Covid-19 Poll of the Lakes Region
With little official information about the local presence of the pandemic, here's a poll to get a sense of what's going on.
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If folks are honest with this poll, this could be interesting. No media twists, no editorial spin, just pure data. I'm watching this one for sure. Great post!
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It's Been Worse...
Here, CDC gives background of the disastrous 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and how it got around a world lacking jet travel.
How an aging Swedish physician got us started with flu vaccines. (Not too much science-talk): https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...918-virus.html |
Compound growth isn't just for loans
It's early days, but COVID-19 has been showing a 15% daily growth rate. That means 100 fold increase each 33 days. 10,000 in 66 days. So unless we can slow it down that's 3,000,000 US cases with 100,000 to 200,000 dead depending on whether we get the global average mortality, or Italy (6.8% dead, 9% critical, 250 died on Thursday, nearly 400 today). So what are you looking for with this post? It reminds me of standing at the fire watcher station in Mesa Verde in July 2000. The ranger was running around and looked worried. But there was nothing in particular to see. Not that I saw. Maybe a wisp of smoke. Twenty minutes later we were fleeing the park and it burned to the ground behind us.
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I think this poll is frankly not very useful when we all know that testing is in no way available for the number of people who want to be tested.
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Can I change my vote? I now know someone who has TESTED positive.
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New poll each week?
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Useful for the Lakes Region...
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Even at the newly-opened "drive-throughs", applicants will be screened to determine if the test is necessary. Symptoms would have to be apparent. A doctor's prescription would be best. As in Ebola determinations, it is at this early stage that errors can be introduced. Like the CDC test for the Ebola disease, the CDC's Covid-19 tests are not 100% accurate. A faster, better, test was approved by the FDA only this week. A private firm, who pioneered in this form of testing, Roche can supply 400,000 tests, producing them within 24 hours. As for "flattening the curve", isolation will extend the exposure period into September :eek2: but reduce the fatal aspects of Covid-19 on those aged into their 70s. (Blue line >70s). |
Better a Navy Doctor...but...
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Today, a retired Army doctor has put forth his dispassionate opinion of how COVID-19 will proceed. Since he's addressed other questioners, I've shortened his response for clarity: Quote:
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This poll is a bit disconnected from reality. It needs the following additional options:
(X) I know someone who has COVID-19. ( ) I have been diagnosed with COVID-19. ( ) I know someone who died of COVID-19. (X) I or someone I know couldn't get treatment for another urgent illness due to hospitals overrun with COVID-19 cases. (X) I know someone who died because they couldn't get treatment for another illness due to COVID-19. (X) I had to postpone elective surgery due to COVID-19. I've checked four of the above. COVID-19 has impacted me in other ways. Many of my clients are in New York City and China. A friend in France is at great risk because she needs radiation therapy for stage IV cancer. Another friend is on lockdown in Germany. I thank God I procrastinated about elective surgery because my aftercare would have put me in danger. If you don't feel impacted by COVID-19 you must be living in some kind of really small local bubble, or a mental bubble. People who are fixated on the low number of cases in New Hampshire aren't seeing the bigger picture of the pandemic. This is surprising, when you look at the big red dot on the virus map at https://www.nytimes.com/ We are on the fringe of the expanding epicenter. The main error of our government has been its failure to act until forced to, and to deny the reality of the crisis. It's the same with people who don't see the need for social distancing and closing businesses in New Hampshire: by the time you realize that yes, YOU are in a pandemic, it will be too late. Same for those who keep comparing COVID-19 to H1N1 etc: by the time you realize that this is very different, it will be too late. The way this poll was phrased reflects denial of the severity of the situation. |
Today quickly becomes the past
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SailinAway
"Mental bubble"!!!
Best part of your post! |
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Yesterday's COVID-19 Map
http://7lstv.com/covid19/033120.png
Note BosNYWash concentration. Guess what? Covid-19 originated in Canada, was stolen, and developed in Wuhan, China. :eek2: |
John’s Hopkins reports almost 200,000 people have recovered from Coronavirus worldwide. To use a favored term of the alarmists: It seems like the recovery rate is “EXPLODING”.
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Forbes reported 500 US deaths from COVID-19 on Monday & over 800000 confirmed cases worldwide. Guess all the numbers are “EXPLODING”!
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"Nationally, the University of Washington model predicts a peak daily death toll of 2,214 in mid-April, with a total of 84,000 Americans dead by the end of summer. That’s more than twice the lives claimed during the 2018-19 flu season, which killed 34,000 people, according to the latest available data from the CDC."
Today's USA Today article, in which the next two weeks are identified as the potential turning point. Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
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On the tele - stay in car - drive up tests. 15 minute results. Done. |
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I only point that out because the lack of testing is one of the points of contention regarding how we should be treating the situation and moving forward. Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
Hate the term “lack of testing” how can one have a test developed and waiting for distribution for a virus that was unknown. A better term might be “limited testing”
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Why complicate this with semantics? Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
I ask you why one must use such a negative terms when others can be used
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Moultonborough has one to four cases in the latest information, but is in Carroll County, which has 10 cases total and nine towns with one to four cases. Consequently, at most Moultonborough has two cases currently confirmed. Please stay safe to keep the numbers low.
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Again, semantics. What a waste of posts. Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
Limited testing
The first tests that CDC had and used in January failed as they were not useful in detecting this virus. Very quickly the correct test was developed and went into production. However the tests were are sent to CDC labs which were operating on limited staff as a result of budget cuts in the last two years. Fast forward, contacts for testing given to the two largest labs in the country. Even as more test kits became available there are not enough people or equipment to process all of the tests daily so there grew a backlog with the national labs of more than a week. My point is supply will never meet demand at the front end of this virus. If we are lucky we may seem some improvements by the beginning of May.
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One should use negative terms when figuring out how to make sure we don't make the same mistakes next time |
Positive Response
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Poll is Missing a Category
The poll should have also included 'Know someone who had died'
Unfortunately, I can include myself in that category now. |
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Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
Weld the Doors Shut. Yup, That'll Work...
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The ventilators were sold on a network of "used-hospital-supplies". :rolleye2: How many went to China? :rolleye1: For perusal: |
As I'm sitting on my desktop here in Waltham I'm watching an ambulance take my neighbor away.
He's been outside painting his deck the past few days. I don't think he's injured so I may know someone that has it now. :( |
Have there been any / many verified reports of people in the lakes region being hospitalized for and / or dying from covid-19 yet?
Out west they have a daily report of the new number of reported cases in the county and the number of deaths. Names of victims are usually not mentioned publicly, nor their location, so it is impossible to know how close it has come to your own location. |
From WMUr this morning
CONCORD, N.H. —
New Hampshire health officials announced Saturday that two more people in the state have died of COVID-19, bringing the total to nine. The two deaths were male residents of Hillsborough County who were over 60 years old. DHHS did not announce whether either had underlying medical conditions. Officials with the Department of Health and Human Services announced 81 new positive tests, the most announced in a single day so far. The new cases are in people living in the following counties: Hillsborough (36, including 23 in Manchester and 7 in Nashua); Rockingham (26); Merrimack (4); Strafford (4); Belknap (3); Grafton (3); Cheshire (1); and Sullivan (1). (Positive results reported likely due to increased testing. My guess is the true numbers will never be known as so many recover or have mild symptoms.) |
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India Reportedly in Peril...
International graph, which has been down-corrected for nursing home deaths.
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...next&width=490 |
When the USA is Doing Well Overall, Panic Still Sells...
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