PDA

View Full Version : Covid-19 Poll of the Lakes Region


Lakegeezer
03-14-2020, 08:20 AM
With little official information about the local presence of the pandemic, here's a poll to get a sense of what's going on.

pjard
03-14-2020, 04:41 PM
If folks are honest with this poll, this could be interesting. No media twists, no editorial spin, just pure data. I'm watching this one for sure. Great post!

ApS
03-15-2020, 07:24 AM
Here, CDC gives background of the disastrous 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and how it got around a world lacking jet travel.

How an aging Swedish physician got us started with flu vaccines. (Not too much science-talk):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

geordie
03-15-2020, 11:41 PM
It's early days, but COVID-19 has been showing a 15% daily growth rate. That means 100 fold increase each 33 days. 10,000 in 66 days. So unless we can slow it down that's 3,000,000 US cases with 100,000 to 200,000 dead depending on whether we get the global average mortality, or Italy (6.8% dead, 9% critical, 250 died on Thursday, nearly 400 today). So what are you looking for with this post? It reminds me of standing at the fire watcher station in Mesa Verde in July 2000. The ranger was running around and looked worried. But there was nothing in particular to see. Not that I saw. Maybe a wisp of smoke. Twenty minutes later we were fleeing the park and it burned to the ground behind us.

Andromeda321
03-17-2020, 12:52 PM
I think this poll is frankly not very useful when we all know that testing is in no way available for the number of people who want to be tested.

jeffk
03-17-2020, 05:22 PM
Can I change my vote? I now know someone who has TESTED positive.

Lakegeezer
03-17-2020, 08:53 PM
Can I change my vote? I now know someone who has TESTED positive.Sorry Jeffk. I don't think there is a way to change your vote. I realized that shortly after the poll went up. Perhaps we should start a new one at the beginning of each week and watch how it changes.

ApS
03-17-2020, 10:26 PM
I think this poll is frankly not very useful when we all know that testing is in no way available for the number of people who want to be tested.
By mid-summer, that red bar will slow down.

Even at the newly-opened "drive-throughs", applicants will be screened to determine if the test is necessary. Symptoms would have to be apparent. A doctor's prescription would be best. As in Ebola determinations (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14787210.2016.1176912?scroll=top&needAccess=true&), it is at this early stage that errors can be introduced.

Like the CDC test for the Ebola disease, the CDC's Covid-19 tests are not 100% accurate. A faster, better, test was approved by the FDA only this week. A private firm, who pioneered in this form of testing, Roche can supply 400,000 tests (https://fortune.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-test-roche-covid-19/), producing them within 24 hours.

As for "flattening the curve", isolation will extend the exposure period into September :eek2: but reduce the fatal aspects of Covid-19 on those aged into their 70s. (Blue line >70s).

ApS
03-23-2020, 08:49 PM
Sorry Jeffk. I don't think there is a way to change your vote. I realized that shortly after the poll went up. Perhaps we should start a new one at the beginning of each week and watch how it changes.
Good idea. ;)

Today, a retired Army doctor has put forth his dispassionate opinion of how COVID-19 will proceed. Since he's addressed other questioners, I've shortened his response for clarity:

"The new deaths will continue to increase until the impact of our isolation program kicks in. We will see the number of new deaths start to increase then.. think of it as a supply chain.

"[T]hink of it as a roller coaster train going up a hill. The new infected are in the front car, the mild in the next, the seriously ill in the next, and the dying in the last.

"Obviously, the dying are going to be the 'last over the hump'. That will happen next weekend some time and the number of total [US] dead will be around 5,000 which is what I sort of guessed days ago.

"The scary part will be when half of that comes in just 24 to 36 hours. People may panic. Don’t. It’s to be expected".

I think he's got a handle on this "viral" epidemic, and plan to ask for corrections following this weekend. Much depends on how well our citizens have "sheltered-in-place" or should have isolated themselves.

SailinAway
03-28-2020, 09:39 PM
This poll is a bit disconnected from reality. It needs the following additional options:

(X) I know someone who has COVID-19.

( ) I have been diagnosed with COVID-19.

( ) I know someone who died of COVID-19.

(X) I or someone I know couldn't get treatment for another urgent illness due to hospitals overrun with COVID-19 cases.

(X) I know someone who died because they couldn't get treatment for another illness due to COVID-19.

(X) I had to postpone elective surgery due to COVID-19.

I've checked four of the above. COVID-19 has impacted me in other ways. Many of my clients are in New York City and China. A friend in France is at great risk because she needs radiation therapy for stage IV cancer. Another friend is on lockdown in Germany. I thank God I procrastinated about elective surgery because my aftercare would have put me in danger. If you don't feel impacted by COVID-19 you must be living in some kind of really small local bubble, or a mental bubble.

People who are fixated on the low number of cases in New Hampshire aren't seeing the bigger picture of the pandemic. This is surprising, when you look at the big red dot on the virus map at https://www.nytimes.com/ We are on the fringe of the expanding epicenter. The main error of our government has been its failure to act until forced to, and to deny the reality of the crisis. It's the same with people who don't see the need for social distancing and closing businesses in New Hampshire: by the time you realize that yes, YOU are in a pandemic, it will be too late. Same for those who keep comparing COVID-19 to H1N1 etc: by the time you realize that this is very different, it will be too late. The way this poll was phrased reflects denial of the severity of the situation.

Lakegeezer
03-29-2020, 09:13 AM
This poll is a bit disconnected from reality. The way this poll was phrased reflects denial of the severity of the situation.As the author of the poll, I agree. It was created over two weeks ago when there was no testing available and far back the exponential curve. It is unfortunate that people can't change their votes, so that we'd have a current understanding of the local situation. The local hospitals are still not overrun, but are getting prepared to be. Already, people are denied treatment for non Covid19 issues. In a few months, we can have another poll to record local history, rather than the impossible task of reporting the current situation.

JEEPONLY
03-29-2020, 11:03 AM
"Mental bubble"!!!

Best part of your post!

SailinAway
03-29-2020, 01:30 PM
As the author of the poll, I agree. It was created over two weeks ago when there was no testing available and far back the exponential curve. It is unfortunate that people can't change their votes, so that we'd have a current understanding of the local situation. The local hospitals are still not overrun, but are getting prepared to be. Already, people are denied treatment for non Covid19 issues. In a few months, we can have another poll to record local history, rather than the impossible task of reporting the current situation.

Your response shows how rapidly we've gone from "I'm not too perturbed because I'm way up here in New Hampshire" to "COVID-19 has impacted me directly."

ApS
04-01-2020, 06:47 AM
http://7lstv.com/covid19/033120.png

Note BosNYWash concentration.

Guess what? Covid-19 originated in Canada, was stolen, and developed in Wuhan, China. :eek2:

Seaplane Pilot
04-01-2020, 07:11 AM
John’s Hopkins reports almost 200,000 people have recovered from Coronavirus worldwide. To use a favored term of the alarmists: It seems like the recovery rate is “EXPLODING”.

The Real BigGuy
04-01-2020, 08:48 AM
Forbes reported 500 US deaths from COVID-19 on Monday & over 800000 confirmed cases worldwide. Guess all the numbers are “EXPLODING”!


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

thinkxingu
04-01-2020, 09:11 AM
"Nationally, the University of Washington model predicts a peak daily death toll of 2,214 in mid-April, with a total of 84,000 Americans dead by the end of summer. That’s more than twice the lives claimed during the 2018-19 flu season, which killed 34,000 people, according to the latest available data from the CDC."

Today's USA Today article, in which the next two weeks are identified as the potential turning point.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

TheProfessor
04-01-2020, 09:26 AM
I think this poll is frankly not very useful when we all know that testing is in no way available for the number of people who want to be tested.

They should test everyone.

On the tele - stay in car - drive up tests. 15 minute results.

Done.

TheProfessor
04-01-2020, 09:29 AM
Here is link to State of New Hampshire map of cases.

My town has 1-4 cases.

LINK (https://www.nh.gov/covid19/documents/case-map.pdf)

thinkxingu
04-01-2020, 10:10 AM
Here is link to State of New Hampshire map of cases.

My town has 1-4 cases.

LINK (https://www.nh.gov/covid19/documents/case-map.pdf)*Confirmed cases.
I only point that out because the lack of testing is one of the points of contention regarding how we should be treating the situation and moving forward.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

WinnisquamZ
04-01-2020, 10:22 AM
Hate the term “lack of testing” how can one have a test developed and waiting for distribution for a virus that was unknown. A better term might be “limited testing”


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

thinkxingu
04-01-2020, 10:27 AM
Hate the term “lack of testing” how can one have a test developed and waiting for distribution for a virus that was unknown. A better term might be “limited testing”


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)There is a test. They're testing very few people. That is, by definition (the state of being without or not having enough of something), a lack of testing.

Why complicate this with semantics?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

WinnisquamZ
04-01-2020, 10:37 AM
I ask you why one must use such a negative terms when others can be used


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

loonguy
04-01-2020, 10:58 AM
Moultonborough has one to four cases in the latest information, but is in Carroll County, which has 10 cases total and nine towns with one to four cases. Consequently, at most Moultonborough has two cases currently confirmed. Please stay safe to keep the numbers low.

thinkxingu
04-01-2020, 11:19 AM
I ask you why one must use such a negative terms when others can be used


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)Because it's a negative situation—way too few people are being tested.

Again, semantics. What a waste of posts.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

Flylady
04-01-2020, 12:26 PM
The first tests that CDC had and used in January failed as they were not useful in detecting this virus. Very quickly the correct test was developed and went into production. However the tests were are sent to CDC labs which were operating on limited staff as a result of budget cuts in the last two years. Fast forward, contacts for testing given to the two largest labs in the country. Even as more test kits became available there are not enough people or equipment to process all of the tests daily so there grew a backlog with the national labs of more than a week. My point is supply will never meet demand at the front end of this virus. If we are lucky we may seem some improvements by the beginning of May.

lakeporter65
04-01-2020, 03:01 PM
I ask you why one must use such a negative terms when others can be used


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

Because he wants to make it more traumatizing. Watch MSNBC, all they talk about are the Deaths and Negative sides of everything. Same thing here!

FlyingScot
04-01-2020, 03:18 PM
I ask you why one must use such a negative terms when others can be used


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

It's well documented that the CDC botched the rollout of the first test--they insisted on doing it themselves, they pushed only one test to completion with no fallback, then discovered the test did not work, so back to the drawing board. This was followed by the FDA slowing things down again--insisting on emergency procedures (designed to speed things up???) which forbade well respected labs from using their own tests as they normally would.

One should use negative terms when figuring out how to make sure we don't make the same mistakes next time

Pricestavern
04-01-2020, 03:37 PM
I ask you why one must use such a negative terms when others can be used

I am positive that there has been very many people who should have been tested.

Pricestavern
04-02-2020, 08:57 AM
The poll should have also included 'Know someone who had died'

Unfortunately, I can include myself in that category now.

thinkxingu
04-02-2020, 09:24 AM
The poll should have also included 'Know someone who had died'

Unfortunately, I can include myself in that category now.Terribly sorry to hear this, friend—my condolences. I believe we will all ultimately know someone affected by this. I found out yesterday that I know at least 3 people currently struggling with it. None were allowed to get tested.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

ApS
04-03-2020, 10:20 PM
The first tests that CDC had and used in January failed as they were not useful in detecting this virus. Very quickly the correct test was developed and went into production. However the tests were are sent to CDC labs which were operating on limited staff as a result of budget cuts in the last two years. Fast forward, contacts for testing given to the two largest labs in the country. Even as more test kits became available there are not enough people or equipment to process all of the tests daily so there grew a backlog with the national labs of more than a week. My point is supply will never meet demand at the front end of this virus. If we are lucky we may seem some improvements by the beginning of May.
I was just reading that California had a huge reserve of masks and ventilators. The masks had a "no-good-after" date. Although half got used during California wildfires, the rest became date-lapsed. :(

The ventilators were sold on a network of "used-hospital-supplies". :rolleye2:

How many went to China? :rolleye1:

For perusal:

Biggd
04-04-2020, 02:44 PM
As I'm sitting on my desktop here in Waltham I'm watching an ambulance take my neighbor away.
He's been outside painting his deck the past few days. I don't think he's injured so I may know someone that has it now. :(

Mr. V
04-05-2020, 04:45 PM
Have there been any / many verified reports of people in the lakes region being hospitalized for and / or dying from covid-19 yet?

Out west they have a daily report of the new number of reported cases in the county and the number of deaths.

Names of victims are usually not mentioned publicly, nor their location, so it is impossible to know how close it has come to your own location.

gravy boat
04-06-2020, 07:19 AM
CONCORD, N.H. —
New Hampshire health officials announced Saturday that two more people in the state have died of COVID-19, bringing the total to nine.

The two deaths were male residents of Hillsborough County who were over 60 years old. DHHS did not announce whether either had underlying medical conditions.

Officials with the Department of Health and Human Services announced 81 new positive tests, the most announced in a single day so far.

The new cases are in people living in the following counties: Hillsborough (36, including 23 in Manchester and 7 in Nashua); Rockingham (26); Merrimack (4); Strafford (4); Belknap (3); Grafton (3); Cheshire (1); and Sullivan (1).


(Positive results reported likely due to increased testing. My guess is the true numbers will never be known as so many recover or have mild symptoms.)

TheProfessor
04-06-2020, 07:44 AM
Here is link to State of New Hampshire map of cases.

My town has 1-4 cases.

LINK (https://www.nh.gov/covid19/documents/case-map.pdf)

Here is a different page of same website:

LINK (https://www.nh.gov/covid19/)

ApS
04-09-2020, 05:44 PM
International graph, which has been down-corrected for nursing home deaths.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3cd51eb0-7a9f-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490

ApS
05-13-2020, 09:46 PM
"THIS is PBS"
;)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EX1J2NWWkAYyUlO.jpg