Winter Weather 2009

[Blue Thunder]

As I sit here just coming in from plowing the fourth storm of the season it strikes me as odd that this year there seems to be much less "weather talk" and prognostication in the weather section. R2B has made his thoughts known on the long range after the 20th, but it seems as though CLA, who generally posts frequently, Chipj29, Rose , and others to whom I look for guidance (I'm only a rookie) are posting noticeably less. Is it just me?

Blue Thunder

[Ambrose Angler]

I would agree that the weather chatter is way down. Hope is all well with the crew that used to report in more frequently. I know sitting here in California I add zero value to the conversation, but the updates do help me market the Derby weekend to my friends and family across the US. So consider the weather updates from those of you that know what you are talking about and can see what is actually helping as your contribution to the local economy.

Fortunately this year it doesn't look like the weather will threaten the existence of the Fishing Derby..just need to know how good the snow/ice will be for skiing, xcntry, sleds, hockey etc.

If any of you great weather prognasticators/reporters are in the Ambrose Cove area during Derby weekend please stop by and grab a complimentary Italian sausage/Chili or beverage. You will also get a sneak peak at the winning white perch. Here is a pic to help identify our group.

Happy New Year.

[Resident 2B]

The next ten days will be colder than normal, so the lake ice will thicken where it has skimmed over. Places without ice will freeze up for the most part during this time.

There will be several minor snow events. There will be 2" to 4" events on this Sunday-Monday, again on Tuesday-Wednesday, and again on Friday-Saturday. These will be little storms, nothing to get wound-up about.

The coldest days will be the 15th through 18th. We should see zero or below those nights.

It will get windy the next two days as this storm pulls away. It will also be windy in the middle of next week. Other than that, the air will be moving, but it will not be gusting over 20 MPH.

Looking further out....

As I said some time ago, BIG TIME January thaw is on track for the last ten days of January and Feb still looks above agerage tempwise. We could see daytime highs in the mid 40s around Jan 22nd to Jan 26th. The ice will still hold where it is currently formed. I do not think the broads will be safe in Feb at this time.

It is risky making forecasts here in New England for periods more than four days out, but this winter seems fairly easy to predict. Things could change and March might be interesting, but for us "weather nuts", this is not an exciting winter. :(

Of course, if I am incorrect, this could be an interesting thread. :)

R2B

[Sunset Bob]

I'd be happy with less snow than last year.
Yea it does get driven year round.

[VitaBene]

That is awesome! Nice wheels

[chipj29]

Look for a couple minor snow systems coming up, one this Sat, one Mon-Tues timeframe. As r2b said, also look for some big time cold next week. Weds-Sun look to be mighty cold, daytime highs 0 or just above. I can't speak to the end of Jan thaw that r2b speaks of though.

[Pricestavern]

Sure hope r2b is reading the moss on the trees and squirrels tails wrong concerning the end of January.

We're heading up to snowshoe across from Minge Cove to Rattlesnake the last weekend of the month. Historically, how has the ice been in that location during the end of January?

Afterwards, we'll be found watching the Giants (hopefully) at Patrick's if anyone cares to join us!

- Rich and Maria

[Janet]

From your lips to God's ears about the SuperBowl and the Giants. I'd love to join you at Patrick's. Hard to be a Giant's fan in Dallas.

[CanisLupusArctos]

I am still here. Things have been busy for me in other areas of life this summer-fall-winter. Career change... at the same time this wolf has been chasing another in hopes of denning. So far she's faster. Back to the pack, it's cold in the winter and I heard the others just got a moose...

I am still watching the weather. I have been posting anything that's major enough to get me truly excited and other comments here and there. So far we just haven't had anything like that. How can we top last December's 42 inches of snow? Or what happened after that? YAWWWWNnn....

[Mee-n-Mac]

Back to the pack, it's cold in the winter and I heard the others just got a moose...

Hey, hey, hey .... what's up with that pack ?

[Ambrose Angler]

Anyone else willing to counter/concur with R2B for the mid term forecast?

R2B - is your analysis corroborated by NWS(other agency?) analysis? Hopefully things won't get as warm as you foresee.

CLA - good luck with the denning thing.

[Resident 2B]

R2B - is your analysis corroborated by NWS(other agency?) analysis? Hopefully things won't get as warm as you foresee.
Joe Bastardi of Accu-Weather is predicting the warm up. NOAA, is predicting an average January, so indirectly they are supporting a warm last ten days of the month since the first twenty days will be below normal.

I do not just dream these forecasts up. I am completing a "distance learning" weather forecasting certificate program from Penn State Univ. Being retired and liking weather, it was a great way to use my time.

I study upper level charts and use teleconnections to develop my long range forecasts. In this case, the teleconnection is to Western Europe where there appears to be a relationship between what happens there and what happens here 10 to 13 days later at this time of the year. It was very cold there, compared to normal, during the Christmas/New Years period and it will be very cold here, compared to normal, next week. They will be seeing a warm-up soon and if the teleconnection holds, that should lead to our January thaw.

I am fairly confident that all of this will happen, but you never really know what Mother Nature has in store for us looking out more than a few days. I made this prediction well before Christmas and for now, nothing much has changed. However, in the last few days, the duration of the thaw looks to be decreasing some. If that trend continues, the thaw may not be as warm or as long.

I am a big fan of our winter sports, so I hope I am wrong as well. I think the cold we will have the next ten days will build the ice to the point that it will hold up well during the thaw. It is the currently open and thin areas that I am most concerned about, a potentially big problem for the sleds.

Time will tell!

R2B

[Blue Thunder]

I am still here. Things have been busy for me in other areas of life this summer-fall-winter. Career change... at the same time this wolf has been chasing another in hopes of denning. So far she's faster. Back to the pack, it's cold in the winter and I heard the others just got a moose...

I am still watching the weather. I have been posting anything that's major enough to get me truly excited and other comments here and there. So far we just haven't had anything like that. How can we top last December's 42 inches of snow? Or what happened after that? YAWWWWNnn....

Hey, that's a pretty good excuse!! (the chase, that is). Hopefully, the den will contain 2 at some point. Good Luck. It's the best thing I ever did some 25 years ago.

R2B- I love Joe Bastardi but his extended long range stuff leaves a little bit to be desired. His 7-10 day stuff isn't bad. What do you think of Henry Margusity?
I envy you and your ability to study weather as a passion.

BT

[Webbsatwinni]

R2B,

You mentioned open water and thin ice, looking through the web cam windows we are very fortunate to have, it all looks like the ice is locked in and growing. Is there something we are not seeing?

And thanks for the weather insight, it helps us understand what is taking place up there when we are in CT.

[SIKSUKR]

As a weather nut myself,I have almost zero confidence in long range temperature forecasts.They are usually very general and broad in area.January in general has a thaw 9 out of ten years.How long and what date is almost never known until about a week prior.

[SAMIAM]

R2B,I hope you'll forgive me if I don't put my boat back in for the January thaw.Not that I don't believe you......I'm just wondering how you can predict the weather a month in advance when the other experts can't even get it right a week ahead.Even Al Gore can't seem to get it together.

[Resident 2B]

R2B- I love Joe Bastardi but his extended long range stuff leaves a little bit to be desired. His 7-10 day stuff isn't bad. What do you think of Henry Margusity?

BT

I think the Henry "Madman" Margusity is excellent and has a great sense of humor to go along with his deep knowledge of the weather. On his Accu-Weather blog, he stated on Jan 6th "As I said this morning, I think we have two more weeks of this pattern followed by the January thaw then followed by a new pattern." I would say that he is seeing this as well.

Henry has a Meteo Maddness video blog that he updates each day. He gets fairly technical in his discussions, which to me is a low cost educational opportunity.

Elliot Abrams and Joe Lundberg are also folks that have interesting blogs and are very educational.

I agree that Joe Bastardi is good with his 10 day forecasts, and that he is often out 'on the limb' a bit with his 30 to 90 day forecasts. However, he usually explains what did not happen and that is very educational as well.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hey, that's a pretty good excuse!! (the chase, that is). Hopefully, the den will contain 2 at some point. Good Luck. It's the best thing I ever did some 25 years ago.

R2B- I love Joe Bastardi but his extended long range stuff leaves a little bit to be desired. His 7-10 day stuff isn't bad. What do you think of Henry Margusity?
I envy you and your ability to study weather as a passion.

BT

Hopefully the den will contain 2 of what? 2 mates or 2 pups?:laugh: You leave us wondering... For now I hear the Discovery Channel's narrator saying, "This time, she has proven herself faster. It is winter, and he must survive. He returns to the pack, where he shares in the bounty of their moose kill. Perhaps in spring..."

I have been listening to Joe Bastardi since I was little. As a teenager I could never get past his last name and neither could my friends... you have to imagine a 7th grade hallway and boys saying, "hey you know that weather guy on WBZ radio, you know what his name is?" But we too him a lot more seriously after his predictions in wintertime helped us decide whether or not to do our homework.

I never heard of Henry M, though. Where does he make his forecasts known?

[Blue Thunder]

Hopefully the den will contain 2 of what? 2 mates or 2 pups?:laugh: You leave us wondering... For now I hear the Discovery Channel's narrator saying, "This time, she has proven herself faster. It is winter, and he must survive. He returns to the pack, where he shares in the bounty of their moose kill. Perhaps in spring..."

I have been listening to Joe Bastardi since I was little. As a teenager I could never get past his last name and neither could my friends... you have to imagine a 7th grade hallway and boys saying, "hey you know that weather guy on WBZ radio, you know what his name is?" But we too him a lot more seriously after his predictions in wintertime helped us decide whether or not to do our homework.

I never heard of Henry M, though. Where does he make his forecasts known?

Hopefully the den contains 2 mates. You can worry about the pups later.

Henry Margusity is a senior forecaster with Accuweather.com and posts a daily blog on the site, mostly dealing in the long range. He is, more often than not, wildly speculative and tends to get it nailed down the closer we get to an event, like most of them. Here is the link for anyone that's interested.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness

BT