Increased Year-Round Population?
 

The 100% restaurant opening thread elicited some thoughts that permanent-lake-resident friends of mine have expressed: will people from cities who can work remotely now move here full time and, if so, how will that affect the area? Specifically in terms of schools, community services, healthcare, etc. (Given that these people would've been here in summer anyway, those things that would be affected would be winter resources.)

Does anyone know if school registrations have increased? What other data might reveal this shift if it were happening and, if so, how might the area be affected?

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I think it’s a bit to early to see that. Once this thing blows over and a new “normalcy” exists, there will still likely be an office presence requirement for many. Most house holds in Massachusetts are dual income earners and the likely hood both spouses will work remotely all the time seems slim. While I’m not one of them, I know some people with second homes here that love the summers at the lake but have no interest in being here in the winter.

Increased Year-Round Population?
 

I can tell you this. I have moved from New York to the lakes region permanently but I had planned this for a while as we wanted to make the move when my son entered high school this year. my new neighbor sold his home in the Boston area and is also permanent. Additionally I have friends looking at home this weekend in my area and I was in the sales office yesterday and they had 2 newly retired NYPD looking in my community.


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You may be right in the long-long-term, but I'm thinking school registrations might be a good indicator of "summer" people who have moved to the area "permanently."

I know many of my friends' companies have decided to be remote until at least January.

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I have seen an increase in out of staters looking to buy in the lakes region for a permanent move.
I met a real estate investor/developer last weekend at Lago's last weekend and he had an interesting take on things.
He's sold everything he owned in the Boston area and now rents in the lakes region. Says he's sitting on the sidelines and and is ready jump back in when everything bottoms out.
Is he right?

I have had a lot of my customers tell me this summer that they have sold their primary homes out of state and are staying full time as I have also seen the school enrollments increase here and in the northern part of the state. Its an interesting trend and I am sure a culture shock this winter for many that have planed to stay.

Congrats on your relocation. I'm trying to convince my wife to make the move but there aren't too many year rounders in my neighborhood.

Thank you. A long time coming. We are about 50/50 so for me it’s a good mix.


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Ummmm...sounds perfect.

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We have friends in Wolfeboro who told us that the high school has 30 new students this year. I live in Gilford and haven't heard anything here.

It sounds perfect but my wife needs people to associate with every day other than me.
I was socially distant before it became fashionable :D
I love the lake in September when the crowds leave.

I have to think 30 is a sizable increase?

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Hahahaha! Understood.

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Would love to see numbers from larger towns like Alton Meredith Moultonborough Gilford and Laconia.


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I think that you have hit it on the head.

Tying in a comment from Thinkxingu -- there are indeed many Companies which have postponed any consideration of return to "normalcy" until after the first of the year (my Company being one of them). Thus, having an easy ability to work remote, I have spent the better part of July/Aug here at the Lake working.

However, to the point of dual income - due to her position my wife needs to periodically go to her office so she stays 2-1/2 days a week back in MA (Sunday nites/ drives up Wednesday afternoons).

As this situation "normalizes" no one can fully predict today what the new Corporate landscape/ work environment will fully look like. We all agree, that the degree of remote staff will be more fully embraced but there are other considerations such as ongoing training of staff, home work environment (kitchen tables don't cut it for a desk long term), day care, and the simple fact that some people are just not disciplined enough to be remote, etc. These are all things that within our Company we are trying to rationalize ( I am part of the Management Team of a Global company). And I can assure you there is no simple blanket answer.


One thing for sure is that there will be a LOT of office space opening up for rent in MA !!

..... paying the federal taxes with real money?
 

Going into effect for tax year 2018, due April 15, 2019, the federal limit for deducting state and local taxes including the local property tax went from no limit to a ten thousand dollar limit.

So, paying the tax bill on two homes has become .... like paying taxes with real money .... :eek: .... ?

That's only a little more than seven students per grade

I would think they'd be able to absorb the increase without much trouble or additional resources.


There's also the likelihood that some students are leaving the district as well.

I think school enrollments are for sure a good indicator, but they skip the group of people that have no children or school age children.

I would think these are the people more likely to move, as moving kids to new schools / away from friends can't be an easy choice.

I keep looking at house sales. For example - single family homes / condos in Gilford from 200k to 500k are ALL under contract save three. Out of 26.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...-200000-500000

I've never seen such a lack of homes for sale here. I've had realtors knock on my door and say they just sold two homes in the area for X, and I can get you Y right now cash no contingencies. Where the people selling their homes go will dictate if the population goes up or down I guess.

Yes, but in a school of 300, that would be 10%. (I don't know how many students are in Wolfeboro, just an example).

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There are just under 900 high school students at Kingswood Regional in Wolfeboro and 2338 in the entire district. The district is comprised of Brookfield, Effingham, Ossipee, New Durham, Tuftonboro, Middleton and Wolfeboro.

Ah, I forgot it was a regional school. It'll be interesting to see what the totals actually are and how their learning plan (remote/hybrid/etc.) affects things.

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There are currently no homes for re sale in my neighborhood, all on the market have recently sold, there are just 2 new builds available with the other new builds sold already. I was in the sales office yesterday and they said there is a tremendous amount of activity on buildable lots. The market here is crazy.

Mcdude is right. So if there are 30 more kids in Wolfeboro does that mean just in Carpenter School and Crescent Lake School which are all Wolfeboro kids? Each town has it's own grammar schools.

I do know the plumbers are getting a lot of request regarding people keeping their houses open for the winter.

Moultonborough school enrollment 2020-21 projected
 

Here is what has come from the school district:
PK 10-20
K. 21-28
1. 35
2. 31
3. 27
4. 30
5. 36
6. 27
7. 47
8. 36
9. 32
10. 39
11. 44
12. 27
Total # of students in district = 442 to 459 PK through 12
Feel free to check my math...not my strongest suit .

pjard (in a post above) said Wolfeboro HIGH SCHOOL. I assume that means Kingswood. Not sure??

Sue how does that number in moultonboro compare to last year . I think it looking a while back enrollment seems to drop every year

I am not sure what last year’s numbers were, but I think these are lower. At one time, we had close to 750 students in the system, and it’s been declining steadily. The school superintendent’s office should have all that information.

I can see a trend that happening where people are nearing or reaching retirement age and unloading their primary and moving into their lake house. We're in our mid 50s and are the youngest couple on our street. I hope the powers that be can do something about the healthcare situation in the lakes region. More older folks in the area, are going to need more doctors

In my neighborhood it's mostly 70's. It seems like it's starting to turn over. All the houses are year round but we have a lot of snowbirds. Their children and grand chidren use the places in the winter for skying and ice fishing.

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I heard a couple of things in town (Wolfeboro) this morning.

One was that several Int'l Brewster kids were not returning and several parents from neighboring states rushed to enroll their kids take their places.

Someone else told me that 40 new kids were enrolled in Moultonborough.

And finally, a realtor shared with me last weekend that a house can come on the market at 9am, and it's in contract by noon. He said most of the buyers were from NY, NJ, CT, and MA. There have been bidding wars, all cash offers, and some very aggressive clients trying to get a slice of the Lakes region.

And for whatever it's worth, according to the New York Times, that did a massive study, 80% of the residents of NH that were not BORN here are from MA.

I feel very lucky to live here year round, enjoy the seasons, and count my blessings.

Gotta keep in mind how much area Kingswood high school covers though.

Ossipee, Effingham, New Durham, Wolfeboro, Tuftonboro and I think Freedom as well.

30 is a drop in the bucket

Real estate
 

With the recent hot real estate market, I'm thinking there is a rude awakening on the horizon. Hearing several stories about offers several thousand over asking without home inspections. When the market corrects, and it will, it always does, there maybe alot of people underwater owing more than the property is worth. I would never buy in a market like this. Best to wait. I think there is alot of people over paying.

See above post as to where new people are coming from. MA , NY and such want at least a moderate population around, so Laconia, Gilford and Meredith will be the first to see a spike (seen by the immediate closing of any property on the market in those areas).

But don’t worry, as saturation and no doubt gentrification occur it will branch out to the ‘Boro’s and further.

Just look at the new builds going up in Laconia, you hear the locals talk all the time (I’m engaged to a true local so am now privy to the talk) that they feel like they’re being priced/pushed out. It’s not quite true yet, but it’s coming.

I don’t think so. My new neighbor paid 50k over asking so as not to lose another house (he lost the last two). All cash, all these deals are. If you can write a check for 650-ish plus closing costs you won’t be upside down anytime soon. Like a realtor recently told me - if you’re not paying cash today go find another realtor.

But you are 100% correct, absolutely everyone is overpaying.

Completely disagree. There has only been 1 real estate correction and not long after the values return to pre correction level and increased substantially. Who says no home inspections? The only way you can go without one is if you buy for cash which is very rare and even if you are buying for cash you should always get an inspection. Also a back will need a home appraisal just because it’s over list it might not be over market.


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So the recession of 2008 there were not thousands owing more than their property was worth and defaulting on their loans. As for no inspections. There are alot of cash deals, I know people who lost out because of that situation. It is happening. Just because you pay cash doesn't mean your not underwater when the value decreases. You will need to hold on until the value returns.

During my adult years It happened more than once. I am now in my third home purchased in an area and time when the market was not experiencing a boom. The first 2 were purchased in a down market after corrections and sold when the market increased after being down.

The point of my original post, alot of people are overpaying now and it will come back to bite them later. I have seen it happen more than once over the last 30 years. Runs in cycles.

Maybe underwater/upside down is the wrong terminology for a cash buyer. What I meant was even if you paid cash, if the market corrects and property is worth less than you paid you lost money, unless you hold on until values return.

Taz, you are correct. We can recall at least 2 or 3 corrections in the real estate market in our time up here. Each time, the market has recovered and gone higher than pre correction. It’s cyclical, and it’s almost inevitable that another correction will be here sooner or later. Today’s prices are just plain crazy....wonderful for those wanting to sell....but you are probably right in your prediction that there will be people under water with their mortgages, sad to say.

I said once and that was it and values have long since surpassed pre 2008 values. Name the other tome in history we’re there was a “correction “ in values. Not just a slight 1-5% decline a true correction? There has been no other time.


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Sure, you’ll have some exposure, but I don’t think too much as the market won’t go down soon (speculation on my part). And if you can toss around 2/3 of a mil cash you really don’t care.

Cash deals are not At all rare these days , they are prevalent. Inspections are of course done for insurance or peace of mind reasons but are not conditions of the sale, atleast on the properties I’ve seen.

We're one hour east of Portland in the Columbia River Gorge....now that people can work at home, and Portland is literally being burnt to the ground, the real estate sales are going haywire out here....houses being sold within a few hours of going on the market for substantially more than asking price....sometimes sight unseen.

The world is so different from what it once was even back in 2008. Heck look at the stock market. Five months ago when this pandemic started I don’t think anyone would have projected it to at 28,000 where it is now. Nothing makes much sense. The thing fueling real estate thru this whole upswing for the past decade Has a lot to do with interest rates. Money in cheap. Is there a correction coming. Yup soon as that interest rate gets back up 6-7%. But who knows when that comes. By in large homes on the water suffer much less. People always want the water.

I even if the rates go up to 6-7% I do not believe there will be a significant correction (over 10%). The real estate market would slow down but it would be nothing like 2008. Only an unpredictable outside influence would cause a significant correction such as what happened in 2008.


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Exactly! I’m looking forward to the quiet.

The stock market has been boosted by gambling day traders. With no sporting events to gamble on gamblers have turned to day trading. A gambler has to get his fix somewhere.
On a side note, I just got my new assessment from the town of Meredith in the mail yesterday, up almost 18%!

To me a house is a home. I could care less about appreciation or depreciation as long as I can afford to live in it that’s all that matters to me. A home is part of my skin. A place of respite and for family and friends and memories.

I am trying to make our new house here in N.H. my “home” after leaving our family home in NY behind. It’s going to take awhile I see.

That is true but no one wants to see the value of the home drop like a rock. That being said, if you're there for the long haul it always comes back.

I just did the same. Left NY officially in July and making my NH house my home. My move from NY has been planned for several years it was not a result of the pandemic or ruination of NYC by its inept Mayor although it is extremely sad to see especially since my company had helped build the city. [emoji22]


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Ups and Downs
 

I've seen small market corrections along the way. We bought our forever home at the lake in 2016 after multiple condos. The house was on the market for two years and no buyers. The house was only seven years old and in really good shape. We purchased for 20K under asking price. Now things are on fire and a another home on our street sold for 20K over asking.

The Breeze

I also bought back in in 2014 for 40K under list after the home had been on the market for over a year. Prices started creeping up around around 2016 but it really turned to a sellers market over the past couple years. Now things are just plain crazy!
We've seen these kind of things back home for about 6 or 7 years now but I've never seen it like this in the Lakes region and I've been coming up here for 50 years.
People are flush with cash, never seen so many cash sales.

Been reading this post over the past few days and would not disagree about limited supply and prices. With that said, just yesterday I received a letter from the town of Meredith saying property assessments have been completed and mine is lower! Go figure


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Lucky you, mine went up 18%! I've fixed the place up but no additions to the property and I never let them in the house.

Same...
 

Our assessed value went up over $200K and we haven't done a single thing to the place the whole time we've owned it. Will be interesting to see if they play with the rate, such that the tax bill doesn't change, but I highly doubt it

Correct. Never let them in!


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Congrats!

Very interesting as well. Are you on the water? Perhaps there is a shift in their estimates between waterfront and non-waterfront?

Moultonborough has just reassessed the town. Property increase yet again, This time a "new" depreciation" schedule is being used for the first time and it is impacting building values significantly. People need to really look at their property cards. Check the amount of depreciation percent last year vs. this year. Changes are significant. Last year lakefront got hit with a 16.7% increase across the town. This year it is another 2+%. But now building values are being pushed higher with a much lower depreciation schedule. UGH.....

Increased Year-Round Population?
 

No. Just a empty building lot. Good question, higher waterfront then in town.


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I can't complain because I'm still well below market value.
When I bought 6 years ago the realtor told me properties were selling right around assessed value which is what I paid. Assessed value has gone up 30% from when I purchased.

Someone has to pay for that new library! :rolleye1:

Don't forget the Mc-DPW building too

Good point -- and not only more doctors, more comprehensive service. Case-in-point: My brother and his family recently spent a week in Moultonborough. His daughter (11) developed an inflamed appendix, and the team at Huggins in Wolfeboro couldn't do the operation, so they sent her to Manchester--which is a $5,800+ ambulance ride.

We had the same issue with my father when he lived in Tuftonboro. He came down with pneumonia and a-fib, and the local hospital sent him (via ambulance) to Catholic Medical Center in Manchester.

Huggins is a great hospital, and nearly every one of my family members, from my grandparents to my kids...and me, have had some kind of service there, but the area providers need to be able to offer a broader portfolio of services--particularly with a growing elderly population.

Of course, all this requires money. It's American healthcare.

I'm not so sure. If I needed an ER, I'd want for Huggins to be full portfolio of emergency stuff. But if I had time on my side just a bit, I'd prefer a busier hospital with more regular occurrence of whatever I had.

A good point. Just saying that an aging population might require more of those specialized services. Again, also requires inordinate levels of ($) resources. And the Huggins ER is great! Been patched up there myself.

Don’t know the circumstances but they have 2 general surgeons on staff and appendicitis is a routine surgical procedure done on a regular basis on pedis and adults. One of them should have been on call !

I hear ya! We have also planned for years. I was forced to resign my job in 2018 At age 62 and my husband retired 12/31/2019. He is 66. That’s the date we closed on our N.H. house and we moved in February. Our 32 year old son- single and our only child- has been up in Plymouth for 10 years already. Went to college there and never came home.

Our home in Sullivan County, NY never really appreciated like you would think, though we did at least get back our remodeling costs from the past 10 years. But it was now or never to make the move. What we purchased in The Weirs compared to what we owned in NY is no contest. The NY home on 10 1/2 acres of land was so much Bigger and better, but was time to downsize. It cost us just as much for this little house as we got for our NY house. Ok- it is new construction and cookie cutter- but still...

It’s noisier, no privacy, no land, but a house and community we can age in. I can’t go through moving again. It was exhausting! And I don’t think the homes in the community I am in appreciate that much. Just judging by the few resales I have seen here.

I’m with you about the mayor (and the Governor of NY). We also had some other factors where we lived that we wanted to get away from. I hope NH can hold onto its independent and live free or die constitution.