"Official" Ice Out Thread

[Blue Thunder]

Just wondering.....Island Girl usually posts it every year.

BT

Edit: 4/11/19 The Webmaster has designated this as the Official Ice Out thread.

[lakershaker]

I know a lot of people up around the lake are still saying a few more weeks, but the webcams look promising! Fingers crossed for warmth and wind. I always check the sat images everyday this time of year - yesterday's looks good!
14616 from https://bit.ly/2VqNivQ

[fatlazyless]

Things could maybe start to move along now, with the ice-out. Looking out all the hugely expensive mega windows from my mega-million dollar lakeside mcmansion, it sure enuf lookie likie that there dun ice is finally going from winter white, over to ice-out gray.

The ice likes to change colors, and go from white to gray, as it slowly changes from strong, safe ice to mushy slush.

There was a NH story from somewhere in southern New Hampshire yesterday, about someone who drowned while trying to rescue their dog that had broken through the ice. Both man and dog drowned. Will try to find a working link. It would be informative if there was an actual video of the drowning, because it is supposedly possible to drown very quickly, like in 45-seconds, after falling through ice, if you immediately inhale a small amount of water. What with the cold shock of the icy cold, 34-degree water, and the inhalation of a small amount of water by gasping, it all supposedly happens fast ..... is all conjecture how it happened?

Thursday or Friday, April 4 or 5, 2019: Meeting House Pond, Marlborough, NH, (just south-east of Keene) 49-yards from shore in about 12' water depth; man tried using a tree branch to rescue his golden retriever ...... www.sentinelsource.com has a short report with photograph, 5-free reads accessible without a pay wall

[MAXUM]

Lake Massebessic is ice free - was actually surprised when I took a ride by yesterday and it was wide open water.

Typically Winni is +\- two weeks behind.

[Top-Water]

Lake Massebessic is ice free - was actually surprised when I took a ride by yesterday and it was wide open water.

Typically Winni is +\- two weeks behind.

Thank you :):) specifically for this report of ice out on Lake Massebessic. Have not had an opportunity to go by it this spring. 2 to 2-1/2 weeks ago little beaver lake in derry looked like it was locked in for a few weeks and it was all gone in a day was really surprised at how quick it disappeared.

Thank you.

[MAXUM]

Thank you :):) specifically for this report of ice out on Lake Massebessic. Have not had an opportunity to go by it this spring. 2 to 2-1/2 weeks ago little beaver lake in derry looked like it was locked in for a few weeks and it was all gone in a day was really surprised at how quick it disappeared.

Thank you.

Boat ramps are open too. The gate was open on the one near the traffic circle.

[WJT2]

Anyone know the status for Lilly Pond? Good indicator for Winni Ice-Out

[Slickcraft]

Anyone know the status for Lilly Pond? Good indicator for Winni Ice-Out

It was ice early this morning. I think that Dave still works for a living and may pass by tomorrow and have a report.

Alan

[SAB1]

Plenty of snowmobiles on the ice in tuftonboro this weekend.

[MAXUM]

Emerson Aviation is posting pics of the lake ice and there are some holes out there starting to form so anyone out there on a snow machine now is really asking for trouble.

[MikeF-NH]

does any one have any pictures or info from Alton Bay (not the west Alton cams)? Its been a few years since there has been a cam at the south end of the lake and I'm looking to see how far back the ice is pushed...Sandy Point?

[MAXUM]

Hit their facebook page.

Not sure how often they are going up.

With temps forecast to get warm, even maybe closing in on the 70 degree mark come Saturday I'd expect that the typical areas such as you are interested in will be opening up a lot especially if coupled with some wind.

Hopefully we're about two weeks or less... seeing it snow yesterday was rather disappointing!

[ghfromaltonbay]

does any one have any pictures or info from Alton Bay (not the west Alton cams)? Its been a few years since there has been a cam at the south end of the lake and I'm looking to see how far back the ice is pushed...Sandy Point?

Here is a picture taken on the wall yesterday at Sandy Point. Looks like ice still in the channel by FL #23

[CoastalWx]

Hit their facebook page.

Not sure how often they are going up.

With temps forecast to get warm, even maybe closing in on the 70 degree mark come Saturday I'd expect that the typical areas such as you are interested in will be opening up a lot especially if coupled with some wind.

Hopefully we're about two weeks or less... seeing it snow yesterday was rather disappointing!

I think it should be mostly gone in 2 weeks or less.

[bilproject]

North end of the lake still has 20 to 30 inches of ice. Only a few warm days in the 15 day outlook. 70% of the days it will be cloudy. Need the sun to melt the ice.

[CoastalWx]

North end of the lake still has 20 to 30 inches of ice. Only a few warm days in the 15 day outlook. 70% of the days it will be cloudy. Need the sun to melt the ice.

Well if that is the case, might be longer. I'm curious to see how thick the ice really is currently.

[rsmlp]

North end of the lake still has 20 to 30 inches of ice. Only a few warm days in the 15 day outlook. 70% of the days it will be cloudy. Need the sun to melt the ice.


That claim seems dubious to me. I would expect to see 20-30" mid winter, not 10 days into April.

[sluggo]

14663 Cut this block out of the lake on April 4th ! No early ice out this year ...

[upthesaukee]

does any one have any pictures or info from Alton Bay (not the west Alton cams)? Its been a few years since there has been a cam at the south end of the lake and I'm looking to see how far back the ice is pushed...Sandy Point?

Yesterday to the bandstand, with open areas along the edges.

Dave

[Blue Thunder]

14663 cut this block out of the lake on april 4th ! No early ice out this year ...

wow............

[MAXUM]

well that's depressing to see.

[joey2665]

Not looking good from my camera either. In Meredith Bay the ice still looks white, I do not see any gray areas yet. :mad::fire::fire:

[Kerk]

Wolfboro White snow cover as well as Winter Harbor, 19 & 20 mile bays. Did not see much open water anywhere. Snow on the ground in lots of places from Alton up East side of lake!! Will probably be near the end of April from what I saw.. I went to Cow Island on St Patricks day many years ago!! kerk 110

[Slickcraft]

Lilly pond today only 10% to 15% open water.

[MikeF-NH]

looking at the islanders 2002 webcam on Bear Island looking back at Sheps, do my eyes deceive me or does it look like a boat is now at the dock that looks like it broke through the ice all the way from Sheps?

It doesn't look like a hovercraft but I'm pretty sure it hasn't been there all winter. If a small boat like that can break ice there...it is very encouraging that the ice may not be as thick as we all think.

scratch that...I just watched the video link and the boat is a fan boat that came came across the top of the ice early this morning. Pretty neat...never seen that on any cams before.

[WJT2]

where on the lake did you cut this block of ice?

[Bizer]

Alton: Water out to the band stand.

Wolfeboro, Libby Museum, Pier 19, Trexlers, Meredith: Water out about 50-300 feet, probably due to de-icing equipment on piers.

Twenty Mile Bay was ice right up to the shore.

I saw all ice on Mirror Lake

Winnisquam Lake south of Mohawk Island was all water.

[Kings Bluff]

does any one have any pictures or info from Alton Bay (not the west Alton cams)? Its been a few years since there has been a cam at the south end of the lake and I'm looking to see how far back the ice is pushed...Sandy Point?

Check out www.winnipesaukeecam.com. Open water at the north end, east side of Alton Bay.

[AMekler]

a water way to diamond island

[AMekler]

sorry i can't image to rotate 90 degrees

[sluggo]

Wjt2 That block was from the area of Gansy island and the ice was just as thick out to Steamboat and Jolly islands. My thoughts for ice out is going to be around the 28th this year ...

[rsmlp]

Going to very windy and pretty warm with lots of rain over the next 10 days. My take is that ice out will be sooner than most people think.

[joey2665]

In addition to the warm temp, rain and wind the real ice eater “fog” is helping things this morning. [emoji4]


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[FlyingScot]

Water expanding quickly in Tuftonboro/Moultonborough Bay

[WINNI BOB]

http://video.nest.com/live/4B5aUz6Fe7

Hi folks;

I just posted yesterday info regarding my new NEST WEB CAM @ WEIRS BEACH. It shows a great view from The WEIRS BEACH, and stretching all the way west to Meridith bay. The WEB CAM is LIVE, FULL-PAGE, with SOUND, and is PASSWORD-FREE.

Just search for NEW NEST CAM at WEIRS BEACH or left-click or enter.....

https://video.nest.com/live/4B5aUz6Fe7

[Island Girl]

In case you think the lake will not melt until June, here is a clip of last April 19 (2018). Looks pretty iced in. This will take a minute to download.


http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/video/4-19-18.mp4


Here is last April 23 with a little more action. Again takes a minute to download


http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/video/4-23-18.mp4


Ice Out was April 26th in 2018.


Have faith, it is coming!


IG


Thanks BT for starting the thread. I was remiss this year. You always have my back!

[WJT2]

Gansy aka Ganzy aka Ganzey is quite a distance from Steamboat/Birch and Jolly. Gansy is between Ambrose Cove and Lee's Mills. Did you travel to Steamboat and Jolly for like measurements?
Just wondering.

[Prestige Worldwide]

It’s starting to look like spring...

[8gv]

I saw a fiberglass runabout running about on Winnisquam Saturday.

It was nice to see.

[Grant]

http://video.nest.com/live/4B5aUz6Fe7

Hi folks;

I just posted yesterday info regarding my new NEST WEB CAM @ WEIRS BEACH. It shows a great view from The WEIRS BEACH, and stretching all the way west to Meridith bay. The WEB CAM is LIVE, FULL-PAGE, with SOUND, and is PASSWORD-FREE.

Just search for NEW NEST CAM at WEIRS BEACH or left-click or enter.....

https://video.nest.com/live/4B5aUz6Fe7

From the link above:

"This camera is missing in action."

[umbrellapoint]

Wolfeboro neck looking southwest towards rattlesnake/gunstock.

[joey2665]

From the link above:

"This camera is missing in action."

It’s working for me


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[Top-Water]

It’s working for me


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

Just an FYI was not working earlier when "Grant" posted with the text "This camera is missing in action." so he was not imagining it, however it seems to be working now as "Joey" posted.

Probably just a small glitch in the connection.

[Grant]

Yep...working now. Cool view. Love the streaming video cams. Wish the Melvin Village Marina cam would come back online.

[Blue Thunder]

In case you think the lake will not melt until June, here is a clip of last April 19 (2018). Looks pretty iced in. This will take a minute to download.


http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/video/4-19-18.mp4


Here is last April 23 with a little more action. Again takes a minute to download


http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/video/4-23-18.mp4


Ice Out was April 26th in 2018.


Have faith, it is coming!


IG


Thanks BT for starting the thread. I was remiss this year. You always have my back!

Glad to do it in your absence!! I was worried something was wrong....

[MAXUM]

Sure as heck looks like all the ice out there in the broads is about ready to break up soon as the wind kicks up.

[joey2665]

Just an FYI was not working earlier when "Grant" posted with the text "This camera is missing in action." so he was not imagining it, however it seems to be working now as "Joey" posted.

Probably just a small glitch in the connection.



Probably correct it’s out again this morning.


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[Mink Islander]

Won’t be long now.

[Slickcraft]

This morning Lilly Pond appeared to be ice free. Visibility was not 100% in the light rain so I could not really see the far corner. If there is any left tonight's wind will take care of it.

[WINNI BOB]

Hi folks;

Thanks for the comments re: my new "NEST" web cam at the Weirs Beach. Looks like, today 4/15/19, the ice is black and mushy, It is breaking up and moving around pretty good. It is clogging up the channel at Thurston's Marine, but a stiff wind should push it through.
Then hold on and watch the docks on the southern shore-line get hammered.....as usual.

WINNI BOB

[Island Girl]

This clip (will take a bit of time to download) is from this morning starting around 7:30 am until about 11:30. If you looked at my clip above from 4-23-18 you will see a bit more movement today. Last year's clip was three days before ice out.


http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/video/4-15-19.mp4


BT, nothing wrong, just a bit overwhelmed (in a good way).


IG

[tis]

Oh that poor dock!!

[Dad sold the C * C]

From my camera it looks like Winnisquam is opening up just south of Pot Island.

[MikeF-NH]

seeing cracks on the ice off Rattlesnakecam and large chunks floating on other cams. Ice is beginning to move and its pretty windy out there now. I expect much progress this week.

[Slickcraft]

Alton Bay up past Sandy Point shows the ice divided into large sections just waiting for the wind.

Looking from Belknap point at 5:30 pm there is a wide section of open water spanning from Ellacoya to SW Welch. By morning the wind will have probably closed that in but up opening other sections. The annual ice migration toward Wolfeboro bay has begun. I can hear the wind and the beat of the drums now:D

[MAXUM]

Bet there won't be much ice on the cameras in the morning. Lots of open water from different vantage points. Be awesome to have the boat out this weekend.

[Steamboat]

Ice appears largely out to the WNW of Steamboat, and South towards Gilford.

[Island Girl]

This clip is the actual speed of the ice moving down Rattlesnake Island around 6 this evening. It is piling up somewhere!

http://rattlesnakecam.com/video/4-15-19-622.mov

[cessnaair]

14686 this is photo I hope

[Island Girl]

The ice is out as far as mtpy cams can see in front of Rattlesnake Island. Big rollers today.

[Mink Islander]

Still a bit of ice on the north side of Mink Island. Today’s wind is going to move that along, I suspect.

[Prestige Worldwide]

It’s starting to look like spring...



Wow, just a few days and the broads are open. 14689

[sluggo]

Gansy aka Ganzy aka Ganzey is quite a distance from Steamboat/Birch and Jolly. Gansy is between Ambrose Cove and Lee's Mills. Did you travel to Steamboat and Jolly for like measurements?
Just wondering.

WJT2.... I work on the lake and I cover a lot of territory out there. The day I cut that block by Ganzy we were prepping a site for a new dock and from there I went ice fishing off Steamboat latter in the day.

[Slickcraft]

View today from Belknap Point. Clear to Welch and to the Broads. Looks like ice around 40 Islands, Round, Timber and Saunders Bay. Glendale is open.

[Barney Bear]

Bet we see a nice sunset pic from Welch Island soon, thanks to Slickcraft. 🐻

[codeman671]

Lots of breakage piling up between Mark and Bear coming in from Meredith Neck. Should blow through in the next day or two.

[steve-on-mark]

Lots of breakage piling up between Mark and Bear coming in from Meredith Neck. Should blow through in the next day or two.Long as it stays away from my docks!

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[Mink Islander]

Icebergs making their way past the north side of Mink Island

[fatlazyless]

.... large surprise to me that so far today, the ice coverage out front my mega-million dollar, mongrel little dilapidated cottage ...... looking from Gov Isl to Timber to Mark to south Bear and to Penny to Dolly to Horse to Meredith Neck .... has gone from about 98.6% old ice to about 18.6% old ice ..... the wind done beat it to pieces, so far today ..... and it done sank .... or something .... is mostly now open water ..... and time to get some aluminum and go fix my vintage-1952 aluminum dock ....... again!

.... and, I had been think'n it was a couple weeks away or something?

[pault842]

2 pics taken from Mt. Klem in the Belknaps today, the Broads is pretty clear. Over in Alton Bay most ice is gone as of this morning.

[escaped from NJ]

I'm sure I'm not the only one... I'm just dying to get up to our cottage (on Little Bear) this long weekend. Can someone with a historical and knowledgeable opinion provide a forecast as to the percentage-possibility that ice out will be called by Friday afternoon? Or that there will be clear open water from Melvin Village to the north side of Little Bear? Otherwise, next week may be the longest week of the year! I might not survive the excruciating wait.

[webmaster]

There's still a lot of stuff moving around at Weirs Beach but that could change quickly (nice shots from the webcams too!):

[joey2665]

Second photo is incredible


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[JMR]

I was in Alton and Gilford this afternoon. There was no ice visible from Ames Farm to the “southern” tip of Rattlwsnake. I will try to attach pics. No ice at Rattlesnake Landing, either. West Alton Marina still has ice but it is breaking up14701

[RUGMAN]

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=14703&stc=1&d=1555499287

[AC2717]

does anyone have any updates on Paugus Bay?

[webmaster]

does anyone have any updates on Paugus Bay?Here's the view of Paugus Bay this morning from the Anchor Marine CAM (https://www.anchormarine.net/cam/index.html):

[Blyblvrd]

view from salmon meadow cove this morning


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[FlyingScot]

I'm sure I'm not the only one... I'm just dying to get up to our cottage (on Little Bear) this long weekend. Can someone with a historical and knowledgeable opinion provide a forecast as to the percentage-possibility that ice out will be called by Friday afternoon? Or that there will be clear open water from Melvin Village to the north side of Little Bear? Otherwise, next week may be the longest week of the year! I might not survive the excruciating wait.

With the vast historical knowledge base that only a person who was in Melvin Village last Thursday could possibly possess--sorry, it seems almost unimaginable that this Friday would be clear for that route.

[Mink Islander]

Unfortunately without some wind to stir things up, I doubt Winnie will be clear of all the floating slush by the weekend. This is from Mink Island looking north. Bear Island (Camp Lawrence) on the left. Jolly Island on the right.

[Lake Fan]

I'm sure I'm not the only one... I'm just dying to get up to our cottage (on Little Bear) this long weekend. Can someone with a historical and knowledgeable opinion provide a forecast as to the percentage-possibility that ice out will be called by Friday afternoon? Or that there will be clear open water from Melvin Village to the north side of Little Bear? Otherwise, next week may be the longest week of the year! I might not survive the excruciating wait.

We are on Whortleberry and it's been our experience over the years that even if "ice out" is declared, it can be another day or two before all the ice is gone in that area. It's usually pretty thin though - we've broken through it with the boat on the way over a time or two. Looking forward to your report if you venture out. :)

[MAXUM]

Birds eye view

https://www.facebook.com/Emerson-Aviation-131847876851023/

They just uploaded some fresh pics. ;)

[jeffk]

Center Harbor is still iced in so the Mount is unable to leave its winter dock.

[Top-Water]

Thank you for the Center Harbor report.

[lakegirl62]

Anxious to get on the water, is the water open in front of Shep Brown's?

[escaped from NJ]

With the vast historical knowledge base that only a person who was in Melvin Village last Thursday could possibly possess--sorry, it seems almost unimaginable that this Friday would be clear for that route.

Melvin Village Marina confirmed today that there is still lots of ice in the bay. (Tear flick!)

[fatlazyless]

Anxious to get on the water, is the water open in front of Shep Brown's?

Do not know, but suspect the inside passage is still iced from Pine Island south to the ice edge 200-yards south of Rock Island, which is 200-yards north of Cattle Landing.

Will take a ride down to Shep Browns and to Y-Landing later on, this morning, and take a look-see.

[Mink Islander]

Unfortunately islanders2002 webcam is down on rattlesnakecam.com. It looks directly south at Shep’s. Looks like the power may be off on the west end of Bear since the two Bearcams that are also near the channel with Pine Island are also dark.

[webmaster]

Thank you for the Center Harbor report.There's a live webcam at Center Harbor:

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

[snowflake]

Thanks to all who are sharing great pictures of progress of ice out. I loved the live shots. See you in August.

[codeman671]

Unfortunately islanders2002 webcam is down on rattlesnakecam.com. It looks directly south at Shep’s. Looks like the power may be off on the west end of Bear since the two Bearcams that are also near the channel with Pine Island are also dark.

Either DSL or power is off on Mark as my cams are down. Are you still live on your cam? NHEC is showing a Meredith outage.

[MDoug]

NHEC rep says crew will be out to Bear when ice is out.

[WINNI BOB]

does anyone have any updates on Paugus Bay?

Hi;

My TRITOON IS IN THE WATER @ THURSTONS MARINA, AND TOOK A SPIN ARROUND PAUGUS BAY > Ice is out all the way to Christmas Isand, but you have to be careful as there are some spongy ice comming thru the channel when the wind blow down from the north.

There is a lot of ice dammed up at the mouth of the Weirs channel. and it could get pushed down thru the channel at any time in the next 2 days.

WINNI BOB

[AC2717]

Hi;

My TRITOON IS IN THE WATER @ THURSTONS MARINA, AND TOOK A SPIN ARROUND PAUGUS BAY > Ice is out all the way to Christmas Isand, but you have to be careful as there are some spongy ice comming thru the channel when the wind blow down from the north.

There is a lot of ice dammed up at the mouth of the Weirs channel. and it could get pushed down thru the channel at any time in the next 2 days.

WINNI BOB

Thank you for the Update, would you say the ice is weak enough that it would not cause damage if dock or a lift went in the water this weekend?

[fatlazyless]

Ok .... as seen ten minutes ago, from the Shep Brown boat launch, the lake there is all clogged up with gray, yucky ice from Sheps out to Bear Island, in both directions.

As seen from the Y-Landing docks, viewed from Pine Island to Bear Island, and from Pine Island north toward Centre Harbor, is all clogged up with gray ice.

From the Y-Landing docks to Pine Island and to the nearby island with the large A-frame house, is all open water.

And from Rock Island, the ice line has moved south getting to just about one hundred yards north of Cattle Landing.

Meanwhile, in the last ten minutes , the wind has noticeably picked up, and today's weather indicates more windy breezes, so that could do impact on all this gray slushy ice.

After going slushy, ice loses its' buoyancy and sinks before it totally melts, so it's a combination of melting, absorbing water, going slushy, and sinking while going from winter white to yucky gray. The strong elastic winter white ice, made during the deep freeze, expands to 110% of its' liquid volume, which is why this ice will float on the surface. As it melts and mixes with water, it reaches a condition where it will no longer remain buoyant, and it sinks.

[TiltonBB]

Ok .... as seen ten minutes ago, from the Shep Brown boat launch, the lake there is all clogged up with gray, yucky ice from Sheps out to Bear Island, in both directions.

As seen from the Y-Landing docks, viewed from Pine Island to Bear Island, and from Pine Island north toward Centre Harbor, is all clogged up with gray ice.

From the Y-Landing docks to Pine Island and to the nearby island with the large A-frame house, is all open water.

And from Rock Island, the ice line has moved south getting to just about one hundred yards north of Cattle Landing.

Meanwhile, in the last ten minutes , the wind has noticeably picked up, and today's weather indicates more windy breezes, so that could do impact on all this gray slushy ice.

After going slushy, ice loses its' buoyancy and sinks before it totally melts, so it's a combination of melting, absorbing water, going slushy, and sinking while going from winter white to yucky gray. The strong elastic winter white ice, made during the deep freeze, expands to 110% of its' liquid volume, which is why this ice will float on the surface. As it melts and mixes with water, it reaches a condition where it will no longer remain buoyant, and it sinks.

Excellent! A serious, informative, 100% useful post! Great!

[fatlazyless]

..... hey there Buddy ..... every one of my posts is serious, useful and great ..... you just need to adjust your attitude a little bit!


Mink Island ice: ..... and, looking at Mink Island from about a mile away, and down the passage between Mark and Timber, what was yesterday's all ice is now today's all open water.

[Bear Islander]

Ok .... as seen ten minutes ago, from the Shep Brown boat launch, the lake there is all clogged up with gray, yucky ice from Sheps out to Bear Island, in both directions.

As seen from the Y-Landing docks, viewed from Pine Island to Bear Island, and from Pine Island north toward Centre Harbor, is all clogged up with gray ice.

From the Y-Landing docks to Pine Island and to the nearby island with the large A-frame house, is all open water.

And from Rock Island, the ice line has moved south getting to just about one hundred yards north of Cattle Landing.

Meanwhile, in the last ten minutes , the wind has noticeably picked up, and today's weather indicates more windy breezes, so that could do impact on all this gray slushy ice.

After going slushy, ice loses its' buoyancy and sinks before it totally melts, so it's a combination of melting, absorbing water, going slushy, and sinking while going from winter white to yucky gray. The strong elastic winter white ice, made during the deep freeze, expands to 110% of its' liquid volume, which is why this ice will float on the surface. As it melts and mixes with water, it reaches a condition where it will no longer remain buoyant, and it sinks.

Contrary to what many believe... Lake ice does not sink.

[Slickcraft]

Over the past 20 years official ice out is 3 to 5 days after our 1st trip to Welch.


As we could have got out yesterday rather than waaaaaiting all the way to today, for this year that would be the 2oth to the 22nd. My pick of the 21st is still in the running:D

[ghfromaltonbay]

Enjoyed reading your calculations. My guess of 11:22am on 4/22 still stands a chance too. Hope your Firstmate was able to make the trip with you.:)

[Slickcraft]

Enjoyed reading your calculations. My guess of 11:22am on 4/22 still stands a chance too. Hope your Firstmate was able to make the trip with you.:)


Yes she made the trip; she would not miss it.

[welch-time]

Over the past 20 years official ice out is 3 to 5 days after our 1st trip to Welch.


As we could have got out yesterday rather than waaaaaiting all the way to today, for this year that would be the 2oth to the 22nd. My pick of the 21st is still in the running:D

Hey, when you get there, can you go and fix my downed phone cable so I can see whats going on?
(just kidding, we should be there in 2 weeks)

[Slickcraft]

Hey, when you get there, can you go and fix my downed phone cable so I can see whats going on?
(just kidding, we should be there in 2 weeks)

We were there today and our DSL is working. Will be back by Monday but I just can't recall where I left my pole climbing boots, spikes, tether belt and tool bag:D

[CoastalWx]

I think it should be mostly gone in 2 weeks or less.

Yep. Any day now.

[rsmlp]

Ok .... as seen ten minutes ago, from the Shep Brown boat launch, the lake there is all clogged up with gray, yucky ice from Sheps out to Bear Island, in both directions.

As seen from the Y-Landing docks, viewed from Pine Island to Bear Island, and from Pine Island north toward Centre Harbor, is all clogged up with gray ice.

From the Y-Landing docks to Pine Island and to the nearby island with the large A-frame house, is all open water.

And from Rock Island, the ice line has moved south getting to just about one hundred yards north of Cattle Landing.

Meanwhile, in the last ten minutes , the wind has noticeably picked up, and today's weather indicates more windy breezes, so that could do impact on all this gray slushy ice.

After going slushy, ice loses its' buoyancy and sinks before it totally melts, so it's a combination of melting, absorbing water, going slushy, and sinking while going from winter white to yucky gray. The strong elastic winter white ice, made during the deep freeze, expands to 110% of its' liquid volume, which is why this ice will float on the surface. As it melts and mixes with water, it reaches a condition where it will no longer remain buoyant, and it sinks.

So my soon to be son-in-lawn has coined the term "Lescar-fact". Since our last name is Lescarbeau, a Lescar-fact is a False Fact said with such aplomb and confidence that anyone who didn't know any better would be convinced of its veracity when in fact it is spurious. It is a false fact! I am famous for them.

While I am admittedly unsure, this strikes me as a Lescar-fact!

[Pine Island Guy]

Made it to Pine Island from Y-Landing on Wednesday. Clear water in the channel and then pushed through the ice on the south side of the island around to the east... slow going!

with a little wind, it won't be more than a few days now till full ice out!! -PIG

[Mink Islander]

Fog eats ice though....

[8gv]

At the risk of being "that guy", I believe that the fog may be a result of the ice going away, not the cause of it. :)

Can someone set me straight on this belief?

[DickR]

At the risk of being "that guy", I believe that the fog may be a result of the ice going away, not the cause of it. :)

Can someone set me straight on this belief?

It's both. The fog forms close to the ice because the layer of air there is cooled below the dew point of the bulk air mass over us, which (for Moultonborough at 6:19pm) is 60 F. But the moisture in that somewhat humid air also is condensing at the ice surface, giving it about 1000 BTU/lb of moisture condensed. Compare that to about 143 BTU/lb of ice melted, and you have close to seven pounds of ice melted per pound of moisture condensed out of the air. Think of the ice as being a dehumidifier for the air. You wouldn't notice the fog if there were any wind, as that would keep the air layers mixed, but the rate of melting would be even higher. The mixing would bring the energy in the warmer, somewhat humid air to the ice surface faster.

[WINNI BOB]

HI folks;

I decided to do a little fishing today 4/19/19, friday, My tritoon was already in the water at Thurstons Marine in the Weirs channel. I decided to motor up the channel and fish in front of the Weirs Beach area. There was a lot of dark , mushy ice, and it pretty much was blocking the channel . But, as the day wore on...2:00 pm and the temp quickly rose to near 65 degrees, and the wind kicked in soon afterwards....the ice started moving north towards Governors Island and Spindle Point(the north shoreline) ..the entire Weirs bay area opened right up. I had a great day, and by 6:00 pm I connected with my first salmon of the year, a nice 18" salmon.

I could see the inside of Governers Island was completely open.

I'm predicting that ice-out will occur by the end of the day tomorrow.

WINNI BOB

[WINNI BOB]

The entire Weirs Beach area opened up late today. I caught my first salmon at 6:30 pm right in front of the Weirs Beach area. I could see open water all the way through the inside of Governors Island.

Whoppee !!!!


WINNI BOB

[8gv]

Riddle me this Batman...

As I understand it, ice out is declared by pilot Emerson who flies his plane over the lake to verify it is safe for the Mount Washington to make all of its stops.

But...

What if the weather conditions preclude safe flight and he has to wait a few days to go look? For instance, if the weather delayed the flight until Monday, say at 3pm, that could happen right?

Asking for a friend...

[Seaplane Pilot]

Riddle me this Batman...

As I understand it, ice out is declared by pilot Emerson who flies his plane over the lake to verify it is safe for the Mount Washington to make all of its stops.

But...

What if the weather conditions preclude safe flight and he has to wait a few days to go look? For instance, if the weather delayed the flight until Monday, say at 3pm, that could happen right?

Asking for a friend...

It will be ruled as “Obstruction of Ice Out” by Special Counsel. Emerson will be impeached for collusion with the ice gods...

[fatlazyless]

Contrary to what many believe... Lake ice does not sink.

From observing large areas of gray slushy ice disappear into the water, all at once, it seems to me the slush is both melting, losing buoyancy, and sinking, all at the same time.

Too big of an area of slush will disappear into the water, all at once, for it to be just melting, which leads me to think that the slush also sinks.

[jeffk]

It will be ruled as “Obstruction of Ice Out” by Special Counsel. Emerson will be impeached for collusion with the ice gods...

Au contraire. Since Emerson is Chief Ice Out Executive, we will simply have ice out declared in July and there will be no consequences. All the people who had ice out guesses will grumble and chip in to buy him a new plane that can fly in all types of weather. :D

[Sundancer320]

Anyone have eyes on 19 mile bay recently?

[The Real BigGuy]

Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water. Even if it is saturated (in holes, crevices, etc) with the water that surrounds it will still be more buoyant.


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[Kerk]

19 mile was dark gray with a lot of open water around the shore. I would not be surprised to see it gone ANYTIME SOON. There is a Pontoon boat in at 19 Mile bay. Every where it looked real dark and ready to go out. Wolfboro etc. Just my opinion. kerk

[fatlazyless]

Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water. Even if it is saturated (in holes, crevices, etc) with the water that surrounds it will still be more buoyant.[/url]

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.

On a sunny day, from the shore, one can stand there, and watch the glistening slush as it slowly descends downward into the depths. The slush loses its' buoyancy and very slowly sinks.

[BoatHouse]

Wolfeboro bay is “slushed” in, but there appears to be open water before the point and out toward Barndoor.


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[Top-Water]

which leads me to think

https://i.imgur.com/qD7A2Bb.png

Ice floats on a lake's surface until it is melted. Although it sometimes floats low in the water, it does not sink to the bottom, as some mistakenly believe.


Water is heaviest at 39 degrees, lighter at higher or lower temperatures. Falling air temperatures in autumn and lower sun angles, in conjunction with wind and wave action, result in the lowering of lake temperatures. Because the cooler water is heavier, it will sink, displacing and forcing warmer water to the surface. This continues until the entire lake reaches a temperature of about 39 degrees.

Following this, surface temperatures will fall below 39 degrees and the cooler and lighter water will remain at the surface. As the surface water cools further, it will eventually change into ice.

Because the ice is colder and less dense than the water below it, it floats. In the spring, the reverse occurs. Rising air temperature and higher sun angles cause melting to begin on top of the ice layer.

If there are no cracks or fissures, the melting water will accumulate on top of the ice. If this happens over an entire lake (which is unlikely) or over parts of the lake, one might get the impression that the ice is sinking. But it isn't.


Further warming will cause the ice to become rotted or honeycombed, with water and air filling the void. The dark color of ice in late winter is because of this honeycombing. As the honeycombing process continues, the ice mass floats lower and lower in the water until it is completely melted, but it never sinks to the bottom.

One of the wonders of the planet earth and floating ice, without it the planet would more likely be dead.

[Top-Water]

Why do people think I’ve sinks? My recollection from chemistry/physics is that ice is less dense than water an therefore always floats on/in water.

You are correct :) It always always always always always floats.

[Top-Water]

HI folks;

I decided to do a little fishing today 4/19/19,

I hope a meteorite hits your boat today............... Very jealous :laugh::laugh:

Good luck / congratulations on your first fish.:)

[chaseisland]

When swimming I always wondered why the water was colder deeper down. It's all that sunken slushy ice. And I'll see the Easter bunny tomorrow.

[Biggd]

My mind is going slushy reading this thread! :rolleye1:

[The Real BigGuy]

FLL fresh water is never more dense than fresh water. As long as the “slush” (water & ice) contains ice, again which is less dense than water it will float, not sink. And by the way sublimation is the transition from a solid directly to a gas. Fresh water ice doesn’t do that, it melts to water.


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[chaseisland]

Hate to be disagreeable, but a small amount of ice will sublime to vapor and become incorporated into the atmosphere. When the conditions are right the sublimed water vapor will condense and become fog (which then eats more ice).

[jethro]

That's it, I'm going trolling tomorrow no matter if I hear from Emerson or not!

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[webmaster]

I decided to do a little fishing today 4/19/19, friday, My tritoon was already in the water at Thurstons Marine in the Weirs channel. I decided to motor up the channel and fish in front of the Weirs Beach area.Was that you?:

[Bear Islander]

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.

On a sunny day, from the shore, one can stand there, and watch the glistening slush as it slowly descends downward into the depths. The slush loses its' buoyancy and very slowly sinks.

Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion. Admittedly there are scientific questions that have yet to be answered. Like how to measure quantum mechanics? Do parallel universes exist? However the science behind ice floating is not an open question.

Try a simple internet search.

[Top-Water]

Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion. Admittedly there are scientific questions that have yet to be answered. Like how to measure quantum mechanics? Do parallel universes exist? However the science behind ice floating is not an open question.

Try a simple internet search.

Double thanks .......... :):) As you correctly stated "Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion."

[MAXUM]

So what do you call an "opinionated" scientist?

[DickR]

Hate to be disagreeable, but a small amount of ice will sublime to vapor and become incorporated into the atmosphere. When the conditions are right the sublimed water vapor will condense and become fog (which then eats more ice).

Further to this, ice does indeed sublime, even if well below the melting point, because it, too, exerts vapor pressure into the space above it. Visible proof if this is when driving in cold weather; if there is any thin film of ice on the windshield (from whatever source), driving along in that cold, dry air results in that ice evaporating to nothing.

The situation of ice melting in water is unique in that 32 F is the "triple point" of water, at which you can have water, ice floating in it, and a water vapor space above it (very cold steam, at that very low pressure), all in thermal equilibrium. Also, as part of that definition, the vapor pressure exerted by ice (0.08854 psi) is the same as the pressure exerted by liquid water. However, by enthalpy balance, the heat of sublimation (energy absorbed going from solid ice to vapor is the total of heat of fusion (143 BTU/lb) plus heat of vaporization (1075.8). Any ice that sublimes or water that evaporates into the air above it absorbs the heat it needs to do so mostly from the water and partly from the air in contact with the surface (that theoretically would cause some water to refreeze if done slowly). Condensing that water vapor back onto the water/ice surface would just return the energy absorbed by turning into vapor, so it's mostly a wash (I guess that's a pun, too).

[Mink Islander]

When do discussions of lake ice melting move from the sublime to the ridiculous? Asking for a friend. Lol.

Love the science talk but couldn’t resist....

[Top-Water]

So what do you call an "opinionated" scientist?

In a one word answer?

[WINNI BOB]

Was that you?:

Yep ! That's me (WINNI BOB) got a nice Salmon right there.

[Lakegeezer]

The ice is moving quickly to the north this afternoon. Ice crinkles as it hits rocks and is building up on some. Fog is blowing off the gray ice, at times obscuring visibility. A neighbor put their dock in today. Hopefully it will survive the momentum of the ice flows.

[Island Girl]

I have enjoyed the science of ice. It’s going to take awhile for it all to sink in....so to speak.

In the meantime my boat is in the water and Minge Cove is ice free, including the channel. Wahoo!!!

IG

[Bear Islander]

So what do you call an "opinionated" scientist?

A Climate Change denier.

[rscalzo]

Science is based on facts that are not open to opinion. Admittedly there are scientific questions that have yet to be answered.

Like the question that has baffled man for eons.....

https://i.imgur.com/FemRlLw.jpg

[TiltonBB]

A Climate Change denier.

Unless of course you read this article:

The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from the Consulate at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.

Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm

Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coast cities uninhabitable.



I must apologize. I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2 , 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 96 years ago. This must have been caused by the Model T Ford's emissions or possibly from horse and cattle flatulence.

[tis]

Wow, that's a good one. I must admit you had me till the last!! Sounds so familiar!!

[joey2665]

Had me also. Article is is available online?


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[Cobalt 25]

Yes, I would like to see the source of the information from 1922.

[joey2665]

Yes, I would like to see the source of the information from 1922.



It’s says Consulate of Bergen, Norway and printed in the Washington Post November 2, 1922


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[Merrymeeting]

It’s says Consulate of Bergen, Norway and printed in the Washington Post November 2, 1922


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Yes, but the question is, was it? Until someone can post a link to the actual article, it isn't fact.

[MAXUM]

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/warm-welcome/

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/changing-artic_monthly_wx_review.png

[8gv]

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech. ;)

[FlyingScot]

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

[joey2665]

Yes, but the question is, was it? Until someone can post a link to the actual article, it isn't fact.



You have got to be kidding !!! They gave publication date and source. Just look it up if you doubt it.

It wasn’t some meme picture someone posted

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[steve-on-mark]

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech. ;)I predicted an earlier ice out this year...so much for that. All I can hope for now is to win the Two Barns " name the beer" contest...bottoms up![emoji6]

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[Lakegirl24]

I’ve been saying the 22nd all along! I’ll be SO EXCITED if I’m right this year! I don’t know about all of you but I’m ready to get back out on the lake!!!!

[Bear Islander]

Unless of course you read this article:

The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from the Consulate at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.

Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm

Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coast cities uninhabitable.



I must apologize. I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2 , 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 96 years ago. This must have been caused by the Model T Ford's emissions or possibly from horse and cattle flatulence.

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

[joey2665]

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

Are we really to the point that we do not believe anything anymore? We are questioning the agenda of an article written almost 100 years ago.

[Descant]

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.

Or perhaps we're getting bored watching ice melt?

[Rusty]

Yes, but the question is, was it? Until someone can post a link to the actual article, it isn't fact.

The link to the article was already posted but I thought I would post it without having to go to the link.

[DEJ]

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.
:offtopic:

[fatlazyless]

:offtopic:

No, it's not off topic.

With google, any nitwit can easily find multiple references on any one topic, idea, person, historical event or anything else ...... and is pretty easy to find a reference that supports what you already were thinking or whatever agenda you are promoting ..... I do it all the time.

[DEJ]

No, it's not off topic.

With google, any nitwit can easily find multiple references on any one topic, idea, person, historical event or anything else ...... and is pretty easy to find a reference that supports what you already were thinking or whatever agenda you are promoting ..... I do it all the time.

I rest my case. :laugh:

[Sundancer320]

Can we please keep this thread for ice conditions and open water and NOT political environmental back and forth?

[chaseisland]

Ice out was just declared in my vodka on the rocks, Woe is me!

[MAXUM]

So we are still on track for 4/22 at 3pm then.

I shall prepare my acceptance speech. ;)

That would be to controversial. :emb:

[FlyingScot]

Are we really to the point that we do not believe anything anymore? We are questioning the agenda of an article written almost 100 years ago.

No on both counts--

It is the agenda of people using the article today that has been questioned.

It is climate change deniers who have a hard time believing things in the face of overwhelming evidence.

[joey2665]

No on both counts--



It is the agenda of people using the article today that has been questioned.



It is climate change deniers who have a hard time believing things in the face of overwhelming evidence.



Sorry on both accounts. They are denying the source author of the article and I do think climate change is over exaggerated


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[sladd]

Yesterday after I drive on Rte 11 from Alton to Meredith and didn’t see any ice. Anyone know how Wolfboro looks?


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[TiltonBB]

Did you start with your own beliefs then look for data or articles that support your ideas? That's hardly "scientific".

Perhaps that article was written to support a political position. Perhaps it was just wrong. Perhaps the author was simply tying to create a sensational article that would create interest. It succeed in sparking your interest 97 years later. Perhaps the author, like you, started with a preconceived notion and looked for data or reports to support that belief.
Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change

I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot) :)

[8gv]

Yeah but...

Did Emerson get the plane out of the hangar yet?

I have been running the fog machine all night...

[MAXUM]

Yesterday after I drive on Rte 11 from Alton to Meredith and didn’t see any ice. Anyone know how Wolfboro looks?


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As of Saturday....

Ice in there nothing solid looked like ice that was blowing in from the broads that was chunks from elsewhere. It's pretty much an ice flow that shifts around with the prevailing wind. Guaranteed it will "sink" by mid week ;)

FYI water levels right now are HIGH!

It'll be gone this week.

In other news... parking lot was full at the state boat ramp in Alton Bay.

[Top-Water]

Guaranteed it will "sink" by mid week ;)

Would you know how long it takes for Marine Patrol to have the sunken ice marked off. :D: What color buoys do they use for sunken ice. ;);)

[ApS]

It's kind of silly to suggest that because somebody may have been wrong a hundred years ago that the entire scientific community is wrong today. And it's ironic to use a fact check site that may show one article in favor of climate change denial when that same site likely shows about a thousand (a million?) other references that support climate change
When politics (and money) is involved?

https://i.servimg.com/u/f91/18/11/38/95/1yn2xh10.jpg

[webmaster]

Just posted by Emerson Aviation (https://www.facebook.com/Emerson-Aviation-131847876851023/):

Center Harbor Bay and beyond. The Northern sections of the Lake is still encased in ice. This was from last night before sunset. We'll be back up later this morning. Probably a couple more days.

[Slickcraft]

I am surprised at that so long after mid lake being clear of ice.

In the mean time we got the water in on Welch yesterday and were rewarded with a pretty nice sunset.

[MAXUM]

Would you know how long it takes for Marine Patrol to have the sunken ice marked off. :D: What color buoys do they use for sunken ice. ;);)

There was heated debate over this at the MP HQ.

DPW thought it appropriate to float some "frost heave" signs over them.

MP wanted to attach 2 foot long reflective hot pink noodles to them. Secretly it's believed the reason why is a trip to the hardware store is rewarded with free super duper coffee which does not compare to the stuff they have at the MP HQ and they are always looking to bling out their patrol boats with random trinkets from the discount bargain bin at the front of the store.

Who will win this epic battle? Guess we will wait and find out!

Unnamed, but well known sources from within Emerson Aviation familiar with this have assured the public that they will provide photos from the air of marked areas of sunken ice.

Bizer will be also updating their 2019 navigational charts with the newly created "seasonal" markings complete with GPS coordinates. Laminated charts will not be available till June.

First printed, Associated Press, April 22, 1922.

[Bear Islander]

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.



I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot) :)

It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

[joey2665]

Just posted by Emerson Aviation (https://www.facebook.com/Emerson-Aviation-131847876851023/):

I guess the wind blew all the ice into Center Harbor

[Garcia]

Your presumptions could not be more incorrect. And I assume you know what is often said about people who assume things. The article was emailed to me by a friend. I laughed when I read it because of the last sentence and I shared it because I though other people would too. It's that simple.



I am not sure when you had the time to interview "the entire scientific community" but you must have missed a few scientists. I can assure you that there are plenty of scientists that disagree with a lot of the global warming or climate change (or whatever they call it this week) theories.

I don't know what is right at this time but it is pretty obvious the the person quoted in the article was wrong about climate change 100 years ago. Most of the predictions never came true.

From another source:

The Great Global Warming Swindle

The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on global warming exists.

The film, made by British television producer Martin Durkin, presents scientists, economists, politicians, writers, and others who dispute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. The programme's publicity materials assert that man-made global warming is "a lie" and "the biggest scam of modern times."


So, sometimes when you only listen to people who agree with you it tends to skew your opinions, and if what is said confirms your opinions, you feel it validates them.

In life, and in politics, that can often work against you.

And then there is this:

31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs (Must be some of the scientists missed by FlyingScot) :)

Here's a link to the Snopes article: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/30000-scientists-reject-climate-change/

The beauty of the information age - one can always find something to support a position!

An entertaining distraction while I wait for the ice to go out...

[DEJ]

It's incredible how people can get sucked into internet fakes. That "Petition" has been circulated for more that twenty years. Snopes declare it to be false. Included as signatories are the Spice Girls band and most of the character in Star Wars. And the funding originated with the oil industry.

It only takes a few seconds to check out things on Snopes BEFORE you post.

:offtopic:
This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

[Mink Islander]

You gotta complaint about what’s happening on a particular thread, I suggest you relay your concern to the moderator rather than playing net nanny for the rest of us. He’s actually does quite a good job if you let him.

Just sayin’.

Oh, and I know, I’m contributing by bitching about the people who are bitching! LOL.

[JasJackson]

Center Harbor is clearing quite nicely from the pics Emerson posted on FB 4 hours ago. 2 views by Long Island Bridge near Trexlers.

[JasJackson]

Top: a view looking NW towards Center Harbor. Bottom: a view looking SE into Moultonborough Bay

[Bear Islander]

:offtopic:
This is a thread about ice conditions on the lake, please stay on topic or start another thread.

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

[LIforrelaxin]

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

[DEJ]

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

:offtopic:
PLEASE start another thread if you wish to discuss global warming, thank you.

[DEJ]

I agree .....

However your stance of ice out getting later over time, indicates not necessarily global warming, but rather a shift in the timing of the season, in our "calendar year"..... These things can be shown or not scientifically, however screaming global warming has a much better chaotic effect to it.

I am not saying that global warming isn't a real thing.... but I also believe with more study we might find some additional shifts and re-alignments going on, as mother natures determines and figures out how to deal with the biggest environmental challenge on earth "MAN"

Yep I just went there............

:offtopic:
PLEASE start another thread if you want to continue to discuss global warming. Thanks.

[thinkxingu]

*Steps in, looking for discussion about ice out and climate change, finds DEJ posting more requests to separate off-topic posts than actual off-topic posts, steps out...after wondering for a moment whether or not someone will actually count the number of DEJ requests or will recognize hyperbole*

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[webmaster]

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout) that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

[JasJackson]

With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

[ericnh]

With the latest view from Center Harbor Inn, it looks as though the Mount Washington can leave her winter port and head back to The Weirs...

https://centerharborinn.com/winnipesaukee-webcam/

Ice out 4/23/19 @ 6:10a? Wakey wakey eggs ‘n bakey Emerson Aviation!

Drove through Center Harbor on Monday afternoon and still has plenty of ice.

[rsmlp]

The problem is that this thread is for Ice-Out updates. If you want to start another thread about Climate Change and the lake you are welcome to do so but this thread should be about the status of the lake ice during this period.

For those interested in that other topic check the data on our Ice-Out page (https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout) that shows the Ice-Out dates for the last 130 or so years.

Right on. BTW, a cursory review of ice out dates suggests the median to be right about now, maybe a day later or so.

[ApS]

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake? I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.
Yeah! Where was Emerson Aviation in 1887?

Oh wait: Emerson Aviation has just made an announcement—which I quote:

"Covfefe"

;)

[Fever29]

Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

[nj2nh]

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.



Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


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[Biggd]

Earliest ice out ever was in 2016. So much for it getting later.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)That was a strange winter. I remember walking around Meredith at Christmas time in a T-shirt.

[pondguy]

Emerson just posted an update... looks like ice out could be this afternoon!

"Closing in on ice out. As of 11:00 Center Harbor is holding on but just barely."

It could sink any minute now ! :emb:

[MDoug]

NHEC crew got to Bear when ice cleared enough and restored power just now.:)

[Pricestavern]

Are you suggesting that global warming has no connection with ice conditions on the lake?

I disagree. It seems to me that ice out is getting later over time. However that observation is anecdotal and not scientific.

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

[MAXUM]

See there you go, proof that ice sinks faster today than it did in the late 1800's. ;)

[nj2nh]

It could sink any minute now ! :emb:



I read an article recently that sinking ice is a myth. It cannot and does not sink. Always thought it did, too.


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[Fever29]

So close!!

[Barney Bear]

Missed my guess of 1:23 PM. this afternoon. Maybe next year. 🐻

[Bear Islander]

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Good work!

That graph is very telling. It especially shows the change in the last 40 years. My anecdotal perceptions were wrong.

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

[DEJ]

Good work!

Looks to me like an indication of Climate Change.

:offtopic:

[thinkxingu]

*Steps in, looking for discussion about ice out and climate change, finds DEJ posting more requests to separate off-topic posts than actual off-topic posts, steps out...after wondering for a moment whether or not someone will actually count the number of DEJ requests or will recognize hyperbole*

Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk^

Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk

[Garcia]

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

Thanks! The graph supports my less than scientific memory of the ice going out in late April when I was a child. Now I plan to have the dock in and camp open in mid April (certainly by the third week or so). A year like this year seems late - then again, maybe I’m just less patient as I get older!

[DEJ]

^

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:offtopic:

[Bear Islander]

:offtopic:

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

[DEJ]

You post a quote of my post but you edit my quote to change my meaning! Totally unfair.

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

[MAXUM]

Cry me a river. Please read post #186.

:offtopic:

[DEJ]

:offtopic:

Good one, :laugh:

[MAXUM]

Couldn't resist! ;)

[bilproject]

Still Ice around the mount in Center Harbor. Looks like tomorrow morning for Ice out. Had the 24th in the ice out contest some year. Does that count?

[trfour]

As the ice softens through the processes of melting and sublimation, it becomes slush, which is ice saturated with water, and along the cycle back to all water, it becomes a little heavier than water, and will slowly sink.


It's Okay fll, all O them loose screws in my brain cavity get lonesome on occasion Too...

[webmaster]

In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation (https://www.facebook.com/Emerson-Aviation-131847876851023/))

[jeffk]

In case anyone missed it here is why there was no Ice-Out yesterday. It should happen this morning. (photo by Emerson Aviation (https://www.facebook.com/Emerson-Aviation-131847876851023/))

It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.

[webmaster]

It's official! Ice-Out declared 4/24/19 at 5:24 am.

[tis]

It's comedic that all the ice is gathered around the Mount in Center Harbor. I can almost imagine a bunch of boats the previous night gathering all the remaining pieces of ice from around the lake and pushing them into place for this picture.

It is! Years ago that ice would not have impeded ice out from being declared.

[pondguy]

Beware of sunken ice in Center Harbor bay. :laugh:

[rsmlp]

I'm hoping my graph can be seen here. I took the Ice-Out dates from the historical list and calculated the average Ice-out date for each 10 period, starting with 1887-1896, and so on. It certainly shows a long term trend towards earlier and earlier ice outs.

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

[Pricestavern]

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

[luckypete]

Missed it by 37 hours and 9 minutes! HA

[webmaster]

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting.Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

[fatlazyless]

Beware of sunken ice in Center Harbor bay. :laugh:

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

[Barney Bear]

Perhaps the ice was gone before midnight on the 23rd (which was this old moth-eaten bear's guess). 🐻

[Bear Islander]

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

[MAXUM]

Each and every year, it's the same ice out there, on top of the lake. What happens is that ice sinks down to the bottom in April, and then the same ice re-surfaces back up in January.

Is the cycle of ice ...... been going on around here since 1621.

Is that a noodle assisted resurfacing?

[steve-on-mark]

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?Of course....they really wanted to take the Mayflower to Endicott Rock, not Plymouth Rock. They couldn't....iced in...

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[tis]

Also, different methods of determining Ice-Out have been used over the years since 1887.

That is SO true. Therefore the dates could vary easily!

[fatlazyless]

So... the Pilgrims had something to do with the "cycle of ice"?

Why yes, they did, not in an historical sense, but in a chronological sense. Prior to that winter back in 1621, there was no records kept, but starting on Feb 1, 1621, thy Pilgrims established an ice out cash lottery known as the Ice Cycle Lottery which quickly became known as the cash icicle.

[Descant]

Perhaps the ice was gone before midnight on the 23rd (which was this old moth-eaten bear's guess). 🐻

There used to be a raft in Weirs Bay with a flagpole that fell when the ice could not support it. That triggered a clock and an "after dark" ice out was possible. Now that we use a visual inspection, I don't think an after dark guess will win.

For the climate changers: 131 years ago there were no dock bubblers. 75 years ago, there were no dock bubblers. 50 years ago, only a few. Now, in some areas, you can't walk from shore to solid ice. Even islanders are using bubblers where not so long ago there was no electricity. Do such things affect the waters/ice? Perhaps not individually, but combined with other human activity...

[8gv]

Ice out has been declared but at the wrong date and time.

It should have been declared at 3pm on Monday as all the polls indicated it would.

I demand a recount, investigation and a do over!!!

[C-Bass]

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

[codeman671]

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

I haven't heard of anyone putting "heaters" in the lake to keep ice away? Circulators/bubblers of course, but don't think anyone is trying to heat the lake water to keep ice away.

[joey2665]

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol :D

[codeman671]

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol :D

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

[joey2665]

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

I absolutely agree. I hope the OP was joking.