Ice Update...or lack thereof
 

Aerial Photo NH posted this yesterday on their FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/aerial.phot...53843836273899

Link
 

That link wouldn't work for me.

yup --- dead link

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Here it is:

Sorry about that..
 

Facebook links do that sometimes. If you aren't on FB or you don't already "like" the page, sometimes you can't see it. Thanks Rusty for helping me out!!

BT

Interesting to see how fast some of the coves & bays have iced over in just a short time (albeit just being a "skim" coat) ...... keeping in mind it was 70 degrees out two weeks ago


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The Southwest side of Black Cat has had some thin ice moving in this morning. One stiff breeze would probably take it out but it's a start.

this could be a tough year to predict ice out. One would assume real early but if cold weather hits late feb and march could slide into April

Wonder what it looks like Monday after the 1-2 inches of rain we get...........

I'm not really a weather guy, but I think ice out is more a factor of February and March more than anything. Unless we have an unseasonably warm winter, the water eventually gets to roughly the same low temp and develops a thick ice layer. It's the ides of March that factor ice-out more than the lead-in (again, IMO).

Right now the experimental long-term forecast looks like we will have an "average" winter:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre...s/WK34temp.gif

My very speculative guess right now is that ice-out will fall right around the median date in the 3rd week of April.

No Ice Walking
 

Me thinkest I shalln't be walking out to our camp on Rattlesnake this February.

Rapid ice formation..
 

I was amazed after driving down Weirs Blvd this morning. I saw some small scattered patches of very thin ice BUT 2 hours later I'd say most all of Paugus is now ice covered. It's not going to last but it shows that the water is ripe for freezing. No wind or sun makes the difference.
It's coming, but it won't start till Monday. Sunday will not be good for those wanting ice. Lots of wind, rain and temps near 50.
Next shot for snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

I was stunned today to see the same thing on Paugus Bay...almost completely ice covered! However, from the looks of the forecast, Monday morning you might see some boats out there.

I do think that Feb and March have a lot to do with it but I think if January is real cold it builds a thinker layer of ice. But what I really know is it is 24 days to the ice out contest

ice in
 

I saw a snow covered Moultonboro Bay and Wentworth is also snow covered but I saw yesterday that the ice looked thin. Where is real winter? We may break a January "heat" record tomorrow here in Boston. Boston, let's beat last year's record snow!

brk and PBF stated it well.

I've watched the ice start to form, disappear, reform, and disappear in front of my house several times this week. The winds, rain, and temps tomorrow will eliminate much of what is out there.

However, the water temps are right on the edge and it won't take long for the ice to form and thicken if we get an extended period of cold. The forecast shows no temps above freezing for a long period, starting mid-next-week. That should start things going. But it will be slowed by accompanying strong winds. As always, it will be interesting to watch.

Ice seems solid in and around suissevale. Its clear ice, maybe a few inches. I walked on it, of course not out far. If I went though It would've to gone to my knees maybe. However there no cracking or noise at all, like standing on solid ground. Last week it was just skim coated in spots.

Ice Out
 

Better yet, "calling it now"...NO ICE IN!! :):):D

Waukawan
 

I went by Waukawan on Saturday and there was a guy ice fishing not far off the boat ramp and a couple of people skating out towards the middle. Also a couple of those wind surfers were out there. Crazy if you ask me. We have not had that many cold days/nights

The front is just passing...cue the wind!

If there's any ice left the incoming winds will take care that. Dropping temps but lots of wind to go before the ice formation starts again.

Ice Not
 

We drove past Winnisquam this afternoon and all the ice that had been forming in the body of the lake was gone. The combination of wind, rain and heat really set everything back. If we don't get sustained (very cold) weather the seasonal events will soon be at risk.

Jetskier:cool:

Look at the forecast. As long as the winds (ideally lack thereof) cooperate, I'd predict most of the lakes will be skimmed over by next weekend.

Much to my amazement .... we saw 4-6 people fishing on Lily pond Saturday and that included one of them running around on a Quad !


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Stupid is a four season sport, you can find people playing advanced levels of Stupid any time of the year.

That's been frozen for almost two weeks now. It probably has 6"+ of ice...

Lily is wall to wall ice. On this morning's sunrise drive I saw a perfect sheet of glass on Lily Pond. The next time you see water on Lily it will be about a week before Ice Out on the big lake.

F&G said there was 4" on White Lake- lots of fishing going on there.

Last year they were calling for a record ice out date in mid May. Things can change quickly.

Alton Bay has ice from the town beach to Sandy Point, then some open water at the markers at the point, then about a quarter mile of ice across the bay, then open water presumably the rest of the way out the bay.

I live here... I am always Upthesaukee.

Also, there is one bob house on the ice right off the beach. Someone has to be first ;) .
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I live here... I am always Upthesaukee.

19 Mile Bay
 

19 Mile Bay is socked in with a thin skim of ice.

I think the lake will look much different come sunrise tomorrow...:look:

After all the rain and warmth yesterday, the winds were howling all last night and most of today. No ice to be seen anywhere on Merrymeeting despite much of it being covered in ice a few days ago.

But it's cold now with no above freezing temps showing in the forecast (well...ok, they show Fri and Sat at 33 :-) ). Once the wind settles, things will happen quickly.

There was 5+ inches of ice on the section i tested. You can find people being advanced levels of stupid, from their arm chair, any time of year!

There's more to ice than just the thickness alone in a given section.

The wind was howling all day today (and still tonight)! Even the thick, rolling, slush along the shorelines disappeared today. No ice in sight anywhere on Merrymeeting.

Though as I've expected before, if the wind dies, it will come in quick.

Pretty decent view from space today of the big lake and Sebago..
BT

Thursday 1/14 report
 

Today, Wolfeboro and Winter Harbor were open. Nineteen and Twenty Mile bays were frozen in. There were fishing shacks and people fishing on Mirror Lake.

A couple hours ago Paugus was still wide open. I just looked again and I'm happy to say parts of Paugus are now skimmed over with ice. No wind and lots of cloud cover.
This could be the day for ice as today's forecast calls for continued calm winds, limited sun and cold!