2018 Ice Out Progress
 

Like many who begin getting anxious this time of year and check the webcams several times a day for "clues" of signs of a pending ice out...I am now on the constant web cam watch looking for the sign I find most telling. That sign is from the Black Cat cam where there is a set of rocks in the lower center of the shot. In general, when there is open water out to those rocks, we are on a two weeks to ice out phase. As open water begins...that shot becomes one of my focal points. To this point, there is NO open water even around the rocks telling me we definetly won't see ice out for the April 1 opener.

I'm wondering what others use to guage their ice out estimates and where they now think we are at. Are there any clues that recent rains and wind is accelerating our progress? Any hope for ice out in the first week or two of April???

The ice out watch has begun!

I was out checking water depths this morning for a couple of jobs in and around the black cat island area and we have a firm 22 inches of ice on the lake. It may differ in other locations but not by much. My best guess at this point for ice out will be the first week of April.

Based on what I have seen and experienced on the ice this year, I do feel the ice will go out much quicker than normal. For the past couple weeks old ice fishing holes are opening up to become 2’ - 4’ in diameter making the lake very unsafe to be out on without extreme caution. While this is a normal occurrence, it doesn’t usually happen as quickly as it happened this year. I believe there are a couple of factors that have caused this. The first is the lack of snow cover on the ice for most of the season. The suns rays have really been able to work deep inside the ice weakening it immensely. Digging a hole in the ice a week or so ago at my bob house I couldn’t believe how soft that 20” of ice was! The second reason I believe is the water in the lake is warming quickly. It doesn’t take much just a degree or two to really work at the ice from below and I believe that is happening.

I still think I will be at my Camp come April 1st just not sure if ice out will be declared by then...it will be close.

Dan

Here’s a pic of what the ice looks like today in the broads. Still has a ways to go but as you can see it’s getting that dark gray color....

I always use LILY POND as an Ice Out Indicator. When Lily Pond starts to go, Ice out will be soon. When Ice is Totally off Lily Pond, Winnie will declared ICE-OUT within 7 or 8 days. Not 9 or 10, 7 or 8...

I had picked April 10th for ice out, now it looks at least a week earlier than that. Large dark patches are forming meaning that the ice candles are forming. Each sunny day will melt more ice from the bottom up and the structure will weaken.


Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

I was just wondering if there were still any fishing shanties out on the lake, like in Meredith Harbor, and is there a particular date that they have to be removed? I see from the photos that the ice is beginning to have that look. I appreciate the photos, thanks.

Only saw one
 

As of Saturday afternoon, I only saw one hut out in Ctr Harbor. All huts have been removed from Meredith Bay. Saw them tryiing to get one off the ice earlier in the week using a flat bed at the ramp in Meredith. They extended the ramp of the flatbed out as far as they could but there was still about 10 feet of water between the end of the ramp and edge of the ice. Even with all of the straps and chains, the
Hut literally became a "bob" house until they were able to somehow get it up and out.
Good news though, the ice looked pretty well cleaned off of trash.

Bobhouses have to be off any lake by April 1st. I would imagine that means before midnight on March 31st! April fools!🤡

Wow...I just requested to pick up my boat from storage on April 6 in hopes of spashing her on April 7. I may have to push that up a week if this prediction is true. I'm suprised how many are anticipating IceOut at the beginning of April given reports of 20" of ice. Can't imagine we lose 20" in just 24 days but I like the optimism. I'm hearing a major storm may hit Wed. If heavy snow...I'm hoping that may accelerate Ice Out by pushing the ice underwater but am thinking it could insulate it and slow the process.

Mike,

I think a storm with significant snowfall on Wednesday would be a game changer as it would definitely insulate and impede the thawing process by blocking the suns rays.

Usually I love and want snow but at this point I’m ready for open water and spring salmon!

Dan

The warm weather really opened up the water near the shore around Cattle landing. open water extending a good 20 feet or more. It seemed like it happened in a matter of 3-4 days.

Currently looks like 8"-12" of snow this Wednesday-Thursday.

Of course, they were also saying 3"-5", or 1"-3", or just rain... depending on what time you looked at the reports.


Salmon - yum!

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Travel will be very difficult to
impossible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches are
expected.


This would have been nice a couple months ago, now not so much.

Gotta go and get more shear bolts for the snowblower...:(

Yup...could really screw up the early ice out I was hoping for!

Dan

Good news. Fire up the sled.............:cheers:

Winter fun is pretty much over
 

The thing is about snow this time of year, it is more of an annoyance. There are a lot of bare spots showing and a foot of snow will not be enough to groom or make the ice safe. The high temps after the storm are supposed to be around 40 for the next 5 days so melting will continue. Yeah, it might slow ice out a bit but no hard freeze is in the forecast. Accuweather only predicts one day through the end of March that will be below freezing for a high temp.

I have a dirt driveway and it is muddy now. The guy who plows will not be able to clear it fully because he would dig up the mud. So he will clear the upper layer and pack down the rest. All the rest will be slush the next day.

Yes, my driveway is dirt as well. I plow wth a blade on my Kubota and will need to keep the blade lifted a few inches to avoid the muddy mess below. As you say, the snow will pack well.

Oh Well...
 

So much for my hopeful thoughts of an early April ice out! With the snow cover we received yesterday and the upcoming 10 day forecast for lows in the teens and low to mid 20's, things are definitely not looking good!! Possibly more snow on Monday now too!!

Here is a pic from this morning

Sheesh!...

Dan

It ain’t over til the fat lady sings, Dan!

Congratulations....way to ruin another thread with your insatiable desire to inject politics into any topic!

No politics...just an old saying with a pic of a fat lady! First one that came up when I googled fat lady!
:D:D:D

From the water temperature page, 39-degrees on March 6 is a lot warmer than other years, so what's warming up the water?

Is there a new nuclear power plant hidden away somewhere in Tuftonboro, that discharges warm water in the lake, or what?

There were active water bars flowing water to the lake the weekend of the Winni Derby and they never refroze. Earliest I recall seeing them in many years.

Your right! ...The last time the temperature was this warm at this time of year was in 2012 and ice out occurred on March 23rd! This recent storm and upcoming colder weather is what will extend ice out unfortunately!! :(:(

Dan

Nuclear reactors don't discharge warm water, the cooling towers takes some of the steam/water vapor and turns it back into water. This water along with fresh water is fed back into the reactor and starts the process all over again.
You must of seen the big cooling towers near the reactor.

Cooling towers.... not always
 

Some nuclear plants have cooling towers, but others (like nearby Seabrook Station) don't. Seabrook has a massive tunnel going into the ocean to cool the water.

From the picture link, you can see - no tower! But, I don't think it is close enough to the lake to be the root cause ;)

Seabrook Station discharged warm water back into the ocean after the cooling process. There are intake and discharge lines that extend a few miles offshore. There used to be good fishing in that area :)

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...charge_tunnels

Looks like someone beat me to it!

Your mostly right as Seabrook doesnt use cooling towers but it does have some as a backup for the unlikely evnt of an earthquake closing the intake tunnels.
From an article:
That step requires federal approval because the cooling tower is used as a failsafe in the event a major earthquake closes the tunnels that bring seawater into the plant to cool the reactor.

Good Lord!

4 degrees for a low on Saturday, 7 degrees for a low on Sunday, 9 degrees for a low on Monday, more snow on Wednesday and Thursday.... Being at my camp with an umbrella drink on April 1st is definitely out!! At this rate, I'm hoping to be out there May 1st!!! :eek::eek: I hate the month of March!!

Rant mode off...

Dan

I feel your pain Dan. I'm trying to find a silver lining in all this and it is: all this snow will insultate the ice someone from the frigid overnight temps this weekend and hopefully prevent ice GROWTH. Meanwhile, I'm hoping the ice is being eaten away from the water below. With higher sun and most daytime temps above freezing (except this weekend)...I've got hope that the ice is decaying everyday and that we still see ice out by mid-April (I'm a dreamer).

Boat pickup from storage is March 31....still dreaming....

May not be able to get the boat in on 4/1, but should be able to cast a few lines.

Where was the pic taken at??...

Dan

I drove by Massebessic today and was suprised that the entire west side looks wide open. The east side also looked mostly open with some ice in coves but in front of the park was wide open. I don't usually watch Massy as a sign for how close Winni is to ice out but have to imagine they can't be more than a few weeks apart.

Seeing the open water along the shorelines in the webcams in encouraging as it will give ice room to move in the wind and perhaps crack or weaken...though no signs of that on the big lake yet. I'm disappointed that a few cams are no longer functioning that were major indicators for me. One was Black Cat and the other was in Alton Bay. The remaining cams are not great for progress checking. I may have to take a drive around the lake next weekend.

When I lived in Chester, Massy was my indicator and a great one! When ice was gone at Massy it was exactly two weeks for ice out on winni like clockwork. That is encouraging!

Dan

So you're forecasting ice out in 2 weeks? The lows for the next 10 days are all below freezing. I would think they have to be above freezing with highs considerably higher for ice out.

Berlin was -21 this am without the windchill factor.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

No I’m not as Mike only said ice was mostly gone but not all gone. There will probably be some refreezing with this cold weather. Once ice is ALL gone on Massy it’s has been my experience, or at least for a ten year span, that ice will be out on winni in two weeks thereafter...

Dan

Sort of
 

Yes, it is encouraging that we are getting closer to summer. But, if you have docks on the lake the movement of the ice in the spring can cause major damage. Even if you run a circulator all winter the spring movement of multi ton icebergs can wipe out your dock or damage your waterfront in seconds.

That is discouraging! Been there and paid the price!

If you have an ice eater, controlled by a timer/temperature switch, you may have been surprised yesterday afternoon, about 4-pm, when your ice eater powered up, splishy-splashy, for the first time in maybe two weeks.

What was not so small areas of open water, expanding like 'The Blob', has re-froze back to ice ..... could be this winter's last blast?

If I remember correct, the tropic of cancer for the Unites States, is located between Florida and Cuba, somewhere in the ocean out there; on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 at about 4-pm, the sun will be directly overhead at noon, with 12-hours daylight, and 12-hours night, and marks the start of the spring season by custom in the U.S.

My first Ice out
 

It may be cold outside but I am sweating bullets hoping my dock escapes damage

not tropic of cancer
 

When the sun is over the tropic of cancer the date is June 21, the start of summer. For the start of spring it is over the equator.

picture from Doe point, Methodist circle.https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums...1&d=1521399190

There were still two bob houses on 19 or 20 mile bay over the weekend! :eek:

This is today's view from space once again showing the stark contrast between Winnipesaukee and Sebago which has a very large area of open water.

Yup one is my sons. Twenty two inches of solid ice there.

Not Yet!
 

Looks like it will be another few weeks!

Is there an explanation for the difference in ice between the Lakes? I'm surprised Sebago is so open.

Sent from my [device_name] using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Lake sebago is very very deep.

Thanks.
That satellite picture is remarkable.
Every other lake besides Sebago is ice.

Sent from my [device_name] using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Lily Pond
 

Well I'm depressed...going by Lily Pond this morning it is still locked up tight! Even the shoreline is still solid as a rock not a speck of open water showing anywhere!!

From my vantage point overlooking the big lake it is still fully ice covered and solid. I see zero progress with ice melt over the last three weeks. The lake is snow covered and even most of the shoreline is still somewhat solid! This month of march really screwed us!

My umbrella drink on April 1st at my camp will only happen if I take an airboat out to Welch!!! Does that count??...:D

Dan

:mad: All we can do is hope for a sudden and long warm up starting in a few days. That could change everything. I don't think you are going to make April 1 though.

Buy 30 large boxes of Cheez-its, eat one box a day for 30 days and your depression should go away.
If that doesn't do the trick than do it for another month but increase the dose to 2 boxes a day.
Good luck!

Noodle?
 

Rusty;

Should I be wearing my Walmart "noodle" when doing this?? :eek::D

Dan

Only if it's pink.

Don't make any ice-out plans yet
 

The National Weather Service says it’s possible that the unseasonable weather will continue far into April. (No fooling.)

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/201...R6K/story.html

That’s just not fair!:emb::emb:

In 29 days you should feel better.

Dr. Rusty

Wanted for "deception, lying to the public
 

The six weeks is up and, well, it appears winter is here to stay – at least, that's what one Pennsylvania sheriff's officer is saying after a fourth Nor'easter struck the East Coast.


https://www.wthr.com/article/sheriff...ring-cold-snap


The suspect is described as "about 20 inches in length, 22 pounds, he has brown and gray hair, brown eyes, sharp teeth."


On a more serious note, thanks to "everyone" who is posting updates on what they are seeing around the lake as we wait for the ice to disappear.

Eh I give it three maybe four weeks. It's getting well above freezing every day, that over time will do the trick.

Just looks like we're in for an average late April ice out.

I'm in the minority here. Winter is just to short. Love snow and the fun it brings.

Zero progress in a week......that is all....

Incredible day on the lake today. I love boating but this beats it hands down.

Bright sunshine, no humidity, hardly any wind, cobalt blue sky. no bugs or flies.

No captain bone heads. The sun was still high in the sky at 4pm. Didn't want to leave.

Why is Sebago Lake always ahead of Winni?

Someone had said because Sebago is very deep...

It's also closer to the relatively "warm" ocean air.

Sebago Lake
 

Yes Sebago is dramatically deeper, but it is also spring fed !

Hope this helps,
Bill

I felt that way too, when I was about ten.:D

As the resident Sebago expert, the main reason it only completely freezes 2 out of every 10 years is the fact it has such a wide open expanse of water especially in the area of Big Bay. There is an area that is 315 feet deep but it still can and does freeze over. There were numerous nights of 25-30 below zero in early January. Big bay mostly froze over. The problem is the persistent wind downsloping from the higher elevations. It literally blows the ice off every day. I’ve had ten to fifteen foot high sheets of ice on my beach. Amazing phenomena at times. The lake has a 350 square mile watershed running into it. It is not predominantly spring fed and its proximity to the ocean is irrelevant.

I believe Sebago didnt freeze completely this year.

Very interesting insight and information Blue Thunder. Thank you.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

Ice
 

Not to depress anyone, but I have a friend who was ice fishing somewhere off Spindle Point this past weekend. He informed me that there was still 18" of solid ice there!!...:eek::eek:

I did see a few ATV's and snowmobiles traveling across the broads all weekend. While there may be plenty of ice, I have seen the size of some of the holes that have formed now covered by a little snow I certainly would not be out there!

Dan

Last year....
 

I was on the deck discussing the, what looked like a still solid ice pack, with my brother. The wind picked up and got very strong. All of a sudden everything broke loose in a fury. Huge ice bergs traveling very fast. It was an amazing scene. I remember the news the next day said a lot of docks, left in with circulators, were destroyed.

Could it have been Candle Ice, or some other type of Rotten Ice?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candle_ice

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotten_ice

Things like this always makes me leery when someone says "It's safe, the Ice is 2 feet thick, this is more than enough to be safe!"

No "Ice-out" signs near Weirs Beach, Laconia
 

I own a condo on the "west-facing" shoreline of Weirs Beach, and I have a "Web-Cam" facing down the lake towards Meredith. Other than the shoreline being ice-free from the gas dock to about 100 yards out, and about 30 to 50 feet from the entire shoreline....the lake is solid ice all the way to Meridith. Looks like a good 2+ weeks till "ICE OUT"... Can't wait WINNIPESAUKEEBOB

trying to remain an optimist but I think Bob has the over/under on the nose at two weeks. I'm hoping we can trim a few days off that estimate. While cameras I use to mark some milestones (Alton Bay and Black Cat) are no longer online, I do see that on most web cams the snow cover has now melted from the ice allowing the "more directly overhead" sun to shine its intensity directly onto the ice and into the surface water below it. Sometimes things happen very fast once we are in this state as open water at edges allows for some ice movement such that some wind can cause things to begin to break up and move around. A good rain storm wouldn't hurt either. Next few days in 50s so I'm expecting visible progress. If anyone has a webcam link in Alton Bay...please post it.

It did.....for two days.

This is the only one I know of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM9_0q2Wkbg

Progress
 

Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th...

With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely!

Dan

Dan you have this down to a science. :)

This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future.

When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office.

To clarify my position on that...

If nominated, I will not run.

If elected, I will not serve.

If re-elected, I will again, not serve.

Think I nailed it! :D

Massabesic is a pretty accurate 2 week indicator for the big lake. I agree somewhere around the third week of April is what it's looking like. However I have the first sign spring has arrived. From the wife's garden.

There is hope!!!:):)

Before moving to Gilford a number of years ago, I lived in Chester and had to ride around Massabesic Lake every day to get to work. Being ever so anxious to get out on the island, I started counting the days from when I could see no ice whatsoever on Massy to when ice out was declared on Winni. It was 14 days like a watch almost every year.

Edited to add these pics I just took from Claire's landing at Massabesic. While the Manchester side of the Lake is wide open, the Auburn side still has some ice. Probably about 4 days worth left... Ice out on Winni will be the week of April 16th...

Dan

I know it - first flower of the season means time to pull the commuter boat out of the back yard and get it fired up this weekend.

I still haven't gotten my '18 boat registrations back in the mail.

Can’t wait!!

Lily Pond
 

The edges of Lily Pond were just starting to give yesterday afternoon. :banana:

Dan

Fog .....is chewing up the ice
 

Plenty of fog this morning on Winni. Temp at 42 and climbing. . Fog loves to "CHEW" on ice....I see lots of "CHUNK" ice breaking away at Weirs Beach area and foating down the Paugus Bay chanel near Thurston's Marina.

Solid ice here on Alton Bay with just a little open water around some docks. Sleds still out running over the bay 2 nights ago and again today:eek:. I guess someone knows the thin spots real well or perhaps they like to live dangerously.

Stupidity at its best. Is it really worth it if you end up going through the ice. I just do not understand people sometimes.

Why wait for Ice Out? Apparently someone has a really bad case of Spring fever.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bg7IW2AnoKX/

So...
 

Speak to us about what that means for ice out oh great Ice-trodamus!

Well, it means Lily is finally starting to melt and when the ice is off Lily Pond we usually have one week to go on Winni...

Sounds like a possible truck through the ice near Mark Island. Unreal.

I thought the truck that went through the ice in that area happened several weeks ago. Anyone with a truck on this ice at this point is trying to prove Darwin was right!

Ice has gotten awefully gray on many cams. While I down doubt there is still over a foot of ice in many spots I am betting the integrity of that ice is degrading quickly. Also see a few open fissures on Bear Cam toward Pine and possibly a fissure forming from an old pressure ridge from the camera pointed at Sheps. Rain should speed things even with the temps not helping much the next week or so. Picking up boat next week in hopes of being able to splash her on the 13th....yep Friday the thirteenth.

Reports are that this is a new one. Airboat from tuftonboro is on the way. It's is on facebook. Gotta be true if it's on the internet!

Say hey ..... I saw an air boat slowly going along the west side of Mark Island, on top of the ice, this evening at about 5:30 from a distance of about a mile away.

Was outside raking leaves, and heard the very loud, exhaust sound of a V8-engine with no muffler that goes with an airboat, so's I stopped raking to take a better look with the binoculars. It had some bright yellow panels in the area of the cage that encloses the front area of the large propeller in the stern of the vessel.

Thought ...... 'oh well' ...... and went back to raking the wet leaves .... gotta rake these old leaves!

On August 24, 2006, the Charlestown NH fire rescue inadvertently drowned 64-year old Virginia Cunningham, from Vermont, while transporting her on the Connecticut River in a flat bottom, air boat. Her injury requiring her to be transported was only an ankle injury, and she was drowned dead while secured in a stokes litter, in the bow of the rescue boat.

So's, how's about that ...... talk about a major boo-boo ...... whoopsie-doopsie ....... so sorry!

Whenever I hear the very loud exhaust of an air boat, I recall that 2006 drowning incident and think to myself, dang, that was not a happy ending for a rescue.

Getting back to ice-out progress!

There is still about 12 inches of ice at the beginning of Braun Bay in
front of Far Echo Harbor.

My boat's in the water yay !!!
 

Nick @ Thurstons' Marine put my "Toon" boat in the water @ Weirs chanel yesterday. I'll be up the lake on tuesday mornin, fishing.... YAAAAAAYYYY !!!!

Winnipesaukeebob :liplick:

Good luck, let us know what you get!