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Six inches?
Happy Groundhog Day. Jeremy Reiner on WHDH-7 (Boston) just announced that the groundhog has about a 40% accuracy record, but I think Al Roker on NBC-Today said it best this morning: "They have 200 TV camera lights - how can they tell if he saw his shadow?"
Now to today's weather in the Lakes Region. Temps have risen to the upper 20s on Black Cat Island, with winds blowing from the SW (warm & more humid direction.) Skies are cloudy and snow appears on the radar over PA/NY state moving NEward. Based on radar & models I think it'll get here around 7 pm and begin accumulating almost as soon as it starts. The models are showing an average of .25 inch (liquid equiv.) for the state, with lower amounts near the MA border and higher amounts for the mountains. Average liquid-to-snow ratio seems to be about 20:1 for the state with 25:1 possible (as R2B mentioned) and maybe 15:1 for the MA border. If I were to play it conservative I'd use the 20:1 ratio and guess .30" liquid equiv for the Lakes Region, which comes out to 6 inches snowfall. We also might see some minor mountain enhancement, like we saw from the Squams/Belknaps/Ossipees on Jan 20 when an "inch or less" was predicted but we ended up with 4 inches (our biggest "storm" this season.) Another factor is that the ground is very cold from recent weather and I don't think any snowflakes will be wasted in "priming" it for accumulation. An outlying possibility continues to be a lake-effect snow band from Upstate NY surviving the trip to NH. NWS-Burlington is talking about possible thundersnow with the upcoming lake-effect event, which means powerful snow squalls that would have the potential to make that trip and add an inch to what we're already getting. With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we did end up with a few spot-totals of 7 inches tonight, although I have a hard time imagining it given the way this winter has been. I know I'm going out on a limb... However, the trend this morning has been for "upped" totals as this thing approaches, so I'll forecast 4 to 7 inches for the Lakes Region, with any 7-inch amounts (if they occur) near the mountains, and the 4-inches around Laconia. After this thing passes the headline becomes BRRRRRR! Monday looks to be the coldest day of next week and perhaps of the winter - I'll go with +3 for a high (on Black Cat Island), and windy too. The last cold blast on January 26 gave Black Cat a daytime high of +4 with a low of -5 and temperatures were below zero for all but 3 hours of that day... and this one looks about the same or slightly cooler. If you're planning anything in the mountains Sun-Tues, now's a good time to re-think: The summits will likely not rise above -10, with the highest summits even colder, and NW winds of 75+ mph above treeline. CLA |
I'll go with maybe 3".
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Per NWS: Snow Advisory
This has just been posted.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007 ...SNOW FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT... .A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...VISIBILITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND TRAVELING COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING. BY THE TIME TO SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT...A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MAY CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW BACK OVER TREATED ROADS. IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BE READY FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. MEZ012-018-019-NHZ004>006-009-010-030800- /O.NEW.KGYX.SN.Y.0004.070203T0000Z-070203T0800Z/ SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND- NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-BELKNAP- STRAFFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...SOUTH PARIS... MEXICO...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON... NORTH CONWAY...CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH... WOLFEBORO...LACONIA...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER... DOVER...DURHAM 219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL HEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BETWEEN 500 PM AND 800 PM. THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES BETWEEN 800 PM AND 100 AM. AT THIS TIME... VISIBILITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND TRAVELING COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS...THE SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER. WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT. IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BE READY FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. |
That was fast!
THE SNOW BEGINS...
Black Cat Island at 8:30 pm: Visibility is 1/4 mile in heavy snow, temp 26. Snow began just after 5:00 pm (earlier on the summits to the south of the lake, which went into the clouds around 4:00) and has accumulated 1.7 inches. I just got back from Plymouth and the normally 25-minute ride took 50 minutes. Speeds on I-93 averaging 35 mph. **There were serious accidents occurring as I was driving - I witnessed a pickup truck off the road attended by Ashland FD, PD, and NHSP... also heard on the radio of others in the area, one in Laconia requiring jaws of life. The National Weather Service has once again upped their predicted total for the Meredith area, for 3-7 inches. |
Snowstorm's here... Reports, anyone?
Some folks may be traveling to see the long-awaited lake ice or to carve some freshies in the ski slopes tomorrow morning - Reports from around the area, anyone?
If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one. |
I just arrived from just south of the NH boarder after a 3 hour ride :( . It's just past midnight and I'd guess we have about 4" on the ground and still coming down lightly. With luck I'll be carving those freshies at 8:00 AM! :D
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Snow in Gilford Village
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Attachment 1176 I was going to use the PCTITB Gauge (Persian Cat Tossed Into The Backyard Gauge) But Yuki didn’t like the idea... at all! :D Attachment 1177 Results – Here in Gilford Village.. Just over 5” |
W. Alton Report
We got about 4-5 inches of fluffy stuff last night... it was just gorgeous out.
It is very windy this morning and the fluffy stuff is blowing around a bit.. Check out the ridge going from Rattlesnake to Diamond on the ice out page www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm Be careful out there today!!! IG |
4.9 inches on Black Cat... Love the Persian Cat!
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Really good guess, GN. At midnight my measured amount was the same as your eye-estimate: 4.3 inches. It continued snowing for a total of 4.9". When I called it into the National Weather Service they said the snow accumulation was actually getting knocked down due to a local ocean fetch that brought some maritime warmth/moisture yesterday afternoon and turned the first few hours of the snow to the heavy wet stuff (we had wind from the SE for a while but as soon as it calmed down, the snow went back to fluffy.)
Speaking of "Fluffy"... I love that new Persian cat method of snow measurement! The facial expression is priceless! (Does anyone else smell a new "priceless" Mastercard commercial here? What would it sound like?) Nice shots, IG. Ice rifts make such interesting subjects. For Today... winds are now picking up (gusting to 17 already, from the NW) and temps have already reached their high for the day and are on the way down to stay for several days - currently 18. Get those dry oaks ready for the fireplace, and eat some forbidden calories to keep warm! Blowing and drifted snow will be an issue in open areas today. Per forecast discussion from NWS-Gray, the storm-related snows are now outta here but the "upslope machine" is just getting going in the mountains, with 3-6 inches expected (depending on local topography) today. For those going skiing or out on the lake, let us know how it was! |
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I spent the day out on the ice yesterday by airboat and noted a major ridge starting at Governers Island out through the edge of the Witches and over to Lockes Island. From Lockes Island to the other side of Glendale there was another. One smaller ridge closer to Round Island was no issue. There was a lot of thin ice and open water around the ridges so anyone attempting to cross by sled should be extremely careful.
Overall ice conditions seemed fair at best. In the broads I am guessing 5-6 inches judging from the cracks that we checked, although we did not carry an auger with us. Also, the dock circulators just down from Glendale are wreaking havoc on the ice near the jet ski launch so those getting on at that point should be wary. In general, use caution- I do not think it is as safe as some might like to believe. A few images from yesterday: |
Attitash is trash
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Attitash
LG,
Thanks for the real story! It is amazing the difference you get from real people compared to the reports the ski resorts email you. I recieve the Attitash Winter Email on February 1st and this is copied from it: The ATP Fly Zone is under construction, snowmaking continues to rage around the clock, snow is in the forecast and our exceptional fleet of groomers continue to lay down the best terrain possible each day. For the weekend we expect to have 41 trails including our new additions Wandering Skis, Inside Out, upper Myth Maker & upper Grand Stand.... It is great to get first hand information from someone who was there. My opinion is that until we get a real storm, the only effect from snowmaking and small storms is that it hides the ice for a few hours. Thanks again, R2B |
Waterville
Waterville was great. Hit the slopes at 8:00 for fresh tracks in 4" to 5". Didn't start getting skied off until about 11:00. By 1:30 it was 60% ice and about 40% fluffy mogles. I've been riding all winter but this was the first day my legs gave out before I got frustrated with the ice. Great day to be alive.
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Is there a difference?
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BT |
Pressure ridge vs. ice rift
They are one in the same!
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Here are a few shots of a long ridge that ran (unfortunately) from our dock clear across to Black Island last winter. I say "unfortunately" because it seems that the ice action at this intersection, much like the movement of tectonic plates, was ultimately responsible for our major dock damage.
http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052297 http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56053611 http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052097 |
Pressure Ridges and Snowmaking Whales...
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Aren't those also one in the same? Perhaps if there's enough ice on the mountain. Sounds like Attitash has gotten to that point - are you sure you weren't encountering pressure ridges on those slopes?
The ski reports are great!. It's good to know stuff like this so we won't waste our money or miss the best conditions of the year. As R2B said, sometimes its a world of difference between what "they" tell you and what their mountain actually has on it. Today on assigment I went to a reunion dinner for Laconia High School's champion ski team of the 1950s. They had done some skiing at Gunstock today and said it was great. According to the National Weather Service's tally of snowfall totals, Franconia Notch scored the jackpot of 7.5 inches (shared with Lost River.) Crawford Notch took home the silver, with 7.0. There were a few 6-inch amounts scattered around central NH but looks like 5 inches was a pretty common amount around the lake. Here are a couple more pics from today. The expression on that persian cat still cracks me up! :D |
Interesting article
This is from todays Citizen. Interesting article on the effects of a warming climate on the local wildlife.
http://www.citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll...136/-1/CITIZEN |
Cannon Mt did have 6-8 inches of pow on Saturday morning.First freshies of the year at Cannon for me.It held up pretty well till 1 ish.Very hard under the fresh snow.Sunday was a nice cold sunny day but the snow seemed to have gone away over night.Mostly hard packed where the groomers had done there thing.At least it won't be melting this week!
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Global WHAT?
...Something about *warming*? It's 6 degrees this morning and likely not going any higher than 10 today. The models show no end in the cold for at least a week... and storm-free.
However, global warming does remain real, (Thank you for bringing up that article, SteveA) even as the weather sometimes makes us forget that the climate is warming. Since people often ask: "Weather" is "today", and "climate" is "the long-term average." It's easy to dismiss reports that the climate has warmed by a degree or two because it seems insignificant (and in daily weather, it would be), but when we consider how many day-to-day readings are needed to raise a long-term average (climate) by that much, it becomes very significant. Incidentally, if anyone is interested in locally-run studies of climate change and how it affects New Hampshire, UNH has an entire department devoted to it called the Climate Change Research Center. View its web page at http://ccrc.unh.edu/. Courses are available at the Durham campus, and many are available without having to apply to UNH. |
Mid February
I have been looking into the weather 'crystal ball' a bit today and it is starting to look like we are in for a change around mid-month.
Now that we have a good cover of ice and the ice-fishermen are safe and happy, we should be getting back to more normal cold weather, not the 6 to 8 degree below normal tempatures we have been 'enjoying'. It will still be very cold until next Tuesday or so, but then it should moderate. Now for the more interesting news. It is looking like we could get one or two shots at moderate or above snows from the 14th through the 21st. This is based upon jet stream forecasts and the warmer air trying to push its way back through the cold air. At first, the very dry and cold air will be winning the battle and any moisture will dry up aloft, but around mid-week next week, we could see a noticable change. If this happens, as I feel it will, the ski areas will get enough cover for great conditions for the two vacation weeks ahead. The sled owners should be happy as well and the snow should help the ice by reflecting the much stronger sun we will start to see in the last half of February and in March. This should keep the ice safer, longer! It looks to me like the groundhog was wrong this year and that we have a good amount of winter ahead. Again, with every forecast, time will tell! Enjoy winter while we have it. I am off to Daytona soon :) :) :) to watch the cars turn left. R2B |
Looking at the Merrymeeting webcam this morning, it sure looks cold! You can see snow (what little there is) swirling in the wind gusts. Brrr....
http://65.175.136.103/view/view.shtml |
Weather for the Derby & beyond
For those with fishing derby interests (especially those who aren't here yet)... the temp on Black Cat Island this morning bottomed out at 4 F and is now 11. It has not risen out of the teens for the past 4 days and won't today, either. Overnight lows have been in the single numbers for the past 7 nights and near or below zero for the past 4 nights. Winds have been steady from the NW (blowing from Center Harbor to Alton) all week, gusting to 40+ mph in snow squalls, and otherwise continue at 15-20 mph sustained. Wind chills out on the ice are much lower than the official readings taken on the mainland where the wind speeds are less.
The ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Island is 9 inches and varies. Most of it is clear black ice blown clear of snow by the wind, and areas of hard windpack snow exist. Use caution when walking on it or bring crampons... the ice is good for skating. For the forecast, I see what R2B sees - more of the same through next week. The weekend temps may actually climb out of the teens and into the lower 20s but fall back to the single numbers at night. A snow flurry or snow squall is possible at any time... straying from the White Mountains or even from the well-publicized Lake Ontario event of epic proportions. The extended outlook shows the chances for snowstorms that R2B mentioned yesterday but the first one (Wednesday) now looks like it will try to follow its predicessors out to sea south of us after whitening New Jersey and the "Del-Mar-Va." A couple of the models paint a snowstorm scenario for CT/RI/Cape Cod. This is subject to a lot of change since the "embryo" for the storm is still in the Pacific ocean where very few weather instruments can get any readings from it. When it passes over land-based weather stations this weekend the computer models will get a better idea of its intentions. In any case, the northwest flow on the backside of the storm will reinforce the cold air as it leaves the area on Thursday and intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes. "Mountain effect" snow on NH's peaks should kick into a higher gear next week. As R2B mentioned the ski areas really need some natural snowcover to balance out the mostly-manmade bases they have. There are increasing chances for region-wide snowstorms after the 14th as he said, but even aside from those chances it's starting to look like conditions will become more favorable for mountain-effect snow. The ski areas have been getting some already, and a few of those squalls have strayed down to the big lake from time to time. R2B, safe travels, and have fun watching those race cars make left turns. If you focus hard enough on them perhaps it will help make a similar pattern in the wind on New England's coast! :D |
What about the latest guidance?
R2B and CLA,
Looks like the medium range models are bringing the potential storm up the coast for Tuesday-Wednesday. Is this just the normal flip flopping of models or is there some real potential? 5:45 update -Now the GFS has come around. Accuweather.com is using the "B" word. Let the hype begin!! Blue Thunder |
Blizzard Shmizard - I'll believe it when the snow flies!
If the GFS is true to itself - tomorrow it will show the storm well out to see and south of us! The GFS flip flops more tha JFKerry did during his presidential run!:rolleye2:
Don't get me wrong - I am routing for the snow storm - but I'll believe it when the snow starts falling on Tuesday evening. |
Gfs
I do not trust the GFS in situations like this. However, there are other models that show the potential for a snowstorm. Some say it will be huge in the New England area and some have it going out to sea to the south of us.
NWS is stating in their technical forecast discussion that things are starting to come together. I have not checked the models myself because I am in Daytona watching the races and I do not have the time. The situation should be clearer tomorrow and Monday. I hate to miss a big snow storm, but I am enjoying it here in Florida. R2B |
Many models onboard
The 00Z runs of many weather models (GFS, WRF, GGEM, EC and NOGAPS) are in agreement that we will be affected by a Nor'easter on Valentine's Day. The differences between the models relate to the exact track, and thus the position of the rain/snow line along the coast (if one exists) and the amounts of snow inland. The morning discussion from the NWS in Taunton, MA implied that if the 00Z run of the GFS were to verify, we'd be measuring the snow in feet, not inches. I used a forecasting tool developed by the NWS in Buffalo (Bufkit) to look at totals, and sure enough, the 00Z GFS amounts for Bedford, MA ranged from 24 to 43 inches :eek: , with lesser amounts (but still well over a foot), for central Mass into central NH. The 06Z run of the GFS backed off on those totals (more in the 9 to 12 inches range). It'll will be interesting to see how this develops.
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Hey Rose...
Glad to see you back here... I love your forecast... we can only hope...
If Bedford gets that much snow... my company will call off work.. Woo Hoo!!!! IG |
Here is Madman Margusity's Forecast Map!
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc200...henry21107.jpg
I do not know if this link can open, but the Blizzard is now on the "official" map for accuweather. I know a lot of you enjoy accu weather's forecasts. I am a tad more convinced today that we will at least be plowing some snow Wednesday and Thursday!! Looks like a lot here in MA - slightly lesser amounts up at the lake. |
Welcome back Rose!
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Blue Thunder |
Me too!
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Glad to see you're back throwing petals to the wind, so to speak! :) |
Glad there's weather worth talking about
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It's all Resident2B and the CanisLupusArctos who have me excited about laying it all on the line about forecasting again, and I want to thank them for that. It's been a rather boring winter for forecasting so far. I'm not a huge fan of snow, but it's been sooooooooooooo boring, that I'm ready for a good blow. I haven't had much of a chance to look at the 12Z (7 a.m) runs, but what I have seen shows rain mixing in everywhere after a 10-12 inch dump of snow. All I have to say is YUCK:eek: !!! Who wants rain after a good batch of snow?? This storm has been all over the place for the past few days...we'll just have to wait and see. I'll put my two cents worth in when I can. I have a couple of people at work who will lynch me if we don't get a good amount of snow out of this storm!! |
Snow Coming!!
Rose,
I am sure it will snow because I am away in Florida. I like a few weeks in Florida, especially at the races in Daytona, but I love a good snow storm. Because I am away, I am sure it will snow. I started to see this storm last Wednesday looking at models and tele-connections, and I posted it on this thread at this time. (See post #61) I am still learning about tele-connections and using them to forecast is an art. Joe Bastardi of Accu-weather is the absolute best at using these. He is usually way ahead of the models. Looking at the models, they are coming closer together with storm track, but there are still differences. I feel it will go over Cape Cod and change to rain for a time Boston southward. Some models have it closer, but I think it will be over the Cape. However, the rapid deepening of the low, once it hits the ocean near the Virginia Capes, is likely to pull in cold air faster than the models are showing. If this happens and if the track is over Cape Cod, the Lakes Region gets a very big storm. That is what I think will happen, but we are still several days away. Big to me is feet, not inches. On Feb 7th, I also thought there could be a storm in the around Feb 21st and although the first snow should be bigger, the second storm will be bigger than avarage. This would be inches, not feet. Again, time will tell. It always does! Welcome back Rose! Since this discussion inspired your return, all the credit goes to CLA who started this thread. I am enjoying the thread as much as you are. It is great to read your forecasts again. R2B |
Pulses rising...
I'm so glad to see a thread with so many other weather nuts! Welcome, Rose. The last couple days I stayed busy with Fishing Derby photos out on the ice and didn't have time to check the models (a watched pot never boils)... plus, R2B is in Florida, so between his being away (jinxing himself) and my failure to watch the pot, perhaps it is about to boil!
I just had a quick look at the discussions from NWS-Taunton and Gray, and I see them mentioning QPF's of 3+ inches, which translates into "an awful lot of snow" as their night shift forecaster stated better than I could say myself. Sounds like all the models are on board with a track close to the coast, with three models even tracking it inland a little, but I agree with Gray's discussion that the models often do track New England's storms too far inland and fail to consider the localized coastal fronts that they often follow... AND that it's hard to imagine the storm barelling up against the arctic air we'll have on top of us at the time it arrives. The only snow-limiting factor I can see happening, given this scenario, is the localized effect that messed me up slightly on the storm a week ago (forecast posted on this thread): Some ocean air did work its way into the mid-levels over the lake for just a few hours and changed the powder snow to the heavy sticky variety, and we also had a bit of freezing drizzle for a time. Instead of the 20:1 QPF-snow ratio we had more of the average 10:1... but even at 10:1, if (or wherever) the 3"+ QPF materializes it would be 30 inches of snow. R2B did you say something about the Lake needing some snow to protect the ice from the strengthening sun? Good point. Blizzard or not, This should give us enough snow to do the trick. A postscript - the ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Islands is now 18 inches of crystal clear, solid ice. In my earlier measurement of 9 inches I'm guessing I was too close to a dock circulator (I thought I was far enough away...) but one of the ice fishermen measured it for me as I watched yesterday. This is very significant considering this part of the lake was open water exactly 21 days ago. Considering the thickness and quality of the ice, this upcoming snow could help the ice pack make up for the time it lost at the beginning of the season. For those who don't know already, I have a bunch of links to my favorite weather images and text data at www.blackcatnh.com/weather - enjoy! In the meantime it's bedtime - I'll resist the temptation to look at the models for now and wait 'til coffee time in a few more hours. That way if something of epic proportions really is materializing I'll have something I can reflexively spit at the screen. :D |
Being New England, this forecast must also be part of the speculation:
http://images.intellicast.com/Weathe...ce48hr/usa.gif http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage...r&prodnav=none |
On edge...
This thing is too complicated. The GFS even shows a third low-pressure getting into the act way offshore which would take some strength away from the main system. Others are still producing only the 2 main Lows but enough flip-flopping on the issue of "track" to keep every forecaster on-edge. Us snow-starved snow-lovers are starting to get the facial expressions that Red Sox fans often assume when Big Papi has a chance to hit a walk-off homer.
In any case, any snowstorm greater than 5 inches would be the biggest of this winter so far at Winnipesaukee. Some other climatological facts from Black Cat Island: With some light snow falling this morning, this is the 5th consecutive day with snowfall recorded here. Snow has fallen on 15 of the last 17 days, but only producing 5.5 inches. February has given snowfall on all but one day so far, but most of it has been either a trace or 0.1" from squalls except the 4.8 inch storm we had 10 days ago. Temp-wise, this morning marks 10 straight days with lows in the single numbers or lower. We have now been below freezing (32 F / 0 C) for the last 30 days. During that time the temp has only risen to 30 or 31 on 3 days, and 12 days have featured daytime maxes of 19 or lower. In the wind department, we've had winds from the northwest for 10 straight days now, and on 15 of the last 20 days. For anyone wondering, the snow falling at the lake this morning is not related to the Wednesday storm, and is part of the arctic cold blast moving in for tonight that will kick up those NW winds again and provide a couple more mornings in the single numbers, and at least another daytime high in the teens (tomorrow.) CLA |
Ok,in my opinion its still too early to predict snowfall amounts accurately from this storm.Having said that,I'll go with 10-12 inches in the lakes region.
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The Big Mixer!
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Per CLA, this is a tough one! That is for sure.
It does look like a stormy day on Wednesday; the question is how stormy and how much snow. Complication the situation is the cold air, the warm ocean, storm intensity and the storm track. Four very interesting variables in this case. There is cold air in place and the flow is bringing more in. However, the ocean is warm for this time of the year and if the path of the storm is inside of Cape Cod, there will be a more easterly flow at some levels and the warm water will have some impact. How intense and which center wins the phasing battle, if there is to be phasing, is a big question. Finally, somewhat related to phasing is the track of the dominent center. Here is what I am thinking with the latest data in and a slow day at the track allowing time for such thinking. We have a very interesting 24 to 30 hours of weather starting after midnight Tuesday. I see this storm as a big mixer with white cake batter on one side representing the cold air and chocolate cake batter on the other side representating the warm air. It is looking like we will get some 'marble cake' as a result of turning the mixer on. This was suggested by Rose last evening. That is looking like a great call! I think that there will be a fair period of rain along the coast, but a lot of it will be freezing rain. Inland, still mixing, but with less ice. I would not rule out rain with surface tempatures still in the mid 20's even in the Lakes Region. This will compress the snow keeping the storm more like and 8:1 that the 20:1 that the surface tempatures would suggest. Bottom line is a very interesting event with a lot of snow at the beginning and the end, with a mix of something in the middle in the Winnipesaukee area. It will get cold down here in Florida. The truck race on Friday night should see wind chill around 30 degrees. The grandstand should sheild the wind a bit, but it will be cold. I need to go buy a warmer jacket before the "good ole boyz" realize what the weather will be. Most of them freeze at about 50 degrees. Below is Henry's latest map switching the red zone northward and westward. Time will tell! R2B |
Gilford station reporting in..
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I'll clear off the top of the kitty litter bucket, and warn the cat.:emb: |
Snow brings back the cat!
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