When will this weather pattern change?

[Merrymeeting]

I'm wondering if all our local weather experts have given up! They have been so quiet.

Can you explain why we seem to be so stuck in this crappy weather pattern for weeks on end? Rain, grey, cool temps... Please tell me it's going to end soon!

[SIKSUKR]

I'm wondering if all our local weather experts have given up! They have been so quiet.

Can you explain why we seem to be so stuck in this crappy weather pattern for weeks on end? Rain, grey, cool temps... Please tell me it's going to end soon!

The main reason is because it's Motorcycle Week.Seems like every year doesn't it?

[meteotrade]

Not looking good through early next week- unseasonably cool with many rain chances. Sure, there'll be a couple of nice days intermixed (wednesday, for example) but overall the pattern won't break through at least next tuesday... probably beyond.

Long term progs would suggest a more seasonable regime by the turn of the month? Fingers crossed.

[Winnipesaukee Divers]

Well, at least that's the bill of goods the weather people are peddling now. I see it as a cop out, my pool is over flowing, the lake is so high I need a step stool to get on board the boat and the garden looks like a swamp.

Why can't they just say, "you get what you get" instead of having to put a spin on everything.

Back when I was a kid growing up on a farm in VT the ole saying was; "a good drought will scare you, but to much rain will kill you". Of course they were referring to the crops in the field, which was their livelihood.

For me: just give me a dam good old fashion drought

[Resident 2B]

From what I am seeing, tomorrow will be OK, but on the cool side. Wednesday and Thursday look good with temps in the high 70s. Friday through Sunday will be OK, but with a few showers.

Next week will be wetter than this week, unfortunately.

Nascar weekend could be a wash-out. Let's hope this changes.

R2B

[BrownEyedGirl]

The main reason is because it's Motorcycle Week.Seems like every year doesn't it?

It never fails :confused: Glad I'm not the only one with this observation

[Rose]

I haven't had time to really look at anything, but my weather weenie husband doesn't see a break in the pattern until July. In these spring patterns, I always say take the forecast with a grain of salt...the north/south oscillations of those "stationary" fronts that set up in these patterns is very difficult to predict.

[Nagigator]

Coming up for the week tomorrow, do any of the weather wonks care to give a forecast? No matter, a week at the lake is good anyway it goes. Just wondering if the long range forecast shows a break in this dismal period. Thanks! L...

[Merrymeeting]

Well, looking at the proverbial silver lining, at least the pine pollen isn't going to be bad this year. Most of it has been washed away!

[Blue Thunder]

If the forecast for Thursday through the weekend holds, we'll have a lot of happy folks out and about soaking up some warmth.

What say you prognosticators (R2B, Rose, Chipj, CLA) ??

BT

CLA, are you still working on that "denning" project?

[tis]

Well, looking at the proverbial silver lining, at least the pine pollen isn't going to be bad this year. Most of it has been washed away!
And those damnable seeds from the maple trees that are everywhere, seemed to have been knocked off the trees by that strong wind a couple of weeks ago. THat makes me very happy!

[chipj29]

Keeping my fingers crossed for some improvement by the end of the week into the weekend. If we can get there, I think we will see more summer-like weather into the beginning of July.

[SIKSUKR]

I believe I'm the cause of this weather.Since I'm in the midst of a month long work schedule without a day off,I can not get to the lake.The weather gods are waiting for me to finish this awfull stretch and will reward me when I'm done.Sooo,right after the 4th of July will will finally get into our normal pattern!Be patient,I have to be.

[Resident 2B]

This big gale center off Cape Cod is sitting, spinning and deepening. It looks to stay roughly in place until sometime on Wednesday. So, that means what we have now is what we will be getting for another 48 hours or so.

Once this thing moves away, there is GREAT weather ready to move in starting Thursday. This is perfect for the NASCAR weekend!

The only wrinkle I see is the chance for thundershowers on Sunday, in the afternoon. The atmosphere looks to get unstable late in the weekend, and that usually means thundershowers or thunderstorms this time of the year. This could have some impact on the race, but this is six days out.

Bottom line is things will get better soon!

R2B

[chipj29]

If you are a surfer, or otherwise enjoy big waves and don't mind cold water, head over to Hampton Beach. Last night they were predicting 10-15 footers. Just be very careful, likely a very strong rip current.

[meteotrade]

Not to be a pessimist here, but I gotta disagree w/ some of these "chamber of commerce" approved forecasts :rolleye2:. I really don't see much evidence to support a pattern change anytime soon, at least not in the next couple weeks. My forecast through early July is for a continuation of below normal temps and above normal rainfall. No, it won't ever be as bad as what we have now (please no more nor'easters til the fall!) but I don't see any sustained heat. Good news for those of us that hate the triple-H weather, not so good if you're hoping for a 90+ stretch anytime soon.

Pick of the week is Thursday- some sun and 80s. The weekend's looking iffy w/ more clouds, few showers/t-storms and temps probably in the 70s.

[tpabrad]

You can send some of that cooler weather down here to Florida, were roasting down here! High 90's last couple days with way too much humidity makes a pretty hot miserable day.

[Resident 2B]

My opinion of GREAT weather is low 80's with dew points in the low 60's. I see that coming Thursday through Monday, as long as the gale center does not back in from where I see it going into the Canadian maritimes. I do not consider 90+ as great weather nor am I suggesting it will be 90+ soon.

I also no connection to any Chamber of Commerce. :rolleye2:

R2B

[WinnDixie]

You can send some of that cooler weather down here to Florida, were roasting down here! High 90's last couple days with way too much humidity makes a pretty hot miserable day.

Same here in Alabama...gets to 98 everyday, and the relative humidity is about 95. The power went out for four hours the other night when it was in the 90's, too...now that's festive! Here's my question: I'm coming up there the end of July/beginning of August...Siksuker, can you have another little talk with the weather gods??? You could get pretty darn rich, you know, if you'd cultivate a really good working relationship with them!! I would like sunshine, mid-80's...and puh-leeze tell me you won't be in a long work schedule at that particular time!

[gokart-mozart]

As the Earth cools, energy is being radiated off and trapped as clouds.

Next time you see a Prius, give the driver the finger. It's his fault.
Next time you see a sportscar with a V8 engine, give the driver a kiss, he's doing everything he can to help. And burn more firewood. Every little bit helps.

[meteotrade]

My opinion of GREAT weather is low 80's with dew points in the low 60's. I see that coming Thursday through Monday, as long as the gale center does not back in from where I see it going into the Canadian maritimes. I do not consider 90+ as great weather nor am I suggesting it will be 90+ soon.

I also no connection to any Chamber of Commerce. :rolleye2:

R2B

Haha no no, I wasn't singling you out R2B. I think there is a broad consensus among novices (and even some experts) that the pattern has to change because we are somehow "due". Remember all those TV forecasts last week that proclaimed how nice this week would be?

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO).

Last year:
2693

Forecast for next week:
2694

I really hope this doesn't verify- our dock is already underwater and the last thing we need is more rain and cool temps. I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

[WinnDixie]

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO).

I really hope this doesn't verify- our dock is already underwater and the last thing we need is more rain and cool temps. I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.OK...a meteorologist is saying this, and I guess it is no good splitting hairs over the meaning of " the next couple of weeks"...and Siksukr isn't going to help me...I didn't even spell his name right before...so...fine...I bow to Mother Nature....(meteotrade will be the first to tell me that's smart, I am sure!). I can eat lobster in the rain if I have to!

[CrawfordCentury]

And burn more firewood. Every little bit helps.

Wood heat's carbon neutral.

Amd the leftover ash makes swell fertilizer for the lawn. :)

[Skip]

...Haha no no, I wasn't singling you out R2B. I think there is a broad consensus among novices (and even some experts) that the pattern has to change because we are somehow "due". Remember all those TV forecasts last week that proclaimed how nice this week would be?

The problem with patterns is that, by definition, they are hard to break and it usually takes a significant hemispheric event to do so. That's just not in the cards for the next couple of weeks. In fact (not to sound the alarm bells!) the 500mb pattern through early July looks awfully similar to early August of last year (-NAO/-AO)... . I'm with you though- 80s and dry is about as good as it gets. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of that over the next couple weeks.

As much as I despise this weather, you hit the short and long range forecast right on the money...:)

Unfortunately there is apparently no real lasting relief from the damp for days to come....:(

[chipj29]

Keeping my fingers crossed for some improvement by the end of the week into the weekend. If we can get there, I think we will see more summer-like weather into the beginning of July.

Well, my fingers must have somehow come uncrossed, because I was way off on this one. Other than a couple nice days in between a bunch of crappy ones, it has been a bust.
I will go out on a bit of a limb and say that while we are not out of the woods, this weekend looks to have some improvement.

[meteotrade]

As much as I despise this weather, you hit the short and long range forecast right on the money...:)
(

Thanks! That's why they pay me the big bucks. :rolleye2: But honestly there is no glory in forecasting bad weather... most people would rather blame you for the rain than thank you for calling it correctly.

I do have some good news this time around though. Chip's right... the weekend looks better as we get more of a westerly flow and some drier air works in. Shower/t-storm threat still alive but not as high as prv days.

Longer term there are still no signs of a pattern change, but I do think we'll see a slight pattern "shift". It's not a lot but it may be just enough to get some more significant dry air in next week and beyond. I don't see any sign of heat- below average temps right through the middle of the July. (just a reminder, a "normal" high for the Lakes region this time of year is about 80)

[SIKSUKR]

Just remember that everything usually averages out. Average rainfall and temps are just that, average. Both numbers are almost never acheived right on and that's why they are called averages. It's very rare for average temps to be more than 2 degrees off in a season so I would say we will see above average temps later in the summer. That's my forecast...yours may vary! :laugh:

[This'nThat]

I haven't had time to really look at anything, but my weather weenie husband doesn't see a break in the pattern until July. In these spring patterns, I always say take the forecast with a grain of salt...the north/south oscillations of those "stationary" fronts that set up in these patterns is very difficult to predict.The July 2009 forecasts show below normal temps, and above normal rain. In other words -- no change.

[trfour]

From what I am seeing, tomorrow will be OK, but on the cool side. Wednesday and Thursday look good with temps in the high 70s. Friday through Sunday will be OK, but with a few showers.

Next week will be wetter than this week, unfortunately.

Nascar weekend could be a wash-out. Let's hope this changes.

R2B

A side note;
Right on, R2B, NHMS got 273 laps or so in out of a 301 lap event and it was a great race. A very happy 19 year old won the rain shortened race. I haven't checked the stats to see if it was another sellout, but the crowd looked good on television from here in Dallas/Fort Worth.

I have admitted out here before about how much of a weather nut that I am, and how much that I so enjoy all of our resident weather folks that contribute to this site. I touched on this briefly with a comment that I made on one of our beloved resident's weather photos.
As a very young lad whenever there was a storm with high winds, I would find a trusty oak tree and climb it to sway with. Now I can understand an opposition to doing this, and by the way, I never let on to my parents on the subject, but to this very day can you find me, Oh, and I am 65 years old, when a good Nor'easter or hurricane comes about!! "I Am A YUPPY".... Ten Four :blush:

"Remember, never let the weather pass you by without at least a look"!!;
http://www.blackcatnh.com/index.html

[fatlazyless]

Finally, the water temp should be getting up to 70 degrees today. Take a look at previous July water temps in comparision to this year.....so far till July 15.......a big differance....

[Merrymeeting]

Still no pattern change in sight. 10-day forecasts continue to show rain, unsettled weather, temps in the 70's with cool (cold?) nights.

And my vacation starts this weekend :(

[meteotrade]

Now that summer is officially half over (meteorologically speaking) I'd like to take a moment to reflect back on what is perhaps one of the most amazing stretches of cool weather in recent memory. I know, it's a painful process but you weather weenies will appreciate some of these stats. Maybe CLA can chime in with some more numbers from his station at BCI.

-Since June 1st we've had 1, yes, ONE day over 80 degrees. (june 26th had a high of 81 at Black Cat)

-We've been at or below normal now for 16 days in a row, or every day so far in July.

-Laconia airport had a low temperature of 48 on July 14th.

-Concord has had more heating degree days than cooling degree days. In other words, it's more likely that you would have used your fireplace this summer than your A/C.

-We've had 7-10" of rain so far, about double the average.

-As bad as NH has had it, some other areas have had it worse. It has been at or below normal 41 out of the last 45 days in Boston, while Portland ME has had three days in July when the temp failed to break 60.


So no that the first lousy half of summer is over, the second half should be much better, right? Possibly. This Friday should be the warmest day of the summer so far and pretty humid to boot. Next week looks warm and humid with plenty of shower/t-storm chances, but at least a more summer-like feel to the air. Long term, still no sign of a full blown pattern change through the end of the month although I think the cool weather will shift back into the midwest with time, leaving us with more typical summer weather. :cool:

[fatlazyless]

Finally, today should be the day when the water temp gets up to 70.....and summer will unofficially finally be here!

Happy days are here again.....it's summer time....and the sky is clear again.....the sun is strong....and the water is clear.....so happy days are here again!:):D:)

[granitebox]

The water temperature seems to be stuck at 72 on the Black Cat Weather Station.

[eillac@dow]

We are heading up NH tomorrow for the week. TELL EVERYONE....THE WEATHER WILL BE GREAT. IT IS MY WEEK AND I KNOW IT IS GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE. So if you know anyone who is not sure when to take their vacation....TAKE IT NOW.

Wish us a good week...will ya!:D

[Lake Charm]

Is anybody swimming in the lake yet? 70F seems pretty cold to me.:emb:

[eillac@dow]

Come Hell or High Water....I will be!:D

[GFP]

I went swimming in the lake yesterday, and it was wonderful! Summer has finally arrived. I vowed to take a mental picture of that moment to warm me when January comes again.

[CanisLupusArctos]

The water temperature seems to be stuck at 72 on the Black Cat Weather Station.

I noticed that myself. The water temp monitor has failed again and likely needs to be replaced. I don't have the money to do that. My first action has been to contact Sensatronics to see if they'll replace it. In the meantime I'll be manually updating again, as often as I can remember to do it.

As for temps, we're averaging 63.4 degrees on the island this month. The max temp for the month is 78. We've been down as low as 51 degrees. It's a bit more temperate out here than on the mainland, thanks to the water. More data is always on the Black Cat Island Weather Station (http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather) web site.

This summer we've seen many winter-like weather features on the map. A few times we've seen cold fronts make it as far south as the Gulf Coast. Closer to home we've had storms over the St; Lawrence valley redeveloping off the coast. In the winter that's what us snow-lovers pray for.

A few times this month I've looked out on the lake and thought the scene looked just like autumn. We've had some dry air for summertime, with dewpoints on a couple of occasions in the 40s. That's rare for summer around here... fall-like dryness that is characteristic of the Canadian air. The northern continental air keeps pulsing southward.

Even now, as summertime air has finally reached us, the cold air to our north remains aggressive. For that reason a fun severe weather season is possible over this area. Cold fronts cause some very interesting weather, especially when warm and humid air gets in their way. The atmosphere has proven itself very unpredictable in New England, especially since the tornado of last summer that went through Alton.

The atmosphere has been generating weather like that on days that don't seem like they will do anything at all. The other night New York state and Vermont had a severe weather threat for which a severe thunderstorm watch was issued. Soon after it expired, a dying storm crossed into NH and came back to life in a big way. Radar indicated strong rotation in the storm, and so the NWS had to issue a tornado warning for the Warren-Wentworth area.

No other storms accompanied that one. It came out of the blue. This seems to be happening more frequently. There is a battle of the seasons taking place, and the atmosphere is generally unstable as a result. Therefore, the moral of the story, until further notice, is "Expect the unexpected."

[fatlazyless]

If you take a look at the water temps for July 2009, and 2008, it's quite a difference. So, when will the thermometer be hitting 90 again like it did in May for two days? Looking at the next ten day extended forecast for Meredith, it's all 70's days, and 50's nights, but at least with less chance of rain than last month. Seems a lot more like a Mount Dessert Island, coast of Maine summer, than a central NH summer?

What happened....where-o-where did the NH 85 degree summer go?:eek:

[SIKSUKR]

Those 90 degree days were in April.

[This'nThat]

Now that summer is officially half over (meteorologically speaking) I'd like to take a moment to reflect back on what is perhaps one of the most amazing stretches of cool weather in recent memory. One more stat, this from Mt Washington. The average daily temperature was at or below normal for the first 16 days of July. Through yesterday (19 July), only two days were above normal -- and only by 1 degree each day. Mt. Washington has also received 8.18 inches of rain through 18 July -- 0.16 more than average for the entire month. Yes, it's been cold and wet this summer.

Predictions - As a sidenote: The President said, on Jan. 17, 2008, that electricity costs would "necessarily skyrocket" as a result of capping emissions levels to combat global warming, and that his job as president would be to convince the public and Congress that benefits outweigh costs. This means, of course, that we don't have to worry about Global Warming anymore.

[hilltopper]

-Concord has had more heating degree days than cooling degree days. In other words, it's more likely that you would have used your fireplace this summer than your A/C.


I know Heating Degree Days are firgured using a base temperature of 65º F. How are Cooling Degree Days calculated?

[meteotrade]

I know Heating Degree Days are firgured using a base temperature of 65º F. How are Cooling Degree Days calculated?

Same way... a degree day is just a departure of the mean temp from 65. Yesterday the mean temp in Concord was 67, so there were 2 cooling degree days.

[meteotrade]

And incidentally, congrats if you picked next week as your vaca week. Once we get beyond Friday (which is probably a raw day) we should get into a warmer and more humid pattern through at least the middle of the week... dare I say, above normal temps? :cool: Of course the t-storm chances will be ever present but that's a small price to pay for warmth.

The one caveat: We are extremely vulnerable over the next couple weeks to the tropics thanks to a "coconut connection". In other words, our winds aloft are due south all the way to Cuba which will transport not only the warm, humid air up the coast but anything storm related that decides to develop.

[AC2717]

a glimpse into the future of what might come this hurricane season???

[Resident 2B]

The one caveat: We are extremely vulnerable over the next couple weeks to the tropics thanks to a "coconut connection". In other words, our winds aloft are due south all the way to Cuba which will transport not only the warm, humid air up the coast but anything storm related that decides to develop.

Looking at the satellite and the models and reading several Forecast Discussions plus the TPC discussions, there looks to be something semi-tropical trying to get together north of the Bahamas to southeast of Cape Hatteras. Even the NWS/TPC thinking does not seem to be aligned completely, but the clouds are there and the water vapor imagery shows a lot of wet air.

The models are all over the place regarding what might happen if something forms. However, as meteotrade has pointed out in yesterday's post, the flow from the south is developing and looks to be on the increase.

I am not saying we will get a tropical storm, but we could get some heavy downpours Thursday night into late Friday. It could be more interesting on Cape Cod.

This is finally something somewhat exciting, weatherwise.

R2B

[meteotrade]

Looking at the satellite and the models and reading several Forecast Discussions plus the TPC discussions, there looks to be something semi-tropical trying to get together north of the Bahamas to southeast of Cape Hatteras.


Yep, it certainly looks interesting doesn't it? My personal feeling is that it is more "sub" tropical in nature, but in the end I don't think it matters. I agree, we are going to get whacked with downpours tonight... this may be a replay of a few weeks ago when we had big overnight flooding in southern New England but this time NH may be included as well.

[Resident 2B]

The system is now officially sub-tropical, identified as "Invest 98L".

My personal opinion is the local NWS forecast is underplaying the rain amount for the lakes region a bit. I think it will be 1.5 inches or so in the next 30 hours, perhaps more. Not much wind here, just waves of downpours.

Track is still a bit up-in-the-air, but it looks like it will pass between Boston and the 40/70 benchmark, most likely right over the Cape.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

The low pressure responsible for today's rainstorm has been reminding me of the Blizzard of '78 - at least on the weathermap. Low pressure forming near Florida, bringing a great deal of moisture up the east coast, with cold air from Canada trying to move down at the same time. No storms look exactly the same, but I definitely saw the similarities between today's rainstorm and a situation that us snowlovers pray for, come February. These nor'easters are definitely much more common in winter than in summer, and we've had at least a couple of them this summer.

The rain is almost over. The back edge of it is moving from SW to NE, and most of Massachusetts is now beginning to dry out. We've had just over an inch of rain at Black Cat, which would've been 10-15 inches of snow, maybe 20 if it was cold enough. For the afternoon expect this steady rain to taper off to occasional showers or drizzle (which would've been 'flurries' in winter) but otherwise just cloudy (the part where we all would've gone out to shovel/snowblow/plow.)

Tropical season... I think it's going to be a quiet season. It's been quiet so far. The pattern has favored wintertime features more often than not, this summer. There are many reasons this affects hurricane development. It goes beyond a simple temperature equation. Hurricanes don't need 'just heat.' They are a mix of hot and cold, and the weather around them needs to be just right. For as powerful as they are, they are still very sensitive to things like headwinds and dry air. If dry air pours off the edge of the continent (part of a wintertime pattern) tropical development is probably not going to happen. Wintertime winds over the tropics follow different courses than summertime winds, and this also dictates hurricane development. There are favorable and unfavorable courses. Even the most powerful hurricane can lose a lot of strength when it meets with unfavorable winds. Its circulation may be powerful, but it's delicate and doesn't like to be jostled by outside conditions. Having said all the above, I don't think it will be an active hurricane season because the weathermap has been filled with wintertime features this summer. Disclaimer: It only takes one hurricane and "just the right steering currents" to make a memorable season. Andrew was the first storm of its season, and that happened in August.

Some are asking, "Why all the hot air in places like the Pacific Northwest, if we're in a wintertime pattern?" Because weather is physics on a very large scale. In summer, the warm air wants to occupy the northern hemisphere evenly, and if it did, we'd be able to predict temperature based on latitude alone. But that's not the case. The earth doesn't heat or cool evenly. That leaves warm and cold air masses. The cold ones are the heavier of the two. Warm air doesn't actually rise - cold air falls because it's heavier. Nothing on earth rises, because gravity is always here. There is warm, and there is cold. One is heavier than the other (cold). Gravity pulls the heavier object to the ground, and displacement forces the lighter object to go somewhere else. Air masses are invisible objects: They bash into each other, one can crush another against a third, and stuff like that.

Perhaps you have noticed, especially in wintertime, that when we in the east are very cold, it's usually warm out west. The cold air masses move southeast from Canada and New England is in the direct path. When the cold air moves southward into warmer territory, the warm air must go somewhere. It may have to go where it normally doesn't want to. Think of it in the same way as when a person canonballs into the lake. Water comes flying UP, above the surface, and for a while the air is filled with blobs of water. That is not a normal situation, but it settles back down again. However, if a steady stream of people continuously jump off the end of the dock, the air in that vicinity will become repeatedly filled with blobs of water. The cold air masses are like people cannonballing themselves off the end of the dock. New England has been where they've been landing all summer long. The warm air ("water") has been splashing up in other locations. It is not as likely that the west coast would get the same cold air masses, because the polar air masses want to move southeastward, and the west coast doesn't have a continent to the northwest. It's a huge ocean. Cold air masses don't stay cold for very long over oceans.

The pattern we've been in all summer would generate a great deal of snow around here in wintertime, and our friends out west would be saying "Where's all the snow?" It happened that way during the winter of 2007-08 when we had all the roof collapses in this area. My friends out west were booking their ski vacations here.

I have seen some info within the last couple days that suggests the larger scale "climatological autumn" got started in early July. This would not surprise me. If true, it would mean that summer gave up, only two weeks after the days peaked in length and started getting shorter again ("First day of summer.") Normally the large-scale climatological autumn gets started in early to mid August. That is when we typically see our first puff of cold/dry air from the northwest. For those of you who were here on July 5, you may remember it looked and felt like "after Labor Day." Typically we do get summer weather after the onset of fall, so summer weather will continue to occur, but I think we're at the peak of it now.

Enjoy whatever we get during the next couple of weeks. It will probably be marked by a great deal of meteorological battle as the cold air remains nearby and is not showing any signs of leaving the warm air alone here.

Eventually, autumn will become dominant, and that will push the battle zone back to our south. That will clear us out. The colder, drier air from the continent will take over again, as we had in April. It might even give us another 90-degree day. If you remember, those 90-degree days in April were not humid ones. It was a continental, not tropical, air mass. Without much humidity (water) in the air to help regulate its temperature, the air was able to change temperature quickly as it does in the desert. When the wind started blowing in from the west, it forced the air to descend in elevation from the inland mountains to the coast. When air descends quickly its pressure increases, and it heats up. The opposite is also true: A can of compressed air will actually get frosty if you discharge it all at once, because the contents inside are rapidly losing pressure. If you ride a fast train through a deep tunnel, you'll notice the air inside starts to get very warm as you reach the lowest part of the tunnel. That's temperature changing in response to a pressure change, and it's much more likely to happen with dry air than with humid air. Therefore we may get another 90-degree day as soon as autumn boots out all this moisture.

Water temperature note: The water temp monitor at the WeatherCam (http://www.blackcatnh.com) has been replaced by Sensatronics (http://www.sensatronics.com) at their own expense. This is a plug for them. They have been great supporters of the WeatherCam over the past couple of years.

[granitebox]

Thanks for working to get the water temperature gauge back up and running.

That is one of the first things I look at while not at the but the kids are there out at camp.

[jerseyonbear]

Arriving this weekend for my 2 weeks and would love to see the sun and nice temperatures. Would hate to be closed up in the house with 4 young ones. So my forum friends please start the sun dance!!! Thanks

[Skip]

Thanks CLA, very interesting and informative read, as usual! :)

What really piqued my curiosity was the observation that we may have entered "autumn" several weeks ago.

For at least two weeks now while travelling the seacoast and foraying further north alongside the western spine of Winni up to Tilton I have noticed a peculiar thing. Scattered about roadside, but particularly prevalent in swampy areas, I have observed many young Maple trees with a tinge or full bloom of early fall red leaves!

I know that this can be brought on by various forms of environmental stress, but is this a sign of things to come in but a few short weeks?

Anyone else notice this phenomenon?

[chipj29]

Thanks CLA, very interesting and informative read, as usual! :)

What really piqued my curiosity was the observation that we may have entered "autumn" several weeks ago.

For at least two weeks now while travelling the seacoast and foraying further north alongside the western spine of Winni up to Tilton I have noticed a peculiar thing. Scattered about roadside, but particularly prevalent in swampy areas, I have observed many young Maple trees with a tinge or full bloom of early fall red leaves!

I know that this can be brought on by various forms of environmental stress, but is this a sign of things to come in but a few short weeks?

Anyone else notice this phenomenon?

I noticed the same thing up in the Ossippee area of Rt 16/25 just yesterday. I have noticed even down here in the Concord area some maples have reddish tips on the newest growth for most of the summer. I think it is more indicitive of the amount of rain we have had, as opposed to an real early fall. Hopefully we will get some warmth in the next couple of weeks to keep the early autumn at bay. Barring a real heat wave, it is my belief we will have a somewhat early autumn. I also believe that September and October are going to be unseasonably warm. But don't quote me on that, look at how good (not!) my predicition was earlier in this thread.

[SIKSUKR]

Stayed at my skihouse in Franconia this weekend and noticed the same maples changing. I believe those are swamp maples as I have one at my house in Bedford that starts changing every year in mid August. It has some red edges already.

[CanisLupusArctos]

I found this leaf underneath a maple on the Moultonborough Neck Road yesterday. It wasn't the only one. The second picture is of a sunset I photographed from the bleachers at Fenway Park on July 9. I'll talk about that in a minute.

Chipj29, you may be right about the unseasonably warm autumn. We have an El Nino going in the Pacific right now. That often spells cool wet summers and warm dry winters for us. It was an early El Nino though, which means it may be early to end. We may remember that winter of 2006-07 got off to a chilly, early start. Then it became warm and rainy for a while, right into January. Then, the El Nino broke down and suddenly we went into the icebox for the rest of the season - we had a mild Christmas and a white Easter.

We could very well have a mild autumn until that El Nino breaks down. Then watch out.

This summer's winter weather pattern is likely rooted in a combination of things:

1. Reduced solar output. The sun goes through an 11.1 year cycle with max and min output, discovered by Galileo. It is very rare that the sun gets stuck in between cycles, but that is what has happened. It reached minimum a couple years ago and didn't bounce back as usual. BBC recently reported that the Ulysses space probe has been reporting the sun's output is reduced on every parameter that the probe is capable of measuring. Pretty simple - when the fire dies down, the people next to it start shivering and saying, "Someone throw another log on there..." It recently showed signs of getting the next cycle going again. However, on earth there is usually a lag between max solar energy and max temp in the weather. Daily, the sun peaks at noon, but the high for the day doesn't happen until 2 or 3 pm. Seasonally, the sun peaks in June, but the peak of summer isn't until mid-July. The sun is at its lowest point in the sky in December, but we don't reach the coldest part of winter until 4-6 weeks later.

2. Pacific Ocean in cold phase. The oceans each have a warm and cold phase. The Pacific just kicked into its cold phase (good for many years to come) in 2007.

3. A handful of volcanoes have managed to blast some heat-reflecting particles into the upper atmosphere. Volcanic cooling is a normal occurence on Earth, and we haven't seen much of it in our lifetimes. Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillippines blew up in the early 90s and noticably chilled off the earth for 2-4 years. That's about all we've seen recently. There have been blasts, but none reaching the stratosphere with enough stuff to block out solar heat. In the last year or so, we've had a few small blasts like that. None was really newsworthy, but collectively they've put enough stuff in the stratosphere to create some really nice sunsets around the northern hemisphere. SpaceWeather.com wrote about that recently. A few days later, I was at Fenway Park, watching my first sunset in weeks (it's been THAT cloudy around here this summer, if you haven't been here to see it.) The sunset I saw was just like the one shown on SpaceWeather, which was just like the "Pinatubo Sunsets" I remembered from the early 90s.

[Nagigator]

Thats really great stuff. Thanks for the info!

[SIKSUKR]

Ya,that Sox line up is pretty good!:laugh:

[CanisLupusArctos]

Ya,that Sox line up is pretty good!:laugh:

I thought so too! The ad slogan in the right side of the frame was intentional.

But, (yawwwn) just to make sure the thread stays on topic, keep your eyes on the sunset. It symbolizes Lugo's Sox career -- er, I mean, shows the effects of volcanic ash in the atmosphere.:laugh:

[bigdog]

Hey.... turn up the heat up there on the Lake, and Stop that rain ! :)

I'll be coming to Meredith for my annual vacation week begining Aug 8-15.

Hope to have a good weather week and boating ! TBD......


Bigdog

[Just Sold]

Hey, they say Saturday will be a mostly sunny one and 85. :coolsm: Hope there is not too much wind to roughen up the lake. They do say it will be breezy though. :(

I'll be there and I will be piloting around in a borrowed Chris Craft! (No not stolen, borrowed!) This will be my 1st time out on the lake since the fall of 07 .... can't wait. See you all out there!

[Mee-n-Mac]

Hey, they say Saturday will be a mostly sunny one and 85. :coolsm: Hope there is not too much wind to roughen up the lake. They do say it will be breezy though. :(

I'll be there and I will be piloting around in a borrowed Chris Craft! (No not stolen, borrowed!) This will be my 1st time out on the lake since the fall of 07 .... can't wait. See you all out there!


Hope your boating is more like the top and not like the bottom. :D

[Merrymeeting]

If anyone had told me that a month and a half after first starting this thread we would still be talking about it, I would have had them certified.

Ending my 2 week annual vacation and it certainly won't be listed in the Top 10.

Everytime it looks like it's going to break...:(