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Official Ice Out 2011 Reports
Here is your Annual Ice-Out Thread. Please put your reports of lake conditions here where we can keep track of the 2011 ice out.
Features of the ice out page are:
Enjoy! IG |
Snow
Just to get you going.... it is snowing here in central MA!!!!
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The DRH photo-a-day is always really cool. As is the Silver Sands daily photo (if they do it this year). Thanks for compiling this...definitely scratches an itch.
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Thanks IG!
I've been checking for the iceout page for the last few weeks. I look forward to this every year!
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Club Cam
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Ice color
The color of the ice is finally changing, I noticed on most of the cams it is taking on a darker shade.
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Come on ICE OUT not Ice Covered. But I did notice on some cams that the ice cracks are getting more pronounced so that indicates the ice is changing too. |
ice out, or ice in?!?!
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it's looking a lot like winter out there today... very discouraging for those of us that want to get out on the water (and to the island) :(
hopefully this weekend will improve things!! -PIG |
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I was checking today's satellite photo of the lakes region. As some of you know I make occasional comparisons of the "big" lake with Sebago Lake in Maine. They share roughly the same latitude. Today's picture shows a much "darker" lake surface on Sebago compared to other area lakes and ponds, including Winnipesaukee. Don't know what if anything that means but it was noticeable.
I could be wrong but is that a area of open water near the Broads? BT |
The open water near the broads is "The Witches". The sun warms the rocks and they melt the ice. The next step is the wind starts to rip it open even more.
The water is warming up as the sun is very strong now. I still think it will be around April 25th or about three weeks away. R2B |
Blue Thunder, could you post the link to the satellite photo you mention? Thanks!
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Yes, I would love this link for the satellite view. Spectacular.
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Here you go...
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Click on the section of the map that contains New England then click the 250m icon. Use your mouse to scroll and get the lake into the center of the picture. The photo is updated every day around noontime and obviously (I hope) it has to be a clear day to get the best results. BT |
Depressing
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More snow today..are you kidding me :(
at least we are getting rain here in Mass, it doesn't look like the warmer temps the DC area is getting will make it up this way. This is very depressing |
Wind ?
Does anyone know if yesterday's windy conditions and awesome sunshine helped along the ice out mission ? We were out to dinner on Sunday afternoon with no coats on and very comfortable.
The Breeze Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back:D |
Thank You Blue Thunder!
Your link is now on my short list to check out each day. Thanks again. :):):) |
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Anyone want to report on the ice condition over on Lilly Pond in Gilford?
It is always a benchmark on predicting Ice Out on Winni. Lilly Pond is something like 10 days ahead of Winnipesaukee for Ice Out. |
Weather.com 's forecast has Moultonborough in the 50s over the next 10 days & mid 60s next monday!
:D |
My usual indicator is Stevens Pond in Manchester. Lake Winni ice out typically occurs 3 weeks after there is no ice on that pond. Last year was an exception due to the warm weather, it was less than 2 weeks. I suspect this year will be the usual 3 weeks, therefore since there is only a little ice on the pond this morning, ice out will be April 28.
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Lily vs Winnipesaukee
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http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...mmit-Hotel.jpg This Gunstock Summit Hotel picture from flyguy shows Lily Pond in the background. The picture was taken April 1st. Could Lily be free of ice longer than usual before Lake Winnipesaukee? |
Sat Pic
Hey Blue Thunder, ditto on the thanks; neat site.
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BT |
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I agree, should have some significant progress in the next 4 days. Let's see where we are on Tuesday!
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Remember there is still about 15" of ice out there! We still have a long ways to go! :emb:
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hotel
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The picture was taken on 4/1? April Fools? :laugh::laugh:
Maybe someone Photo Shopped the Hotel and the open water (Just Kidding... ) |
The lake ice is still almost white today, very little darker color yet.
The Lilly Pond ice is a darker grey offering some hope. The next days may bring forth darker ice. We saw a pair of loons near just south of the Alton/Gilford town line. Apparently they have faith that the ice will in fact melt in time. |
hotel
its a photoshop...looks pretty good..but you can tell
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We opened up today! Earliest we've ever done it but I'm glad we did. It was a beautiful day.
However, I am surprised at how locked in Merrymeeting still is. Very little melting along the shoreline, the ice is still solid and thick. It's going to be awhile. |
Meredith Bay is still pretty tight except for the shoreline on the west side of the bay. In hopes that we can fool mother nature, we decided to launch the kids 14' aluminum boat today. Our goal is to keep her in the water for 8 months. :D
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Any updated reports on areas opening up? With the temps this weekend and a very warm Monday we should start seeing some serious thinning.
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Open water almost to the bandstand at Alton Bay this afternoon.
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We spent a lot of time driving around Merrymeeting this weekend. Early Saturday, the ice was still white and looking very solid. By late today, it was still solid, but large areas were clearly darker. The temps this week should help. But it looks like another 2 weeks at least.
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Transformation has started
Many dark blotches have appeared on the ice with some small areas almost black.
This quote from the Univ of Minnesota web site: Quote:
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It's coming, It's coming, just view this picture of Alton Bay taken about 5:47 PM this evening.
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The difference in the past 24 hours is dramatic. Looking at the webcams, dark areas and open water showing up everywhere, and in places that didn't even show a hint 2 days ago. Large "steam" plumes showing on Wolfeboro and other cams.
Seems someone hit the fast forward button! (though won't help me...my April 8th guess is already done) :rolleye1: |
Tough to get terribly excited about the upcoming season when you look at the gas prices. Ugh! It's going to hurt this year no doubt about it. Little more sittin' at anchor and a little less cruising around. I may have to cut back a little bit on my salmon fishing too.
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Maxum, no doubt that it will impact the boating community. This is where trailer boaters have the advantage as at least they can fill up at the road stations.
I can't even imagine paying for gas for the larger cruisers out on the water. Unfortunately the US is quickly becoming less of a financial force as the Chinese economic consumption approaches ours. This is simply the beginning as the next couple decades we're going to see major changes in economies across the globe. Even little places like the Lakes Region are impacted by global events. With the supply/demand equation so out of whack, I don't know what to predict with fuel prices anymore. This year's fuel price run-up was predicted last Fall by many economics and energy traders. I don't understand the energy markets but when you can predict these things it always makes me suspicious of how speculators are driving the price. Our supplies seem to reflect gas is over-priced but they're now saying gas is headed for over $4 "easily". |
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Despite the unrest in the middle east and Africa, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations upped production to make up for any lost in the troubled areas. Lybia's oil didn't even come to the US. Traders are just using this as their excuse to force prices higher. Can't even blame Exxon/Mobil or BP for the rise. That said, the 12' aluminum V-hull I bought my wife for her birthday last year only used about 8-9 gallons all summer, and we fished a ton! :D |
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Over in my neck of the woods, parts of the lake that had ice fishermen on them on Saturday reporting 14 inches of ice with 8 of it being solid black ice are now grayish/black and moving in the wind. It will easily be open water by the end of the week if not sooner. BT |
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As a private citizen you are equally free to sell a future to "drive the price down". Then buy it when the price is lower. Every dollar made by one is lost by another. |
Ice is looking gray in spots
From my vantage point in Alton looking over the lake it got very gray in spots overnight, especially between Rattlesnake and Alton Bay. With this wind there might be some open water today. Up towards Meredith and Center Harbor it still looks white. I will try to get a picture tomorrow and post it but no time today.
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Lake Temp up again
The temperature of the lake reported by the dam operators is up to 38 degrees. Last year we had ice out at 39 degrees. (though it was 39 degrees for many days before the ice went out.)
Lily Pond was mostly iced is except for a bit at the edges on Saturday. If anyone goes by could let us know if the ice is out. IG |
Big Change
Yesterday's rain, fog and mild temps really affected the ice. I took this picture from the Scenic View on Rt. 11 in Alton around noon today, looking toward Wolfeboro:
http://echoshores.com/ice-out/2011/S...iew_041211.jpg |
I checked the 2' water temperature on the WeatherCenter Cam page early this morning. It was still just under 37 degrees.
Right now it's reading 39.7! I'm not sure if it actually rose that fast, or if it just hadn't been updating for awhile. In any case, if the reading is true, it's at the seemingly magic 40 degrees when ice-out happens quickly. The Water Temp page on this site shows the Lakeport Dam at 38 as of today. On Sunday when I was there, there was almost no open water on the shoreline of Merrymeeting. Now you can see it is at least 20' out. http://65.175.138.198/view/view.shtml |
I just got back from an airboat ride to Mark from Cattle Landing. It is open all the way across to Bear (small strip approaching Bear). There is 5" of wet, broken ice between Cattle and Mark. The airboat was having a tough time getting on top of it without breaking through. Coming across from Glendale the ice is strong enough to hold the boat I am told. I took a few cell phone pictures that I will upload later tonight.
Gilford Yacht Club is ice-free to the end of the outer dock and Smith Cove is going quickly. In Alton the ice is past the pavilion. Everywhere you look it is very porous and dark with lots of cracks. |
The docks are free at 19 mile bay. It is open about 50 yards out. 20 Mile Bay is just starting to get some open water near RT109. Ice is looking very Gray now......
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Ice Out
the docks at WAM are mostly Ice free now and the channel looks wide open. there Is some Ice floating around the middle of the docks. I would think It will be totally Ice free by the end of the week.
:D |
From the Ames Farm area the ice is very dark and broken into many medium size sheets. A good wind would start to break this up.
Looking from Belknap Point today toward Welch and Round the gaps are fewer and the ice is not as dark, this will take a little longer. |
Photos!!!!
Photos, we want PHOTOS!!!!
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Don't say I never gave you anything. :coolsm: |
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Pictures as promised. Starting left to right, leaving Mark to head towards Cattle Landing, looking off my dock towards Mink, looking off my deck across to Camp Lawrence, and looking left off my dock towards Bear, to the left of Lawrence.
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I took these at 6:30 am from the house. The ice which was white two days ago off of Rattlesnake turned gray after yesterday's rain. It is difficult to get pictures towards Center Harbor but it also looks gray. Wind is blowing down the Lake so should help move this gray around some.
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Thanks to all for posting pictures. It is unbelievable the progress in the last few days. My 4/17 may not be that far off base.
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Check out winnipesaukeecam - Alton Bay
If you want to actually watch the ice go out click on www.winnipesaukeecam.com and hit the dynamic video option and you will see it heading down the bay
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Top Sides posted the following in the Boats Forum a little while ago:
I noticed Lily Pond had no ice on it today as I drove by, Sure hope that means winnie will have ice out in about a week. From Elacoya beach to Meredith the ice looks very very gray. things could be happening very quickly now.Traditionally should be a week now, I can live with that! |
This morning
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Northwest winds are pushing thinner ice opening rivers.
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Just noticed on blackcatnh.com the water temperature at the 2 foot level is now 40.1 degrees and 36.3 at 10 feet!
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Dark Ice & Open Water
http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1302814646
MODIS Today - April 14, 2011 Thanks Blue Thunder for the great link! :D http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1302815066 http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1302815222 Alton Bay is looking good! :D |
Thanks to all,looks like a ride out to Georgetown to p/u the boat should be undertaken tomorrow and get her ready for a dunk next week..
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Preliminary Iceout Prediction
Conditions are beginning to look favorable for iceout in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame. The ice is now breaking up daily and is about 2 inches thick. It is composed of the late season "candle" crystals that are weakly joined. Within a few hundred feet of its edges, the ice is rolling in the waves rather than holding flat.
A strong late winter blizzard on the great plains is pushing a cold front into the Mississippi River states tonight, a process that is generating severe thunderstorms along the cold front and a change to cold weather behind it. This storm system will track to our west this weekend, initially causing our local wind to increase from the southeast -- a major wave-generating direction for the open lake. The cold front now pushing severe weather through the nation's mid-section will overtake this area on Sunday. It will bring rain, possible thunderstorms, and strong wind gusts to the lake, along with a wind shift into the northwest -- the other major wave-generating direction here. Along with the cold front there will be rain and possible thunderstorms. The combination of weather conditions will significantly reduce the amount of ice in the lake -- perhaps bringing official iceout. The only factor that will not be present are warm temperatures, or this prediction would express greater confidence. Temperatures may dip into the 20s for the next two nights, and we may see a few more snowflakes this weekend also. Despite lack of warm temps this year, the ice has weakened thanks to recent rain and dense fog. The weaker ice will clear out very quickly if we get strong enough wind. It is beginning to look like a windy weekend, with wind coming from the lake's two biggest wave-generating directions. If the wind is able to clear the main lake of ice, some patches may remain in the protected bays. Warmer weather -- near 60 F -- is in the forecast for after Monday. That may be enough to melt any remaining ice. Official iceout is declared by Emerson Aviation of Laconia Airport, when the M/S Mount Washington can reach all of her ports without hitting any ice. I am forecasting a 75% chance of iceout during or within 48 hours after after this weekend's expected stormy weather, and a 90% chance of iceout within the next 7 days. |
Tuesday sounds good to me that is my Ice-out guess :D
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Going fast
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View today from Belknap Point, Welch Island on the right.
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Modis shows Alton Bay and the area towards Lee's Mill are open plus a big area of the lower middle part of the lake but not much else yet.
http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/...esolution=250m |
View from today, taken from Lincoln Park in Gilford. Straight ahead is Round island with a snow-capped Mount Washington off in the distance. Ice out should be soon.:)
http://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h33/Airedale1/ICE.jpg |
MODIS Today
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You're right! Happily, today's picture has much less clouds for a clearer view of the lake. |
Lake water level
I am quite suprised at how low the water level Is Inside the marina. Usually at this time of year It is very high
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Excellence From The Dam...
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Terry ______________________________________ |
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This picture was taken yesterday by a friend, standing at cattle landing looking south towards Bear.
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right where it should be for this time of year, perfect height for getting the dock in next week :D |
Rattlesnake tomorrow??
So what are my chances of getting out of Minge Cove and over to the "quiet" side of Rattlesnake tomorrow?? I can't stand it any longer??:liplick:
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Minge Cove to Rattlesnake
Doubtful, very doubtful. Looks pretty solid from our house overlooking Rattlesnake this morning. If it looks better towards the end of the day I will let you know.
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Rattlesnake Isl.
I have a friend that boated out to the quiet side of Rattlesnake yesterday afternoonm ames Farm. Some ice left below Aligator Point, but all else clear. haven't heard if he got around to other side. He sent a picture, but i haven't posted it yet.
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East Bear Island Access
Hi All,
We've been watching the web cams and all of your comments excitedly from home. Who'd have thought watching ice melt could be so much fun! We were going to head out to East Bear Island on Monday, 4/18 from Smith Cove. Has anyone been out there among the ice flows to know if it's clear enough? Have a great day! EN |
Snake Eyes
http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/a...g?t=1303038970
The lake is open this morning on the Broads side of the island! :D It's supposed to get windy later, which means ice-out could happen today. |
Ice out
I am really enjoying the Ice out cam and reports. If I can't be there physically I can be there in spirit. Will August vacation in Wolfeboro ever come??? Thanks to all who report, send pictures and keep an eye on webcams!
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Rattlesnake Isl Redux
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Friday 3pm Rattlesnake Island, quiet side, below the Aligator Point corner.
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Ice Breaker
Breakwater doing its thing this morning.
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Blue Water view
It is so exciting to see the sparkling blue water again. Makes the wait until May (when I make my first trip of the year to the lake) even seem longer! :coolsm:
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We are so jealous! |
Friends of mine are on Mink Island. They came out of Shep Browns, boy am I jealous! Couple of more days and i'll be there, YEA....
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Rattlesnake report
Just got back from Rattlesnake--Came out of Minge Cove and did not see any ice in sight. Winds came up pretty brisk so opened up camp and headed back to shore-- Boy did it feel good to be out there!!! Took the scenic route home by way of the Weirs--The only ice I spotted was in the Weirs--they seem to be socked in pretty well!! Well back to work until Friday and then the entire week at the island!!!!!:liplick:
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Just to let people know, there is still ice on the lake in places...Center Harbor still had a good amount of ice today, although it changed significantly in 24 hours, so it definitely will not be long in that area. Yesterday around 6pm, the Mount was iced in a bit, but today had some water around it. It looked as though many areas north of the Beaver Islands and Black Cat Island still had some good amount of ice, but that was changing quickly as the day went on.
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First photo is looking at the broads from harrillas, second is looking at 19 mile bay from the hole in the wall and third is comming out of the hole in the wall. Couldn't make it to the camp.
Meredith still has ice, Center harbor still has ice, the barbers pole was clogged up with ice. the wind was blowing so hard that it wont be to long. Maybe next weekend? |
Ice Out???
Went to Rattlesnake today, both sides. no ice in sight on either side. Photos attached. First is from east side looking towards Wolfeboro, etc. Second is looking towards Sleeper
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Ice out?? Redux
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Sorry forgot to upload. First looking east from Rattlesnake. Second looking west from other side of Rattlesnake
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Heading to Three Mile
I want to try to get to Three Mile Island from Y-Landing sometime later this week. Can someone from Pine or Bear give me an ice report for the area between Pine and Y-Landing, and heading over to the southeast corner of Three Mile? Thanks.
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to dhuberty24
Thanks for the great pics from the hole in the wall. We're anxiously awaiting the ice gone at 19 mile bay and this is a great visual. Thanks for taking the time.
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thanks for the great report from Harillas and Hole in the Wall. I like to use these areas early in the season but there are no cams in that area so it's an "information black out" area. Please keep the reports from this area coming - I'm planning on being up there on Friday.
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I think we all need a report from Flyguy?
What ports are still iced in and which ones are open? |
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