Tough times/ Bad Economy
 

Wrote a post here, and changed my mind. Was not able to simply delete it, which is why you are reading this now. Wiped out the whole thing, but the computer kept asking me for 10 letters.

Changed your mind about posting about a bad economy,huh?.....must have been thinking about an Obama presidency

doom and gloom
 

samiam...I changed my mind, because it was a lengthy, fact based post, about the current state of the economy, and specifically the lakes region. Mostly negative, and I just decided it really served no purpose.
My motive for it was reading all the posts on this board, saying things like "times really are not that bad", "the poor economy is just media perception", "the worst is behind us". And I just don't get it. So last Friday, I went out of my way to speak to every establishment I visit regularly, and just mention in passing, "hey, how's biz".
What I got???? Horror story after horror story. Marinas (I spoke with two), restaurants, butcher shop, campgroud, etc.,etc. Story after story of unpaid slip/valet fees, calls from people stating not to put their boat in this year, restaurants cutting way back on staff...it goes on and on. The original post was quite lengthy, giving specific examples and quotes...but posting them is probably not the right thing to do. I don't believe a business owner would want to read this board, and see something about one of his employees telling people how bad things are.
But, to anyone who says things are getting better, or were not that bad to begin with...just ask around a bit.

I am in the Internet business, best year ever! Seems that the high cost of oil maybe causing business to incorporate more efficiencies into there company, thus driving the need for IP connectivity!

Most retail business can be hurt with a slow economy, but it goes up and down.. remember here folks that as the baby boomer's start to get planted, their large wealth will be passed down, this will create the largest economic growth our country will ever see!

Key is the hang in there, If you running a business you need access to capital, afford capital that helps you weather the difficult times. If they failed to plan or gain that access, it could be part of a bad business plan.

There is no question that many folks are hurting economically and for some I really do feel sorry for. However I can't help but not really feel to bad for the majority of people out there as many suffer do to their own financial irresponsibility.

Sad thing is for somebody like myself who doesn't make a ton of money, yet manages to put away a substantial amount of savings instead of living beyond my means is going to get screwed paying for all the irresponsible ones.

I agree
 

One theme that seems to keep repeating itself is that I will be talking to someone, friends, family. associates, and they will tell me about some financial hardship they endured. I go "Oh my God, that's too bad". Then the conversation continues and I go "You did WHAT????" and I realize that a large part of their problem they brought upon themselves.

One friend got some stock options from a company and didn't know they were taxable. He used the money to buy his house.The IRS was all over him and he almost lost his house.

I know several people in construction that are wonderful at building things but are extremely poor at tracking their costs and billing appropriately. They went out of business.

My daughter's friend buys a motorcycle and doesn't realize what the monthly payment will be. Takes delivery and gets his payment book. Guess what, HE CAN'T AFFORD IT!!

How many conversations have we had on this forum about how property taxes work and how some could afford the property but are blown out of the water when the taxes go up.

I truly fell pain for all these people. I actually lent money to the friend with the IRS trouble so he could keep his house. But THEY WERE CARELESS AND FOOLISH. Occasionally circumstances will overwhelm even the best of planners but it doesn't happen that often.

I agree with Maxum in that I really get annoyed when people make foolish decisions and then the government pops in and wants to tax me to cover their mistakes. If you never have to cover your own bets why would ever stop gambling? :(

Something To Think About...
 

Sa Meredith - the scenrio you highlight will, and has happened under all economic conditions. The free enterprise system is doing "it's thing" and happens to be working a bit harder right now. Typical economic cycle. Nothing to get over excited about. I love hearing that businesses are laying off people to "tighten their belts." Should they always try to operate with a tight belt? On another note, here are some facts to try and make any nay-sayers feel better as I ask: "What are we so unhappy about?'

A. Is it that we have electricity and running
water 24 hours a day, 7 Days a week?

B. Is our unhappiness the result of having
air conditioning in the summer and heating in the
winter?

C. Could it be that 95.4 percent of these
unhappy folks have a job?

D. Maybe it is the ability to walk into a
grocery store at any time and see more food in
moments than Darfur has seen in the last year?

E. Maybe it is the ability to drive our cars
and trucks from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic
Ocean without having to present identification papers
as we move through each state?

F. Or possibly the hundreds of clean and safe
motels we would find along the way that can provide
temporary shelter?

G. I guess having thousands of restaurants
with varying cuisine from around the world is just not good enough either.

H. Or could it be that when we wreck our car, emergency workers show up and provide services to help all and even send a helicopter to take you to the hospital.


I.. Perhaps you are one of the 70 percent of Americans who own a home.


J.. You may be upset with knowing that in the unfortunate case of a fire, a group of trained firefighters will appear in moments and use top notch
equipment to extinguish the flames, thus saving you, your family, and your belongings.


K. Or if, while at home watching one of your many flat screen TVs, a burglar or prowler intrudes, an officer equipped with a gun and a bullet-proof vest will come to defend you and your family against attack or loss.


L. This all in the backdrop of a neighborhood
free of bombs or militias rap ing and pillaging the
residents. Neighborhoods where 90% of teenagers own
cell phones and computers.


M.. How about the complete religious, social and
political freedoms we enjoy that are the envy of everyone in the
world?

Maybe that is what has 67% of you folks unhappy.

Amen. And today a massive foreclosure "rescue bill" (I love the election-year labels) is on track for passage by the Senate. The plan would let the Federal Housing Administration back $300 billion in home loans for borrowers who otherwise would be considered too financially risky to qualify for government-insured, fixed-rate loans.

Translation: Too risky for seasoned lending professionals to loan them their money, but not too risky for our Senators to think it's a good idea to give them our money. :eek:

another amen...
 

... to kjbathe. Let's not forget our economic stimulus checks which our children will be paying back to China long after those new monster TVs are choking up landfills.:rolleye1: The government went from throwing good money at bad, to throwing bad money at bad.

Unfortunately the sheeple in this country are too busy watching mtv or listening to their ipod to fully understand the ramifications of the two stimuli bills. One has passed (the tax break) and the housing rescue which will pass (hopefully Bush will veto). I do not want to pay for anothers mistake. Lets not even get into oil. The only good news about high oil prices is any talk of raising gasoline taxes is quickly shot down and maybe our extremely intelligent congress will open up our coast lines and mosquito factory in Alaska to oil drilling. Cudos to the Clinton administration for not allow us to explore these areas for domestic oil production.

Ugh. How many times does it have to be pointed out that opening up more areas to drilling will have NO SHORT TERM IMPACT on gasoline prices? Yes, if we open up ANWR, we may be able to realize enough production to curb the price of crude by about $0.50 per barrel... 15 YEARS from now!

Besides, oil companies don't even drill on land that has already been opened up. http://www.kentucky.com/589/story/443005.html

If you want energy independence, you don't look for ways to enable your habit... look for ways to break it.

You do not have to teach me about supply of oil. It will take 10 years to see any supply from these areas, so does that mean we should not do it at all? What do you think will be the price of oil in ten years....200, 300 a barrel. Anything to increase supply is good. Get over it, we are dependent on oil. Do not patronize me or the thought that we should be doing more to supply our own oil. If we had started 10 years ago drilling in these places instead of bending over for the animal huggers, we would be reaping the benefits of an increase in domestic supply. So your "it will take 10 years" lingo does not hold water. We have to start somewhere.

But that's short-sighted: We should not pursue longer-term initiatives because they can't deliver near-immediate results? If we had started drilling 15 years ago, we'd be be done already. But we didn't then, because it would take too long. :)

I know folks are sensitive to disrupting this gloriously-named "National Wildlife Refuge", but in reality we're talking about allowing drilling operations on a parcel of land less than size of Laconia, in a wildlife refuge the size of South Carolina tucked in the northern-most corner of Alaska that already bears a striking resemblance to the surface of another planet. We're not talking about doing this off the front porch of your lake house during Loon mating season.

Regarding the argument that oil companies aren't drilling on land they already have available is because there isn't a sufficient quantity or quality of oil under those leased parcels. Upwards of 60% of the wells drilled in those areas came up dry. DRY. How many dry wells do you expect them to drill? That's why they want to go offshore -- where the oil is.

Finally, China has the ability to drill off the coast of Cuba into a pocket of oil that also sits off our Florida coast. China can take that oil, but our Congress won't allow Florida the option of letting our own interests extract it. That just doesn't make much sense to me. And it sounds good to say it will take 15 years, but drillers in the Gulf with existing infrastructure note that they can get at that oil in as little as 6 months and no more than 16 months. Drillers without existing infrastructure in place note that there is no oil off our coasts that they can't get to in less than 6 years. Six. That doesn't really scream "too long" to me.

But you are correct, Oil is only one side of the equation. $4 gas is here to stay and will certainly spur a long-overdue drive to bring new technologies to the market. But we need to pursue both sides in parallel. Something that our designated representatives in Washington have been both unable and unwilling to grasp. :(

You're right, new drilling may not produce any gasoline for 10-15 years. So....if we had drilled 10-15 years ago we might not be in this crisis now. Who was President 10-15 years ago? Who completely ignored the growing energy needs of our growing economy?

The US now uses 20 million barrels of oil a day to meet our needs. HEAVY conservation may take that down to 15 million barrels a day but even that is doubtful. Do you have a replacement for that or should we just move back into the stone age?

I agree that we need to ween ourselves off of oil and develop alternatives. Oops, the Dems won't allow nuclear, hydroelectric, wind farms or more refineries. We might be able to look forward to plug-in electric cars but not without 40-50 nuclear plants to generate the power. Oops, can't do that. You see, the Dems have no comprehensive energy plan. They are now controlled by the extremists. Their answer to every proposal is NO.

If our economy and way of life is going to survive we need to do it ALL. Drill, build nuclear and hydroelectric plants, provide heavy incentives to develop alternatives and new technologies, and yes, develop and use our own vast oil and oil shale resources. Set a long-term goal for energy independence and then make it a national priority like the Manhattan Project or landing on the moon. If we don't do ALL those things we are facing some real suffering in the coming years as we are unable to heat our homes or transport our food supply.

I recently read that in April the US drove xx million fewer miles than the previous month. Fewer miles driven=fewer gallons of gas used. I don't know what the exact number is, so I can't answer how many gallons of gas, but I would hazard a guess at over 100,000 gallons of gas were saved in one month. Now stay with me here. The "speculators" are the ones who indirectly determine the price we pay at the pump. They base their number on supply and demand. So I deduce that since we saved 100,000 gallons of gas, the demand dropped. I will hazard another guess and say that supply did not change in that month (just a guess). So if demand decreases and supply doesn't change, doesn't that mean prices should have gone down?
This is where I think we are getting hosed by someone, while that someone is making a massive chunk of $$. At least that is how it looks from here.

I would be willing to bet that May and June will show similar decreases in gas consumption. Where will gas prices go??

You forget the effect the knat in Iran that has a case of the hiccups has...

Umm, hello, Republicans controlled the entire government for 6 YEARS under the Bush administration. Where were the sweeping reforms then? And you didn't even address the point that potential oil production from ANWR equates to a drop in the bucket compared to world supply... essentially, a nickel at the pump. So, if we could go back in time and force Clinton to open up exploration 15 years ago, guess what... you'd be paying $3.94/gal instead of 3.99 today. Good call.

The fact is, you, Puckster and the rest of the Democrat haters on here are itching to pin responsibility of high oil prices on them. The reality is, its a bipartisan problem and no one has a good answer, not the Dems, not the Repubs. Drilling in the US will not do ANYTHING to bring gas prices down any time soon. I agree with you that we should be exploring alternative energy more aggressively than we are. However, nuclear, hydro, wind etc are all great if you want to bring your electricity bill down, but its not going to help a lick at the pump.

People are hurting now... they don't care if their kids are going to pay a nickel less for gas 15 years from now. They want relief today, and I think many (most?) are under the misconception that if we opened ANWR and the eastern Gulf immediately to exploration, we'd be paying much less at the pumps near term. That's simply not true.

I am optimistic, that with good leadership in Govt and a strong push from the public, we can ween ourselves off oil, and 15 years from now we won't be saying, "Thank God we opened up ANWR", we will be saying, "Thank God we kicked that nasty oil addiction!"

First, I said 15, not 10. And that's a conservative estimate. Some estimates are closer to 25 years. All this to save a nickel at the pump.

Second, you did not address the linked story. In case you missed it, here is an excerpt:

Providing oil and gas companies with more land to drill is often seen as the cure-all for our energy problems. The fact is, however, oil and gas companies are choosing to drill on only about a quarter of the 68 million acres (bigger than the size of Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia combined) already leased to them by the federal government. Even though these companies have 81 percent of all the known reserves in the United States, they refuse to extract the oil and natural gas they already control.

Your anger is misdirected... why not ask these oil companies why they are sitting on so much oil now without tapping it? Because you're afraid of the answer, which is "because high oil prices are in our best interest."

Btw this is an urban legend, perpetrated by the "pro drilling" crowd. http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/567156.html

Glass Half Full or Half Empty
 

Truth be told, I haven't actually witnessed a Chinese rig in Cuban waters and lack the ability to discern which one of the competing statements of Jorge, Mel, John or Dick is correct (although Boehner citing the NY Times didn't really bolster my confidence. ;)) Thus, I updated my post above to note that China has the ability to drill off our coast while the United States legally does not. Even if the Congress allowed it, that doesn't mean the individual states would permit it and we could speculate all day about what it would do to prices at the pump. I just think the states should have the option to open those fields to exploration.

Anyway, the real reason for this reply... The Commerce Department reported today that the economy grew at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, an update to the previous estimate of 0.9 percent growth. The new reading was better than the 0.6 percent growth rate logged in the final three months of last year.

I know we continue to experience slowdowns in many aspects of the economy and that 1% growth doesn't warrant us bringing out the confetti cannon, but as I've written elsewhere, I don't think we should be all about the doom and gloom. Only the future will bear out if my current thoughts were appropriate, and with all due respect and empathy to the difficulties experienced by sa_meredith, I remain optimistic about our collective futures, higher gas prices and all.

My glass is half full and filling.

I wondered that as well
 

I thought the esitmate was 2 Billion(that sounds like alot) less miles traveled


And don't forget the hundreds of flights that have been cancelled by the airlines and all that jet fuel that wasn't used.

It just doesn't seem to add up to what we were taught in Economics 101

you're right...
 

Yeah, you're right. Turns out the whole economy thing was just a big mis-understanding. Things are great!!!!
KJbathe, my guess would be that you earn your keep thru some means other than retail...paid by the government, or health care (hospital work), perhaps in the field of education...something other than retail.
Anyone who is mid-class, blue collar type, grinding away each day or works in a industry that depends on those same blue collar types having the ability to spend (which is where I fit in) will tell you a very different story. State your facts about growth, and percentages, but in the end, if you look out the window, and it's raining, it does not matter that the weatherman just said it's sunny out. It is INDEED raining, you can plainly see it. So I encourage, look out the window. What do you see? I looked closely last Friday (post 3 I believe) and saw a terrible storm. Do you think thses people were not forth coming with me?
I wish I had not started this thread....

Nuclear, hydro, wind, etc... help at the pump because they supplement or replace our current electrical plants that are fired by gas or oil. It helps on the demand side.

But this is not about a quick fix, election-year reduction of prices at the pump even if we like the idea of that simplistic feel-good notion. Gasoline powered combustion engines are from the Henry Ford days. We are at or nearing peak oil -- oil is not our long-term future, but it is our reality until we get to the future.

Where we find ourselves today is analogous to the Wright Brother's taking their first flight and our technology evolution and commitment to take the Apollo missions to the Moon. Are we up to the challenge? That remains to be seen, but at least $4 gas seems to finally have us thinking it's an attractive pursuit.

That is exactly my point. It just does not add up.

Yes, it's raining. But we have umbrellas and we don't need an arc. And I get paid by the hour. ;)

Oil drilling
 

I heard that if Barrack is elected President that an oil rig will start drilling in the No Wake Zones on the lake. Maybe that will bring the oil prices down.:eek:

Interesting reading:

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/20...-to-drill.html

http://www.washtimes.com/news/2006/j...-122242-7824r/

http://www.americanfreepress.net/htm..._drilling.html

Okay, lets just sit around and do nothing.

We could lessen the number of different gasoline formulations to ease the pain. Refineries have to change formulations based on area of country and time of year. We should erase alot of these formulations and make it more efficient for the refiners to keep up with demand. Forget trying to get that through congress. Dump the ethanol mandate. The only good that is doing is driving up the cost of food. It takes more energy to make than it gives, the last report I read.

Get over it, we are an economy based on oil for at least this century. For the life of me I try to figure out why libs can not wrap their brains around that.

A good time to watch weather
 

In times like this, many a layperson may find it useful to start following the weather and climate more. This will help alleviate expensive surprises.

The weather, and other natural events, have historically been one of the greatest drivers of prices, and also have been known to decide the course of human events including wars.

With this in mind, it always boggles me that weather and climate get such elementary-school treatment by the mainstream media. I've met people from the financial crowd who use private weather consultants to help them make decisions.

Anyway, main point is that it's a good time to start learning more about meteorology and climatology, following them each day, and applying that knowledge to each day's human happenings from around the world.

As a positive side effect, learning new stuff, like a science, language, or skill, has the effect of taking one's mind off of bad news elsewhere, perhaps even making a person start loving some "bad" stuff in the same way stormchasers and firefighters both run towards what everyone else is running from.

I like your point. I do have one problem with your proposal, unfortunately climatology has been interwoven with geo politics. The man made global warming crowd has made sure of that.

Because they can neither understand it, nor control it in anyway.

A positive post
 

Here's something we can do if we believe that while alternative fuels are surely the future (why can't we have a nuclear-powered car or boat...) they are likely a decade or more from having widespread availability.

Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay Less.

Click here to join the nearly 1.2 million Americans who want to build a bridge to this future of alternative fuels.

http://www.americansolutions.com/actioncenter/petitions/?Guid=54ec6e43-75a8-445b-aa7b-346a1e096659

And, to those who say that we won't get any benefit from drilling here for many years...ask yourselves this...what would be gas and home heating oil prices be today had not President Clinton vetoed the proposed ANWR legislation? Yes, we'd be using that oil right now...supplies would be up...prices would be down.

...a double bubble?
 

Will the first decade of the 21st century become known as the double bubble decade?

First, there was the internet technology bubble at the start of the decade. And now as this decade closes, will we be seeing a real estate bubble as the financials and housing markets see their values slowly go down?

Did Shakespeare see this coming when he wrote in MacBeth:

"Double bubble, toil and trouble..."

...or something like that? Will look that Shakepeare quote up later on....it's time to hit the sailboat!

What stimulus check
 

I just got my stimulus check and it probably cost more to cut the check than it is worth...it won't even fill up my gas tank. I guess the economy is not bad for me! I still have a job and can meet my bills. In fact I get to work this weekend. The VOICE MUST GO THROUGH...

I agree. My note was to the individual level. For example, when a couple of my fellow "weather geeks" and I saw the likelihood of the midwestern floods as they just beginning to develop, we said to each other, "There go the food prices... get ready." A couple days into the damage assessement came the "official" word from the national networks, "There go the food prices." The best time to prepare is before the news sounds its alarms.

By the same concept in the winter, if I need anything at the store before a big snowstorm, I track it and make my store trip when the storm is 2 days away rather than wait for the official warning to trigger a mad rush of panic-shoppers. Farther out, a forecast has a greater chance of being wrong and I've occasionally lost the bet, but most other times it's saved my sanity.

In this economic environment, a hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico could trigger a swarm of panic-buying of crude oil (on Wall Street) and gasoline (at the pump.) I'm not saying it definitely would, but totally possible. In that situation, you'd want to be tracking the hurricane and using as much insider information as you can understand from Day 1, so you could decide how best to avoid the rat race and maybe save a little money in the process.

Things like that.

A positive sign for the local economy...
 

There is alot of talk about a bad economy and how people are not travelling due to the high cost of gas...

We are coming up to the lake for our annual week of relaxation and just called around to rent a boat. We had a hard time finding a boat that was available!! We don't usually wait this long, but thought we wouldn't have a problem this year...

Hopefully this means business is good for those around the lake this year.

Boat Rental
 

Try the Meredith Marina. www.meredithmarina.com :)

My wife and I have been coming up to the lake for over a decade now. We always rent the same cabin at the same place and bring our boat. I got my "Boating Certification" this year and am ready to go.

I haven't got the boat out of the garage yet. We are still booked at the cabin and will still go. BUT: Taking the boat is still up in the air. All this stuff about MP.....random bording....docking at public docks...Yada Yada... has really put a krimp on our attitudes about Winni. We like to go out to dinner at lakeside restaurants by boat. Now, maybe I'd better not have a glass of wine at dinner. I don't want to go to jail while on vacation. :emb: NoBozo

Things must be looking up.....
 

I have just a second to comment....I heard the President say just today that the economy is pretty good and his successor apparent, Sen. McCain, said the surge is a great success in Iraq and were winning that war, but I need to run.....gotta get some cash outa my IndyMac account before closing time....:rolleye1: