Winnipesaukee Forum

Winnipesaukee Forum (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/index.php)
-   Covid-19 Discussions & Information (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=43)
-   -   Unvaccinated home maintenance workers (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27445)

SailinAway 09-08-2021 03:28 PM

Unvaccinated home maintenance workers
 
I'm bringing this up as an update to the other closed thread. In hopes of not closing this one, let me state first that I have absolutely no political intention in raising this question. It is purely about self-protection as it looks like we will be going into a third year of the pandemic.

At this point the rate of full vaccination in New Hampshire remains stagnant at 54% and the state is on another steep upward trend in infections: https://www.covid19.nh.gov/dashboard/overview

We now know that the effectiveness of the vaccines declines after about 6 months. We can't predict the effectiveness of a 3rd booster. We know that vaccinated people can become infected and that both vaccinated and unvaccinated people can spread Covid-19 even if they have no symptoms. The vast majority of people in stores are not wearing masks, even though half of them haven't been vaccinated. Therefore there is no sure way of protecting yourself at this time, especially with Delta now being the predominant strain.

Here's the problem: you can't postpone everything in your life for years. At some point you have to go to the dentist, get your house and car repaired, etc.

Update on my experience: I recently had approximately 15 people on my property inspecting and dealing with my roof replacement and drywall damage. Only two were vaccinated or claimed to be vaccinated; the others said they were not (I asked). So the norm is that trades people are not vaccinated. I later found out that one who claimed to be vaccinated had a long criminal record. When someone says they're vaccinated, you have no proof of that.

At this point, I'm left contemplating doing interior repairs myself---stripping wallpaper, taping and sanding drywall, etc.---along with heavy physical tasks that I probably shouldn't be doing for safety reasons.

I don't think there are any solutions here. Exterior work is one thing, but there's no way I'll hire someone for inside work as long as the pandemic continues and the vaccination rate is so low. It's a sad state of affairs.

Biggd 09-08-2021 05:30 PM

I've been going about my regular activities without a mask ever since I got fully vaccinated. If I'm asked to mask up again I will but I feel as safe as reasonable expected with the vaccine.
I can't be worried about the people that choose to not get vaccinated or wear a mask.
We all have to make our own decisions on how to deal with this based on our health and our beliefs.

iw8surf 09-08-2021 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biggd (Post 361909)
I've been going about my regular activities without a mask ever since I got fully vaccinated. If I'm asked to mask up again I will but I feel as safe as reasonable expected with the vaccine.
I can't be worried about the people that choose to not get vaccinated or wear a mask.

Because youíre a rational human beingÖ..

Biggd 09-08-2021 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iw8surf (Post 361910)
Because you’re a rational human being…..

I like to think so! :emb:

John Mercier 09-08-2021 07:00 PM

You could have checked their vaccinate card... or required that they wear a mask while working on your job.

I have my vaccination - just waiting for when I can get a booster - and get a flu shot each year. But if a customer or business I frequent requires me to wear a mask, I simply put one on.

FlyingScot 09-08-2021 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iw8surf (Post 361910)
Because you’re a rational human being…..

Rational is not taking risks that are not worth it. I expect that I pass unvaccinated people every time I go to the supermarket, but I would not sit down for two hours in a crowded elbow to elbow restaurant.

Similarly, I would not hesitate to have a small number of people in the house for a small important job, or an outside job, but NO WAY would I host a full interior paint/paper.

SailinAway 09-09-2021 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Mercier (Post 361915)
You could have checked their vaccinate card... or required that they wear a mask while working on your job.

I have my vaccination - just waiting for when I can get a booster - and get a flu shot each year. But if a customer or business I frequent requires me to wear a mask, I simply put one on.

After the experience with the handyman who claimed to be vaccinated, I did ask for proof of vaccination of the next person who applied for a job. But I don't believe that most handymen of the Craigslist type will tolerate being asked for proof, so that's delicate.

I think studies show that 6 months after your 2nd shot you only have 50% protection, down from 95%. For me personally, that's a reason to be wearing a mask now.

SailinAway 09-09-2021 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 361926)
Rational is not taking risks that are not worth it. I expect that I pass unvaccinated people every time I go to the supermarket, but I would not sit down for two hours in a crowded elbow to elbow restaurant.

Similarly, I would not hesitate to have a small number of people in the house for a small important job, or an outside job, but NO WAY would I host a full interior paint/paper.

Good points, Flying Scot. And that's my dilemma---the roof leak damaged the drywall. The drywall has been replaced, but finishing it is going to necessitate stripping the wallpaper in the whole room and redoing the entire room, a job that will take several days. For me the risk there is too great and I'll have to do it myself.

mswlogo 09-09-2021 01:42 AM

For dentist and such I go to my home town in MA. 87% vaccination rate (and that was in June). My town and the next town over are the two highest in the state. And MA is one of the higher the country. I hunker down when in NH.

For haircuts I bought a Flowbee, works great :)

There was a really interesting article in The NY Times.

Basically your odds of infection go something like this:

In a high vaccinated location and you are vaccinated itís about 1 in 10,000
In a low vaccinated location and you are vaccinated itís about 1 in 5,000

Now for unvaccinated (you are 10x more likely to get infected)

In a high vaccinated location and you are unvaccinated it drops to 1 in 1,000
In a low vaccinated location and you are unvaccinated it drops to 1 in 500

Hereís the kicker, that lot of stats donít mention.
Those odds are your risk PER DAY.

Say we continue at this rate for another year. Entirely possible.

Divide all those odds by 365.

If you are in a low vaccinated location, not vaccinated over a years time, your odds drop to 1 in 1.4

These are all averages based on actual stats today.
If you never go out your odds are much better of course.

Winilyme 09-09-2021 08:26 AM

In a high vaccinated location and you are unvaccinated it drops to 1 in 1,000
In a low vaccinated location and you are unvaccinated it drops to 1 in 500

Hereís the kicker, that lot of stats donít mention.
Those odds are your risk PER DAY.

Say we continue at this rate for another year. Entirely possible.

Divide all those odds by 365.

If you are in a low vaccinated location, not vaccinated over a years time, your odds drop to 1 in 1.4


I could be wrong but I'm not sure that's the way the odds work. Assuming it's true that you you have a 1 in 1,000 chance to contract COVID on a given day then I believe it's always going to be a 1 in 1,000 chance per day. Each day is a singular event. Your risk doesn't build up over time. If it did, then you'd eventually get to a point where you'd essentially be guaranteed to get COVID. Again...I'm not a mathematician so I could be entirely off base.

Are you going to post any photos of your new Flowbee look?

Winilyme 09-09-2021 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SailinAway (Post 361936)
After the experience with the handyman who claimed to be vaccinated, I did ask for proof of vaccination of the next person who applied for a job. But I don't believe that most handymen of the Craigslist type will tolerate being asked for proof, so that's delicate.

I think studies show that 6 months after your 2nd shot you only have 50% protection, down from 95%. For me personally, that's a reason to be wearing a mask now.

Sorry but you don't want to be working with ANY contractors that you need to tip toe around for worry that they are going to be offended. A good contractor is one that will respect your concerns and do their best to mitigate them within reason (and if they can't, they will respectfully decline the work). If you are not in that comfortable place with anyone you are thinking of working with then AVOID THEM AT ALL COSTS. Do your research, engage with one of the far fewer amazing and professional contractors in your area and get on their waiting list.

FlyingScot 09-09-2021 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winilyme (Post 361945)
[I]

I could be wrong but I'm not sure that's the way the odds work. Assuming it's true that you you have a 1 in 1,000 chance to contract COVID on a given day then I believe it's always going to be a 1 in 1,000 chance per day. Each day is a singular event. Your risk doesn't build up over time. If it did, then you'd eventually get to a point where you'd essentially be guaranteed to get COVID. Again...I'm not a mathematician so I could be entirely off base.

Are you going to post any photos of your new Flowbee look?

I'm pretty good with statistics and probability. I have not seen Win's numbers, but his interpretation is basically correct if the world does not change over the next year or if the changes sort of cancel each other out. The odds do stack up against you over time

Statistically, this is similar to playing Russian Roulette where your chance of death is 1 in 6 in any particular round. You do not have to shoot 6 times to die; and you could shoot 10 times without ever hitting the bullet. But the chances are REALLY high that you will not be able to play beyond 15 or 20 rounds.

So I agree with Win that although every day is a fresh start, unvaccinated people in low vaccinated areas are taking a lot of risk with social interactions over a 1 year period.

I also agree with Wily that we should see some Flowbee pics

SailinAway 09-09-2021 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winilyme (Post 361945)
[I could be wrong but I'm not sure that's the way the odds work. Assuming it's true that you you have a 1 in 1,000 chance to contract COVID on a given day then I believe it's always going to be a 1 in 1,000 chance per day. Each day is a singular event. Your risk doesn't build up over time. If it did, then you'd eventually get to a point where you'd essentially be guaranteed to get COVID. Again...I'm not a mathematician so I could be entirely off base.

Just speaking intuitively, the more you do something the higher your chances of an adverse event, as in if you jump out of a plane with a parachute once versus every day for 10 years. I've noticed this, for example, over a lifetime of hiking and kayaking.

SailinAway 09-09-2021 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 361955)
I have not seen Win's numbers, but his interpretation is basically correct if the world does not change over the next year or if the changes sort of cancel each other out. The odds do stack up against you over time.

For me personally, the logical corollary to those odds is that I do whatever I can to mitigate them: go grocery shopping at 6:30 a.m., wear two masks (found in studies to offer more protection), practice social distancing. Although the emotional terror of the pandemic isn't the same as it was in spring 2020, I'm treating the risk as the same now as it was then. Yes, I'm vaccinated but as the effectiveness of the vaccine declines to 50% over 6 months, vaccination alone isn't enough to mitigate the odds. These other measures will be the norm for me for the foreseeable future.

FlyingScot 09-09-2021 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SailinAway (Post 361960)
For me personally, the logical corollary to those odds is that I do whatever I can to mitigate them: go grocery shopping at 6:30 a.m., wear two masks (found in studies to offer more protection), practice social distancing. Although the emotional terror of the pandemic isn't the same as it was in spring 2020, I'm treating the risk as the same now as it was then. Yes, I'm vaccinated but as the effectiveness of the vaccine declines to 50% over 6 months, vaccination alone isn't enough to mitigate the odds. These other measures will be the norm for me for the foreseeable future.

I agree with your corollary--fewer potential exposures definitely translates to reduced odds to getting sick.

I think you may be too pessimistic when you say efficacy declines to 50%. The numbers I've seen are mid 70s or 80s for Pfizer--still quite good--and maybe no decline for Moderna.

mswlogo 09-10-2021 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winilyme (Post 361945)
In a high vaccinated location and you are unvaccinated it drops to 1 in 1,000
In a low vaccinated location and you are unvaccinated it drops to 1 in 500

Hereís the kicker, that lot of stats donít mention.
Those odds are your risk PER DAY.

Say we continue at this rate for another year. Entirely possible.

Divide all those odds by 365.

If you are in a low vaccinated location, not vaccinated over a years time, your odds drop to 1 in 1.4


I could be wrong but I'm not sure that's the way the odds work. Assuming it's true that you you have a 1 in 1,000 chance to contract COVID on a given day then I believe it's always going to be a 1 in 1,000 chance per day. Each day is a singular event. Your risk doesn't build up over time. If it did, then you'd eventually get to a point where you'd essentially be guaranteed to get COVID. Again...I'm not a mathematician so I could be entirely off base.

Are you going to post any photos of your new Flowbee look?

Here is the article on the COVID risk stats.

NY Times Article on COVID Risk to Vaccinated vs UnVaccinated

Since COVID and Clooney on Jimmy Kimmel a Flowbee is going for double their normal price. I should have done it years ago. I cut it when I want and doesn't cost me anything. I cut it more often now because I hated going and would let it grow to long. Probably paid for itself already.

Check out Clooney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfu4-SZU_E0

trfour 09-10-2021 06:11 PM

Booster= Moderna Covid-19 & Flu Shot
 
Waiting for this; https://www.khou.com/article/news/he...1-2bda77ac34f2

SailinAway 09-15-2021 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingScot (Post 361964)
I think you may be too pessimistic when you say efficacy declines to 50%. The numbers I've seen are mid 70s or 80s for Pfizer--still quite good--and maybe no decline for Moderna.

You're right and I stand corrected.

trfour 09-19-2021 04:18 PM

Update
 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:08 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.