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Winilyme
04-30-2020, 11:09 PM
I've been wondering about the long term prospects of the housing industry in light of COVID. I think that one scenario is an upswing in relocations from urban areas to suburban or rural areas. Consider that for many years there's been a flight to urban centers as young and older folks alike were looking for the lifestyle choices afforded by larger metropolitan areas. In sleepy Hartford, CT of all places - which I'm quite familiar with - a lot of new apartment construction and many new renovations to turn older buildings into desirable apartments have occurred over the last twenty years. All in the name of suburban flight to the city. I'm also familiar with NYC where this trend has gone to the extreme where many previously affordable neighborhoods have been gentrified at the expense of lower income residents. Countless other cities have experienced similar trends.

But with COVID, I'm thinking that (maybe lots of) folks are suddenly having second thoughts about living in such close quarters with one another. Restaurants and outdoor spaces filled cheek by jowl with people suddenly doesn't seem so inviting. There will be a temptation to retreat. They are seeing, and liking, blue skies that are no longer filled with smog. They're experiencing that they can in many cases work from almost anywhere. They are considering the record low mortgage rates and the fact that with COVID-gutted savings, they're likely to find affordability anywhere but in the city. Also on their minds - the suggestion by some experts that we'll see a resurgence of this virus at least in the near term. If you are remotely interested in getting out of a city, wouldn't now be the time? If you want to relocate somewhere special, wouldn't the Lakes Region be the place?

As a result of all of this, will we see an increase in new housing starts and existing house sales as the flight into cities reverses? Could this result in an increase of real estate values that are already high? Will folks in Boston decide to live here full time? Will a demand for new housing result in less affordable options and will new housing developments encroach on the natural resources that make this area so desirable? All are questions I don't have the answer to but as I've said in at least one previous post, the new normal is not going to be the same as the old.

WinnisquamZ
05-01-2020, 07:06 AM
Jobs. Most will live where they believe is the best opportunity to chase employment they desire Others who enjoy ďspaceĒ will find employment if and when necessary. No, I see little change


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Paugus Bay Resident
05-01-2020, 07:28 AM
I've been a "remote worker" for a long time, so have had the freedom to work anywhere I want, as long as I have an airport somewhat close by. I'm in the technology space and most all of our implementation projects have successfully moved from on-site to remote delivery (not without a few hiccups).

I think the remote work trend will continue, and likely expand and some companies will seriously look at the need for physical office space.

If that continues, I think it's entirely possible. Probably not in great numbers, but not a stretch to think there could be some increase.

tis
05-01-2020, 07:41 AM
Interesting thought Winilyme. I was talking to a realtor who said lower priced houses are selling like crazy as people are moving out of the cities. I wonder if anybody else had heard this.

I do also think commercial buildings will be hurt at least some because more people will work at home.

Kerk
05-01-2020, 09:11 AM
As my dad tole me years ago . NO one pays you to get to work or buys the car pays for the gas -upkeep etc. and your traveling time so live close to where you work. Worked for me. !5 minutes usually! JMHO kx

DesertDweller
05-01-2020, 04:50 PM
Interesting thought Winilyme. I was talking to a realtor who said lower priced houses are selling like crazy as people are moving out of the cities. I wonder if anybody else had heard this.

Have a realtor friend who said the exact same thing.

Rinkerguy
05-01-2020, 08:35 PM
I actually managed to buy a new home and sell my existing home during this COVID19 crisis. Got a good price for our home, and a fair price on the new one. spring Real Estate market for homes priced properly is hot. High end homes are very hard to sell.

TheProfessor
05-01-2020, 09:10 PM
As a result of all of this, will we see an increase in new housing starts and existing house sales as the flight into cities reverses? Could this result in an increase of real estate values that are already high?

Not much.

Peoples savings have dried up. Costs a small fortune even to build a modest house. Zoning gets more and more restrictive every year. Do people actually read and comprehend what they are voting on?

Affordable housing or now renamed workforce housing. No. Not here. More kids in our schools? Some say.

Interesting thought Winilyme. I was talking to a realtor who said lower priced houses are selling like crazy as people are moving out of the cities.

Lower priced housing always sells no matter what. There really is not much lower priced housing. What if any appears goes quickly if it is livable. In the rural towns anyway.

Recession or depression. Some say. Might be foreclosures coming up. In time. For the bottom feeders.

WinnisquamZ
05-01-2020, 09:18 PM
A great opportunity to create more over 55 housing. It gives current older home owners the ability to stay in the area and frees up existing housing stock for younger buyers. A win win


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map
05-02-2020, 06:24 AM
When 9/11 happened people from NYC and immediate areas flocked to the rural areas where we used to live-Orange, Sullivan, Ulster counties. They bought big and small,. old and new houses as their money went a lot further in that regard.

A few years later we saw For Sale signs everywhere on those houses as people began to realize the commute was not that easy after all. Not to mention the crash that came years afterwards that affected peoples wallets.

SailinAway
05-09-2020, 05:39 PM
There are a lot of factors at play here. I do agree that people are going to be more fearful of urban areas as multiple pandemics have been forecast for a long time now---but now people have a taste of what it really feels like to be trapped in a city during a pandemic. I have several acquaintances in New York and it has been a nightmare of fear and chaos for them. A friend died in March because he was in a city and couldn't get proper medical care.

Another consideration is the availability of oil and the price of gasoline, which would make me want to stay within 30 to 60 minutes of a good-sized town or city for needed goods and services. If gas is $10 a gallon I don't want to be driving 40 miles for groceries.

Third, older people want to be within an easy drive of medical facilities. These things keep us tied to cities, or at least small cities.

For me personally, the current crisis has brought a halt to my plans to move, so in the short term I think there will be a slowdown in relocations, especially to other states.

Next, the pandemic raises once again the urgent question that was discussed all too briefly during the 2008 recession: when are we going to stop building trophy homes that people don't need and can't afford as soon as they lose their income and investments, and start building more small, affordable energy-efficient homes? When are we going to scale down our mistaken idea of what we "need" and give up greed as the main motivator of the housing market?

Finally, can we transition to a home-sharing society, which is very common in other parts of the world and seen as desirable, not a letdown in quality of life?

The pandemic is an opportunity to rethink these questions. If we survive another 50 years, I think there will be substantial change in how we view housing.

Hillcountry
05-09-2020, 06:09 PM
There are a lot of factors at play here. I do agree that people are going to be more fearful of urban areas as multiple pandemics have been forecast for a long time now---but now people have a taste of what it really feels like to be trapped in a city during a pandemic. I have several acquaintances in New York and it has been a nightmare of fear and chaos for them. A friend died in March because he was in a city and couldn't get proper medical care.

Another consideration is the availability of oil and the price of gasoline, which would make me want to stay within 30 to 60 minutes of a good-sized town or city for needed goods and services. If gas is $10 a gallon I don't want to be driving 40 miles for groceries.

Third, older people want to be within an easy drive of medical facilities. These things keep us tied to cities, or at least small cities.

For me personally, the current crisis has brought a halt to my plans to move, so in the short term I think there will be a slowdown in relocations, especially to other states.

Next, the pandemic raises once again the urgent question that was discussed all too briefly during the 2008 recession: when are we going to stop building trophy homes that people don't need and can't afford as soon as they lose their income and investments, and start building more small, affordable energy-efficient homes? When are we going to scale down our mistaken idea of what we "need" and give up greed as the main motivator of the housing market?

Finally, can we transition to a home-sharing society, which is very common in other parts of the world and seen as desirable, not a letdown in quality of life?

The pandemic is an opportunity to rethink these questions. If we survive another 50 years, I think there will be substantial change in how we view housing.

Itís called assisted living check it out...

SailinAway
05-09-2020, 06:56 PM
Itís called assisted living check it out...

What I'm referring to is called cooperative living. Entirely different, often involves co-ownership.

Paugus Bay Resident
05-09-2020, 07:51 PM
Friday's LaDaSun (thanks FLL for the acronym) had an article about waterfront RE and said it and more moderately priced housing in the Lakes Region was solid.

As far as "cooperative living" I grew up in the time when communes were popular, that trend didn't last long :)

gillygirl
05-10-2020, 09:21 AM
Itís called assisted living check it out...



Where youíre more likely to get Covid-19. No thanks. Thank God mom didnít pull the trigger on moving into one. At 91 with COPD, CHF, and cancer, she wouldnít survive.


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WinnisquamZ
05-10-2020, 09:32 AM
Believe a over 55 community of single level independent units. Managed by an association would thrive here in the lakes region. Yes, similar to communities in Florida. Just managed a bit different due to the seasons


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Hillcountry
05-10-2020, 10:20 AM
What I'm referring to is called cooperative living. Entirely different, often involves co-ownership.

No thanks...your ideas sound too much like socialism to me but by all means go for it!

SailinAway
05-10-2020, 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SailinAway View Post
What I'm referring to is called cooperative living. Entirely different, often involves co-ownership.

No thanks...your ideas sound too much like socialism to me but by all means go for it!

Where do you see socialism? Cooperative housing is owned by the residents, not the government. I'd much rather do that than live in an expensive assisted living facility. Example: http://mainecohousing.org/ The thing about 100% independence is that it runs out someday for most people: you get old, your income dwindles, your spouse dies, your children move away, you get sick. Then what? Cohousing is an alternative for some people. I'd like to see more of it in New Hampshire.

FlyingScot
05-10-2020, 02:13 PM
It's not my scene, but I've had an uncle and 2 aunts who have really enjoyed Brooksby Village in Mass. It's kind of like a big college dorm for old people.

https://www.ericksonliving.com/brooksby-village

JEEPONLY
05-10-2020, 02:36 PM
What I'm referring to is called cooperative living. Entirely different, often involves co-ownership.

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"

SailinAway
05-10-2020, 03:34 PM
It's not my scene, but I've had an uncle and 2 aunts who have really enjoyed Brooksby Village in Mass. It's kind of like a big college dorm for old people.

https://www.ericksonliving.com/brooksby-village

Maybe "affluent" old people? For a housing revolution, which we clearly need, there's a need for self-contained multi-generational communities for people of varying incomes.

WinnisquamZ
05-10-2020, 04:41 PM
Across the country, over 55 communities work. They bring in more taxes dollars then being used. One drawback for each city and town is it adds a voting block. If you are trying to add a school or increase recreational space for youth sports very really will they vote for it. With that said, Laconia is a ideal location.


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TheProfessor
05-10-2020, 06:01 PM
Across the country, over 55 communities work. They bring in more taxes dollars then being used. One drawback for each city and town is it adds a voting block. If you are trying to add a school or increase recreational space for youth sports very really will they vote for it. With that said, Laconia is a ideal location.
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Just a novice in this area. Some of these developments get federal/state funding (or in the past).

Some though are privately financed.

It's the towns restrictive zoning that stops most of these except in larger cities.

But now back to the free testing. I signed up online. And yes, one can get tested one day and 5 minutes later get infected.

Also going to sign up for the ClearChoiceMD - if possible.

gravy boat
05-10-2020, 07:12 PM
Personally I would decline testing for the virus unless I had most of the symptoms or I was exposed to someone suspected or known to carry/tested positive. I would be curious if I have the antibodies.... but as you said, you could be negative today and positive in a few days. I'd rather not waste the test.