the layer of air there is cooled below the dew point of the bulk air mass over us, which (for Moultonborough at 6:19pm) is 60 F. But the moisture in that somewhat humid air also is condensing at the ice surface, giving it about 1000 BTU/lb of moisture condensed. Compare that to about 143 BTU/lb of ice melted, and you have close to seven pounds of ice melted per pound of moisture condensed out of the air. Think of the ice as being a dehumidifier for the air. You wouldn't notice the fog if there were any wind, as that would keep the air layers mixed, but the rate of melting would be even higher. The mixing would bring the energy in the warmer, somewhat humid air to the ice surface faster.

Ice will be gone tomorrow
 

HI folks;

I decided to do a little fishing today 4/19/19, friday, My tritoon was already in the water at Thurstons Marine in the Weirs channel. I decided to motor up the channel and fish in front of the Weirs Beach area. There was a lot of dark , mushy ice, and it pretty much was blocking the channel . But, as the day wore on...2:00 pm and the temp quickly rose to near 65 degrees, and the wind kicked in soon afterwards....the ice started moving north towards Governors Island and Spindle Point(the north shoreline) ..the entire Weirs bay area opened right up. I had a great day, and by 6:00 pm I connected with my first salmon of the year, a nice 18" salmon.

I could see the inside of Governers Island was completely open.

I'm predicting that ice-out will occur by the end of the day tomorrow.

WINNI BOB

Ice will be gone tomorrow
 

The entire Weirs Beach area opened up late today. I caught my first salmon at 6:30 pm right in front of the Weirs Beach area. I could see open water all the way through the inside of Governors Island.

Whoppee !!!!


WINNI BOB

Riddle me this Batman...

As I understand it, ice out is declared by pilot Emerson who flies his plane over the lake to verify it is safe for the Mount Washington to make all of its stops.

But...

What if the weather conditions preclude safe flight and he has to wait a few days to go look? For instance, if the weather delayed the flight until Monday, say at 3pm, that could happen right?

Asking for a friend...

It will be ruled as “Obstruction of Ice Out” by Special Counsel. Emerson will be impeached for collusion with the ice gods...

From observing large areas of gray slushy ice disappear into the water, all at once, it seems to me the slush is both melting, losing buoyancy, and sinking, all at the same time.

Too big of an area of slush will disappear into the water, all at once, for it to be just melting, which leads me to think that the slush also sinks.

Au contraire. Since Emerson is Chief Ice Out Executive, we will simply have ice out declared in July and there will be no consequences. All the people who had ice out guesses will grumble and chip in to buy him a new plane that can fly in all types of weather. :D

Anyone have eyes on 19 mile bay recently?

Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water. Even if it is saturated (in holes, crevices, etc) with the water that surrounds it will still be more buoyant.


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Friday noon time 19
 

19 mile was dark gray with a lot of open water around the shore. I would not be surprised to see it gone ANYTIME SOON. There is a Pontoon boat in at 19 Mile bay. Every where it looked real dark and ready to go out. Wolfboro etc. Just my opinion. kerk

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.

On a sunny day, from the shore, one can stand there, and watch the glistening slush as it slowly descends downward into the depths. The slush loses its' buoyancy and very slowly sinks.

Wolfeboro bay is “slushed” in, but there appears to be open water before the point and out toward Barndoor.


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