Winni Weather - winter 2007 [Archive]

CanisLupusArctos

01-25-2007, 05:38 PM

Around New England, the weather is always a popular discussion topic, and that's especially true here "at the lake" where outdoor activities on or near the water, or nearby mountains, are a staple in everyday life. As a meteorology buff I decided it might be fun and beneficial to many if there was a seasonally-rotating weather thread in the forum.

Here it is - Winni Weather, the winter 2007 edition!

Use this thread to discuss local weather, post your (local) snowfall measurements, temperatures, wind gusts, storm damage reports, and other info. Ask your weather questions, get answers. If you're into weather, share your knowledge and links to your favorite online weather data.

And thus it begins... let's get that ice thickened up and pray for some blizzards to decorate it!

Resident 2B

01-25-2007, 06:55 PM

CLA,

What a great idea!

I am also a weather buff and in the middle of an on-line weather certificate course through Penn State University. Boring to some, but something I always wanted to do.

I will monitor this link daily and add to it when I think it is approproate.

Keep up the great work. Nothing like our New England weather!

R2B

DRH

01-25-2007, 10:01 PM

At just before 10:00 PM, the outside temperature in West Alton is +0.2 degs and the wind is blowing at 8 - 15 mph with gusts of about 20 mph.

The expected high temperature tomorrow isn't supposed to get much over 10 degs! I wonder how much ice the lake will "grow" over the next several days?

Resident 2B

01-25-2007, 10:38 PM

If the wind does not "trash" the ice, and I do not think it will, then the wind should increase the heat transfer into the ice and increase the rate of thinkening the ice.

For the first time this year, it is very cold here in northern New England. The cold will relax a bit on Sunday, then re-establish itself for most of next week. The ice should stand up against the wind on Friday and early Saturday, then thicken a lot more next week, resulting in some great winter ice activities on the lake for the next four to seven weeks.

Please do not go out on any ice that is not at least 4 inches thick. Also, be aware that ice thickness can vary over very short distances, so make sure you know all local variations before getting on the ice.

Be safe!

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

01-26-2007, 01:01 AM

After such an abnormal December and January it sure is good to have the lake "back to it's old winter self,"-- freezing over, wind blowing, snow flying, arctic cold fronts passing, and all that other stuff they put in beer commercials.

Feast your eyes on the midnight temperature map from Plymouth State U's met program. All that cold air northwest of us will be transferring down here overnight and tomorrow. Check out Mount Washington at minus-27! No doubt the observers up there are hearing "building cracks" from their concrete walls tonight! I can't wait to hear the lake start cracking and booming, too, as the ice expands in the cold air, against an unforgiving shoreline. On the really cold nights it's enough to rattle the windows.

pmj

01-26-2007, 04:58 AM

It is brrrrrrrurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry cold morning in Alton... -7 degrees...that is minus 7 below 0. :eek:

Resident2B, I am interested to learn more about your on line weather certificate course...is this open to anyone ?? I LOVE learning about weather and as a sailor it can come in very handy!

pmj

SIKSUKR

01-26-2007, 07:42 AM

At 7:45am its -30.2 with a windchill of -78.3 on top of the rockpile.I think winter is finally here!

Finder

01-26-2007, 07:50 AM

Ice contracts when it gets colder and expands when the sun hits it.

HomeWood

01-26-2007, 08:45 AM

Accuweather says it's -4 in Moultonborough right now. Fantastic!!! If all goes right I'll be at the lake next Saturday or possibly Sunday!

CanisLupusArctos

01-26-2007, 10:26 AM

Ice contracts when it gets colder and expands when the sun hits it.

That's the first time I've heard that - can anyone offer a quote from a physics textbook? I sold mine after college... I'm ready to stand corrected.

Water, as far as I know, becomes denser as it cools to +1 C, then, once in equilibrium at 0 C it starts expanding again (becoming less dense, allowing the solid state to float) - hence the reason ice makes things burst when it gets inside them. If ice expanded as it warmed (like most other solids do) then wouldn't it be impossible to thaw a frozen pipe without risking a burst?

At the lake, I wake up in the morning to find "pressure ridges" in the ice that formed overnight, as the ice became too big for the shoreline while cooling overnight.

R2B, I'm also interested in that online course!

Resident 2B

01-26-2007, 11:34 AM

Since several people have asked about the on-line weather course, either through private messages or on this thread, I am supplying the following information.

Penn State University is known world-wide for their excellent meteorological programs. Many of the better weather forcasters are Penn State graduates including Joe Bastardi and Ellioit Abrams, both of Accu-Weather fame.

Penn State offers a certificate program in weather forecastng that is open to everyone. This is not a program where you work at your own pace. It is structured with course starting and completion times and although it is open to everyone, enrollment is limited. There are four sections to the course and each section costs about $1,350. No one said that Penn State was inexpensive!

Below is a link to their web site:

http://www.worldcampus.psu.edu/WeatherForecastingCertificate.shtml

R2B

Frank

01-26-2007, 12:51 PM

That's the first time I've heard that - can anyone offer a quote from a physics textbook? I sold mine after college... I'm ready to stand corrected.

See http://www.chrismanual.com/Intro/prop.htm - ice gets slightly, very slighty, denser as it cools. The effect is tiny in the temperature range we experience in NH. The difference in density is about 0.3% as ice cools from 30 F to -20 F. Not a large effect, and nothing like the change in density from liquid water to ice.

Finder

01-26-2007, 01:26 PM

One mile of open ice on the lake surface can expand by as much as three feet when the sun hits it. I've seen it happen. Freezing water expands and when it becomes solid contracts as it gets colder.

SteveA

01-26-2007, 01:29 PM

This doesn't directly answer the question of whether the ice "shrinks or grows"

But good reading and safety tips.

http://www.yellowknife.ca/City_Hall/Departments/Public_Safety/Yellowknife_Fire_Division/Life_Safety___Prevention/Yellowknife_Ice_Safety_Homepage/Basic_Ice_Facts.html

SteveA

01-26-2007, 01:41 PM

http://www.getsmarter.org/mstv/L3_c.cfm

DRH

01-26-2007, 03:10 PM

The outside temp. here has not risen above 0 degs today. It's been very gusty all day, too, with winds averaging 15 - 25 mph and occasional gusts over 30 mph.

Resident 2B

01-26-2007, 05:29 PM

If the wind drops off tonight, as I believe it will, with a clear sky and the dew point at -17 degrees, we are likely to see -10 to -12 degrees tonight around the lake. This is much colder than the NWS is forecasting. It all depends on the wind, but I am confident it will drop to calm and take the tempature way down.

This is great ice thinkening weather! :D

Go Derby!!

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

01-27-2007, 01:19 AM

You're right... Friday's high on Black Cat was just 2 degrees - many notches lower than the +10 they were forecasting. NWS-Gray has just admitted their conservatism in the forecast discussion by deviating from "warmer" computer model guidance for tonight's temps. They're now predicting -10 for Portland and a few places -30 in the mountains. Mount Washington won't be one of them - with radiational cooling taking place, the summit is -7, warmer than the valley. The NWS has also mentioned clouds moving in by morning, which would put a stop to any radiational cooling.

Tonight we've been down to -5 but we've been level at -2 since 2200. When I drove through Center Harbor earlier the MVSB clock said -7. I think the island is getting "warmed" by the lake again. The water underneath the ice is undoubtedly giving up some heat, allowing the ice to thicken.

Check out the imagery tonight. On tonight's temperature map, we have negative double-digits all to the NW of here in VT and upstate NY. The IR Sattelite pic shows the NW wind condensing over the warmer ocean waters.

BTW I'm still reading some of those articles posted about the physics of ice. Very interesting stuff! Makes me want to go back to college. Water is such a wierd substance, and that statement is just the tip of the iceberg. (*rim-shot*)

CanisLupusArctos

01-28-2007, 08:45 AM

After flurrying all day Saturday and amounting to only a Trace, the overnight hours produced some measureable snow at Black Cat Island - a whopping 0.1 inch. The season's biggest snowfall to date remains the 4-incher on the 20th, which the NWS-Gray told me was a lake effect snow band from Lake Erie that survived the long trip and became enhanced by lift provided by the mountains behind Center Harbor as it moved in from the west. We've yet to see a phasing of the northern and southern jet streams close enough to the coast to bring us a good old-fashioned NH snowstorm, but little shots of snow keep coming as the moisture-starved systems dive out of Canada now that winter is here. Those mountains behind Center Harbor are certainly a help in this particular location.

Resident 2B

01-28-2007, 10:36 AM

Although it does look like the northern and southern jets will be rather flat and therefore unable to hook-up for at least the next seven days, which means no real rain or snow storms, there is winter weather in-store for the lakes region during the next ten days.

It looks like there is a lot of deep, cold air to the west of Hudson Bay and the general flow is right in our direction. This should mean fair weather with daytime highs below freezing and night time lows in the single numbers for the next several days starting tonight.

It should warm up a little towards the end of this week, but still staying below freezing for most of the time. It then gets cold again at the end of next weekend for another three or four days.

All of this is great news for those that are involved in ice related lake activities and should allow for reasonably safe ice conditions to develop during the next week. Ice conditions vary significantly with water flow, so everyone should know what they are doing before getting out on the ice.

From what I see, the next chance for any real snow is next Sunday night or Monday, the first weekend in February. It looks like any phasing of the jets is at least a week away, so the snow lovers will remain unhappy for now.

As with all weather forecasts, time will tell!

R2B

HomeWood

01-28-2007, 11:54 AM

Thanks Resident. I want snow for trail riding, but I'll take safer ice first and foremost.

CanisLupusArctos

01-28-2007, 10:50 PM

R2B, excellent point. I've seen relatively new lake ice get ruined by snowpack insulating it. I think it's better for the icepack when the snow comes in the form of a major Nor'Easter whose wind creates alternating snow-free and drifted spots out there.

The Weather Channel is now showing "Snow and Wind" for our Friday, and Todd Gutner on WCSH-6 Portland just said he's watching for an Alberta clipper on Thursday followed by possible Low coming up the east coast on Friday but I haven't had time to check the models. What do you (or anyone else) see for that day?

Weather fans may enjoy the new time-lapse feature on my web cam. It goes back about 4.5 hours in 3-minute increments. At blackcatnh.com, click on "previous images" and then click the timelapse link in the upper right. If you check it before 11 a.m., the timelapse will reach into "yesterday" since the camera doesn't take pictures at night.

Resident 2B

01-29-2007, 12:09 PM

CLA,

I just spent an hour looking at three models, the GFS, the European and the UK Met. Of the three, the UK Met is strongest in suggesting a storm effecting our area on Friday, Feb 2 a/k/a Ground Hog Day. If the UK Met is right, the low pressure area currently part of the "block" off the west coast would drift to the southeast, picks-up gulf moisture, heads northnortheastward up the coast, and phases with the cold air from the northern jet. This clearly results in a snow storm for everyone within 200 miles west of the storm track, where we would be.

However, the other two models do not completely agree. The European brings two storms close together one a bit north of us and one well south of us, with not much snow for us. The GFS holds onto the the Rex Block off the west coast and keeps the small clippers, some with no moisture, coming at us every 36 to 48 hours.

At times like this, we should look for what happens to the area of significant difference between the models and see what it does in the next 24 to 36 hours. That should tell us what model is most likely correct. In this case if the upper level low off the west coast starts to move to the southeast, then the UK Met would be right, and we should get a good storm on Friday. So, until something happens out west, it is a toss-up as to what model to follow and too early to forecast a storm. I think that is why the public forecasts hint at a poosbility of something, without commiting to anything.

There might be some "folklore danger" if we get a strom on Ground Hog Day. It has been said that if the ground hog does not see his (or her) shadow the morning of Ground Hog Day, winter will end early. Since it just started, I do not think it will end early. Following that reasoning, it would have to be sunny on Friday:cool: , not stormy, making the GFS model correct. Does this mean GFS stands for Groundhog Forecasting System?

Bottom line is the models are all over the place and it is too early to tell about any possible storm on Friday. I will look at the runs later today and early tomorrow and see what develops.

Let me know if you see it differently.

R2B

gtxrider

01-29-2007, 01:18 PM

Good movie but as weather predictors, I don't trust rodents.

Come on snow!!!!! We had a bit here and without the help of a weasel.

"I got you babe....."

CanisLupusArctos

01-30-2007, 12:34 AM

Hey folks, this is Winnitawney Phil, and I am a groundhog who has taken over Mike's computer. I'm offended and I'm going to join forces with those poor cavemen that Geico just won't stop dissin.' I have a close cousin who's a famous weather forecaster in Pennsylvania and my uncle recently appeared in a sleeping pill commercial with former President Abraham Lincoln! I'm so much more than just a weasel!

Mike "CLA" here again. I just chased a groundhog away from my computer with a flashlight. Big shadow on the wall. I don't think he'll be back for at least 8-10 weeks. It is 7 degrees and dropping steadily out there. Topped out at 20 on the Island today. Watched Gunstock's snow guns going full-force all day. Peak wind of 17 (North) around noon. Still no time to look at the models (setting up a new wx station, and taking much longer in the cold) so thank you R2B for the briefing. Joe Cupo on Ch. 6 was on at 11, still flip-flopping on the issues regarding Friday. He seems to think it'll form but is questioning a coast-hugger vs. farther out to sea. If it's still a good possibility tomorrow I'll definitely take a look at the models.

Weirs guy

01-30-2007, 12:10 PM

I'm not the weather nut some of you are, but I do appreciate the work you guys are doing. Keep it up!

Now, hows that storm on Friday shaping up?

CanisLupusArctos

01-30-2007, 01:38 PM

No need to be a weather nut to comment here. Just share what you see/measure, offer what you know, ask about what you don't know, and remind people like me not to talk too technical without explaining in plain english along the way. :)

The Friday storm appears to be materializing - but once again I haven't seen the models yet. I'm hoping to take a look this afternoon.

This morning I awoke to Ch-6 Portland calling it "Snow Likely" on Friday (upped from yesterday's "Snow possible.") The Weather Channel made the same kind of wording change. In weather forecasting, wording is everything and the National Weather Service actually has official criteria for using certain words (and phrases) in public forecasts, to the point where they sound redundant. Example: "Snow likely in the morning, followed by a chance of snow in the afternoon." Such wording means the odds favor morning snow over afternoon snow, although both could end up happening.

Weather forecasting is a lot like betting - probability and chances play a huge roll. Being experienced definitely helps, but even champion poker players lose high stakes once in a while.

Resident 2B

01-30-2007, 01:50 PM

It is looking more and more like we will get a fairly good snow on Friday. It looks like the UK Met model mentioned yesterday was more "correct" than the other models and now the other models are coming into some agreement with the UK Met.

So, now the question becomes timing, track and storm intensity.

It looks like the timing is still a question mark, but Friday looks like the day. How early or how late on Friday is the question. The track looks like a "coast hugger" right now. This track usually means a mixture of snow and rain along the coast with all snow in the lakes and mountains. The storm track is very important and still a bit of a question. As far as intensity, there is still some uncertainty, but it is shaping up to be a moderate storm with 0.5 to 1.0 inch of liquid. If the ratio of snow to liquid is 10:1, it looks to me like 5" to 10" in the lakes region.

It is still three days away, so things can still change, but that is what it looks like to me today. This is all based on computer models, and they are still more art than science.

In the mean time, tonight's clipper will not bring the lakes region much snow, but it looks like a rapid development once it hits the Atlantic moisture with around 6" on light snow on Cape Cod. They will get more snow tonight than they get on Friday.

It will remain cold for the foreseeable future continuing the "ice build". Good news for most people.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

01-30-2007, 02:01 PM

YYYYYeeeesss!! Yes! Yes! (Sorry.... *deep breath*) It's been almost a year since I last saw a decent snowfall...

Time to look at those models. Oh wait - not yet. Need to fix the new heater I installed in my rain gauge last night. I must remember not to start such projects when cold and more tired than I admit. :)

SIKSUKR

01-31-2007, 09:58 AM

Soory guys,but as a self proclaimed weather nut myself,forcasting snowfall in NE more than a day in advance is like throwing darts at the wall.It's such a fine line whether we have a substantial snowfall in the northeast and where it will fall.You can have all the computer models you want,which I will say can pretty accurately predict there will be a storm forming.But exactly what track and what amounts will fall where is still a pure guess until less than 8 hours prior.I am bonifide snow lover and have watched this stuff for longer than some of you have been alive.Too often I have got myself angered over forecasted snowfall that didn't materialize.I know the process is getting better but we are still a long way a way from predicting snowfall amounts in NE many days before.That being said,I still love to here what you guys are discussing about the models.Having only had about 2-3 inches here in Bedford this year so far,all I'm asking is,Please please please let it snow!

Resident 2B

01-31-2007, 10:43 AM

Siksukr and all others,

I never said that forecast models were accurate, so I agree with your opinion. However, they are interesting to review and to some degree projections can be made from them. Exact storm tracks, percise storm intensity and P-type are a real challange for today's models and these variables are so important to what happens during winter storms here in New England.

That said, it is looking like the storm on Firday will effect the Lakes Region, but the snowfall is likely to be on the lower side of my 5"to 10" estimate made yesterday. Today I would guess it will be around 6". Two reasons why: no high pressure area in place to pump in the cold air while the storm is around, and the storm looks to be developing too late and too far away from us to bring snow at the top end of yesterday's estimate. However, I still think it will be within the range served up yesterday.

It will get very cold after the storm passes. The storm will intensify northeast of us and will act as a big pump bringing down some very cold air and we could go well below zero on Sunday and Monday nights.

Again, this is based upon models and we seem to be in agreement that the models are far from perfect.

On the ground hog front, it looks like the local ground hog will not see his shadow on Friday. Based upon folklore, that means an early ice-out as winter will end soon. This is in strong contrast with the weather models that are suggesting a cold and stormy 30 days ahead. We do not seem to be able to get the rodent and the models on the same page.

Time will tell!

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-01-2007, 12:51 AM

Looks like the storm is missing us but more cold on the way. Good to see those ski areas 85-99% open now, with manmade snow from all the cold, and lots of natural snow from upsloping winds in the mountains every time a wave passes.

Looks like some record overnight lows and record low maxes for the daytime Mon-Wed.

A note on those models - one time I interviewed a Plymouth State University meteorology prof. for an article (now posted on http://www.thesilentforest.com/journalism/bostonweather.htm)
in which he told me that while the models have grown significantly since the 1980s and are still increasing in accuracy as more data (including historical) gets put into them, they can never be perfect without being programmed with measurements for all levels of the atmosphere on the first day of earth's existence, or as he called it "the initial state of the atmosphere." He told me that for as long as the initial state of the atmosphere remains unknown to us, future states of the atmosphere will never be predictable with 100% accuracy. That was as simple as he could put it - he said the full explanation gets into chaos theory and stuff like that.

SIKSUKR

02-01-2007, 08:34 AM

The intent of my post was not to discredit anyone posting here or any weather service.I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.I still enjoy watching forecasting,if for nothing else to see how it turns out.As far as snowfall amounts in the Lakes region,I would love to see the 6 inches your forecasting but as I watch this morning,that looks unlikely.I hope I'm wrong.

Resident 2B

02-01-2007, 10:13 AM

Although the models looked good for those of us who really like the snow, it is now a long shot, at best, for any moderate storm tomorrow. So, you do not need to spend any time today tuning up the snow blower.

The will be cold later this weekend and early next week. In addition, there is a lot of energy around and with the contrast in temperatures between the cold air and the relatively warm ocean, the area looks ripe for a storm. However, they just do not seem to be forming in an area that gives us the snow most of us want.

So the model driven forecast from earlier this week looks to be wrong, but there is potential for storms in the next 10 days, but nothing that can be specifically forecasted.

The weather news for the area will be the cold air for now.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-01-2007, 12:45 PM

I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.

How right you are! New England has the most unpredictable weather in the world. While most places get their weather from one or two directions all the time, we're a rare spot in the fact that THREE major storm tracks intersect here, and a fourth one sometimes jumps into the action when storms decide to "retrograde" -- back in off the ocean instead of moving out normally ("The Perfect Storm" of 1991 did that.) We can get air masses originating from the North Pole, the Gulf of Mexico, the US Continent, and the North Atlantic - all in one day.

For that reason there is a study called AIRMAP which is run by UNH and supported by NOAA which is attempting to measure New Engand's patterns for the purpose of making a New England weather model (and air quality.) There are several AIRMAP sites in a South-North line, ascending in elevation, and one of them is at Castle Springs in Moultonborough.

Even this model, however, will never be perfect. Aside from needing "The initial state of the earth's atmosphere", all models also would need to account for the very TINY details that make a huge imact on the weather - like farm fields creating less friction on a storm system than buildings. Even if they did program that info into the models, what would happen when developers bought the fields? Now the multi-trillion dollar super-high resolution weather model needs to be updated by local planning boards (maybe not literally, but you get the point.)

Speaking of models, the latest run seems to be trending tomorrow's snow farther offshore... *sob*

Well at least it still looks like record cold for next week to thicken the ice and help make more snow at the ski areas. R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think. :)

Resident 2B

02-01-2007, 12:56 PM

R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think. :)

The gun is loaded and it is aimed. Mother Nature just does not want to pull the trigger, for some unknown reason.

You are correct! Sooner or later.......

Enjoy the cold and ice. It is much better than last year.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-01-2007, 04:17 PM

While VERY far off, do keep your eyes on next Saturday - that appears to be our next chance of a snowstorm. The latest 10-day GFS takes a storm from the TX panhandle across the Gulf Coast in the latter half of next week, then to the mid-Atlantic coast (DelMarVa) where it becomes very Nor'Easter-looking.

The way this winter has been going I would not be surprised if this, too, got shunted out to sea by the very heavy dome of cold air that has been in residence over us since mid-January. At the same time, the model does show the storm bringing a moderation of the cold air toward the end of the week (moderation meaning "normal cold" in this case.) At this point we (including anti-snow people) definitely do NOT want to see any rain try to move in here. The ground has been chilled beyond belief and this kind of cold air will not leave the lowest altitudes quickly if pushed. We're primed for a huge ice storm if warm/rain does try to surge back in here at some point.

For today... all models coming into agreement that tomorrow's storm is heading out to sea. NGM (aka "No-Good Model") seems to be the only one left showing a closer-to-the-coast track but even that one isn't very close.

The headline now should be the possibility of record cold for the first half of the coming week. After a couple days of near-normal winter temps starting (now), the extreme cold comes roaring back in here Sunday PM to the tune of daytime highs in the + single numbers and overnight lows below zero.

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

Gatto Nero

02-02-2007, 08:00 AM

My small contribution for the Winni weather thread. This from PunxsutawneyPhil.com

Phil's official forecast as read 2/2/07 at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob:

El Nino has caused high winds, heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures in the west.
Here in the East with much mild winter weather we have been blessed.

Global warming has caused a great debate.
This mild winter makes it seem just great.

On this Groundhog Day we think of one thing.
Will we have winter or will we have spring?

On Gobbler's Knob I see no shadow today.
I predict that early spring is on the way.

NightWing

02-02-2007, 10:06 AM

http://channels.isp.netscape.com/news/story.jsp?flok=FF-APO-1110&idq=/ff/story/0001%2F20070202%2F0930468865.htm&sc=1110&floc=NI-ne3:D

Resident 2B

02-02-2007, 11:50 AM

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

At the risk of jinxing CLA's call, although it may not be coming directly from Lake Erie, the upslope action looks real for this evening and tonight, as does the 3" to 4" range. This is different snow than the snow I was predicting for Friday. Light, powdery 25:1 stuff that will look great blowing around on the lake after the front passes.

Tough luck with the Groundhog!:look:

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-02-2007, 02:23 PM

Happy Groundhog Day. Jeremy Reiner on WHDH-7 (Boston) just announced that the groundhog has about a 40% accuracy record, but I think Al Roker on NBC-Today said it best this morning: "They have 200 TV camera lights - how can they tell if he saw his shadow?"

Now to today's weather in the Lakes Region. Temps have risen to the upper 20s on Black Cat Island, with winds blowing from the SW (warm & more humid direction.) Skies are cloudy and snow appears on the radar over PA/NY state moving NEward. Based on radar & models I think it'll get here around 7 pm and begin accumulating almost as soon as it starts.

The models are showing an average of .25 inch (liquid equiv.) for the state, with lower amounts near the MA border and higher amounts for the mountains. Average liquid-to-snow ratio seems to be about 20:1 for the state with 25:1 possible (as R2B mentioned) and maybe 15:1 for the MA border. If I were to play it conservative I'd use the 20:1 ratio and guess .30" liquid equiv for the Lakes Region, which comes out to 6 inches snowfall.

We also might see some minor mountain enhancement, like we saw from the Squams/Belknaps/Ossipees on Jan 20 when an "inch or less" was predicted but we ended up with 4 inches (our biggest "storm" this season.) Another factor is that the ground is very cold from recent weather and I don't think any snowflakes will be wasted in "priming" it for accumulation.

An outlying possibility continues to be a lake-effect snow band from Upstate NY surviving the trip to NH. NWS-Burlington is talking about possible thundersnow with the upcoming lake-effect event, which means powerful snow squalls that would have the potential to make that trip and add an inch to what we're already getting.

With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we did end up with a few spot-totals of 7 inches tonight, although I have a hard time imagining it given the way this winter has been. I know I'm going out on a limb... However, the trend this morning has been for "upped" totals as this thing approaches, so I'll forecast 4 to 7 inches for the Lakes Region, with any 7-inch amounts (if they occur) near the mountains, and the 4-inches around Laconia.

After this thing passes the headline becomes BRRRRRR! Monday looks to be the coldest day of next week and perhaps of the winter - I'll go with +3 for a high (on Black Cat Island), and windy too.

The last cold blast on January 26 gave Black Cat a daytime high of +4 with a low of -5 and temperatures were below zero for all but 3 hours of that day... and this one looks about the same or slightly cooler.

If you're planning anything in the mountains Sun-Tues, now's a good time to re-think: The summits will likely not rise above -10, with the highest summits even colder, and NW winds of 75+ mph above treeline.

CLA

SIKSUKR

02-02-2007, 02:31 PM

I'll go with maybe 3".

Resident 2B

02-02-2007, 02:39 PM

This has just been posted.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND TRAVELING COULD
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME TO SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT...A GENERAL 3 TO 6
INCH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MAY CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW BACK OVER TREATED ROADS.
IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BE READY FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

MEZ012-018-019-NHZ004>006-009-010-030800-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SN.Y.0004.070203T0000Z-070203T0800Z/
SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...SOUTH PARIS...
MEXICO...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
NORTH CONWAY...CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...
WOLFEBORO...LACONIA...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...
DOVER...DURHAM
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL HEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BETWEEN 500 PM AND 800 PM. THE SNOW
MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES BETWEEN 800 PM AND 100 AM. AT THIS TIME...
VISIBILITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND
TRAVELING COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...THE SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER. WINDS PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND.

EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE TIME THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT. IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BE READY FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE
YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

CanisLupusArctos

02-02-2007, 02:47 PM

THE SNOW BEGINS...

Black Cat Island at 8:30 pm: Visibility is 1/4 mile in heavy snow, temp 26. Snow began just after 5:00 pm (earlier on the summits to the south of the lake, which went into the clouds around 4:00) and has accumulated 1.7 inches.

I just got back from Plymouth and the normally 25-minute ride took 50 minutes. Speeds on I-93 averaging 35 mph. **There were serious accidents occurring as I was driving - I witnessed a pickup truck off the road attended by Ashland FD, PD, and NHSP... also heard on the radio of others in the area, one in Laconia requiring jaws of life.

The National Weather Service has once again upped their predicted total for the Meredith area, for 3-7 inches.

CanisLupusArctos

02-02-2007, 09:08 PM

Gatto Nero

02-03-2007, 12:31 AM

I just arrived from just south of the NH boarder after a 3 hour ride :( . It's just past midnight and I'd guess we have about 4" on the ground and still coming down lightly. With luck I'll be carving those freshies at 8:00 AM! :D

SteveA

02-03-2007, 06:50 AM

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.

Ok... here is a slightly less scientific method. This is the KLBIFTBITF Gauge. (Kitty Litter Bucket I Forgot To Bring In This Fall Gauge) :laugh: :laugh:

1176

I was going to use the PCTITB Gauge (Persian Cat Tossed Into The Backyard Gauge) But Yuki didn’t like the idea... at all! :D

1177

Results – Here in Gilford Village.. Just over 5”

Island Girl

02-03-2007, 07:04 AM

We got about 4-5 inches of fluffy stuff last night... it was just gorgeous out.

It is very windy this morning and the fluffy stuff is blowing around a bit..

Check out the ridge going from Rattlesnake to Diamond on the ice out page

www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm (http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm)

Be careful out there today!!!

IG

CanisLupusArctos

02-03-2007, 09:21 AM

Really good guess, GN. At midnight my measured amount was the same as your eye-estimate: 4.3 inches. It continued snowing for a total of 4.9". When I called it into the National Weather Service they said the snow accumulation was actually getting knocked down due to a local ocean fetch that brought some maritime warmth/moisture yesterday afternoon and turned the first few hours of the snow to the heavy wet stuff (we had wind from the SE for a while but as soon as it calmed down, the snow went back to fluffy.)

Speaking of "Fluffy"... I love that new Persian cat method of snow measurement! The facial expression is priceless! (Does anyone else smell a new "priceless" Mastercard commercial here? What would it sound like?)

Nice shots, IG. Ice rifts make such interesting subjects.

For Today... winds are now picking up (gusting to 17 already, from the NW) and temps have already reached their high for the day and are on the way down to stay for several days - currently 18. Get those dry oaks ready for the fireplace, and eat some forbidden calories to keep warm! Blowing and drifted snow will be an issue in open areas today. Per forecast discussion from NWS-Gray, the storm-related snows are now outta here but the "upslope machine" is just getting going in the mountains, with 3-6 inches expected (depending on local topography) today.

For those going skiing or out on the lake, let us know how it was!

codeman671

02-03-2007, 11:02 AM

I spent the day out on the ice yesterday by airboat and noted a major ridge starting at Governers Island out through the edge of the Witches and over to Lockes Island. From Lockes Island to the other side of Glendale there was another. One smaller ridge closer to Round Island was no issue. There was a lot of thin ice and open water around the ridges so anyone attempting to cross by sled should be extremely careful.

Overall ice conditions seemed fair at best. In the broads I am guessing 5-6 inches judging from the cracks that we checked, although we did not carry an auger with us. Also, the dock circulators just down from Glendale are wreaking havoc on the ice near the jet ski launch so those getting on at that point should be wary.

In general, use caution- I do not think it is as safe as some might like to believe.

A few images from yesterday:

Lakegeezer

02-03-2007, 01:36 PM

Some folks may be traveling to see the long-awaited lake ice or to carve some freshies in the ski slopes tomorrow morning - Reports from around the area, anyone?

If you're new to this, feel free to share whatever weather info you have relevant to Winnipesaukee or the things we do here (like drive to the mountains to go skiing). Yes there are techies commenting here but you don't have to be one.We left at 6AM and got first run freshies in 4" of powdah at Attitash, but that mountain is in poor shape. A lot of trails are not open and under the powder, its bulletproof ice. Some trails have snowmaking ice whales - which wrecks the trail. The groomers just haven't done a good job. For another 40 minutes of driving, you can be at Sunday River - we went there last week and it was almost 100% open and had great conditions. Someone on the lift told us Attitash may be sold off later this year. From the lack of investments being made in blowing snow and grooming, it seems they are saving money for something.

Resident 2B

02-03-2007, 02:19 PM

LG,

Thanks for the real story!

It is amazing the difference you get from real people compared to the reports the ski resorts email you.

I recieve the Attitash Winter Email on February 1st and this is copied from it:

The ATP Fly Zone is under construction, snowmaking continues to rage around the clock, snow is in the forecast and our exceptional fleet of groomers continue to lay down the best terrain possible each day. For the weekend we expect to have 41 trails including our new additions Wandering Skis, Inside Out, upper Myth Maker & upper Grand Stand....

It is great to get first hand information from someone who was there. My opinion is that until we get a real storm, the only effect from snowmaking and small storms is that it hides the ice for a few hours.

Thanks again,

R2B

Gatto Nero

02-03-2007, 03:23 PM

Waterville was great. Hit the slopes at 8:00 for fresh tracks in 4" to 5". Didn't start getting skied off until about 11:00. By 1:30 it was 60% ice and about 40% fluffy mogles. I've been riding all winter but this was the first day my legs gave out before I got frustrated with the ice. Great day to be alive.

Blue Thunder

02-03-2007, 04:00 PM

Check out the ridge going from Rattlesnake to Diamond on the ice "out"(??) page

www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm (http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm)

IG
What's the difference between a rift and a pressure ridge??

BT

Island Girl

02-03-2007, 04:24 PM

They are one in the same!

Grant

02-03-2007, 06:04 PM

Here are a few shots of a long ridge that ran (unfortunately) from our dock clear across to Black Island last winter. I say "unfortunately" because it seems that the ice action at this intersection, much like the movement of tectonic plates, was ultimately responsible for our major dock damage.

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052297

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56053611

http://www.pbase.com/gfevans/image/56052097

CanisLupusArctos

02-03-2007, 10:47 PM

Aren't those also one in the same? Perhaps if there's enough ice on the mountain. Sounds like Attitash has gotten to that point - are you sure you weren't encountering pressure ridges on those slopes?

The ski reports are great!. It's good to know stuff like this so we won't waste our money or miss the best conditions of the year. As R2B said, sometimes its a world of difference between what "they" tell you and what their mountain actually has on it.

Today on assigment I went to a reunion dinner for Laconia High School's champion ski team of the 1950s. They had done some skiing at Gunstock today and said it was great.

According to the National Weather Service's tally of snowfall totals, Franconia Notch scored the jackpot of 7.5 inches (shared with Lost River.) Crawford Notch took home the silver, with 7.0. There were a few 6-inch amounts scattered around central NH but looks like 5 inches was a pretty common amount around the lake.

Here are a couple more pics from today. The expression on that persian cat still cracks me up! :D

SteveA

02-04-2007, 08:14 AM

This is from todays Citizen. Interesting article on the effects of a warming climate on the local wildlife.

http://www.citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070204/NEWS0201/102040136/-1/CITIZEN

SIKSUKR

02-05-2007, 10:14 AM

Cannon Mt did have 6-8 inches of pow on Saturday morning.First freshies of the year at Cannon for me.It held up pretty well till 1 ish.Very hard under the fresh snow.Sunday was a nice cold sunny day but the snow seemed to have gone away over night.Mostly hard packed where the groomers had done there thing.At least it won't be melting this week!

CanisLupusArctos

02-05-2007, 10:14 AM

...Something about *warming*? It's 6 degrees this morning and likely not going any higher than 10 today. The models show no end in the cold for at least a week... and storm-free.

However, global warming does remain real, (Thank you for bringing up that article, SteveA) even as the weather sometimes makes us forget that the climate is warming. Since people often ask: "Weather" is "today", and "climate" is "the long-term average." It's easy to dismiss reports that the climate has warmed by a degree or two because it seems insignificant (and in daily weather, it would be), but when we consider how many day-to-day readings are needed to raise a long-term average (climate) by that much, it becomes very significant.

Incidentally, if anyone is interested in locally-run studies of climate change and how it affects New Hampshire, UNH has an entire department devoted to it called the Climate Change Research Center. View its web page at http://ccrc.unh.edu/. Courses are available at the Durham campus, and many are available without having to apply to UNH.

Resident 2B

02-08-2007, 03:19 PM

I have been looking into the weather 'crystal ball' a bit today and it is starting to look like we are in for a change around mid-month.

Now that we have a good cover of ice and the ice-fishermen are safe and happy, we should be getting back to more normal cold weather, not the 6 to 8 degree below normal tempatures we have been 'enjoying'. It will still be very cold until next Tuesday or so, but then it should moderate.

Now for the more interesting news. It is looking like we could get one or two shots at moderate or above snows from the 14th through the 21st. This is based upon jet stream forecasts and the warmer air trying to push its way back through the cold air.

At first, the very dry and cold air will be winning the battle and any moisture will dry up aloft, but around mid-week next week, we could see a noticable change. If this happens, as I feel it will, the ski areas will get enough cover for great conditions for the two vacation weeks ahead. The sled owners should be happy as well and the snow should help the ice by reflecting the much stronger sun we will start to see in the last half of February and in March. This should keep the ice safer, longer!

It looks to me like the groundhog was wrong this year and that we have a good amount of winter ahead.

Again, with every forecast, time will tell!

Enjoy winter while we have it. I am off to Daytona soon :) :) :) to watch the cars turn left.

R2B

Merrymeeting

02-09-2007, 08:43 AM

Looking at the Merrymeeting webcam this morning, it sure looks cold! You can see snow (what little there is) swirling in the wind gusts. Brrr....

http://65.175.136.103/view/view.shtml

CanisLupusArctos

02-09-2007, 11:54 AM

For those with fishing derby interests (especially those who aren't here yet)... the temp on Black Cat Island this morning bottomed out at 4 F and is now 11. It has not risen out of the teens for the past 4 days and won't today, either. Overnight lows have been in the single numbers for the past 7 nights and near or below zero for the past 4 nights. Winds have been steady from the NW (blowing from Center Harbor to Alton) all week, gusting to 40+ mph in snow squalls, and otherwise continue at 15-20 mph sustained. Wind chills out on the ice are much lower than the official readings taken on the mainland where the wind speeds are less.

The ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Island is 9 inches and varies. Most of it is clear black ice blown clear of snow by the wind, and areas of hard windpack snow exist. Use caution when walking on it or bring crampons... the ice is good for skating.

For the forecast, I see what R2B sees - more of the same through next week. The weekend temps may actually climb out of the teens and into the lower 20s but fall back to the single numbers at night. A snow flurry or snow squall is possible at any time... straying from the White Mountains or even from the well-publicized Lake Ontario event of epic proportions.

The extended outlook shows the chances for snowstorms that R2B mentioned yesterday but the first one (Wednesday) now looks like it will try to follow its predicessors out to sea south of us after whitening New Jersey and the "Del-Mar-Va." A couple of the models paint a snowstorm scenario for CT/RI/Cape Cod. This is subject to a lot of change since the "embryo" for the storm is still in the Pacific ocean where very few weather instruments can get any readings from it. When it passes over land-based weather stations this weekend the computer models will get a better idea of its intentions. In any case, the northwest flow on the backside of the storm will reinforce the cold air as it leaves the area on Thursday and intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes.

"Mountain effect" snow on NH's peaks should kick into a higher gear next week. As R2B mentioned the ski areas really need some natural snowcover to balance out the mostly-manmade bases they have. There are increasing chances for region-wide snowstorms after the 14th as he said, but even aside from those chances it's starting to look like conditions will become more favorable for mountain-effect snow. The ski areas have been getting some already, and a few of those squalls have strayed down to the big lake from time to time.

R2B, safe travels, and have fun watching those race cars make left turns. If you focus hard enough on them perhaps it will help make a similar pattern in the wind on New England's coast! :D

Blue Thunder

02-10-2007, 03:50 PM

R2B and CLA,
Looks like the medium range models are bringing the potential storm up the coast for Tuesday-Wednesday. Is this just the normal flip flopping of models or is there some real potential?

5:45 update -Now the GFS has come around. Accuweather.com is using the "B" word. Let the hype begin!!

Blue Thunder

wildwoodfam

02-10-2007, 07:43 PM

If the GFS is true to itself - tomorrow it will show the storm well out to see and south of us! The GFS flip flops more tha JFKerry did during his presidential run!:rolleye2:

Don't get me wrong - I am routing for the snow storm - but I'll believe it when the snow starts falling on Tuesday evening.

Resident 2B

02-10-2007, 10:49 PM

I do not trust the GFS in situations like this. However, there are other models that show the potential for a snowstorm. Some say it will be huge in the New England area and some have it going out to sea to the south of us.

NWS is stating in their technical forecast discussion that things are starting to come together. I have not checked the models myself because I am in Daytona watching the races and I do not have the time. The situation should be clearer tomorrow and Monday.

I hate to miss a big snow storm, but I am enjoying it here in Florida.

R2B

Rose

02-11-2007, 09:40 AM

The 00Z runs of many weather models (GFS, WRF, GGEM, EC and NOGAPS) are in agreement that we will be affected by a Nor'easter on Valentine's Day. The differences between the models relate to the exact track, and thus the position of the rain/snow line along the coast (if one exists) and the amounts of snow inland. The morning discussion from the NWS in Taunton, MA implied that if the 00Z run of the GFS were to verify, we'd be measuring the snow in feet, not inches. I used a forecasting tool developed by the NWS in Buffalo (Bufkit) to look at totals, and sure enough, the 00Z GFS amounts for Bedford, MA ranged from 24 to 43 inches :eek: , with lesser amounts (but still well over a foot), for central Mass into central NH. The 06Z run of the GFS backed off on those totals (more in the 9 to 12 inches range). It'll will be interesting to see how this develops.

Island Girl

02-11-2007, 10:25 AM

Glad to see you back here... I love your forecast... we can only hope...

If Bedford gets that much snow... my company will call off work.. Woo Hoo!!!!

IG

wildwoodfam

02-11-2007, 11:47 AM

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2007/henry21107.jpg

I do not know if this link can open, but the Blizzard is now on the "official" map for accuweather.

I know a lot of you enjoy accu weather's forecasts.

I am a tad more convinced today that we will at least be plowing some snow Wednesday and Thursday!!

Looks like a lot here in MA - slightly lesser amounts up at the lake.

Blue Thunder

02-11-2007, 08:26 PM

Skip

02-11-2007, 08:33 PM

I was just thinking the other day when model discussion was at a frenzied pace...where's Rose??? I used to always love your level headed approach to prognostication. It's been at least a year hasn't it??

Blue Thunder

Ad me to the "missing Ms. Rose" list too!

Glad to see you're back throwing petals to the wind, so to speak! :)

Rose

02-11-2007, 09:44 PM

Ad me to the "missing Ms. Rose" list too!

Glad to see you're back throwing petals to the wind, so to speak! :)

Thanks, Skip, for your kind words! You, and Island Girl and Blue Thunder have me all verklempt. Talk amongst yourselves. I'll give you a topic...how is it that Ralph Fiennes spells his name neither Rafe nor Fines...discuss!!!

It's all Resident2B and the CanisLupusArctos who have me excited about laying it all on the line about forecasting again, and I want to thank them for that. It's been a rather boring winter for forecasting so far. I'm not a huge fan of snow, but it's been sooooooooooooo boring, that I'm ready for a good blow.

I haven't had much of a chance to look at the 12Z (7 a.m) runs, but what I have seen shows rain mixing in everywhere after a 10-12 inch dump of snow. All I have to say is YUCK:eek: !!! Who wants rain after a good batch of snow?? This storm has been all over the place for the past few days...we'll just have to wait and see. I'll put my two cents worth in when I can. I have a couple of people at work who will lynch me if we don't get a good amount of snow out of this storm!!

Resident 2B

02-11-2007, 11:26 PM

Rose,

I am sure it will snow because I am away in Florida. I like a few weeks in Florida, especially at the races in Daytona, but I love a good snow storm. Because I am away, I am sure it will snow.

I started to see this storm last Wednesday looking at models and tele-connections, and I posted it on this thread at this time. (See post #61) I am still learning about tele-connections and using them to forecast is an art. Joe Bastardi of Accu-weather is the absolute best at using these. He is usually way ahead of the models.

Looking at the models, they are coming closer together with storm track, but there are still differences. I feel it will go over Cape Cod and change to rain for a time Boston southward. Some models have it closer, but I think it will be over the Cape. However, the rapid deepening of the low, once it hits the ocean near the Virginia Capes, is likely to pull in cold air faster than the models are showing. If this happens and if the track is over Cape Cod, the Lakes Region gets a very big storm. That is what I think will happen, but we are still several days away. Big to me is feet, not inches.

On Feb 7th, I also thought there could be a storm in the around Feb 21st and although the first snow should be bigger, the second storm will be bigger than avarage. This would be inches, not feet.

Again, time will tell. It always does!

Welcome back Rose! Since this discussion inspired your return, all the credit goes to CLA who started this thread. I am enjoying the thread as much as you are.

It is great to read your forecasts again.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-12-2007, 12:17 AM

I'm so glad to see a thread with so many other weather nuts! Welcome, Rose. The last couple days I stayed busy with Fishing Derby photos out on the ice and didn't have time to check the models (a watched pot never boils)... plus, R2B is in Florida, so between his being away (jinxing himself) and my failure to watch the pot, perhaps it is about to boil!

I just had a quick look at the discussions from NWS-Taunton and Gray, and I see them mentioning QPF's of 3+ inches, which translates into "an awful lot of snow" as their night shift forecaster stated better than I could say myself. Sounds like all the models are on board with a track close to the coast, with three models even tracking it inland a little, but I agree with Gray's discussion that the models often do track New England's storms too far inland and fail to consider the localized coastal fronts that they often follow... AND that it's hard to imagine the storm barelling up against the arctic air we'll have on top of us at the time it arrives.

The only snow-limiting factor I can see happening, given this scenario, is the localized effect that messed me up slightly on the storm a week ago (forecast posted on this thread): Some ocean air did work its way into the mid-levels over the lake for just a few hours and changed the powder snow to the heavy sticky variety, and we also had a bit of freezing drizzle for a time. Instead of the 20:1 QPF-snow ratio we had more of the average 10:1... but even at 10:1, if (or wherever) the 3"+ QPF materializes it would be 30 inches of snow.

R2B did you say something about the Lake needing some snow to protect the ice from the strengthening sun? Good point. Blizzard or not, This should give us enough snow to do the trick. A postscript - the ice thickness between Black Cat and Three-Mile Islands is now 18 inches of crystal clear, solid ice. In my earlier measurement of 9 inches I'm guessing I was too close to a dock circulator (I thought I was far enough away...) but one of the ice fishermen measured it for me as I watched yesterday. This is very significant considering this part of the lake was open water exactly 21 days ago. Considering the thickness and quality of the ice, this upcoming snow could help the ice pack make up for the time it lost at the beginning of the season.

For those who don't know already, I have a bunch of links to my favorite weather images and text data at www.blackcatnh.com/weather - enjoy!

In the meantime it's bedtime - I'll resist the temptation to look at the models for now and wait 'til coffee time in a few more hours. That way if something of epic proportions really is materializing I'll have something I can reflexively spit at the screen. :D

GWC...

02-12-2007, 12:18 AM

Being New England, this forecast must also be part of the speculation:

http://images.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/Surface48hr/usa.gif
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=Forecasts&product=Surface48hr&prodnav=none

CanisLupusArctos

02-12-2007, 12:07 PM

This thing is too complicated. The GFS even shows a third low-pressure getting into the act way offshore which would take some strength away from the main system. Others are still producing only the 2 main Lows but enough flip-flopping on the issue of "track" to keep every forecaster on-edge. Us snow-starved snow-lovers are starting to get the facial expressions that Red Sox fans often assume when Big Papi has a chance to hit a walk-off homer.

In any case, any snowstorm greater than 5 inches would be the biggest of this winter so far at Winnipesaukee.

Some other climatological facts from Black Cat Island:

With some light snow falling this morning, this is the 5th consecutive day with snowfall recorded here. Snow has fallen on 15 of the last 17 days, but only producing 5.5 inches. February has given snowfall on all but one day so far, but most of it has been either a trace or 0.1" from squalls except the 4.8 inch storm we had 10 days ago.

Temp-wise, this morning marks 10 straight days with lows in the single numbers or lower. We have now been below freezing (32 F / 0 C) for the last 30 days. During that time the temp has only risen to 30 or 31 on 3 days, and 12 days have featured daytime maxes of 19 or lower.

In the wind department, we've had winds from the northwest for 10 straight days now, and on 15 of the last 20 days.

For anyone wondering, the snow falling at the lake this morning is not related to the Wednesday storm, and is part of the arctic cold blast moving in for tonight that will kick up those NW winds again and provide a couple more mornings in the single numbers, and at least another daytime high in the teens (tomorrow.)

CLA

SIKSUKR

02-12-2007, 01:08 PM

Ok,in my opinion its still too early to predict snowfall amounts accurately from this storm.Having said that,I'll go with 10-12 inches in the lakes region.

Resident 2B

02-12-2007, 01:28 PM

Per CLA, this is a tough one! That is for sure.

It does look like a stormy day on Wednesday; the question is how stormy and how much snow.

Complication the situation is the cold air, the warm ocean, storm intensity and the storm track. Four very interesting variables in this case.

There is cold air in place and the flow is bringing more in. However, the ocean is warm for this time of the year and if the path of the storm is inside of Cape Cod, there will be a more easterly flow at some levels and the warm water will have some impact. How intense and which center wins the phasing battle, if there is to be phasing, is a big question. Finally, somewhat related to phasing is the track of the dominent center.

Here is what I am thinking with the latest data in and a slow day at the track allowing time for such thinking. We have a very interesting 24 to 30 hours of weather starting after midnight Tuesday. I see this storm as a big mixer with white cake batter on one side representing the cold air and chocolate cake batter on the other side representating the warm air. It is looking like we will get some 'marble cake' as a result of turning the mixer on. This was suggested by Rose last evening. That is looking like a great call!

I think that there will be a fair period of rain along the coast, but a lot of it will be freezing rain. Inland, still mixing, but with less ice. I would not rule out rain with surface tempatures still in the mid 20's even in the Lakes Region. This will compress the snow keeping the storm more like and 8:1 that the 20:1 that the surface tempatures would suggest.

Bottom line is a very interesting event with a lot of snow at the beginning and the end, with a mix of something in the middle in the Winnipesaukee area.

It will get cold down here in Florida. The truck race on Friday night should see wind chill around 30 degrees. The grandstand should sheild the wind a bit, but it will be cold. I need to go buy a warmer jacket before the "good ole boyz" realize what the weather will be. Most of them freeze at about 50 degrees.

Below is Henry's latest map switching the red zone northward and westward.

Time will tell!

R2B

SteveA

02-12-2007, 05:36 PM

Ok,in my opinion its still too early to predict snowfall amounts accurately from this storm.Having said that,I'll go with 10-12 inches in the lakes region.

I'll clear off the top of the kitty litter bucket, and warn the cat.:emb:

CanisLupusArctos

02-12-2007, 06:10 PM

I'll clear off the top of the kitty litter bucket, and warn the cat.:emb:

YES! Post some new pics of those 2 snow gauges - both the plastic one and the furry one!

SteveA

02-12-2007, 10:00 PM

YES! Post some new pics of those 2 snow gauges - both the plastic one and the furry one!

I'm totally lost with all the technical weather stuff.... but I really like this thread.... The Furry One is named Yuki.. I'm told it translates from Japanese to ... Snowball.. (how perfect is that)

PS If the snow really get's to more than 7” I’ll end up with a pissed off cat and a really pissed off wife…!

So… we’ll have to use the kitty litter bucket..

(Yes darling.. I told them…. Yuki will be fine up to about 7”…….. I promise…)

CanisLupusArctos

02-13-2007, 12:18 AM

...There's your solution for measuring snow over Yuki's head! Get that cat a buddy! Then you can measure the snow in Yukies, whereby a snowstorm of Y1 is 7 inches or a "typical winter storm," Y2 = 14 inches or a good dumping of snow, Y3 = 21 inches or a very heavy once-in-a-few-years snowstorm, Y4 = an all-out blizzard of 28 inches, and Y5 = a return to the kind of winters they used to have when everyone's parents had to walk uphill through 10 feet of snow to get to AND FROM school.

On another note, this is the dryest air I've seen in a while - dewpoint dropping from -16 F, temp at +4 and dropping. Incredible considering we had almost T-shirt weather this afternoon (up to near freezing now feels like T-shirt weather!)

Resident 2B

02-13-2007, 12:44 AM

Before I start, Steve A, is your new avatar taken from the new video: "How they Light a Fireplace on Governors Island"?

Getting to the weather, it is still looking like a good storm. Consensus of models seems to be holding just inside the benchmark of 40/70, that magical point out off the southeast New England coast that give us the best (most intense) storms when they track over that point. The GFS is still looking like a flatter, multiple-centered storm on the individual runs. This can reduce the snow amounts, but I do not think the GFS has a great handle on this.

CLA is right, the air is dry and it is cold. It could be the battle of the air masses that enhances the snow. Thunder snow?? Perhaps in a few places.

I just do not see the storm taking an inside track with such reinforced cold air well in place. If there is a warmer marine layer a mile or so up, it will mean sleet or freezing rain because the surface layer is likely to remain well below freezing.

I am going with almost 3" of liquid in total and a overall 8:1 ratio, one-and-a-half to two feet of white gold! Perhaps more in the White Mountains .

I am sorry I am missing it!

Time will tell!

R2B

SIKSUKR

02-13-2007, 07:24 AM

CLA showed dewpoints of -16.Don't know where that was from but I can say they were even lower than that in northern NH.Whitefield was -22 F this morning.That's some cold entrenched air but as I have seen in the past,it doesn't take long to turn that around with a large coastal storm. Having said that,looks like I might have to up my estimate to 12-16 inches in the lakes region.I'm as giddy as a 3 year old at X-mas.I still wake up to watch the plow go by on my street in the middle of the night.Bring it on!!!

SteveA

02-13-2007, 08:20 AM

...There's your solution for measuring snow over Yuki's head! Get that cat a buddy! Then you can measure the snow in Yukies, whereby a snowstorm of Y1 is 7 inches or a "typical winter storm," Y2 = 14 inches or a good dumping of snow, Y3 = 21 inches or a very heavy once-in-a-few-years snowstorm, Y4 = an all-out blizzard of 28 inches, and Y5 = a return to the kind of winters they used to have when everyone's parents had to walk uphill through 10 feet of snow to get to AND FROM school.

Yuki already has all the buddies we can handle... Harley,Charley,Maya,Jada,CC,Lexi and Lucy...
Lexi and CC are 15 and 21 years old... so they would have to be a last resort..:D

If I had to use them would it be a...... (get ready) at CATagory 8 storm?

Someday we'll make the channel 9 news.... I can see it now.. neighbors being interviewed.. "They really seemed to be very normal people..":laugh:

Gatto Nero

02-13-2007, 09:06 AM

All of the talking heads that I've seen on TV are saying 25"+ in the Lakes Region and north. Yee Hah

Rose

02-13-2007, 11:01 AM

Y1 is 7 inches or a "typical winter storm," Y2 = 14 inches or a good dumping of snow, Y3 = 21 inches or a very heavy once-in-a-few-years snowstorm

I'm forecasting a Y2 to Y2.6 in the Lakes Region. :D

Island Girl

02-13-2007, 12:24 PM

Since I live near the hump of 495... how much will I get... also Concord MA where I work??? I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!

GWC...

02-13-2007, 12:34 PM

Since I live near the hump of 495... how much will I get... also Concord MA where I work??? I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!
Sharpen the old ice skates, if you do not have studded snow tires or chains... ;)

Rose

02-13-2007, 12:52 PM

Since I live near the hump of 495... how much will I get... also Concord MA where I work??? I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!

I'm forecasting 6-10" for Concord, MA and 8-12" for the hump. Of course, I'm ready to fall on my sword because this is one nasty storm to forecast what with warm air being wrapped around the storm at upper levels, leading to a mixed bag in places. And there's always those damn precipitation holes that seem to form whenever a Nor'easter is bombing out near us (and I'm usually under that hole :( ).

Just got the latest files in to run the Bufkit utility on. Looks like more mixing further inland in MA, so knock half a Yuki off the above estimates.

CanisLupusArctos

02-13-2007, 01:42 PM

For those wondering, all my readings are taken from Black Cat Island unless otherwise noted. This morning the dewpoint bottomed out at -20 and the temp has yet to reach 10 degrees. We are at the day's high of 9 and it is 1:30 p.m. I'm looking forward to a Y2-Y3 level snowstorm (see previous posts about Yuki the cat!) If we all pray maybe it'll even become a Y4. :) A CATagory 8 storm would be more like the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" I think!

Haven't had time to look at the models yet but will cast my bet when I do, sometime this afternoon. Wooo hoooo, this is fun! SIKSUKR, like you, I never outgrew watching the snowplow go by! I agree, R2B, a definite battle of the air masses is setting up. That dawned on me within 5 minutes of my waking up and turning on the TV. First we consider all the moisture that's getting sucked into the system from the Gulf of Mexico (This morning's headline on NBC News is a deadly--and rare--tornado that ripped through New Orleans last night.) Then we look at the air mass it's going to be battling (by checking our own thermometers, pressure, and dewpoint readings right here in NH) and we see it's almost a battle of North Pole air vs. Equator air. Thundersnow? Good call. Something I've always wanted to see is a snow-nado! :D Then we could call it a Y5-F5!

The immediate project for this afternoon is getting my new weather station online alongside the Winni WeatherCam. I've had it for a few weeks and there's nothing like an impending snowstorm to provide motivation. Everything physical is installed, now just a matter of CLA vs. the Software.

Here's a shot from the WxCam this morning - "Red Sky in the Morning, Sailor's Warning..."

boathousegirl

02-13-2007, 01:52 PM

Not to be intrusive, but do you live on Black Cat Island in the winter???? If you do, I'm awestruck. Good for you!

boathousegirl

02-13-2007, 01:58 PM

Forgive my ignorance, Black Cat is a bridged island. Next time I'll do some research before I ask the question. Sorry about that!

Merrymeeting

02-13-2007, 01:59 PM

I selfishly want to know if work will be called off tomorrow!!!! Woo Hoo!!!!

IG, can I come work with you? Where I work all it means is that you can start earlier and end later because you don't have communte time! As long as the phone lines and comcast are online, work doesn't shut down anymore. :rolleye1:

Gatto Nero

02-13-2007, 02:24 PM

Lakegeezer

02-13-2007, 07:54 PM

Island Girl

02-13-2007, 08:08 PM

IG, can I come work with you? Where I work all it means is that you can start earlier and end later because you don't have communte time! As long as the phone lines and comcast are online, work doesn't shut down anymore. :rolleye1:

Many people at my company do not have outside access... so they have to let all of us not work when they call it off for the day!!! Then again some of us do some work anyway... since I work at home 2 days a week .. I try not to abuse the situation too much.... and my boss has a place in Alton region and is probably reading this!!! ;)

Come on folks... dance with the Babes!!!

WINDinmySOCKIES

02-13-2007, 09:25 PM

This is my first post although I have been hanging out for awhile. Just wanted to say Hello, and wish I was there for the coming snow, but I missed it by a week. Wanted to let all the weather nuts like myself know that I am
one hour northwest of phila, PA, and your snow is on the way,. It has been snowing pretty good here for a couple of hours now, with unfortunately some heavy sleet mixing in now. Hope to get up next weekend to play in the snow.
Hope you all enjoy...its been a long wait! Be safe... I am going to figure out fun activities for an ice storm....which is what we're getting 2-mmorrow!

CanisLupusArctos

02-14-2007, 12:57 AM

CLA,

I'm looking forward to checking out the time lapse section of your web cam tomorrow so I can watch the snow pile up. Is there anyway to save a more than the normal number of pictures for that so we can watch the whole day?

For those of you that don't know what I am talking about check this out this very cool feature.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/timelapse.html

Got ya covered. I've been saving the images in a snowstorm folder on my desktop since sunrise Tuesday. At the end of the storm I'll put them all together into one long time-lapse of the storm. To see an example of this, look in www.blackcatnh.com/archive.html and click the link to the "snow squalls time lapse" (or whatever I called it.. can't remember...). That's from one of the snow squalls we had last week.

Now as for how it's done... I got the idea from someone else's web cam in the midwest, and googled it to see how it's done. It brought me to a site about how to create animations using a string of JPG images and java code. I had to teach myself the Java code and customize it for my purposes. You can do it too - all you need is a web cam that keeps a rotating archive of images on your web server.

On the weather end of things, temps topped out at 14 today with a low of -1, and we're just waiting for the snow now. The dewpoint is gradually coming up and currently stands at -10 with air temp of +10. The radar shows a lot of snow falling over us now, but it is not reaching the ground because it is evaporating into the extremely dry air above us. When the intensity picks up it will finally break through to ground level, and then.... watch out.

The National Weather Service has upped the storm total for the lakes region to: 1-3 inches by morning, 12-18 inches during the day, and 6-10 inches tomorrow night... with winds of 40 mph possible. I still haven't looked at the models because I been wrestling with my weather station's networking connection to try to get that bad boy online in time for the storm! I'm a few steps closer than I was earlier (got it to upload data from earlier today) but still can't get the "LIVE DATA" element going. And now I'm yawning. Oh well. Better luck after morning coffee. :)

gtxrider

02-14-2007, 08:23 AM

I just took a quick look at several webcams is that snow I see? The B.O.S. seem to gotten the 2 step fiqured out!

We have a mess here in Joisey.

wildwoodfam

02-14-2007, 08:45 AM

Reporting in at 15 degrees :eek: - pressure at 29.95, with windswept snow AND sleet - stings the face!! I'd say we have had around or just over 3 inches...though it is blowing around and my measuring may be a bit off. Hard to believe that with the track moving out off Cape Cod that we could make the change over to freezing rain as the TV folks are saying....I am holding out that we will only go to snow AND sleet which it is doing now....that track is critical!

DRH

02-14-2007, 09:09 AM

It's 7 degs here at 9:00 AM with heavy snowfall. There's about 3" on the ground at this point.

WMUR currently shows the lake straddling a 12" - 18" projected accumulation area and a 15" - 30" accumulation area. Most of the state is under a Blizzard Warning throughout the day.

gtxrider has it right ... the Babes on Sleds seem to have done their job! They'll be out there playing this coming weekend for sure.

http://www.echoshores.com/images/sleds.gif

ghfromaltonbay

02-14-2007, 09:38 AM

gtxrider has it right ... the Babes on Sleds seem to have done their job! They'll be out there playing this coming weekend for sure.

And what's even better, gtxrider, the nephew and I will be there with them!!!:D

CanisLupusArctos

02-14-2007, 10:01 AM

We have about 5-6 inches of snow on the ground at Black Cat... still in nightclothes, the farthest I've been outside is to lean out the door with a cupful of birdseed for those hungry chickadees et al, so no "real" measurement yet. The rain gauge heater works! (so far...) It was one of my Home Depot jury-rigs to save money, and it's melted 0.34 inches so far this morning. The average rate of fall is 0.10 inch/hour.

Lots of temperature uniformity among stations this morning: Temps are 12 F at Concord, Rochester, and Keene. Laconia is 10. Meanwhile the truly arctic air is just across the river in VT where all stations are 3 F this hour. By contrast Beverly Airport in MA is reporting 28.

The National Weather Service has upgraded the winter storm warning to a Blizzard warning for most of the state of NH including the lakes region. It has been 2 years since I heard those two beautiful words! And I had to go down to Boston to get the brunt of it last time.

For those wondering, a Blizzard Warning means visibility is reduced to under 1/4 mile in heavy snow (falling anew, OR just blowing around without new snow falling)... and winds sustained at 35+ mph for several hours. The Blizzard Warning actually has nothing to do with amounts, but usually a snowstorm capable of producing sustained 35 mph winds (tropical depression equivalent) is usually going to produce a lot of snow. In the midwest where it's flat, blizzard warnings often remain in effect for a day or two after a storm because the wind keeps blowing the snow around, limiting visibility. That would be a "ground blizzard" but if you're trying to drive through it, it's all the same.

Let's hear some blizzard stories - anyone ever gotten disoriented on the Winnipesaukee lake ice in heavy snow? Happened to me in the early 90s.

The Black Cat Island weather station is now online. It finally started uploading after I rebooted the computer (one more time.) The page that's up now is the software's own automated creation so I'll figure out how to customize it later. In the meantime you can view the data at www.blackcatnh.com/weather/index.htm.

Gatto Nero

02-14-2007, 10:35 AM

The Black Cat Island weather station is now online. It finally started uploading after I rebooted the computer (one more time.) The page that's up now is the software's own automated creation so I'll figure out how to customize it later. In the meantime you can view the data at www.blackcatnh.com/weather/index.htm.

CLA,

For the slow guys in the crowd, like me..... The Current Conditions part of that page is generated from your physical equipment on Black Cat and the rest is downloaded from a central server? Is that correct?

CanisLupusArctos

02-14-2007, 10:45 AM

GN (and others wondering,)

The data (temp, wind, etc.) all comes from my weather station, which is wired into my computer, and that sends the info to the internet using the software I bought from ambientweather.com.

The other stuff (sattelite pics, etc.) doesn't come from me. I'm actually still trying to figure out who's producing it (reading the user manual.) I just moused over some of the included links to see what the addresses of the links were (because I was as curious as you are, and I didn't put 'em there...) and it seems a lot of it comes from weather underground (www.wunderground.com.) Looking in the Ambient software's toolbar I see Wunderground has its own drop-down menu, so I'm assuming the suits at Wunderground and the suits at Ambient have shaken hands in a board room.

I'm still exploring this software myself, after lots of hair-pulling trying to get it to work yesterday it finally started working on its own while I was in the shower this morning... so lots for me to figure out -- in between sessions of playing in the snow and polishing my skis, of course. :)

SIKSUKR

02-14-2007, 01:17 PM

Great idea CLA.Thanks for the weather station on Blackcat.

GWC...

02-14-2007, 01:38 PM

The Black Cat Island weather station is now online. It finally started uploading after I rebooted the computer (one more time.) The page that's up now is the software's own automated creation so I'll figure out how to customize it later. In the meantime you can view the data at www.blackcatnh.com/weather/index.htm.
There is also this local data from Varney Point, Gilford, NH

Click on the image below...

http://www.rochlis.com/personal/webcam/thumb-varney-point-0.jpg (http://www.rochlis.com/weather/)
http://www.rochlis.com/personal/weather/

Just Sold

02-14-2007, 02:05 PM

CLA love your web cam and weather info. Here in Sandown it is really picking up too. :D http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopost/showphoto.php?photo=10792&cat=500&ppuser=628

mcdude

02-14-2007, 06:01 PM

The WOLFEBORO CARWASH CAM (http://www.lakewebcams.com/lakewebcams_070102/Slu/Washcam_page2.html)is actually giving a pretty idea of the snow at the lake. Looks like it's light and blowing around.

christo1

02-14-2007, 06:58 PM

I am looking to ride the sleds this weekend,can anyone tell me how much snow you got up there?

wildwoodfam

02-14-2007, 07:33 PM

Hey everyone - well - I hate to do this - but in the end I was right - :rolleye2: - in my earlier post I declared I would not allow for a rain mix and sure enough, Haverhill NEVER turned to anything but a mix of sleet and mostly snow - as a result - 12.6 inches and there is astill a hefty band coming up from the south so maybe we end up with 14" on the 14th! Would be cool!

It stayed very cold here - climbed to 24 at around 4pm (heavy sleet at that time). I'd say we had about 4 inches of sleet mix - plowed at 12noon and then again at 430 and the 430 was sleet - sleet - sleet. Snowing and blowing as I type - gusting to 16 mph on the back deck.

How'd you all do up around that gorgeous lake!!

DRH

02-14-2007, 09:03 PM

I am looking to ride the sleds this weekend,can anyone tell me how much snow you got up there?I would estimate we have about 12" and it's still snowing here in West Alton.

CanisLupusArctos

02-14-2007, 10:16 PM

Thank you for the compliments on the new weather data with the web cam. GWC, your cam was actually one of several that originally inspired me to this idea - it's one of my favorites.

...Storm Log...

At 9:00 p.m. on Black Cat we passed the 1-foot mark for the snowstorm. There was an average of 12.5 inches in the yard with many places blown down to bare ground by northeast winds that gusted to 39 mph this afternoon. There are other areas of snow drifted over 2 feet. On the lake's new snowpack, the bottom layer is turning to mush like it always does, because the water below the ice is still above freezing and radiating "heat" up.

On land the snow is *not* the perfect western-style powder they're getting in Vermont and NY State. It's not snowball-making snow, either. It has about the consistency of manmade snow from the ski areas. This is due to a brief period of heavy sleet and just a tad bit of freezing rain between 3 and 5 pm. During that time the wind was straight east and introduced just a little bit of the milder ocean air from the seacoast part of the state, but it was short lived.

As the storm moved farther up the coast our winds actually wrestled between east and northwest for a half-hour or so. When the winds were east, sleet and some freezing rain would mix. After a few minutes it would blast out of the northwest and change to all snow again, and repeated the process a few times in the course of an hour.

Around the dinner hour the winds switched into the northwest and stayed, indicating the storm's passing by. A normal winter storm would be over at this point, but this thing is such a strong whirlpool in the atmosphere that it's pulling the snow around to its backside as well. On the strenth of the "whirlpool;" check your home barometers! The pressure here has dropped to 29.05, which is more often seen in the eyes of Category 1 hurricanes.

After a 1-hour lull during the storm's passage, the snow is now back in high gear. For snowfall reports go to this self-updating text report from the National Weather Service:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/products/PWMWRKGYX

There is a link to it and many others like it, at www.blackcatnh.com/weather.

Forecast... Tomorrow should be bittersweet for skiers... on one hand it will be great to cut some freshies in the slopes but getting there will be the issue since blizzard conditions will continue into the early morning (off and on), even after the snow stops falling. Also, tomorrow will be a return to the walk-in freezer we've been living in for over a month now, and winds will howl out of the northwest. If it weren't for the presence of fresh snow, tomorrow and Friday would be good days to hang out in the base lodge.

For the mountains this means more snow because the nearby storm will keep the air unstable and moist enough to wring out more snowflakes from any air current that finds itself riding uphill into the cooler summit air. This should continue into Friday, gradually diminishing.

...UPDATE AT MIDNIGHT...

Woweee, windy. Winds now averaging 15 out of the NW (and blocked by a tree in that direction too) and gusting regularly to 30 mph... increasing. Lights flickering. Temp is headed back into the single numbers within the hour. I just went to use the mouthwash, whose bottle I haven't opened since this time last night, and it actually gave a "hissss" as it opened. That shows how dramatically the air pressure has fallen with this storm so close. Pressure's 29.07 and on the way back up.

SteveA

02-15-2007, 08:34 AM

The kitty litter bucket gauge was a total flop... the wind kept blowing off the snow..

A simple tape measure reading had us at between 13 and 14" here in Gilford Village.

I did try to use the actual Yuki Gauge... but based on his reaction, and for the sake of my relationship with my wife, I decided not to try it.

1201

Weirs guy

02-15-2007, 12:25 PM

I did try to use the actual Yuki Gauge... but based on his reaction, and for the sake of my relationship with my wife, I decided not to try it.

Steve, have you ever seen "strangers on a train" (I haven't, but it came up on a CSI re-run last night). You know, 2 strangers fix each others "problem" so there's no link to the crime? Maybe I could run the Yuki Gauge and lend you my Sophie C Gauge! :D

(Whats that dear, no, I'd NEVER put our precious little Sophie kitty out in this type of snow dear. No, not even when she bites my toes in the middle of the night.)

SteveA

02-15-2007, 12:39 PM

WG

I still don't understand why she won't let me toss the cats into the snow... I bet they would actually really like it.....:D

PS... you lie... I'll swear to it! :)

and what's up with the "middle of the night toe biting"..? We had one like that when we lived back in Melrose Mass

DRH

02-15-2007, 05:30 PM

Today was a sunny but very cold, very windy winter day. The wind gusted to 40+ mph at times.

I took this photo at 4:30 PM, showing the blowing snow out on the frozen lake. It was 14 degrees outside when I took the picture, and I can only imagine the wind chill out at those bob houses (which were unoccupied today!)

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopost/data/510/medium/BobHouses_1_021507.jpg

Click here (http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopost/data/510/BobHouses_1_021507.jpg) for a larger image.

trfour

02-15-2007, 09:15 PM

Being a weather nut – without the (wing) – in front of it – myself ;) , I have to commend CLA, R2B, DRH, our resident lovely Rose and others here for this very informative and interesting thread!!
<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
I believe Rose was our first forum weather forecaster (correct me if I’m wrong) a pioneer if you will, and dearly beloved.<O:p></O:p>
<O:p></O:p>
Speaking of pioneers, I remember back when all we had was the US</ST1:p weather bureau to rely on for forecasting. In 1951 WBZ-AM radio hired the first meteorologist to broadcast forecasts of weather in the Country; his name, Don Kent. He didn’t have many of today’s computer models or other tools to help him and to use a phrase,“flew by the seat of his pants“ and consistently nailed the forecasts. My very large family relied totally on Don whenever weather was concerned, from a good day at the beach or a nor’easter hurricane, from NS, <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com /><st1:country-region w:st=<ST1 /><st1:City w:st=Cape Breton Island</st1:City> <st1:State w:st=" /><st1:State w:st="on">Vermont</st1:State>, <st1:State w:st="on">New Hampshire</st1:State>, Mass., <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pFlorida</ST1:p</st1:State> and out west as well.<O:p></O:p>
<O:p></O:p>
I always wanted to call and thank him for helping to keep my family prepared & safe over his long career and this past Tuesday I did. He was so gracious to talk to me, for the better part of forty five minutes, and you would think in his retirement he would be kick’n back and taking life easy, but he told me that on Monday he had been out in the yard burning brush, and while talking to me, was watching no less than three computer screens tracking Wednesday’s storm. He not only gave me his forecast and snow depths for this one, “right on Don “, and hinted about the next Big One!. Part of our conversation of course, was for him to come out here and visit this thread and maybe give us a comment. He said to give him about two weeks.<O:p></O:p>
<O:p></O:p>
Anyway, thank you all for letting me ramble on here, and keep it coming!!<O:p></O:p>
<O:p></O:p>
Kudos to you all! :) <O:p></O:p>

CanisLupusArctos

02-15-2007, 10:39 PM

Trfour, I'm so glad to know that Don Kent is still around, and still doing what he always loved. As a little kid I watched Don Kent on Ch. 4 Boston draw weather systems on a chalkboard map -- and the fact that I'm only 30 (yet I remember TV weather done on a chalkboard) shows how far weather forecasting and presentation has come in a short time. As a teenage weather nut I got to know Barry Burbank, who told me Don Kent had been his own childhood inspiration while growing up in southern Maine. Barry went to college in Massachusetts and has been following Don's footsteps in the Boston TV market ever since. Needless to say, Don Kent has inspired several generations of us weather geeks and New Englanders (for the record, I think every "true" New Englander is at least somewhat of a weather geek by nature.)

DRH, great photo! The light, color, and contrast jump right out at me.

SteveA, thank you so much as always for keeping me entertained with "Yuki vs. the snowstorm." :laugh: The first photo a couple weeks ago should be a greeting card, and this most recent one pretty much puts the Valentine's Blizzard into perspective! Given the previously discussed Yuki scale it sounds like you had a Y2-level snow event there in Gilford Village! Purrhaps Yuki will someday get to meet Nin, the Mount Washington Observatory's cat.

For anyone wondering what the NH snow tallies were, here's the report from the National Weather Service. Center Harbor was my report.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...BELKNAP COUNTY...
CENTER HARBOR 14.4 829 AM 2/15
GILFORD 10.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
TILTON 7.8 820 AM 2/15

...CARROLL COUNTY...
NORTH CONWAY 17.0 728 AM 2/15
SOUTH CHATHAM 15.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
MADISON 14.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
CONWAY 13.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
WOLFEBORO 10.5 655 AM 2/15

...COOS COUNTY...
GORHAM COMMON 28.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
DIXVILLE NOTCH 24.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
PINKHAM NOTCH SCENIC 23.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
COLEBROOK 22.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
COLUMBIA 22.0 712 AM 2/15
TWIN MOUNTAIN 22.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
ERROL 20.0 750 AM 2/15
TWIN MOUNTAIN 19.5 750 AM 2/15
LANCASTER 19.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
WHITEFIELD 18.0 1145 PM 2/15

...GRAFTON COUNTY...
LISBON 21.0 750 AM 2/15
LOST RIVER 20.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
FRANCONIA NOTCH 19.5 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT
WOODSTOCK 17.0 900 AM 2/15
WEST CAMPTON 11.0 730 AM 2/15
PLYMOUTH 10.0 500 AM 2/15 NH DOT

...MERRIMACK COUNTY...
NEW LONDON 17.0 607 AM 2/15
HENNIKER 12.0 740 AM 2/15
CONCORD 8.3 700 AM 2/15

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
EPPING 13.0 1130 AM 2/15
NOTTINGHAM 12.5 634 AM 2/15

...STRAFFORD COUNTY...
STRAFFOD 7.5 820 AM 2/15
SOMERSWORTH 7.2 418 AM 2/15

...SULLIVAN COUNTY...
NEWPORT 17.0 930 PM 2/15
SUNAPEE 16.0 338 AM 2/15
WASHINGTON 16.0 708 AM 2/15

And a snowfall map with colors we haven't seen on a snowfall map in a while... (bear in mind this is snow DEPTH, not just the most recent storm.)

trfour

02-16-2007, 12:46 AM

Not only is he still around, first of all, I expected to get his answering machine and finding out that he was wintering in Florida! Not Don, he was up to his eyeballs in, like you said, doing what he loves and that is this crazy good O’L <ST1:pNew England</ST1:p weather.<O:p</O:p
The phone only rang once before he answered, and of course I recognized his voice instantly. I was pleasantly surprised during our conversation of his wonderful sense of humor that of course he mostly left out of his broadcasts. I guess we are all more serious when working. Goes without saying, he’s very well educated, chipper, friendly, down to earth and very interesting to talk to. I was thrilled, and he now knows that my family and I love him.<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
Barry Burbank is good friends with my younger brother and sister in-law, in fact went to their wedding. Small world!<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
Don did tell me that he doesn’t do E-mail or many phone calls, understandably because he’d be spending all of his free time answering them.<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
So for now, lets keep our fingers crossed that he will check out this thread, and like you said CLA, he knows he fostered all of us weather nuts, and I’m sure he will be proud of you. :)

PS, On a snowy day, if you look just right you will see the smile of the great spirit high in the Ossipee's!<O:p</O:p

Rose

02-16-2007, 08:27 AM

I'm not sure if I was the first or not, but thanks for your kind words. They're much appreciated.

I think it's awesome that you called Don Kent!!! He always seemed so gracious on air...nice to know he's the same in real life.

SIKSUKR

02-16-2007, 09:35 AM

Don Kent was is my all time favorite Weatherman,hands down.I loved watching him draw the lows and highs and wind direction on the weather board.He was paired with Jack Chase on WBZ for what seemed like 25 years.He just made you feel real good listening to him.Glad to hear he's doing well.Does he still have that same accent?

trfour

02-16-2007, 01:11 PM

Hi SS,<O:p</O:p
About Don’s accent, no mistaking who your talking to, that one of a kind voice, as is he. He was teamed with, and very apropos I might add, some of the most talented and entertaining people in the world! I’m adding a link for all of those history buffs out there.<O:p</O:p
<O:p></O:p>
http://www.wbz1030.com/pages/3721.php (http://www.wbz1030.com/pages/3721.php) <O:p></O:p>
<O:p</O:p
And my dear Rose, you are so eloquently modest, and a gem!<O:p</O:p
<O:p></O:p>
CLA; It is a God send in having a specifically customized weather station for us here in the Lakes Region, brilliant! <O:p</O:p

CanisLupusArctos

02-16-2007, 09:57 PM

The lake looks so much better with all that bright white snow on it. All-natural remedy for SAD if you ask me.

For those who were asking earlier (Such as Gatto Nero), the time-lapse Java animation of the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2007 is now online. It starts with the red sunrise on the 13th, skies cloud up during the day, then follows the storm through the 14th and ends after showing sunrise and lots of blowing snow on the morning of the 15th.

I should warn you, there are 460 images that are programmed to pre-load before the animation starts. Otherwise, Enjoy!

www.blackcatnh.com/blizzard2007

For future reference, major weather events and any other phenomena I deem worthy of a saved animation will be posted on www.blackcatnh.com/archive.html.

CLA

JTA

02-16-2007, 11:53 PM

Fabulous! I'm really enjoying your webcam work!!

CanisLupusArctos

02-17-2007, 10:21 AM

Thank you, JTA, trfour, and others for all the encouragement on the weather & webcam stuff. I'm so glad you enjoy it.

Last night I made some cosmetic changes to the weather page and the webcam page. There are probably a few more changes to come, depending on what kind of inspiration I get.

Now for all who can't be here to witness winter on Winni, here's a video I recorded yesterday, for your meditation and relaxation. It's not exciting, nor is it meant to be. It's 9 minutes long and is good for unwinding - listen to the wind howl, the birds chirping, see the snow blowing and drifting, and concentrate on breathing deep & slow! You might even cue up some piano solos in your CD player while you watch - I didn't dub it in for reasons of copyright. Enjoy!

www.thesilentforest.com/WinnipesaukeeWinterDay.wmv

Silver Duck

02-17-2007, 10:57 AM

Fabulous! Thanks a million for that!

Silver Duck

Hermit Cover

02-17-2007, 12:00 PM

Is the Winnie Web the greatest...or what? If I could carry a tune I'd sing more praises for all that goes on on this site. Thanks for the short film....I just sent my son the link so he can appreciate what this winter at Winni is all about....Oh, by the way, he and his family live in Phoenix and he gets to drive two plus hours to Flagstaff to maybe see some snow in the "Winter"....He summered of the big lake in his youth but has yet to experience a winter on Winni. If there is an award for really great websites....this www should win hands down!!!! Thank you, thank you!!

Weirs guy

02-17-2007, 04:02 PM

We just came in from a few hours on the lake in beautiful conditions! 32 degrees, light wind, sunny. What a great day out there, and not a lot of people around either.

I did try to get the Sophie C Gauge out to check the ice thickness, but the auger seems to have scared her away.:rolleye2: I bet she leaves my toes alone tonight though...

Grant

02-17-2007, 06:15 PM

CLA --

Thanks for the video. I was supposed to be up there this weekend, but events and schedules conspired against me, so this was a nice scratch for my itch. And the time lapse from last evening's sunset was spectacular. Thanks again.

CanisLupusArctos

02-17-2007, 11:55 PM

... and I did notice last night's sunset series on the WeatherCam. I saved the best one for the gallery and let the rest get auto-deleted the next day.

Here's a tip for "Winni-WeatherLand:" Use Gatto Nero's Black Cat Island Cam and the Bear Island Cam to watch for storms approaching, and then use mine to watch them leave.

The Black Cat Island Cam faces SW and will show the approach of any winter weather system coming up the coast (the same systems will overtake my cam from the right).

In summertime the most freakishly violent thunderstorms usually come from the SW, in GN's cam view. All "normal" squalls come from the NW, in the Bear Island Cam's view (which is right nearby). Once the weather is upon us, you can watch it in any of the cams, and when it starts to move out my cam will show it leaving and let you know when the coast is clear again.

Of note today: The temperature on Black Cat hit 33 degrees, thus ending 34 consecutive days below freezing.

Now wasn't today's weather spectacular or what?? Who went skiing today? How are the conditions now? Anyone playing hookie this week to ski some more? :D Looks like the extreme cold pattern may be trying to change for the end of the week and become more normal for late February. Should make for some great ski days.

SIKSUKR

02-19-2007, 01:04 PM

Thanks CLA for your hard work on the weather station cam.I was at Cannon skiing and the snow was good.The crowds were awfull though.Went thurs after the big snow and had a ball.Sat.was a nice mostly sunny day at Cannon but sunday brought kind of a freakish snowfall.We were forcast to get a little snow Sunday afternoon\night but it snowed like crazy Late Sunday morning/midday and we ended up with 6-7 inches!Nice surprize.Huge crowds again though.I would never take time off to ski this week (Mass school vaca)unless you like lots of company.At least the Mt is making some money.

CanisLupusArctos

02-19-2007, 02:41 PM

That's right, thank you for reminding me it is Mass. School vacation week - not a good time to be on the slopes! Maybe I will stay home this week! That's OK, looks like each day this week will bring a few more inches of snow to the slopes and by later this week the arctic-cold pattern will be changing to something more comfy for skiing.

I did see someone XC-skiing on the lake ice today, as winds gusted over 50 and temps were around 10. My station's readings of wind can usually be multiplied x2 for an "out on the lake" estimate, at least when winds blow from the NW like they are today. They have to come across a good portion of the island before they reach my instruments, meanwhile I look out beyond the protected shoreline zone (extends out about 100 feet) and see clouds of snow tearing along at about the same speeds as sport fishing boats on a calm summer dawn.

moose tracks

02-20-2007, 03:59 PM

Great Idea!
I check the Weirs Beach Weather web site almost every day. I like to track the weather conditions in the lakes region. Now I can check your thread also! Thanks,

CanisLupusArctos

02-26-2007, 01:19 PM

After five weeks of temps far below normal preceded by five weeks of temps far above normal, the Lakes Region is finally having normal wintertime temperatures.

The island reached a stunningly warm 38 degrees yesterday with almost 100% of possible sunshine... clouds from today's national-headline storm began to move in late in the day.

No snow has fallen here, though snow advisories remain in effect for Cape Cod. With such strong sunshine (the spring equinox is just over 3 weeks away) the snowpack from the Valentine's Day storm is taking quite a hit each day. The snow atop the lake ice has become wind-packed by recent winds over 40 mph, and is now almost ice itself. As a result it will last longer than the fluffy stuff on shore.

Will one snowstorm be it for the 2007 season? Not if Friday predictions hold true. The models are showing a storm coming out of the Rockies and moving to the Great Lakes, a track that would normally spell rain for New England and early death for the great ski conditions we had to wait so long for this year... but the storm is expected to transfer its energy to a new center off the coast. The counterclockwise flow around the new storm would suck down some more cold air and overtake the southerly component of the counterclockwise flow around its parent system to our west. This would result in snow for most of the area, though there will be warm air available just to the south, so mixed precip is possible too. Stay tuned.

Lake Winnipesaukee at 1 p.m. EST - Broken clouds, 31 F.

Godthaab, Greenland at 6 a.m. EST - Moderate rain, 37 F.

**Early reminder to set clocks AHEAD on Sunday, March 11. The new Federal energy bill goes into effect this year with early Daylight Saving Time... lasting into early November instead of late October. The energy bill was passed in 2005 and aims to reduce power consumption during the evening hours, when most power is typically used. Late sunsets tend to keep more people outside, allowing many household power-consuming appliances to take a break. On the flip-side, it will become harder to get up for work if you're someone who needs sunlight to get going in the morning. This has the potential to have health effects as well, since 7 pm sunsets in March may lure many outside for regular exercise they might not otherwise pursue until later in the spring. I wonder how our ski areas may react to the new daylight schedule. Will they open later in the morning since ski patrols need a chance to check the trails for hazards (in daylight) first? Will they stay open until an hour or so before sunset (which would be 6 pm) like they usually do?

Gatto Nero

02-26-2007, 01:34 PM

Welcome back CLA, I've missed your reports over the past week. You certainly are correct about the recent winds. I have no way to measure the wind speed but it was nuts on my side of the island this weekend. I don't think the wind ever stopped from Thursday night through Saturday night. I now have a 6' snow drift in front of my place on the south side of a peninsula. The wind carries the snow over the peninsula and drops it just on the other side. I made the mistake of leaving the sled on the ice overnight on Friday. By Saturday morning it wouldn't start so I opened the hood and found the entire engine compartment hard packed with snow. It even got through the air filter and into the air box.

CanisLupusArctos

02-26-2007, 08:12 PM

Ah yes, the winds on your side of the island would be great to measure! I measured a peak of 33 mph from the NW. The previous day was 31 mph, also NW. Winds from that direction have to come over a quarter-mile of island space (trees, etc.) before reaching my sensors, so I would guess that adding 10 mph would be accurate.

My readings were in the ballbark of Laconia's, but the airfield offers a lot more friction to wind than our water/ice does (hence the reason hurricanes lose windspeed when over land.) The most accurate way to measure might've been to use a radar gun on the blowing snow out on the lake. It looked like it was doing 40-50.

To see daily records that are automatically updated by the weather station, go to http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/noaamo.txt

That's interesting how the wind packed snow into your sled's openings. I haven't seen that kind of drifting behavior in too many other places other than Mount Washington where I've volunteered a few times in winter. The slightest little draft in a window or a door up there allows snow to come through and form a drift on the inside. It also beats the summit's snowpack into a hard, dense, "wind-pack" that looks rippled and swirly like whipped cream when you take the cover off for the first time. We're seeing that on the lake this year.

Mmmmmm, whipped cream... donuts... D'oH!

Rose

02-26-2007, 08:47 PM

Will one snowstorm be it for the 2007 season? Not if Friday predictions hold true. The models are showing a storm coming out of the Rockies and moving to the Great Lakes, a track that would normally spell rain for New England and early death for the great ski conditions we had to wait so long for this year... but the storm is expected to transfer its energy to a new center off the coast. The counterclockwise flow around the new storm would suck down some more cold air and overtake the southerly component of the counterclockwise flow around its parent system to our west. This would result in snow for most of the area, though there will be warm air available just to the south, so mixed precip is possible too. Stay tuned.

Oh for the days when we got snowstorms that were all snow. I just took a peek at the 12 UTC (0700 EST) run of the medium/long-range Canadian model. The redevelopment occurs inland (central PA) and the warm air makes it north of the US/Canadian border...mostly rain after a start of wet, sloppy snow. The US medium/long-range model shows the low developing on the Jersey coast, running over southeastern Mass to the coast of Maine. This would bring conditions similar to the Valentine's Day storm.

Stay tuned. I should be bald by the end of the winter. :eek: I'm glad I don't forecast for a living.

Resident 2B

02-26-2007, 09:44 PM

After looking at the models, I agree completely with Rose.

We look to be on the warm side of the first significant low. There are hints at a second low either redeveloping off the coast or following behind the first low that could pass near the benchmark. If so, that will pull in some cold air and be more white than wet either at the end of the first storm or later in the weekend. Still need to see some more model runs to verify this. :confused:

As with all forecasts, time will tell. This is (or these are) still several days away.

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-26-2007, 11:03 PM

Just curious, where are you looking at the non-US models? I'd like to include a link in my model links page (and have a look at them.)

Here's tonight's discussion out of Gray:

WED NIGHT AND THU WILL FEATURE WEAK
RIDGING...AND GENERALLY DRY WX...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES THU NIGHT...AS 500 MB CLOSE LOW CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...ANS STRONG MID-LVL WAA DEVELOPS...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
GIVE ME/NH A SHOT OF SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MANY QUESTIONS REGARDING DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF COASTAL LOW STILL REMAIN...FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A MIX NEAR THE COAST....AND ALL SN ELSEWHERE. ONCE SYSTEM PASSES...LOOKS LIKE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND.

Resident 2B

02-27-2007, 12:04 AM

CLA,

I see them on the Accuweather Professional site. There is a subscription fee involved, so I do not think you can link to them.

R2B

Rose

02-27-2007, 07:50 AM

I like Penn States e-wall (oh, for the days of ripping weather maps and hanging them on the wall):

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

If there are issues with the e-wall site, then I go directly to the Canadians:

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

Resident 2B

02-27-2007, 11:41 AM

Rose,

Two great weather sites!

Best Regards,

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-27-2007, 03:51 PM

Rose and R2B, thanks for the great links to the model sites. I'll check those out. Now if I could find a model of the 2-footed variety... :D

In the meantime, I just feasted my eyes on this:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A POWERFUL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
MORNING...AND MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS
COMBINATION OF STORMS COULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL WORK IN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
TO CHANGE THE SNOW TO SLEET OR RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
STILL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER OCCURS. FURTHER INLAND...WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS SNOW...HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO
TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAY FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.
$$

Where's SteveA? Might be good to give his Persian cat an early heads-up! Run, Yuki, run! Go behind the couch, Yuki!

Resident 2B

02-28-2007, 02:00 PM

With the storm coming on Thursday night and Friday, there will be a significant snowfall in the ski areas north of the lake. We are on the line of where mixing will occur and that line is too difficult to pin point right now. There is over an ince of liquid with this storm and with a mix ration of 12:1 an ince of liquid equals a foot of snow.

I am sure the mountains will have the 12:1 or maybe 15:1 ratio, but I think it might avarage closer to 10:1 or a bit less around the lakes. There just is not enough real cold air around to push the ratio up.

It will start as snow, and it will snow fairly hard Thursday night. Any mixing will be in the Friday morning time frame with colder temps changing any mix back to snow and increasing the snow to liquid ratio at the end of the storm.

Bottom line is winter is still here and it looks like our friend the groundhog was wrong this year.

This is the last day for the Ice Out Contest. Think hard before submitting your guess. Many variables to consider.

What a great time of the year! Enjoy!

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

02-28-2007, 03:24 PM

Winter Storm Watch just issued by National Weather Service-Gray ME for Thursday night through Friday night. From public and NWS forecasts/discussions it appears the all-snow/some-mix line will run through the lakes region. I'm about to take a look at the models.

One thing is for sure at this point- with March upon us, snow isn't sticking around very long on the ground. The sun sure is strong. I don't even need house heat during the day - thermostats off, fire is dead, room is still warm with sun shining in.

More to come....

CLA

CanisLupusArctos

02-28-2007, 06:40 PM

A foot of heavy wet snow is possible Thursday night and most of the day on Friday.

Discussion: The storm heading for us is currently sucking vast amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, causing a severe weather outbreak in the southern plains. It will move to the Great Lakes tomorrow and will touch off a new storm near the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow PM.

Model consensus develops the storm around Cape May NJ and takes it between Falmouth and Chatham MA Friday afternoon, then into the Gulf of Maine and on to Nova Scotia by Friday night and Saturday morning. There isn't as much cold air over NH as there was with the Valentines Blizzard but the dominant southerly wind direction we've had at the lake for the last 2 days shifted into the NW around noontime and has been steady 5-15 mph ever since. As a result we were a couple degrees cooler than yesterday's high of 40 F. There is just enough cold air at the surface and available to the northwest of here to support snow for the first several hours of the event before the upper level low to our west brings in warm air aloft... resulting in sleet and freezing rain during the very late morning/early afternoon hours of Friday. As the coastal storm gains strength and moves to the northeast of us on Friday afternoon, cold air will return and change the precip back to snow for 3-4 hours before it ends as snow showers through the night.

As is always the case in New England, the track of the storm is critical and a shift of 50 miles farther inland or out to sea will have a dramatic effect on this forecast in the lakes region.

Looks like around a foot... perhaps as much as 15 inches of snow in the northwestern part of the lakes region and foothills of the White Mountains. Amounts will depend on how much mixing takes place. In any case, the snow will not be the light and fluffy kind we saw on Feb. 14... but the sticky kind known for breaking tree limbs and bringing down power lines. DPW crews can also expect trouble with this kind of snow as it often causes equipment breakdowns. Any mix of sleet or freezing rain will make the snow even more likely to be damaging. With more water content also comes more slippery roads. Anyone traveling to the lakes region on Friday should consider making the trip Thursday instead, or waiting until late Friday night when plow crews have had a chance to clean up. Some secondary roads may remain messy into Saturday morning if crews experience equipment breakdowns or where downed tree limbs or power lines prevent plowing.

Tonight: Clear. Low around 15. Wind NW at 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow: Clear with high clouds moving in from the SW late in the day. High 30-35. Calm wind in the morning becoming east at 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Cloudy with light snow possible west of Plymouth after 10 pm... after midnight to the east. Snow becoming heavy at times with 4-6 inches by morning. Low near 25.

Friday: Snow, heavy at times. Mixing with sleet and freezing rain after 10 am near Alton and after noontime near Plymouth. Changing back to all snow after 4 pm in Plymouth and after 6 pm in Alton. Additional accumulation 5 to 7 inches. Wind shifting to SE after noontime and into the NE by late afternoon.

Friday Night: Light snow tapering off to snow showers after 8 pm. Wind becoming NW at 10-15 mph. Total snow accumulation 11 to 16 inches with the higher amounts near Plymouth and lower amounts near Alton.

CLA

SteveA

03-01-2007, 08:41 AM

Where's SteveA? Might be good to give his Persian cat an early heads-up! Run, Yuki, run! Go behind the couch, Yuki!

CL

Fear not.. Yuki pays close attention.. and has all his hiding spots picked out.:laugh:

1230 1231

Resident 2B

03-01-2007, 01:34 PM

Just checked the latest models and conditions and things look a bit colder than they did yesterday, so mixing in the lakes region is now only a slight possibility. The storm is also a bit wetter than I thought yesterday, so with it a bit colder and a bit wetter, the snow will be deeper.

I expect 18" in Laconia, with a bit more in the mountains by Saturday morning. This is based upon a liquid estimate of 1.3" with a mix ratio of 15:1 for Laconia. The mountains could see more than 2' with lifting and a higher ratio enhancing the snowfall. Steve A, this will be too much for Yuki!

This looks like the biggest storm in the last two years for the area, based upon with I am seeing right now.

This is likely to keep the rather think ice in place longer into the spring. The snow reflects a lot of the sun's heat, and as CLA points out, the sun is getting much stronger. Considering everything, I expect a late April ice out.

Time will tell!

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

03-01-2007, 01:48 PM

R2B is in the ballpark with what the public forecasts are now saying. I haven't had time for more than a quick look at the models this morning but I did see that they were trending colder with more snow/less mix. That definitely would be too much for Yuki but that's why we have the Yuki scale!

What's INCREDIBLE is how much water and wind this storm is dropping all over the country. It's already one of the top stories on MSNBC News. Also I haven't seen the SPC (storm prediction center - www.spc.noaa.gov) issue such a large "HIGH RISK" area in a LOnnnnnng time - but they're doing it now across the south. For those who don't know, a "slight risk" generates the spotty severe weather we usually get here in New Hampshire. A "moderate risk" generates a round of tornadoes that makes the national nightly news headlines. A "High risk" scenario is something that meteorology grad students write their thesis on, several years from now.

If you know anyone living down in the high-risk area, it's a good time to give them a call.

Here, have a look....

The large blue box is a severe thunderstorm watch, and the red boxes are tornado watches. Red and blue dots are reports already received of tornadoes (red) and severe thunderstorms (blue). The other warnings are listed on the map, by county.

Rose

03-01-2007, 10:23 PM

My gut is telling me there's going to be too much warm air with this storm to garner huge snowfall totals. Not that this will be a minor storm, but I think 8-12" will cover most of the Lakes Region.

If I'm wrong, I'll blame that feeling in my gut on the enchiladas and margarita grande that I had for lunch at the Border Cafe. :D

Blue Thunder

03-02-2007, 05:35 AM

moose tracks

03-02-2007, 08:38 AM

Looking at the web cams, looks about 6" of snow on the ground. Any actual snow fall reports this morning?

CanisLupusArctos

03-02-2007, 01:12 PM

It's hard to tell how much snow has actually fallen. On Black Cat it's been snowing heavily since about 2:30 this morning but there's barely any on the porch or in the yard.

This is due to the wind that has been increasing out of the east all morning, and is now averaging 22 from the ESE, gusting to 31. Some parts of the yard are blown clear, down to bare earth, while a 2-foot snowdrift lies adjacent. Needless to say the snow is getting abnormally deep wherever it can get out of the wind.

The melted precip for this morning is a scant 0.13 inches. I need to check that for validity because I've been having problems with my rain gauge heater and may need to install a better one. An inspection of the guage will tell me if it's a problem with the heater or if the wind is preventing the snow from resting in the gauge.

It's a much more powerful storm than what hit on Feb. 14 at this location. There is a much steadier wind. That storm produced a very gusty wind with many lulls and one peak at 39 mph... but this one has been a steady wind that's already hit 30+ several times... peaking at 33.

Color-coded radar and surface observations both confirm rain south of Concord. In the last hour heavy sleet has been hitting the east windows here, but at 1 pm there is still plenty of snow coming down. It is blowing and drifting heavily and creating a havoc on the roads.

At last check Belmont was the only town in the Lakes Region above freezing... and the NHDOT stations along I-93 are showing temps actually warmer in Woodstock than in Ashland.

The reason the snow held on as long as it did in the Lakes Region was most likely evaporative cooling... for several hours last night there was snow aloft and the weak moonlight showed it, but there was none in the floodlights down at this level. A Medical helicopter flew over at an extremely low altitude (about 500 feet AGL, 1000 feet alt.) around midnight, serving as an indicator of the level the snow was reaching since they usually fly only when or where they can see. For several hours the snow was evaporating into the air, cooling it the same way your skin feels chilly when water is evaporating off of it. When the air finally became saturated with humidity around 2:30 am, it stopped accepting any more evaporation and the snow was able to reach the ground... but the temperature had fallen well into the 20s.

Still a few more hours left on this storm.

Here's a weather demo you can do in a storm like this: Find a bottle with a screw-cap that becomes air-tight. (Empty Coke bottle should work fine.) Wait for the barometer to bottom out, (or sometime this afternoon) and close it up. Wait for the barometer to rise back up again (tomorrow, or better yet Tuesday when we'll see some arctic high pressure come back in here) and it should hiss when you open it.

CLA

SteveA

03-03-2007, 08:44 AM

We ended up with about 16" of new snow. Lot of drifting. Total on the ground now is just about 24"'.

1234

The garden is now patiently waiting for the March Sun to go to work on Mother Natures latest masterpiece.

1235

moose tracks

03-03-2007, 02:32 PM

Great shots of the new snow! Thanks.

Resident 2B

03-05-2007, 11:13 AM

Wow! It is going to get COLD! VERY COLD for this time of the year.

This week will feel more like mid-winter than most, if not all, weeks in January. Low temps should get down below zero two or three nights in a row starting Tuesday night, with wind chills tonight in the -20 or lower range. Big winds starting late this afternoon and continuing for a few days that could impact safety out at the bob houses. :eek:

Warm-up for Friday, which will be very welcomed. Not sure how long it will last. No big storms in sight.

Even though we are now well into March, with the strong sun that comes with March, I believe the ice will build this week, not melt. This could be setting us up for a very late Ice-Out. :(

Stay Warm!!

R2B

fatlazyless

03-06-2007, 09:50 AM

Ten below with blustery gusts, here in Waterville Valley, and the Varney Point Cam says four below. Pretty cold for 9:45am. Got to be cold on that chairlift, today.

No matter what the weather, there's always the Weather Channel!

mg2107

03-06-2007, 11:00 AM

Guess March is pay back month.

CanisLupusArctos

03-06-2007, 01:17 PM

Hard to believe this is March.

This morning Black Cat Island has recorded its lowest temp of the winter season to date, -7 F. This beats January 26 which had a low of -5. Today, like January 26, has featured temps remaining below zero during daylight hours. At 1 p.m. the temperature is hovering around -1. On January 26 we topped out at just 4 degrees above zero and it does not look like this afternoon will be even that warm. However, our high for the day has already been established at midnight, at +8.

This afternoon's wind, averaging 10 mph and gusting to 18, is creating a chill factor of -17 for any exposed skin. This morning saw the day's peak gust of 49 mph at 6:22 a.m.

I agree with R2B - The ice will be thickening this week. Its new snowpack, which slushified in the weekend's temps, has now re-frozen and will be much slower to melt when it the weather warms up again. It continues to reflect the sun's light rather than absorb it. Last week I took a flight with Dave Emerson who also speculated on a later-than-average iceout this year, but added that the sun needs only a small portion of bare ice to weaken, or exposed rocks to heat, and the wind will rip that hole bigger with time.

Here are a few images from the flight, from The Broads/Rattlesnake, one of Wolfeboro, and another of Center Harbor down to 3-Mile. They were taken Thursday, as the snowstorm was moving in. The ice is a lot whiter now. The only water we saw was around people's dock circulators.

CLA

DRH

03-06-2007, 03:17 PM

It was -7 degs here at 7:30 this morning and the highest temp. we've reached today is 0 degs, which has held steady now for most of the afternoon.

But the wind is the other story. We're getting sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, with frequent gusts from the mid-40s to 50 mph. The strongest wind gust our weather station has recorded today is 51 mph, and that speed has been reached 5 times so far this afternoon. Our location has direct northwest exposure over the frozen lake, so there's nothing to slow down the wind before it hits our house.

According to the National Weather Service's wind chill chart, at 0 degs F with sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, the wind chill is averaging around -27 degs!

Not a good day to be outside. :eek::eek::eek:

Resident 2B

03-06-2007, 04:52 PM

This is amazing weather!

I know the wind has a painful bite, but weather extremes are noteworthy. This is great weather for those of us who like extremes!

The cold and the wind is what we all are aware of. However, the most interesting measure of this air mass to me is the very low, and lowering, dew point. From what I have seen, we are at -24 degrees F and still going down. Very dry for this time of the year. For those photographers out there, this is the time for those very long, crystal clear telephoto shots.

Things look to warm up nicely on Frday and the warmer weather looks to hold for a while. Still not sure if this is winter's last gasp. There might be another dip in tempature starting the 16th or so, but this is not something that is definate.

I need to inform the marina as to when to get the bottom of the boat wet this spring. I usually like to get in early and try to catch salmon, but it looks more and more like a late ice out. Although I like winter, I do not see this as good news.

Stay warm! :fire:

R2B

CanisLupusArctos

03-06-2007, 11:10 PM

R2B - good point. This afternoon when I saw the dewpoint of -25 I checked the Mojave Desert weather stations, namely Twentynine Palms CA and Needles CA - both were reporting dewpoints of 7 and 8 degrees. Thier dewpoints are higher than our temperature has been all day. We're drier than the Mojave today!

Motto of the day is "Fun with static electricity!"

UPDATE at 11:00 a.m. Wednesday: Minus 8 F is the new low for the winter season, this morning. Temps are rebounding back to 5 above, and climbing. Winds are relaxing back to 15 mph and under... but we have more coming up for later tonight and tomorrow. Looks like after 1 more day of arctic cold we see a major pattern change. High pressure moves off the coast becoming a "Bermuda high" for the weekend... and then the upper level wind flow becomes more zonal (straight west to east) across the northern states.

trfour

03-08-2007, 09:37 AM

Although it was cold at the Lake tuesday...

WHITEFIELD, N.H. -- While cold weather was felt across the state Wednesday, the coldest place in the state was the town of Whitefield.
Temperatures dropped to 33 degrees below zero Tuesday, the coldest the town has seen since January 2004.
"It's cold," said Sue Blackwell, of Franconia. "But no, I don't mind it."
Daytime temperatures did rebound somewhat from the overnight low, but it was still too cold to let children play outside at Whitefield Elementary School.
"We kind of changed the way we bring kids in in the morning and let them out at night," Principal Ellen Turcotte said. "We make sure their coats are zipped and hats and mittens are on, and the buses pull up right to the school."
Even inside the school, teachers and students assigned to the Literacy Intervention Center used blankets, boots and scarves to keep warm from the cold coming in from the windows.
"This is a very cold spot," teacher Cate Diblasi said. "My fellow teachers and I stay warm in our blankets."
The cold weather was expected to continue Thursday, with highs in the mid-teens. But milder weather is in the forecast for the weekend. :eek:

CanisLupusArctos

03-08-2007, 02:59 PM

Going by today's temp/dewpoint/pressure/wind graphs, it appears the latest arctic front passed Black Cat around 8:00 this morning. Just a trace of snow fell from the snow squall. Prior to the frontal passage temps reached their lowest level of the winter once again, this time bottoming out at -9. While the air warmed a bit during the actual frontal passage, the cold air behind it is now working its way in. The dewpoint is once again retreating back to the -20 level. Winds have picked up quickly during the morning hours and gusts are nearing the 40 mph mark for the second time this week.

Looks like a pattern change this weekend. Since late January the upper level winds have put us in the path of air coming right down from the Yukon and James Bay Canada. Beginning Saturday, just in time for the new (early) Daylight Saving Time, it looks like the pattern will become more zonal (straight west to east) across the northernmost US States. That usually favors normal temps or even slightly above normal... and any storms on that track are usually moisture-starved and hauling right along.

With the 90+ air beginning to show itself in the SW desert and the arctic cold still nearby, it could make for some interesting battles in the month ahead.

CLA