That wind will hurt things a bit. Its going to be a bit breezier than it has been recently. I don't doubt we will get ice in, but its going to be late in the month.

ice
 

The fact that it's parked near the beach makes the last sentence moot. Let me know when there are six trucks parked in a circle out by Chase!

So, what is incredibly fascinating? Here's a fascinating piece of local weather info coming from the National Weather Service, www.weather.gov

Weather.Gov predicts 1/2" of ice/snow in Meredith on Saturday afternoon, and 4 to 8" of ice/snow in Waterville Valley which is something like 35 air miles, or something, north.

So maybe you want to drive your pickup truck up to Waterville Valley and bring home a truckload of ice/snow! ..... :cheers: ...... and build a snowman out on that 19 Mile Bay, lake ice. .... :laugh:
..................

6:55-pm update: Now it's saying less than 1/2" in Meredith and 6-10" in Waterville Valley. This all seems totally wacky!

Saturday, January 16, 2021 is free ice fishing day for this year.

A resident yearly license for age 68+ only costs seven dollars/year.

Ice-prognosticator
 

Well things have improved a little in the past few days and the temperature outlook is better too.

My Ice-prognosticating spreadsheet that uses forecasted temperature ranges and converts projected degree days to daily ice build suggests that we will have somewhere around 7-9 inches by Feb 6th.... Lots of other variables at play that will impact that too (wind and snow, for example). But it’s a reasonably good starting data point....

Pic is from yesterday morning.

ice thickness freezing formula
 

I found this interesting article... for those that want to do play with the calculations

1. Calculate the average temperature of the day by adding low temperature and high temperature and dividing by 2. Use degrees Fahrenheit. Now subtract that average from 32 degrees, the temperature at which water freezes. You have now just calculated what they call “freezing degree days.”

Example: If the low temperature today was 24 degrees and the high was 30 degrees, the average temperature of the day was 27 degrees. Subtract that from 32, and you get 5 freezing degree days for this day.

2. Based on studies, once a thin layer of ice film forms on a lake, it will add 1 inch of ice for every 15 freezing degree days in a 24 hour period.

Example: If we had a day with 5 freezing degree days, you would use the formula 5/15 = .33. On this day you would add .33 inches of ice, or 1/3 of an inch. But remember, this is after the first layer of ice forms.

This shows how long it can take a lake to freeze, even after a cold day.

With the temps this week, we have a lot of "freezing degree days" coming up!! -PIG

That’s the formula!
 

It’s less than perfect, but gives a good directional sense of how cold/for how long it needs to be to build ice. I used to just figure two weeks from after my part of the lake skimmed over (and held) and it was probably safe (defined by me as 7” or more of black ice at Cattle Landing). Typically that meant MLK weekend was the first available weekend to venture out. A bit late this year.

That’s the formula!
 

It’s less than perfect, but gives a good directional sense of how cold/for how long it needs to be to build ice. I used to just figure two weeks from after my part of the lake skimmed over (and held) and it was probably safe (defined by me as 7” or more of black ice at Cattle Landing). Typically that meant MLK weekend was the first available weekend to venture out. A bit late this year.

Meredith Bay
 

It looked liked Meredith Bay was all ice as far out as you could see. yesterday morning there was one guy ice fishing right in front of Lago

We have an ice out contest.

Determining when ice is "in" can be the subject of debate.

So... how about a contest to guess the date and time of the first motor vehicle that goes through the ice?

Depending on how things play out this may be a somewhat morbid concept.

The good news is the ice seems to be holding in front of my place despite the wind and with that layer of snow on it - it's iced over from my vantage point.

So hoping that in abut 3 weeks time it will be safe to get out to BI.

Wide open here on the mid northern end of Winnisquam. Any ice from yesterday is gone with today’s wind


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Newfound lake is looking good too.

Solid blanket of snow from my camera view.
No ice huts yet.

My neighbors camera that looks up the lake is down ;(

As long as it holds through this wind spell it should hold.

EDIT: Middle not frozen yet.

Saw the first truck on 19 mi today.

Here ya go...

We were socked in with what looked like would hold but this morning it is gone once again.

Gone Gone Gone
 

The strong winds are blowing the ice away. Gonna have to reset the ice-in countdown once it calms down again...

Ice in 2021
 

Wolfeboro bay was completely iced over two days ago and is almost completely open water today. So far, Lake Wentworth seems to be holding.

Wow is this because of the wind?

Wide open. Wind took care of what was here. Almost February, seasonal temperatures forecasted. Wondering if it will happen this year.


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This is my 20th winter on Lake Wentworth, the ice is set and will remain until late March at the earliest, barring a change in the sun (like supernova change), in which case, the skating will be the least of our concerns.

One calm night this week and there will be ice everywhere. Looking at the weather forecast, Tuesday night looks like an ice maker. 20 degrees and calm winds!

Jan. 20, 2020

Checking in this morning the ice\open water break point is about 1/3 the way between 3 mile and 5 mile islands from MB neck to Bear Island.

Got notification this morning on the pond hockey tournament at the beginning of February. Is this still possible, knowing the current forecast?


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....... that secret Grouse Point web cam!
 

Grouse Point probably has a super-secret, gated and code word protected web cam that's looking at Meredith bay and available ONLY to Grouse Pointers who are current with their condo fees, or something! ..... :laugh: ..... www.rocherealty.com/grouse_point_club/

View today from Belknap Point; some skim but a lot of open water toward the Broads. Mostly skim between Rattlesnake and West Alton.

Ice in
 

Winter Harbor skimmed over last night and held today. Hopefully it will thicken more tonight and hold for the rest of the winter.

Fingers crossed....
 

But there is more wind coming this week before the cold locks in for a while.

Broads
 

Sorry no pic but area between Smith Point and Rattlesnake/Sleepers/Diamond and as far as I can see is all ice covered or snow covered ice. Doubtful it is more than an inch or 2 as this just started solidifying yesterday afternoon and overnite. Finally had to turn dock bubblers on - latest ever

Meredith bay
 

How is Meredith Bay looking as far as ice? Any chance the pond hockey tournament will be there at the end of next week? Or are they most likely resorting to Waukewan at this point?

I went up there on Saturday to do some recon, and the bay was skimmed over. I wasn't sure if it made it through all the wind this weekend, but yesterday someone posted this on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/1326960073/...9079726727202/

Hoping it holds. It's going to be a much different tournament this year...

Pond Hockey 2021
 

According to their web site, the pond hockey tournament was cancelled for 2021. Like is below.

https://www.pondhockeyclassic.com/ph...rney-cancelled

This bulletin is for the Lake Champlain tournament only.

Jeeesh....
 

Nothing like not even reading the link you posted....:rolleye2:

Sorry folks. My Bad.

Looks like Pond Hockey is marching ahead...??
 

...there's a large area of ice staked off where it appears the rinks will be set up. This morning, there is a small tractor snow-blower and a couple of walk-behind snow blowers clearing the ice, presumably for the rinks. I guess one could conclude that the ice is safe in that area.

While there is ice from Meredith down to The Weirs, the small amount of snow cover makes it difficult to determine how safe it is...my guess is, not very. For example, there is a large oval expanse of open water off of the Upper Mile Point Road neighborhood in Meredith bay, (next to Meredith Marina, heading towards Weirs). Seems that while it might be safe along the shoreline, (assuming no dock circulators), the "middle" is still very risky.

See attached link from Facebook - Marine Solutions is out there and he is measuring 5 inches of black ice in all of Meredith Bay

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...57081691007378

We don't have any temps above freezing for the next week so we should easily pick up a few extra inches of ice.

Yes, Marine Solutions posted a great video. 5" of ice. With upcoming temps and doing the Freezing Degree Days equation, it looks like by hockey time there could be 9" of ice.

Things are looking up...
 

Hope tomorrow’s wind doesn’t set us back. But the cold is going to surely help a lot. Going up to Pittsburg this weekend where it’s well into the negatives at night....