Lake temps/ ice in
 

I searched around and it sounds like the temp thing is gone for now. Being out in Colorado it's tough to get any info out there. Seems the weather has been on the colder side over the last few weeks and that it is going to continue that way. Makes me think that maybe we can get an early freeze on Winni. So could someone post the lake temp in their area and, if the information is available, what an average lake temp is for this time of year? Much appreciated. On a side note does anyone know what the earliest recorded "ice in" was? I get like an 8 year old who can't wait for snow this time of year.

It's right at your fingertips...

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/

Look at the bottom link under Site Navigation.

Water Temperatures...

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/tempcal/index.cgi

Water Temps
 

In the left column of this site's homepage is a link to the calendar with the daily water temps at Lakeport. You can also go to Bizer.com and link to the lake level site which also lists Lakeport's water temps.

IMHO, it will be some time, and certainly not before the first of the new year before "ice in" occurs. The lake is very deep and it takes quite a while to get the water temp down to the uniform 39 degrees necessary for ice formation to commence on the surface. It also takes many successive cold nights of well below freezing temps and we generally don't get that kind of deep cold until early January. Sit back and relax...enjoy the Holidays!

Blue Thunder

Don't forget Mikes weather site, live data, pix, and much more:

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

When you look at the water temps right now, go back to the same month in previous years. You get a pretty good indication of how this years water temps compare to years past.

Ice In?
 

I just looked over the past 6 years of temp data and the temps in low 50's line up like most other years. There's nothing that really indicates the lake will freeze any earlier than it typically does.

But what is the definition of "ice in"? Folks can be ice fishing in Alton Bay when there's still open water not far beyond Sandy Point. And in late January it's not uncommon to be skiing and still see open water in the broads.

Most years I watch the first of the major ice forming on the lake while enjoying the week off between Christmas and New Years.

As other notes have indicated, mostly New Years before ice really starts, and mid-January before it is solid....in a "normal" year.

Only needs to be 39 degrees to freeze? Is that someting like the reason I get frost on my car when it is 38 degrees?

A big factor with ice formation is the wind, there have been years when it was so windy that the ice never did completely form.

Freezing is all about water density
 

No, water freezes at 32 degrees. However, the lake can't freeze until all water underneath is at 39 degrees (4 degrees C). Water is most dense at 39 degrees, so water at that temperature sinks, and warmer lake water rises to the surface -- which also must be cooled to 39 degrees -- which sinks, is replaced by warmer water, and so on until everything is at 39 degrees. When that temperature is reached, there is no more warm water to rise to the surface. Therefore, the surface water can now begin to freeze and ice begins to form and stay on the lake.

This "water density at 39 degrees" also explains why shallow lakes freeze quicker than deep lakes like Winni. Deep lakes have much more water that needs to be cooled to 39 degrees. It also explains (in part) why Alton Bay can freeze before the rest of the lake, or even other parts of Alton Bay (as mentioned by another poster here) -- because it is more shallow and gets to 39 degrees a lot quicker.

Thanks guys and gals. Looks like the lake temps are a solid 2-4 degrees colder than this time last year. Now I am no expert but seems to me that is a note worthy difference for water temps. Of course a warm spell can ruin all that but at 2-4 degrees the lake COULD freeze earlier than usual by a week or two. Good enough for me. I am tired of these winters with thin ice. I want to see 24" this year in Meredith bay.

The water depth averages 30' around here and the earliest I've walked on the ice is December 17'th. That year was weird as it melted a few days later. For my first fourteen years here, the local ice was safe to walk on for New Years day. Three of the last four years, that has not been the case. Its too bad we don't have a way of measuring ice-in like we do ice-out in the spring. It would be interesting to see the history, along with knowing if there was any correlation between the two dates.

Great Explanation!
 

Nice job TNT. I was gonna take a crack at explaining it after I posted it, but I knew someone else with a better way of explaining it would come along. I remember former Channel 4 meteorologist Bruce Schwoegler talking about the 39 degree principle on TV when I was a kid. He always made references to Winnipesaukee during "ice in/out" season.

BT

Thank you for the plug, WiFi!

The water temperature on my site is updated every 15 minutes from 2 depths.

Yep, great site
 

That's one of the nicest and informative Lake-related web pages.

Thanks for all the information on the lake freezing and the whole 39 degrees thing. You learn something new everyday!

I am going to pass this along to my kids.

nj2nh

Fish also benefit
 

NJ2NH, the 39 degree water temperature also explains why the whole lake doesn't freeze down to the bottom, and why the fish also don't freeze. The bottom layer of the lake ice is always in danger of being melted by the 39-degree temperature water underneath, which actually limits the thickness of the ice in our NH climate. Think about how much heat is in the massive body of water at a uniform 39 degrees! To put it in perpective, if you had a heat pump at your house, when the air temperature is 39 degrees outside, the heat pump can completely warm the entire house and keep it at a comfortable 68 degrees F inside -- that's a lot of heat at 39 degrees.

And of course, 39 degrees isn't freezing, so the fish are happy to be swimming in this relatively "warm" water -- given that they are a cold-blooded species and don't need to stay warm.

I agree, thanks for the info.

Looks like we are about one week behind last year - we are at 49 degrees, last year we made it there by 11/9. Of course some teen temps this week may catch us up in a hurry.

I think you're right. We're at 47 for lake temp now, only the second cold night in a row and more to come.

Water Temps
 

And now it's down to 44 degrees at Lakeport.... C'mon winter!

I have seen ice on some of the smaller ponds in Southern NH. There is even ice on parts of the Shawsheen River down here in Andover, MA. Certainly is early for ice, but a good sign nonetheless.

The small pond that I pass on my way to work here in central MA was fully skimmed over for the first time this morning...

Bring it on. I just looked at the forecast for the Meredith area and it looks like a good cold spell has a hold on you guys. Come on winter!

Back to normal, cold to hang in
 

Looking at the data for the past 5 years, it looks like 45 degrees, plus or minus a degree, is the normal for November 20th in this era. Yesterday was November 20th and the lake was at 44 degrees.

With the cold weather here and looking to hold for some time, I would guess that will put the lake a few degrees below normal in a week or so, so it is approaching the magic temp of 39 degrees for transition rather quickly. I realize the water freezes at 32 degrees, but there are specific gravity reasons why 39 degrees is so magical, and important.

It looks like there are about eight weeks to get the sleds and bob houses ready for the big lake, maybe less in the coves if the cold holds.

R2B

My brother was just up there (Meredith Bay) yesterday getting the sleds fired up and ready. I would love it if the lake froze by Christmas, but that might be too optomistic He said it was pretty burly out there. I don't think he was out on the water but he said it was nasty!

Skim ice in Meredith
 

There is a bunch of skim ice on Winnipesaukee by the Lago resturaunt. It extends from the guest docks to the western shore and about 100 feet south of the north shore. Woo-hoo! Maybe its time to think about getting the docks in. :rolleye2:

I was at the lake yesterday. It was miserably cold and windy. Smaller ponds are all skimmed over, even some of the coves showing signs of ice.

What surprised me the most was to see the Merrymeeting Marsh and River around the Alton circle completely skimmed over. With the water temps and movement, I wouldn't have expected this.

Flip should occur any day now, if not already.

http://www.squamlakes.org/sla/ecology.htm

Water Temp's dropping fast
 

41 degrees at Lakeport this morning per the recorded message. Getting close to that magic 38.2 degrees....

Check out the Ossipee cam...Broad Bay appears to be entirely skimmed over.

It's coming, Wickwass was skimmed over this AM.

Pemigewasset too
 

Was that way this afternoon as well. Pemigewasset was too. I noted Winni near Clough Park was also skimmed over. Chief Chocorua was shivering ! Supposed to warm up this week though.

Cumminings Cove / Bear Island?
 

Has anybody been around the Cummings Cove or Cattle Landing area? I usually make my last trip to Bear Island this weekend after the feast on Thursday and then pull my boat out. I keep it in Cummings Cove area and in the past have not had issues with ice this time of year. Do I need to get up the lake and pull my boat before the holiday? Are people just overly optimistic for ice-in or is there serious skimming occurring? Thanks.

Make up your minds, people!
 

I love this!

We spend late winter and early spring waiting and watching for the ice out.

We spend the late fall and early winter waiting and watching for the ice to come it.

Only at Lake Winnipesaukee. Wish I were there to live it for myself. Soon, but not soon enough.

nj2nh

It's all open water around Cattle Landing....no starter ice yet in any of the usual spots.....Indian Summer lives at the Cattle Landing....the boating season has at least another month left before the January 8 ice-in:D.

Water Temp 38 degrees at Lakeport this A.M.
 

Won't be long now....

Ice breaking up
 

A lot of the ice from M'boro bay to Lees Mills has been broken up and is flowing south. Sunday, the lake was almost frozen in from Ambrose cove across to the snowmobile power-line trail, but this morning, its all open again. Whitecaps everywhere, and smoke rising from the water. Its 6 degrees at 9:30AM - so if the wind would ever calm down, things would freeze up again quickly.

There is quite a showing of arctic sea smoke this morning at Black Cat. The water temp has dropped 2 degrees overnight. The temp at 10 feet down was 40 yesterday and is now 39. The temp at 2 feet down is now 37. At 35 there is usually some ice on the surface. The 10-foot probe usually stays around 35 or 36 all winter.

This week we'll get some snow chilling the surface tomorrow and then Thursday will bring another cold blast.

What a difference a nite makes
 

The wind died down enough last night - and it was 4 degrees - to freeze over virtually everything north of Moultonborough Bay. All white - shore to shore - except for a few wet spots here and there. It is snowing lightly, so its easy to see where its ice and not. We'll see how it stands up to Wednesday's "upper 40's" and showers.

The large pond in Marlborough, MA that I pass on my way to work was completely frozen over and covered with snow this morning for the first time. Over the years, I've found this to be a good indicator for the lake as it preceeds what happens at the lake by about 2 weeks, both Spring and Fall.

It had been wide open before this. I expect it will open up again over the next few days. But the freeze does seem to be a bit earlier this year.

From the Alton Bay cam, I see that it is similarly covered today.

This morning I found a few small bergs drifting past Black Cat. I assume they came from a frozen part of the lake, perhaps Salmon Meadow Cove.

The water temp dropped during this morning's snowfall, which tallied 1.5 inches. The 2-foot probe is now at 37 and the 10-foot probe is 38. We're getting close. More snow or sleet will help to chill the water surface, as will more cold, dry, windy weather like yesterday's.

The warmup is stalling. It was forecast to go to the 30s today, but it's almost 2 pm and we've only reached 20 so far. Tomorrow, if the warmup gets in here in earnest, I don't expect it to last long. Thursday we'll be right back into winter.

Pretty warm today...those toasty winds are going to warm the surface up quite a bit I would imagine.

Storm watch
 

Looks like they're already posting a Winter Storm Watch for Belknap County Thursday night into Friday afternoon with the possibility of 6+ inches. I'm sure this will get it's own thread. Everyone ready?

Any ice forming up there yet? Looks like a bit of snow and cold temps are there to stay. Plus the water temp says 36*. I don't think I have ever seen it feeze before Christmas. This year maybe? Come on ice!

Earlier this evening the probe at 2 feet deep went to 32. The probe at 10 feet was 35. This is the normal wintertime temp pattern when it is frozen. My guess is that the snow falling in the water, which was already at 36, lowered the temp a lot more. There's no doubt it's ready to freeze as soon as it sits still. The question is, when will it sit still?

Saturday: Windy and cold, high 19. (More chilling of the water.)

Sunday: Possible Nor'Easter, more snow. (More chilling of the water.)

Monday: Very windy and very cold, high 14. (Mega chilling of the water.)

Tuesday, maybe? Wednesday brings another storm.

This morning the water temperature at Black Cat Island is again down to 32 at the depth of 2 feet, and 33 at 10 feet. It has been trying to freeze when still, but has not been very still for the last several days. Today the northwest wind howls once again; we are gusting to 28 mph and wave heights are about 2 feet. There are several bergs of ice formed from the snow, which never melted in the lake water.

Anyone have any updates/info on the ice? Is meredith still iced over or has it gone away with this warmer weather? How about the rest of the lake?

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
 

About the current ice situation:

The Good is that the water is cold, in fact cold enough to freeze on a normal night without wind.

The Bad is that it will get warmer the next day or so, likely record warmth. It will also get windy. This will break up and melt most of the thin ice that is in the coves.

The Ugly is the wind. I do not see any stretch of time where it will be cold without wind between now and about Jan 6th. There is a short period around Jan 1 and 2 that might become more promising for the ice, but right now it does not look cold enough or calm enough.

Unfortunately, it might get uglier! It is my personal opinion that from mid January to late February, it is likely to be warmer than normal. It will still be cold, this is northern New England in the winter, but compared to normal, I see it on the warmer side.

For those technical folks out there, I see the trough near the east coast moving (retro-grading) westward and holding a blocking position near the Rocky's, giving them winter and us the warmer flow found on the east side of a trough, with a ridge over us or slightly to our east enhancing the northward flow of the warm air about a month from now. That is why I think it will be above normal here from Jan 20th to late February.

I really hope that I am wrong with this, but that is the way it looks to me at this time.

R2B

Well I hope you are wrong. Looks like the temps are going to drop quite a bit after tonight. Looks good to me for the next week or so. Alton is still frozen which is good but I am still wondering about Meredith bay. Frozen?

BB,

I took a ride up to Meredith this afternoon to get you an updated status of the Meredith Bay ice.

The ice is covering more of the bay than I had thought. It extends down to Grouse Point and across to Pinnacle Point. From there it is wide open. There is no ice in the area where the falls exit into the bay to the left of the launching ramp as you look out from the land.

The ice looks like it will hold and build with the cold weather the next week. Alton is also iced up well past Sandy Point.

It will be windy the next week or so, so unless the wind dies down, I do not think we will see much more new ice.

I have some photos that I hope to get up in the next day or so.

Happy New Year!

R2B

Top notch report. Thanks. Thats ahead of schedule. I hope you didn't drive up there just to look at the ice for me. I assumed someone lived there. My parents are up there all this week so they will be watching. I am looking for one of those real cold winters. Where there is a "highway" down the bay and 24" of solid black ice. It's been almolst ten years since we drove our trucks out there. This year is going to be fun. Thanks again.
Chris

Once the wind stopped, ice formed from the Ames Farm area all the way out to Diamond Island and Rattlesnake Island. I saw some lights out on the southwest end of Rattlesnake last night, so if there is someone staying out there, they were iced in this morning.

Walking on the ice
 

North of Moultonborough Bay, the ice is about 3" thick and can be carefully walked on. Most of the snow has been blown off the ice once you move away from shore. Not too much human activity yet - but it was safe enough to walk out and shoot off some fireworks on the night of New Year's day. Moultonborough Bay is iced-in as far as I can see.

Jan 3 update: Ice is 6" plus. The pressure ridge at the north entrance to M'boro bay has formed.

Jan 10 update: Ran the snowmobile from the trail entrance in Smith Cove in M'boro bay up to Lees Mills and through the woods trail into Greens Basin area. The ice is very solid in all places except the typical open water going into Greens. Even both sides of Little Ganzy are solid. There is enough snow on the ice to make it great driving.

Meredith Bay ice
 

After the wind died down last night, Meredith Bay became completely iced in. Ice formed from Grouse Point all the way out to the Weirs. I'm sure it is very thin but probably enough to protect it from any wind damage and to allow it to continue to thicken. On my way to Lowes this morning I also noticed that Paugus Bay is also iced over. A couple more cold days like we've had and a little less wind and we'll make some serious progress on ice in.

There was one lone bob house out today in front of Libby Museum.

Wind and More Wind
 

It is great to see the lake getting more ice last night.

In post #48 of this thread, I mentioned that we could get a short period of little or no wind on the 1st and 2nd. That happened and we got good, but thin ice coverage. However, as expected, the calm period will be short. Tonight, we should have wind gusts back up to 20 - 30 MPH mainly from the west. Some ice will survive and some will not. It is wind from the NW or SE that do the most ice damage so west is not the worse direction for ice lovers.

We will have another period of cold weather and low winds the 6th and 7th as I expected, then another around the 10th and 11th, that might be with a bit if snow.

I still think the weather to go above normal around the 20th and lasting through Febraury. If the lake has iced up, this should not be a big deal, but open areas will likely stay open if this materializes.

Saty safe out there!

R2B

Ice is IN at Black Cat
 

The ice to the southeast of Black Cat Island has remained in place despite very windy weather today. Winds are currently gusting to 34 mph and are sustained at 16 mph. We have had a peak gust of 48 mph this afternoon. Yet, the ice is still there.

Cold Water = Fast Ice Build
 

I am surprised that so little new ice got eaten up by all the wind we have had for the last 12 hours or so. I think it has to do with the relatively cold water.

The Broads are still wide open, but in all the bays I saw today, and in every area except for the main part of the broads, the ice was holding. It also looks like ice that will develop into real solid ice given the cold temps we will see for the next ten to fifteen days.

Please, everyone, be safe and let Mother Nature do her job in making the ice thick before you think about going out on it.

I see a few 12 to 20 hour periods in the next week or so where it will be very cold with very little wind. Hopefully, this will allow the ice to cover most of the broads.

R2B

Ice
 

The Nightrider and I fished on Winter Harbor today on 2" of ice!!! only in 3-4 ft of water!! we didn't see any open water looking from winter harbor towards the broads all the way to Rattlesnake!

It is getting COLD and will get COLDER!
 

I realize that I have predicted a thaw of some magnitude for the last week to ten days of January. However, between now and then it is going to get very cold!

Starting Wednesday and lasting through the weekend, daytime highs will be between 8 and 14 degrees and it will be below zero at night, possibly -10F on a few nights.

This will build ice much more than any possible thaw will take it away.

All winter events, the Derby and the Carnivals, are looking real good right now.

Thank God the cost of oil is down!

Stay safe and keep warm!

R2B

Sweet. I've been watching that cold air coming down from the arctic. I'm thinking 18-22"" of ice half way down Meredith bay. That would mean a solid 22-26" down at the docks. It's been so long since we had that much ice. Should make for big crowds and lots of trucks on the ice. Can't wait.

Ice-In declared
 

According to an article in today's Laconia Citizen, Ice-In has been declared by Emerson Aviation. Also in the article it mentions that this is about 2 weeks earlier than normal.

Can the Ice-out contest be far behind?


http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll...929/-1/CITNEWS

Today from Lincoln Park on Scenic Drive
 

Looks locked in. No people or ski tracks visable. There are a couple of Bob Houses about 30' off Ellacoya Beach near the boat ramp.

Attachment 2291

Attachment 2292

Taken with a cell phone cam. Nice view of Mt. Washington.

You can Google Map the spot the pictures were taken from.

20 Scenic Drive, 03249

Paugus Bay
 

There are bob huts, ATVs and snowmobiles on Paugus Bay today.

Jetskier:cool:

Great News
 

Great to hear the entire lake is ice covered. With the very cold weather ahead for the next ten days or so, this ice will build and the broads will be as safe as ice gets.

The only way to really see if the whole lake is covered is from the air. Thanks to Emerson Aviation for the news!

Be safe out there!

R2B