Ice Update...or lack thereof
 

Aerial Photo NH posted this yesterday on their FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/aerial.phot...53843836273899

Link
 

That link wouldn't work for me.

yup --- dead link

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Here it is:

Sorry about that..
 

Facebook links do that sometimes. If you aren't on FB or you don't already "like" the page, sometimes you can't see it. Thanks Rusty for helping me out!!

BT

Interesting to see how fast some of the coves & bays have iced over in just a short time (albeit just being a "skim" coat) ...... keeping in mind it was 70 degrees out two weeks ago


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The Southwest side of Black Cat has had some thin ice moving in this morning. One stiff breeze would probably take it out but it's a start.

this could be a tough year to predict ice out. One would assume real early but if cold weather hits late feb and march could slide into April

Wonder what it looks like Monday after the 1-2 inches of rain we get...........

I'm not really a weather guy, but I think ice out is more a factor of February and March more than anything. Unless we have an unseasonably warm winter, the water eventually gets to roughly the same low temp and develops a thick ice layer. It's the ides of March that factor ice-out more than the lead-in (again, IMO).

Right now the experimental long-term forecast looks like we will have an "average" winter:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre...s/WK34temp.gif

My very speculative guess right now is that ice-out will fall right around the median date in the 3rd week of April.

No Ice Walking
 

Me thinkest I shalln't be walking out to our camp on Rattlesnake this February.

Rapid ice formation..
 

I was amazed after driving down Weirs Blvd this morning. I saw some small scattered patches of very thin ice BUT 2 hours later I'd say most all of Paugus is now ice covered. It's not going to last but it shows that the water is ripe for freezing. No wind or sun makes the difference.
It's coming, but it won't start till Monday. Sunday will not be good for those wanting ice. Lots of wind, rain and temps near 50.
Next shot for snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

I was stunned today to see the same thing on Paugus Bay...almost completely ice covered! However, from the looks of the forecast, Monday morning you might see some boats out there.

I do think that Feb and March have a lot to do with it but I think if January is real cold it builds a thinker layer of ice. But what I really know is it is 24 days to the ice out contest

ice in
 

I saw a snow covered Moultonboro Bay and Wentworth is also snow covered but I saw yesterday that the ice looked thin. Where is real winter? We may break a January "heat" record tomorrow here in Boston. Boston, let's beat last year's record snow!

brk and PBF stated it well.

I've watched the ice start to form, disappear, reform, and disappear in front of my house several times this week. The winds, rain, and temps tomorrow will eliminate much of what is out there.

However, the water temps are right on the edge and it won't take long for the ice to form and thicken if we get an extended period of cold. The forecast shows no temps above freezing for a long period, starting mid-next-week. That should start things going. But it will be slowed by accompanying strong winds. As always, it will be interesting to watch.

Ice seems solid in and around suissevale. Its clear ice, maybe a few inches. I walked on it, of course not out far. If I went though It would've to gone to my knees maybe. However there no cracking or noise at all, like standing on solid ground. Last week it was just skim coated in spots.

Ice Out
 

Better yet, "calling it now"...NO ICE IN!! :):):D

Waukawan
 

I went by Waukawan on Saturday and there was a guy ice fishing not far off the boat ramp and a couple of people skating out towards the middle. Also a couple of those wind surfers were out there. Crazy if you ask me. We have not had that many cold days/nights

The front is just passing...cue the wind!

If there's any ice left the incoming winds will take care that. Dropping temps but lots of wind to go before the ice formation starts again.

Ice Not
 

We drove past Winnisquam this afternoon and all the ice that had been forming in the body of the lake was gone. The combination of wind, rain and heat really set everything back. If we don't get sustained (very cold) weather the seasonal events will soon be at risk.

Jetskier:cool:

Look at the forecast. As long as the winds (ideally lack thereof) cooperate, I'd predict most of the lakes will be skimmed over by next weekend.

Much to my amazement .... we saw 4-6 people fishing on Lily pond Saturday and that included one of them running around on a Quad !


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Stupid is a four season sport, you can find people playing advanced levels of Stupid any time of the year.

That's been frozen for almost two weeks now. It probably has 6"+ of ice...

Lily is wall to wall ice. On this morning's sunrise drive I saw a perfect sheet of glass on Lily Pond. The next time you see water on Lily it will be about a week before Ice Out on the big lake.

F&G said there was 4" on White Lake- lots of fishing going on there.

Last year they were calling for a record ice out date in mid May. Things can change quickly.

Alton Bay has ice from the town beach to Sandy Point, then some open water at the markers at the point, then about a quarter mile of ice across the bay, then open water presumably the rest of the way out the bay.

I live here... I am always Upthesaukee.

Also, there is one bob house on the ice right off the beach. Someone has to be first ;) .
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I live here... I am always Upthesaukee.

19 Mile Bay
 

19 Mile Bay is socked in with a thin skim of ice.

I think the lake will look much different come sunrise tomorrow...:look:

After all the rain and warmth yesterday, the winds were howling all last night and most of today. No ice to be seen anywhere on Merrymeeting despite much of it being covered in ice a few days ago.

But it's cold now with no above freezing temps showing in the forecast (well...ok, they show Fri and Sat at 33 :-) ). Once the wind settles, things will happen quickly.

There was 5+ inches of ice on the section i tested. You can find people being advanced levels of stupid, from their arm chair, any time of year!

There's more to ice than just the thickness alone in a given section.

The wind was howling all day today (and still tonight)! Even the thick, rolling, slush along the shorelines disappeared today. No ice in sight anywhere on Merrymeeting.

Though as I've expected before, if the wind dies, it will come in quick.

Pretty decent view from space today of the big lake and Sebago..
BT

Thursday 1/14 report
 

Today, Wolfeboro and Winter Harbor were open. Nineteen and Twenty Mile bays were frozen in. There were fishing shacks and people fishing on Mirror Lake.

A couple hours ago Paugus was still wide open. I just looked again and I'm happy to say parts of Paugus are now skimmed over with ice. No wind and lots of cloud cover.
This could be the day for ice as today's forecast calls for continued calm winds, limited sun and cold!

Funny, I was just looking at the long-term forecast and state of the lake right now and was going to say Feb 2 is probably about the time we'll have end to end ice thick enough to be safe.

Meredith Bay Wide Open
 

As of 9:00 am Meredith bay is still wide open. Pond hockey in 20 days?

if it forms today and tomorrow, there is still a chance

ice in ?
 

Has there ever been a winter where the lake hasn't reached "ICE IN"... just curious..

Since there is no official criteria for "ICE IN" hard to answer that question, however there have been years where the lake did not completely freeze and there were areas of open water that survived the winter.

As of this morning at 10:00, Paugus Bay is wide open. Shot taken from South Down marina.

Interesting question that we had as well .... but given that the various bays no doubt freeze up every year there is no correlation to Official "Ice Out" and whether the Lake ever completely froze (safely) over or not .... other than personal memories.




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Not sure if it was official but in '98 or '99 (I forget which) the broads did NOT freeze over.

Given the 2 week outlook weather-wise, it looks like a lot of ice will be made!

You can see my house from there!

I still have ice building slowly from my shore line and the coves. Along Weirs Blvd the ice is out to ~75 yards. but the rest is open water.
This was earlier, looking south towards Lakeport.

I thought I saw you outside when I was taking that image ;)

1st Bob house on 19 mile bay
 

There is one bob house on 19 mile bay.

Not to start an argument, but I was under the impression that the criteria for ice in was that the Mount was no longer able to make it to its normal ports of call. Not sure if the entire route needs to be frozen or just a good portion of it, but that's my understanding. :)

Ice Update...or lack thereof
 

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...ce802d511b.jpg

No ice on Sunday as far as the drone can see!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I believe that ice-in has historically been when the lake is complete frozen over solid enough for it not to blow out the next day (a skim coat can disappear overnight with a few degree temp change or some wind). The definition that you gave is the reverse to ice out (the lake does not have to be completely clear of ice to have ice-out called).

I am not a winter person - but I don't know what I will do with myself in April if I don't have ice to watch melt. :cool:

With apologies to Rod Stewart...


Tonight's the night

Gonna freeze alright

'Cause it's freezin' up

Ain't nobody gonna stop it now...

Wow... I'm stunned that last picture was taken today at Winnie given the calm conditions. Here in northern Mass the wind has been howling since that little snowstorm blew through. Right now I'd guess the win is a constant 15-25mph with higher gusts.

Even the little protected ponds around here are having trouble locking up.

Cheers..

Gusman

It was taken on Sunday. It mentions that at the bottom of the picture.

Ohh it stopped....Not seeing anything on the cams.

Lake Wentworth
 

After skimming over on January 5, a large pool of open water has appeared between the RR causeway and the Sister Islands.

It moves around a bit with the winds, and has shrunk and grown over the past week. This morning, with a typical NW wind howling, it's quite large.

The area between Stamp Act and Heath/Townsend Shores, down to Warren Sands, remains frozen solid.

Kinda weird. Maybe the reptilians have moved their underwater base to Fuller's Deep?

No ice on the lake but plenty on my dock
 

With the crazy winds and frigid temps the past few days my dock is covered in about a foot of ice due to waves and spray. I posted a few pics

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jpcole...h/24504152275/

Winnie is partially obscured by clouds but you can see enough to know that the wind is not our friend for building ice....

BT

BT, love those shots!

Video Clip
 

Here's a video clip from my web cam taken just a few minutes ago...

https://video.nest.com/clip/b36b2c9a...835bf420e2.mp4

Hard to believe its January 20th and not a speck of ice even around the edges!!:emb::emb:

Dan

No wind-more ice
 

Now that the wind has backed off, and the snowstorm talked about for the upcoming weekend of 1/23 is now going to slide south of NH and out to sea, we should be seeing an intense uptick in ice. The weather is cold, with little cloud cover there is a lot of radiational cooling. The Derby is 24 days from now-plenty of time to make nice, solid ice.

Meredith Bay
 

Anyone know if Meredith Bay is frozen over? There arent any webcams of Meredith Bay, and views of the more open parts dont tell the whole picture. I was really hoping Pond Hockey Tournament would take place on the big lake, but I've just about lost hope. Hopefully things will be ready for Fishing Derby at the very least!!!

broads
 

I just don't see low enough temps in the next 10 days to form ice on the broads. December was too warm.

Its not frozen over.

Close...but not yet
 

This morning's sunrise revealed an ice covered Paugus Bay. The winds were calm. As the sun rose, so did the wind. By noon it was back to water. This is a time lapse from just after sunrise to noon.
http://youtu.be/bTlR6-iWYvI

So, what does everyone think the chances are that the Pond Hockey tourney will actually be played on Meredith Bay this year? Two weeks from today is player check-in. Is it enough time for Mother Nature to do her thing or are we playing on Waukewan this year?

Thanks,
Tim

Two weeks would be plenty of time normally to make safe ice if Mother Nature cooperated.

While we have a couple cold days coming up, the expected warm up early next week with temps nearing 40 degrees by Wednesday certainly don't and won't help! The extended forecast also calls for another warm up between January 31st and February 3rd with temps again nearing 40 degrees during the day...who knows?... this is the wackiest non-winter I have seen.

My guess is...I just don't know! :confused:

Dan

I think it would be nearly impossible to have enough ice to have the tournament on Meredith Bay. They require 12" of ice.
My question now is how the lack of ice will affect spring/summer salmon fishing?:

I think if they try it they are being foolish....What does Waukewan look like for ice thickness? I don't thing that I would want to be on any pond right now.

Winnipesaukee Jan 21
 

Some shots from today at 4000'.

Apologies for the quality, my phone takes terrible pictures.

Coming your way... maybe!
 

According to the UK BBC... you've got the possibility of some serious weather heading along the Atlantic coast! Maybe even making it's way to the lakes?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35374741

but then again it could be wrong... Brit weather forecasts are not reknowned for their accuracy!

Hey dustoff,

Is that traffic on your nose or have you been smashing bugs? :D

Something on the inside of my phone's camera lens. Shows up in all my pictures. Nice, huh?

Maybe a foo fighter...

Driving through Meredith today the bay looked liked it looks in mid-April instead of late January.

Thin ice indeed at the Wolfeboro town docks 1/21...

Yesterday morning, I watched a mink running over the very thin ice in front of my place near Horse Island. The ice was so thin, close to shore, that the mink fell through a couple times, but did not seem to be troubled by this at all.

Today, what little thin ripply ice that was there yesterday is all liquid non-ice today.

With five straight days of sunshine forecast ahead, maybe the warming effect of the sun will start up the lake water, warming process?

Usually, the ice com-eth and go-eth, before it decides to stay-eth ....... but not yet this year-eth?

Ice huts
 

Three ice huts in Meredith bay this morning

View of The northeast after the last storm moves off shore. You can see the drastic cutoff with this winter storm's snow fall.
You can clearly see Winnipesaukee and Sebago.

Ice
 

Looking at 10 day forecast and there is NO WAY ice will form in broads this year. Bummer!

I think I could have left the boats in for another month! Knew december was too early!

For all those bemoaning the lack of snow and ice this year...how quickly we forget.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/201...nmK/story.html

is there enough ice on lake Waukewan for the pond hockey classic?

I've heard reports of anywhere from 10" to 12" as of Friday. I've also seen pictures of them with tractors out there clearing snow for the rinks so I'm thinking yes. I know temps are forecast to be a bit high this week and next, but the overnight temps look to be below freezing so hopefully we'll be ok to skate next weekend.

there are just four bob houses out there in Meredith Harbor today and they're close to shore. With more mild temps expected in the coming week it makes me wonder if they'll be able to have the Fishing Derby....or will they just fish at other lakes that are more safe??

Ice Access
 

In relation to this topic, if we ever do get a true ice-in, does anyone know the best ice access from the mainland to get to sleepers island? My wife and I just got a piece of land out there in October and need to clear several large trees. I was looking to clear the trees before spring as it is easier to cut up trees without leaves on them. I was going to walk out with the chainsaw, but don't know a good place to park my truck, legally. Any suggestions would be great.

Thanks

I am not suggesting that I am standing on an Ice Berg.....

Care to elaborate on your displeasure with my comment?

Make sure you have adhere to the point system. Folks will drop a dime on you quickly.

Governor's Island Ice Conditions
 

Good Morning,

Does anyone have any ice conditions for in and around Governor's Island? Any Ice fishing going on around the island?

I have a military surplus silent chainsaw and nightvision goggles if you want to borrow.

Ice Fisher - Here's a shot taken just now with my Skype cam across Wentworth Cove. That's Governor's Island across the cove. The bridge would be on the left. It doesn't look very promising. I won't be taking the sled out on the ice this year I suspect. I hope I can at least get out to fish.

Thanks. Heading up Next Thursday was hoping there would be enough ice to walk on and set some tip ups

Today's MODIS view
 

Looks like quite a bit of ice on the sat photo today..

I'm heading up next Friday. Hoping for good conditions!

We can certainly hope for the best!. Got another week of potential ice making!