2018 Ice Out Progress

[MikeF-NH]

Like many who begin getting anxious this time of year and check the webcams several times a day for "clues" of signs of a pending ice out...I am now on the constant web cam watch looking for the sign I find most telling. That sign is from the Black Cat cam where there is a set of rocks in the lower center of the shot. In general, when there is open water out to those rocks, we are on a two weeks to ice out phase. As open water begins...that shot becomes one of my focal points. To this point, there is NO open water even around the rocks telling me we definetly won't see ice out for the April 1 opener.

I'm wondering what others use to guage their ice out estimates and where they now think we are at. Are there any clues that recent rains and wind is accelerating our progress? Any hope for ice out in the first week or two of April???

The ice out watch has begun!

[sluggo]

I was out checking water depths this morning for a couple of jobs in and around the black cat island area and we have a firm 22 inches of ice on the lake. It may differ in other locations but not by much. My best guess at this point for ice out will be the first week of April.

[ishoot308]

Like many who begin getting anxious this time of year and check the webcams several times a day for "clues" of signs of a pending ice out...I am now on the constant web cam watch looking for the sign I find most telling. That sign is from the Black Cat cam where there is a set of rocks in the lower center of the shot. In general, when there is open water out to those rocks, we are on a two weeks to ice out phase. As open water begins...that shot becomes one of my focal points. To this point, there is NO open water even around the rocks telling me we definetly won't see ice out for the April 1 opener.

I'm wondering what others use to guage their ice out estimates and where they now think we are at. Are there any clues that recent rains and wind is accelerating our progress? Any hope for ice out in the first week or two of April???

The ice out watch has begun!

Based on what I have seen and experienced on the ice this year, I do feel the ice will go out much quicker than normal. For the past couple weeks old ice fishing holes are opening up to become 2’ - 4’ in diameter making the lake very unsafe to be out on without extreme caution. While this is a normal occurrence, it doesn’t usually happen as quickly as it happened this year. I believe there are a couple of factors that have caused this. The first is the lack of snow cover on the ice for most of the season. The suns rays have really been able to work deep inside the ice weakening it immensely. Digging a hole in the ice a week or so ago at my bob house I couldn’t believe how soft that 20” of ice was! The second reason I believe is the water in the lake is warming quickly. It doesn’t take much just a degree or two to really work at the ice from below and I believe that is happening.

I still think I will be at my Camp come April 1st just not sure if ice out will be declared by then...it will be close.

Dan

Here’s a pic of what the ice looks like today in the broads. Still has a ways to go but as you can see it’s getting that dark gray color....

[Shrimpbrain]

I always use LILY POND as an Ice Out Indicator. When Lily Pond starts to go, Ice out will be soon. When Ice is Totally off Lily Pond, Winnie will declared ICE-OUT within 7 or 8 days. Not 9 or 10, 7 or 8...

[Slickcraft]

I had picked April 10th for ice out, now it looks at least a week earlier than that. Large dark patches are forming meaning that the ice candles are forming. Each sunny day will melt more ice from the bottom up and the structure will weaken.


Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[LadyJane]

I was just wondering if there were still any fishing shanties out on the lake, like in Meredith Harbor, and is there a particular date that they have to be removed? I see from the photos that the ice is beginning to have that look. I appreciate the photos, thanks.

[GTO]

I was just wondering if there were still any fishing shanties out on the lake, like in Meredith Harbor, and is there a particular date that they have to be removed? I see from the photos that the ice is beginning to have that look. I appreciate the photos, thanks.

As of Saturday afternoon, I only saw one hut out in Ctr Harbor. All huts have been removed from Meredith Bay. Saw them tryiing to get one off the ice earlier in the week using a flat bed at the ramp in Meredith. They extended the ramp of the flatbed out as far as they could but there was still about 10 feet of water between the end of the ramp and edge of the ice. Even with all of the straps and chains, the
Hut literally became a "bob" house until they were able to somehow get it up and out.
Good news though, the ice looked pretty well cleaned off of trash.

[Hillcountry]

I was just wondering if there were still any fishing shanties out on the lake, like in Meredith Harbor, and is there a particular date that they have to be removed? I see from the photos that the ice is beginning to have that look. I appreciate the photos, thanks.

Bobhouses have to be off any lake by April 1st. I would imagine that means before midnight on March 31st! April fools!🤡

[MikeF-NH]

I still think I will be at my Camp come April 1st just not sure if ice out will be declared by then...it will be close.

Wow...I just requested to pick up my boat from storage on April 6 in hopes of spashing her on April 7. I may have to push that up a week if this prediction is true. I'm suprised how many are anticipating IceOut at the beginning of April given reports of 20" of ice. Can't imagine we lose 20" in just 24 days but I like the optimism. I'm hearing a major storm may hit Wed. If heavy snow...I'm hoping that may accelerate Ice Out by pushing the ice underwater but am thinking it could insulate it and slow the process.

[ishoot308]

Wow...I just requested to pick up my boat from storage on April 6 in hopes of spashing her on April 7. I may have to push that up a week if this prediction is true. I'm suprised how many are anticipating IceOut at the beginning of April given reports of 20" of ice. Can't imagine we lose 20" in just 24 days but I like the optimism. I'm hearing a major storm may hit Wed. If heavy snow...I'm hoping that may accelerate Ice Out by pushing the ice underwater but am thinking it could insulate it and slow the process.

Mike,

I think a storm with significant snowfall on Wednesday would be a game changer as it would definitely insulate and impede the thawing process by blocking the suns rays.

Usually I love and want snow but at this point I’m ready for open water and spring salmon!

Dan

[Eyeboat]

The warm weather really opened up the water near the shore around Cattle landing. open water extending a good 20 feet or more. It seemed like it happened in a matter of 3-4 days.

[Music Man]

Mike,

I think a storm with significant snowfall on Wednesday would be a game changer as it would definitely insulate and impede the thawing process by blocking the suns rays.

Usually I love and want snow but at this point I’m ready for open water and spring salmon!

Dan

Currently looks like 8"-12" of snow this Wednesday-Thursday.

Of course, they were also saying 3"-5", or 1"-3", or just rain... depending on what time you looked at the reports.


Salmon - yum!

[MAXUM]

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Travel will be very difficult to
impossible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches are
expected.


This would have been nice a couple months ago, now not so much.

[Hillcountry]

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Travel will be very difficult to
impossible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches are
expected.


This would have been nice a couple months ago, now not so much.

Gotta go and get more shear bolts for the snowblower...:(

[ishoot308]

Currently looks like 8"-12" of snow this Wednesday-Thursday.

Of course, they were also saying 3"-5", or 1"-3", or just rain... depending on what time you looked at the reports.


Salmon - yum!

Yup...could really screw up the early ice out I was hoping for!

Dan

[SAB1]

Good news. Fire up the sled.............:cheers:

[jeffk]

The thing is about snow this time of year, it is more of an annoyance. There are a lot of bare spots showing and a foot of snow will not be enough to groom or make the ice safe. The high temps after the storm are supposed to be around 40 for the next 5 days so melting will continue. Yeah, it might slow ice out a bit but no hard freeze is in the forecast. Accuweather only predicts one day through the end of March that will be below freezing for a high temp.

I have a dirt driveway and it is muddy now. The guy who plows will not be able to clear it fully because he would dig up the mud. So he will clear the upper layer and pack down the rest. All the rest will be slush the next day.

[Hillcountry]

The thing is about snow this time of year, it is more of an annoyance. There are a lot of bare spots showing and a foot of snow will not be enough to groom or make the ice safe. The high temps after the storm are supposed to be around 40 for the next 5 days so melting will continue. Yeah, it might slow ice out a bit but no hard freeze is in the forecast. Accuweather only predicts one day through the end of March that will be below freezing for a high temp.

I have a dirt driveway and it is muddy now. The guy who plows will not be able to clear it fully because he would dig up the mud. So he will clear the upper layer and pack down the rest. All the rest will be slush the next day.

Yes, my driveway is dirt as well. I plow wth a blade on my Kubota and will need to keep the blade lifted a few inches to avoid the muddy mess below. As you say, the snow will pack well.

[ishoot308]

So much for my hopeful thoughts of an early April ice out! With the snow cover we received yesterday and the upcoming 10 day forecast for lows in the teens and low to mid 20's, things are definitely not looking good!! Possibly more snow on Monday now too!!

Here is a pic from this morning

Sheesh!...

Dan

[Hillcountry]

It ain’t over til the fat lady sings, Dan!

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Congratulations....way to ruin another thread with your insatiable desire to inject politics into any topic!

[Hillcountry]

Congratulations....way to ruin another thread with your insatiable desire to inject politics into any topic!

No politics...just an old saying with a pic of a fat lady! First one that came up when I googled fat lady!
:D:D:D

[fatlazyless]

From the water temperature page, 39-degrees on March 6 is a lot warmer than other years, so what's warming up the water?

Is there a new nuclear power plant hidden away somewhere in Tuftonboro, that discharges warm water in the lake, or what?

[SAB1]

There were active water bars flowing water to the lake the weekend of the Winni Derby and they never refroze. Earliest I recall seeing them in many years.

[ishoot308]

From the water temperature page, 39-degrees on March 6 is a lot warmer than other years, so what's warming up the water?

Your right! ...The last time the temperature was this warm at this time of year was in 2012 and ice out occurred on March 23rd! This recent storm and upcoming colder weather is what will extend ice out unfortunately!! :(:(

Dan

[Rusty]

From the water temperature page, 39-degrees on March 6 is a lot warmer than other years, so what's warming up the water?

Is there a new nuclear power plant hidden away somewhere in Tuftonboro, that discharges warm water in the lake, or what?

Nuclear reactors don't discharge warm water, the cooling towers takes some of the steam/water vapor and turns it back into water. This water along with fresh water is fed back into the reactor and starts the process all over again.
You must of seen the big cooling towers near the reactor.

[lakershaker]

Nuclear reactors don't discharge warm water, the cooling towers takes some of the steam/water vapor and turns it back into water. This water along with fresh water is fed back into the reactor and starts the process all over again.
You must of seen the big cooling towers near the reactor.

Some nuclear plants have cooling towers, but others (like nearby Seabrook Station) don't. Seabrook has a massive tunnel going into the ocean (http://www.stripersonline.com/image_redirect.php?i=3580801) to cool the water.

From the picture link (https://goo.gl/images/v24ZQf), you can see - no tower! But, I don't think it is close enough to the lake to be the root cause ;)

[codeman671]

Nuclear reactors don't discharge warm water, the cooling towers takes some of the steam/water vapor and turns it back into water. This water along with fresh water is fed back into the reactor and starts the process all over again.
You must of seen the big cooling towers near the reactor.

Seabrook Station discharged warm water back into the ocean after the cooling process. There are intake and discharge lines that extend a few miles offshore. There used to be good fishing in that area :)

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236401710_The_Seabrook_Nuclear_Power_Plant_circula ting_water_intake_and_discharge_tunnels

Looks like someone beat me to it!

[SIKSUKR]

Some nuclear plants have cooling towers, but others (like nearby Seabrook Station) don't. Seabrook has a massive tunnel going into the ocean (http://www.stripersonline.com/image_redirect.php?i=3580801) to cool the water.

From the picture link (https://goo.gl/images/v24ZQf), you can see - no tower! But, I don't think it is close enough to the lake to be the root cause ;)

Your mostly right as Seabrook doesnt use cooling towers but it does have some as a backup for the unlikely evnt of an earthquake closing the intake tunnels.
From an article:
That step requires federal approval because the cooling tower is used as a failsafe in the event a major earthquake closes the tunnels that bring seawater into the plant to cool the reactor.

[ishoot308]

Good Lord!

4 degrees for a low on Saturday, 7 degrees for a low on Sunday, 9 degrees for a low on Monday, more snow on Wednesday and Thursday.... Being at my camp with an umbrella drink on April 1st is definitely out!! At this rate, I'm hoping to be out there May 1st!!! :eek::eek: I hate the month of March!!

Rant mode off...

Dan

[MikeF-NH]

I feel your pain Dan. I'm trying to find a silver lining in all this and it is: all this snow will insultate the ice someone from the frigid overnight temps this weekend and hopefully prevent ice GROWTH. Meanwhile, I'm hoping the ice is being eaten away from the water below. With higher sun and most daytime temps above freezing (except this weekend)...I've got hope that the ice is decaying everyday and that we still see ice out by mid-April (I'm a dreamer).

Boat pickup from storage is March 31....still dreaming....

[FamFire]

May not be able to get the boat in on 4/1, but should be able to cast a few lines.

[ishoot308]

May not be able to get the boat in on 4/1, but should be able to cast a few lines.

Where was the pic taken at??...

Dan

[MikeF-NH]

I drove by Massebessic today and was suprised that the entire west side looks wide open. The east side also looked mostly open with some ice in coves but in front of the park was wide open. I don't usually watch Massy as a sign for how close Winni is to ice out but have to imagine they can't be more than a few weeks apart.

Seeing the open water along the shorelines in the webcams in encouraging as it will give ice room to move in the wind and perhaps crack or weaken...though no signs of that on the big lake yet. I'm disappointed that a few cams are no longer functioning that were major indicators for me. One was Black Cat and the other was in Alton Bay. The remaining cams are not great for progress checking. I may have to take a drive around the lake next weekend.

[ishoot308]

I drove by Massebessic today and was suprised that the entire west side looks wide open. The east side also looked mostly open with some ice in coves but in front of the park was wide open. I don't usually watch Massy as a sign for how close Winni is to ice out but have to imagine they can't be more than a few weeks apart.

Seeing the open water along the shorelines in the webcams in encouraging as it will give ice room to move in the wind and perhaps crack or weaken...though no signs of that on the big lake yet. I'm disappointed that a few cams are no longer functioning that were major indicators for me. One was Black Cat and the other was in Alton Bay. The remaining cams are not great for progress checking. I may have to take a drive around the lake next weekend.

When I lived in Chester, Massy was my indicator and a great one! When ice was gone at Massy it was exactly two weeks for ice out on winni like clockwork. That is encouraging!

Dan

[rsmlp]

When I lived in Chester, Massy was my indicator and a great one! When ice was gone at Massy it was exactly two weeks for ice out on winni like clockwork. That is encouraging!

Dan

So you're forecasting ice out in 2 weeks? The lows for the next 10 days are all below freezing. I would think they have to be above freezing with highs considerably higher for ice out.

[Doobs41378]

So you're forecasting ice out in 2 weeks? The lows for the next 10 days are all below freezing. I would think they have to be above freezing with highs considerably higher for ice out.



Berlin was -21 this am without the windchill factor.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[ishoot308]

So you're forecasting ice out in 2 weeks? The lows for the next 10 days are all below freezing. I would think they have to be above freezing with highs considerably higher for ice out.

No I’m not as Mike only said ice was mostly gone but not all gone. There will probably be some refreezing with this cold weather. Once ice is ALL gone on Massy it’s has been my experience, or at least for a ten year span, that ice will be out on winni in two weeks thereafter...

Dan

[TiltonBB]

Seeing the open water along the shorelines in the webcams in encouraging as it will give ice room to move in the wind and perhaps crack or weaken...though no signs of that on the big lake yet.

Yes, it is encouraging that we are getting closer to summer. But, if you have docks on the lake the movement of the ice in the spring can cause major damage. Even if you run a circulator all winter the spring movement of multi ton icebergs can wipe out your dock or damage your waterfront in seconds.

That is discouraging! Been there and paid the price!

[fatlazyless]

If you have an ice eater, controlled by a timer/temperature switch, you may have been surprised yesterday afternoon, about 4-pm, when your ice eater powered up, splishy-splashy, for the first time in maybe two weeks.

What was not so small areas of open water, expanding like 'The Blob', has re-froze back to ice ..... could be this winter's last blast?

If I remember correct, the tropic of cancer for the Unites States, is located between Florida and Cuba, somewhere in the ocean out there; on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 at about 4-pm, the sun will be directly overhead at noon, with 12-hours daylight, and 12-hours night, and marks the start of the spring season by custom in the U.S.

[Eyeboat]

It may be cold outside but I am sweating bullets hoping my dock escapes damage

[Dickie B from HB]

If you have an ice eater, controlled by a timer/temperature switch, you may have been surprised yesterday afternoon, about 4-pm, when your ice eater powered up, splishy-splashy, for the first time in maybe two weeks.

What was not so small areas of open water, expanding like 'The Blob', has re-froze back to ice ..... could be this winter's last blast?

If I remember correct, the tropic of cancer for the Unites States, is located between Florida and Cuba, somewhere in the ocean out there; on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 at about 4-pm, the sun will be directly overhead at noon, with 12-hours daylight, and 12-hours night, and marks the start of the spring season by custom in the U.S.
When the sun is over the tropic of cancer the date is June 21, the start of summer. For the start of spring it is over the equator.

[RUGMAN]

picture from Doe point, Methodist circle.https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=13688&stc=1&d=1521399190

[Beauport]

There were still two bob houses on 19 or 20 mile bay over the weekend! :eek:

[Blue Thunder]

This is today's view from space once again showing the stark contrast between Winnipesaukee and Sebago which has a very large area of open water.

[SAB1]

There were still two bob houses on 19 or 20 mile bay over the weekend! :eek:

Yup one is my sons. Twenty two inches of solid ice there.

[TiltonBB]

Looks like it will be another few weeks!

[lakevet]

This is today's view from space once again showing the stark contrast between Winnipesaukee and Sebago which has a very large area of open water.Is there an explanation for the difference in ice between the Lakes? I'm surprised Sebago is so open.

Sent from my [device_name] using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Pineedles]

Lake sebago is very very deep.

[lakevet]

Lake sebago is very very deep.Thanks.
That satellite picture is remarkable.
Every other lake besides Sebago is ice.

Sent from my [device_name] using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[ishoot308]

Well I'm depressed...going by Lily Pond this morning it is still locked up tight! Even the shoreline is still solid as a rock not a speck of open water showing anywhere!!

From my vantage point overlooking the big lake it is still fully ice covered and solid. I see zero progress with ice melt over the last three weeks. The lake is snow covered and even most of the shoreline is still somewhat solid! This month of march really screwed us!

My umbrella drink on April 1st at my camp will only happen if I take an airboat out to Welch!!! Does that count??...:D

Dan

[tis]

Well I'm depressed...going by Lily Pond this morning it is still locked up tight! Even the shoreline is still solid as a rock not a speck of open water showing anywhere!!

From my vantage point overlooking the big lake it is still fully ice covered and solid. I see zero progress with ice melt over the last three weeks. The lake is snow covered and even most of the shoreline is still somewhat solid! This month of march really screwed us!

My umbrella drink on April 1st at my camp will only happen if I take an airboat out to Welch!!! Does that count??...:D

Dan

:mad: All we can do is hope for a sudden and long warm up starting in a few days. That could change everything. I don't think you are going to make April 1 though.

[Rusty]

Well I'm depressed...

My umbrella drink on April 1st at my camp will only happen if I take an airboat out to Welch!!! Does that count??...:D

Dan

Buy 30 large boxes of Cheez-its, eat one box a day for 30 days and your depression should go away.
If that doesn't do the trick than do it for another month but increase the dose to 2 boxes a day.
Good luck!

[ishoot308]

Buy 30 large boxes of Cheez-its, eat one box a day for 30 days and your depression should go away.
If that doesn't do the trick than do it for another month but increase the dose to 2 boxes a day.
Good luck!

Rusty;

Should I be wearing my Walmart "noodle" when doing this?? :eek::D

Dan

[Rusty]

Rusty;

Should I be wearing my Walmart "noodle" when doing this?? :eek::D

Dan

Only if it's pink.

[Merrymeeting]

The National Weather Service says it’s possible that the unseasonable weather will continue far into April. (No fooling.)

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/03/23/fooling-april-could-cold-wet-forecasters-say/C6ZCszDejdGwicZHdeaR6K/story.html

[ishoot308]

The National Weather Service says it’s possible that the unseasonable weather will continue far into April. (No fooling.)

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/03/23/fooling-april-could-cold-wet-forecasters-say/C6ZCszDejdGwicZHdeaR6K/story.html

That’s just not fair!:emb::emb:

[Rusty]

That’s just not fair!:emb::emb:

In 29 days you should feel better.

Dr. Rusty

[Top-Water]

The six weeks is up and, well, it appears winter is here to stay – at least, that's what one Pennsylvania sheriff's officer is saying after a fourth Nor'easter struck the East Coast.


https://www.wthr.com/article/sheriff-issues-warrant-for-punxsutawney-phil-after-spring-cold-snap


The suspect is described as "about 20 inches in length, 22 pounds, he has brown and gray hair, brown eyes, sharp teeth."


On a more serious note, thanks to "everyone" who is posting updates on what they are seeing around the lake as we wait for the ice to disappear.

[MAXUM]

Eh I give it three maybe four weeks. It's getting well above freezing every day, that over time will do the trick.

Just looks like we're in for an average late April ice out.

[SAB1]

I'm in the minority here. Winter is just to short. Love snow and the fun it brings.

[Blue Thunder]

Zero progress in a week......that is all....

[jeffatsquam]

Incredible day on the lake today. I love boating but this beats it hands down.

Bright sunshine, no humidity, hardly any wind, cobalt blue sky. no bugs or flies.

No captain bone heads. The sun was still high in the sky at 4pm. Didn't want to leave.

[8gv]

Zero progress in a week......that is all....

Why is Sebago Lake always ahead of Winni?

[Hillcountry]

Why is Sebago Lake always ahead of Winni?

Someone had said because Sebago is very deep...

[Merrymeeting]

Someone had said because Sebago is very deep...
It's also closer to the relatively "warm" ocean air.

[Water Camper]

Why is Sebago Lake always ahead of Winni?

Yes Sebago is dramatically deeper, but it is also spring fed !

Hope this helps,
Bill

[Biggd]

I'm in the minority here. Winter is just to short. Love snow and the fun it brings.I felt that way too, when I was about ten.:D

[Blue Thunder]

As the resident Sebago expert, the main reason it only completely freezes 2 out of every 10 years is the fact it has such a wide open expanse of water especially in the area of Big Bay. There is an area that is 315 feet deep but it still can and does freeze over. There were numerous nights of 25-30 below zero in early January. Big bay mostly froze over. The problem is the persistent wind downsloping from the higher elevations. It literally blows the ice off every day. I’ve had ten to fifteen foot high sheets of ice on my beach. Amazing phenomena at times. The lake has a 350 square mile watershed running into it. It is not predominantly spring fed and its proximity to the ocean is irrelevant.

[SIKSUKR]

I believe Sebago didnt freeze completely this year.

[joey2665]

Very interesting insight and information Blue Thunder. Thank you.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[ishoot308]

Not to depress anyone, but I have a friend who was ice fishing somewhere off Spindle Point this past weekend. He informed me that there was still 18" of solid ice there!!...:eek::eek:

I did see a few ATV's and snowmobiles traveling across the broads all weekend. While there may be plenty of ice, I have seen the size of some of the holes that have formed now covered by a little snow I certainly would not be out there!

Dan

[garysanfran]

I was on the deck discussing the, what looked like a still solid ice pack, with my brother. The wind picked up and got very strong. All of a sudden everything broke loose in a fury. Huge ice bergs traveling very fast. It was an amazing scene. I remember the news the next day said a lot of docks, left in with circulators, were destroyed.

[Rich]

Could it have been Candle Ice, or some other type of Rotten Ice?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candle_ice

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotten_ice

Things like this always makes me leery when someone says "It's safe, the Ice is 2 feet thick, this is more than enough to be safe!"

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

I own a condo on the "west-facing" shoreline of Weirs Beach, and I have a "Web-Cam" facing down the lake towards Meredith. Other than the shoreline being ice-free from the gas dock to about 100 yards out, and about 30 to 50 feet from the entire shoreline....the lake is solid ice all the way to Meridith. Looks like a good 2+ weeks till "ICE OUT"... Can't wait WINNIPESAUKEEBOB

[MikeF-NH]

trying to remain an optimist but I think Bob has the over/under on the nose at two weeks. I'm hoping we can trim a few days off that estimate. While cameras I use to mark some milestones (Alton Bay and Black Cat) are no longer online, I do see that on most web cams the snow cover has now melted from the ice allowing the "more directly overhead" sun to shine its intensity directly onto the ice and into the surface water below it. Sometimes things happen very fast once we are in this state as open water at edges allows for some ice movement such that some wind can cause things to begin to break up and move around. A good rain storm wouldn't hurt either. Next few days in 50s so I'm expecting visible progress. If anyone has a webcam link in Alton Bay...please post it.

[Blue Thunder]

I believe Sebago didnt freeze completely this year.
It did.....for two days.

[webmaster]

If anyone has a webcam link in Alton Bay...please post it.This is the only one I know of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM9_0q2Wkbg

[ishoot308]

Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th...

With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely!

Dan

[joey2665]

Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th...

With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely!

Dan

Dan you have this down to a science. :)

[8gv]

This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future.

When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office.

To clarify my position on that...

If nominated, I will not run.

If elected, I will not serve.

If re-elected, I will again, not serve.

Think I nailed it! :D

[MAXUM]

Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th...

With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely!

Dan

Massabesic is a pretty accurate 2 week indicator for the big lake. I agree somewhere around the third week of April is what it's looking like. However I have the first sign spring has arrived. From the wife's garden.

[ishoot308]

However I have the first sign spring has arrived. From the wife's garden.

There is hope!!!:):)

[ishoot308]

Dan you have this down to a science. :)

Before moving to Gilford a number of years ago, I lived in Chester and had to ride around Massabesic Lake every day to get to work. Being ever so anxious to get out on the island, I started counting the days from when I could see no ice whatsoever on Massy to when ice out was declared on Winni. It was 14 days like a watch almost every year.

Edited to add these pics I just took from Claire's landing at Massabesic. While the Manchester side of the Lake is wide open, the Auburn side still has some ice. Probably about 4 days worth left... Ice out on Winni will be the week of April 16th...

Dan

[MAXUM]

There is hope!!!:):)

I know it - first flower of the season means time to pull the commuter boat out of the back yard and get it fired up this weekend.

I still haven't gotten my '18 boat registrations back in the mail.

[Hillcountry]

Can’t wait!!

[ishoot308]

The edges of Lily Pond were just starting to give yesterday afternoon. :banana:

Dan

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Plenty of fog this morning on Winni. Temp at 42 and climbing. . Fog loves to "CHEW" on ice....I see lots of "CHUNK" ice breaking away at Weirs Beach area and foating down the Paugus Bay chanel near Thurston's Marina.

[pault842]

Solid ice here on Alton Bay with just a little open water around some docks. Sleds still out running over the bay 2 nights ago and again today:eek:. I guess someone knows the thin spots real well or perhaps they like to live dangerously.

[joey2665]

Solid ice here on Alton Bay with just a little open water around some docks. Sleds still out running over the bay 2 nights ago and again today:eek:. I guess someone knows the thin spots real well or perhaps they like to live dangerously.

Stupidity at its best. Is it really worth it if you end up going through the ice. I just do not understand people sometimes.

[Bootkie2]

Why wait for Ice Out? Apparently someone has a really bad case of Spring fever.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bg7IW2AnoKX/

[kawishiwi]

The edges of Lily Pond were just starting to give yesterday afternoon. :banana:

Dan

Speak to us about what that means for ice out oh great Ice-trodamus!

[ishoot308]

Speak to us about what that means for ice out oh great Ice-trodamus!

Well, it means Lily is finally starting to melt and when the ice is off Lily Pond we usually have one week to go on Winni...

[codeman671]

Sounds like a possible truck through the ice near Mark Island. Unreal.

[MikeF-NH]

I thought the truck that went through the ice in that area happened several weeks ago. Anyone with a truck on this ice at this point is trying to prove Darwin was right!

Ice has gotten awefully gray on many cams. While I down doubt there is still over a foot of ice in many spots I am betting the integrity of that ice is degrading quickly. Also see a few open fissures on Bear Cam toward Pine and possibly a fissure forming from an old pressure ridge from the camera pointed at Sheps. Rain should speed things even with the temps not helping much the next week or so. Picking up boat next week in hopes of being able to splash her on the 13th....yep Friday the thirteenth.

[codeman671]

Reports are that this is a new one. Airboat from tuftonboro is on the way. It's is on facebook. Gotta be true if it's on the internet!

[fatlazyless]

Say hey ..... I saw an air boat slowly going along the west side of Mark Island, on top of the ice, this evening at about 5:30 from a distance of about a mile away.

Was outside raking leaves, and heard the very loud, exhaust sound of a V8-engine with no muffler that goes with an airboat, so's I stopped raking to take a better look with the binoculars. It had some bright yellow panels in the area of the cage that encloses the front area of the large propeller in the stern of the vessel.

Thought ...... 'oh well' ...... and went back to raking the wet leaves .... gotta rake these old leaves!

On August 24, 2006, the Charlestown NH fire rescue inadvertently drowned 64-year old Virginia Cunningham, from Vermont, while transporting her on the Connecticut River in a flat bottom, air boat. Her injury requiring her to be transported was only an ankle injury, and she was drowned dead while secured in a stokes litter, in the bow of the rescue boat.

So's, how's about that ...... talk about a major boo-boo ...... whoopsie-doopsie ....... so sorry!

Whenever I hear the very loud exhaust of an air boat, I recall that 2006 drowning incident and think to myself, dang, that was not a happy ending for a rescue.

[raydoe1]

Getting back to ice-out progress!

There is still about 12 inches of ice at the beginning of Braun Bay in
front of Far Echo Harbor.

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Nick @ Thurstons' Marine put my "Toon" boat in the water @ Weirs chanel yesterday. I'll be up the lake on tuesday mornin, fishing.... YAAAAAAYYYY !!!!

Winnipesaukeebob :liplick:

[MAXUM]

Nick @ Thurstons' Marine put my "Toon" boat in the water @ Weirs chanel yesterday. I'll be up the lake on tuesday mornin, fishing.... YAAAAAAYYYY !!!!

Winnipesaukeebob :liplick:

Good luck, let us know what you get!

[SAB1]

Fished today out in front of 20 mile bay, 19 mile bay and whortleberry island. Good 20 inches of ice. Game wardens stopped by. They rode sleds from Alton up thru the broads past barbers pole to our area. Said the broads had consistent 10-12 inches of ice.

[tis]

Fished today out in front of 20 mile bay, 19 mile bay and whortleberry island. Good 20 inches of ice. Game wardens stopped by. They rode sleds from Alton up thru the broads past barbers pole to our area. Said the broads had consistent 10-12 inches of ice.

Did they check your license? On that show "North Woods Law" they ALWAYS check licenses! They seem to be more interested in "catching" somebody than helping. It's just the way they come across in that show. The Maine F&G don't seem to sneak around so much to catch people. Is that me or has anybody else noticed?

[Hillcountry]

Did they check your license? On that show "North Woods Law" they ALWAYS check licenses! They seem to be more interested in "catching" somebody than helping. It's just the way they come across in that show. The Maine F&G don't seem to sneak around so much to catch people. Is that me or has anybody else noticed?

I always thought just the opposite...then maine wardens are the sneakiest around. And it goes without saying, they check licenses every time in my experience.
What boggles my mind is them using snowmobiles this time of year...:eek:

[tis]

Interesting Hill. I have only seen a couple of them so maybe that's why. It just seemed to me that most of what they did was try to sneak up on somebody to see if they were hunting or fishing without a license.

[MAXUM]

So are you all actually complaining that the F&G is doing their job?!?

I for one hope they bust as many people as they can who don't or won't purchase a license. I've had my license checked by them while both hunting and fishing. These guys have always been super nice and I'm happy they do. If they have to use some quasi stealth tactics to catch people so be it, shouldn't care if you're doing it right and legal.

[Top-Water]

For those folks that keep an eye on Massabesic as an indicator for ice out on Winni.

Massabesic is 99.8 % open with a few boats on it yesterday. The only ice on it was some broken up wind blow ice stacked against the shore south of Claire's landing on RT 121. Very likely it will have no ice at all by tonight.


Thanks again everyone for all the different ice out reports.

[ishoot308]

For those folks that keep an eye on Massabesic as an indicator for ice out on Winni.

Massabesic is open with a few boats on it yesterday. The only ice on it was some broken up wind blow ice stacked against the shore south of Claire's landing on RT 121


Thanks again everyone for all the ice out reports.

Thanks for that report!....if All holds true we should now see ice out on Winni April 13 + or -

Dan

[Top-Water]

Thanks for that report!....if All holds true we should now see ice out on Winni April 13 + or -

Dan

I really hope you are correct ............ I picked April 14

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Hi;

one of my buddies went up to the Weirs Beach chanel this morning. There were about 20 guys fishing along the various docks on the chanel, and everyone was catching nice "Bows"

WINNIPESAUKEE BOB

[MikeF-NH]

I'm hoping the 13th estimate is spot on also. I have that day off and expect to spend the entire day trolling the big lake. Even if not officially declared Ice Out...I regularly am able to troll many areas in the week leading up to ice out so I expect to be on the lake on the 13th.

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Good luck, let us know what you get!

One of my buddies went up this am, and reported lots of nice rainbows and a few salmon were being caught in the Weirs Beach channel this am. About 20 guys were fishing the channel.

[Outdoorsman]

This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future.

When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office.

To clarify my position on that...

If nominated, I will not run.

If elected, I will not serve.

If re-elected, I will again, not serve.

Think I nailed it! :D

Before I can decide to NOT vote for you, I will need to know your position on a few more pressing issues.
......

Where do you stand on using noodles as a life saving device for snowmobilers

How often do you use a noodle as a rowing vessel

What is your position on using Emergency (specifically fire rescue) boats as a pickle ball court

How far do you drive for free coffee, internet or toilet paper

Can you build a M/S Mt. Washington II for under $6.00

........
As it stands right now, I am writing you in

[Hillcountry]

One of my buddies went up this am, and reported lots of nice rainbows and a few salmon were being caught in the Weirs Beach channel this am. About 20 guys were fishing the channel.

When you say “various docks” where exactly do you mean? Do the marinas allow fisherman to fish from their docks when they’re closed?

[kawishiwi]

So are you all actually complaining that the F&G is doing their job?!?

I for one hope they bust as many people as they can who don't or won't purchase a license. I've had my license checked by them while both hunting and fishing. These guys have always been super nice and I'm happy they do. If they have to use some quasi stealth tactics to catch people so be it, shouldn't care if you're doing it right and legal.

I agree with the point that this is F&G doing their job, and, I wish they did this a lot more often.
Also, it seems that much of what people complain about on this forum is basically "people being jerks while 'fill in the blank'". Boating, sledding, fireworks, etc. Many of those behaviors are also violations of rules & laws that are grossly under enforced. Yeah, yeah, I know some of you will complain about enforcement as "fun police", or bad "cus FREEDOM!" but most of these violations result in a loss of fun & freedom for those of us who are responsible in our various activities.

[Top-Water]

We will return to our regularly scheduled topic when a few photos of new open water get posted.

[kawishiwi]

We will return to our regularly scheduled topic when a few photos of new open water get posted.

Busted by the thread police! I didn't see you hiding there but I can assure you officer Topwater that I have a license but I left it at home....

[8gv]

Before I can decide to NOT vote for you, I will need to know your position on a few more pressing issues.
......

Where do you stand on using noodles as a life saving device for snowmobilers

How often do you use a noodle as a rowing vessel

What is your position on using Emergency (specifically fire rescue) boats as a pickle ball court

How far do you drive for free coffee, internet or toilet paper

Can you build a M/S Mt. Washington II for under $6.00

........
As it stands right now, I am writing you in


I have decided to skip tonight’s $1,000/plate campaign fundraiser in my honor.

I do think I may have nailed ice out though...:D

[Top-Water]

NH Boat Museum Hosts 2018 Ice-Out Celebration

http://newenglandboating.com/nh-boat-museum-hosts-2018-ice-out-celebration/

[sum-r breeze]

NH Boat Museum Hosts 2018 Ice-Out Celebration

http://newenglandboating.com/nh-boat-museum-hosts-2018-ice-out-celebration/

Do you think they know something we don't? Maybe they have some inside information from the weather gods? Inquiring minds woul love to know...:laugh:

The Breeze
Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back

[ishoot308]

Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two!

Wont be long!

Dan

[Hillcountry]

Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two!

Wont be long!

Dan

April 15th was my guess...hope it’s sooner though...

[Descant]

What about CrystlLake in Gilmanon? That is supposed to be a 10 day warning.
We really need a list of lakes and ice out dates for the last 50(?) years. Of course, if it gets too scientific, it loses the magic. No surprise that the Old Farmer's Almanac can predict weather but not ice out.
My grandfather used to race horses on Lake Champlain ice. Do they go through this agony every spring too?

[ishoot308]

Went by Lily Pond this morning and about 1/3rd of the pond still has ice on the north side. Should be all gone by Friday...

Dan

[MikeF-NH]

the rain has ice in many cams looking very dark gray. I am certain many areas still have over a foot of ice but the color is similar to what it looks like when we begin to see cracks or openings in the ice. Shoreline ice also appears to be receding very nicely at Weirs and West Alton.

Has anyone been by Alton Bay recently? Is the ice receded to past the gazebo yet? How far is it out at that location?

[Eyeboat]

I believe my guess was the 16th. Gonna be close.

[Chaos]

is clear from the bandstand to the bridge. I drove by this AM.

[Hillcountry]

Some brisk winds predicted which will help break up things!

[Top-Water]

:liplick: Thanks everyone for the reports and photos.

Looks like it won't be that much longer.

As mentioned previously, the wind might put a big dent in it tonight.

[8gv]

I have been searching for the link to all the ice out guesses with no luck.

Can somebody please post it?

Thanks!

[Senter Cove Guy]

I have been searching for the link to all the ice out guesses with no luck.

Can somebody please post it?

Thanks!

Check it out here: https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout

[8gv]

Thanks!

My guess is still looking good!

I got my ice out training as a youth guessing the pond at J.B.Williams Park. ;)

[Senter Cove Guy]

Thanks!

My guess is still looking good!

I got my ice out training as a youth guessing the pond at J.B.Williams Park. ;)

You've got the right hour, just not the right date. :)

[Slickcraft]

Lily Pond: There is just a small amount of ice left today in the north corner. Less than one sixth of the pond.

Last year the ice on Winnie went real fast after Lily was clear. However as I recall it was quite a bit warmer then.

Today's view from Belknap point shows mostly ice. There looks to be open water extending south a ways from Welch.

[Shrimpbrain]

Ice out will be April 13th at 11:47 am.

[Hillcountry]

I didn’t catch the entire bit, but Lily Pond was on the WMUR news this morning.
Must have been related to Winni ice out...anyone catch that?

[Chaos]

The story was about Ice Out and Emerson Aviation. Showed Lily pond ice from Emerson's photos yesterday.

[8gv]

So what is the prize this year?

Another new F250 like last year?

[Descant]

Did an F250 go through the ice again this year? That is where the prize comes from, right?

[Outdoorsman]

I am guessing ice will not be out by 11:10 an tomorrow :(

[SAB1]

Typically ten days after lily pond but last Saturday we fished on twenty inches of ice so that will take a bit longer than the thirteenth

[MAXUM]

Not to depress anyone but Emerson Aviation did a fly over yesterday and it's still looking real solid out there.

https://www.facebook.com/131847876851023/videos/1669287399773722/

[Grady223]

[emoji22]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[joey2665]

Forecast doesn’t look to promising to accelerate the process either. Temps many nights still below freezing. The only hope is the rain they are predicting for Tuesday and Thursday


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[8gv]

https://youtu.be/F2bgZ4PTGhYThese guys may be able to help.

The action starts around 2:00.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F2bgZ4PTGhY?start=140" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

https://youtu.be/F2bgZ4PTGhY

[Paugus bay girl]

Maybe time to just take up a winter sport, as winter seems to have prevalence over summer weather the last few years.

[ishoot308]

These cold nights (low 20's) have really really put a damper on any ice melt. Very little if any progress in the last few days...so much for fishing this upcoming weekend!!:emb::emb::emb:

Dan

[Biggd]

I want to do some yard work and I still have huge piles of snow.:(

[Top-Water]

I want to do some yard work and I still have huge piles of snow.:(

Me too ...... all the more reason to go fishing.

These cold nights (low 20's) have really really put a damper on any ice melt. Very little if any progress in the last few days...so much for fishing this upcoming weekend!!:emb::emb::emb:

Dan

I was also thinking a few weeks back that "maybe" Ice-Out would come a little eary this year.

Out of curiosity. Anyone know When squam usually gives up all or most of its ice to get some fishing in.

Is it a few days ahead or behind of winnie?

[Beauport]

I drove around much of Squam yesterday and it looked totally socked in. No idea what the ice thickness is, but to my eye, it looked like it was behind Winni.

Jim

[Top-Water]

@ Beauport

Thanks for the squam lake ice information ;)

[Slickcraft]

The view today from Belknap Point is essentially the same as 5 days ago. All ice except for a small area off south Welch.

Our Eastern is in the water at Fay’s and Smith Cove is mostly open so I suppose we could do laps around the cove ☹️


Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[Paugus bay girl]

Lily Pond is ICE FREE. 10 days. I'm thinking April 19th. Typical 3rd week of April Ice out.

[MikeF-NH]

Chaos, any updated pictures from Alton Bay? I'm hoping for ice to pull back to Sandy Point and I will be on the water Friday. I think it would take a small miracle. A nice start would be rain and no snow from tomorrows front. We get 50s and 60s the rest of the week around my neck of the woods but nighttime temps just aren't low enough to sustain rapid melting. Only hope is those warming waters coming into the Bay.

[Chaos]

Sorry, nothing new. I won't be up again until my boat is unwrapped and I start the multi-day polish and wax before launch. My guess, with the weather we've had, it's not much past the bandstand since I took that picture last week. Ugggh!

[upthesaukee]

Chaos, any updated pictures from Alton Bay? I'm hoping for ice to pull back to Sandy Point and I will be on the water Friday. I think it would take a small miracle. A nice start would be rain and no snow from tomorrows front. We get 50s and 60s the rest of the week around my neck of the woods but nighttime temps just aren't low enough to sustain rapid melting. Only hope is those warming waters coming into the Bay.

There are narrow openings along the shoreline, and from the bridge it is still open only just barely post the bandstand.

Dave

[Taz]

Lily Pond now 100% ice free. How long after Lily Pond is ice free does Winni usually declare ice out? Is it typically 2 weeks?

[ishoot308]

Lily Pond now 100% ice free. How long after Lily Pond is ice free does Winni usually declare ice out? Is it typically 2 weeks?

Lily Pond was ice free a few days ago....usually one week later for Winni but doubt that will happen this year. It seems all usual indicators will be way off. Mother Nature proving she is still Queen!!:cool::cool:

[Paugus bay girl]

Lily Pond was ice free a few days ago....usually one week later for Winni but doubt that will happen this year. It seems all usual indicators will be way off. Mother Nature proving she is still Queen!!:cool::cool:

I wore my flip flops today, screw it. I don't care how cold it is, I refuse to wear anymore winter stuff till next winter. I put away all the boots, jackets, and shovels. It's flip flops, sneakers, and hoodies now.

[ishoot308]

I wore my flip flops today, screw it. I don't care how cold it is, I refuse to wear anymore winter stuff till next winter. I put away all the boots, jackets, and shovels. It's flip flops, sneakers, and hoodies now.

That sounds like an awesome plan to me! Count me in! Maybe Mother Nature will get the hint!:):)

Dan

[8gv]

As I was putting my snow shovels and snow pullers away this evening it started to snow.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrr!

[Paugus bay girl]

As I was putting my snow shovels and snow pullers away this evening it started to snow.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrr!

I walked in the snow thru my front yard with flip flops on to my car,about an inch, didn't care.

[jeffk]

I only put ONE of my snow shovels away. :D

I live next to a pond in Center Harbor and usually it is thawed a little before Winnipesaukee has ice out. It is still solidly iced in.

The 10 day forecast is for cooler than normal temps and quite a bit of cloudiness. There is some heavy rain forecast for over the weekend but the temps won't be above mid 40's so I don't think it will help that much. The long range forecast predicts we won't break into a weeks of 50/60 degree highs until the week after next.

I think progress will be slow.

[Merrymeeting]

The good news is if you check the water temps, the ice must be eroding from below. Trexler site https://www.trexlers.com/lake-winnipesaukee-live-feed, shows temps approaching and sometimes exceeding 38, which typically is the magic tipping point for ice-out melting.

The water temps posted on this site seem to be high, but overall increasing.

[MAXUM]

Hey 50-60 degrees may not seem terribly warm, but it's still 18-28 degrees north of freezing and that's not nothing!

With all the ice pull back from around the shore line once this stuff starts to move around it will actually begin to destroy itself and anything in it's path if the wind is kicking at a good clip.

I think we're less than a week out.

[JasJackson]

If you check the camera and time lapse for Flightcraft, you can see how much the ice melted away from the shore just today...:D

https://flightcraft.lakehost.net/index.php/webcam/

[dt5150]

glendale today. it's gettin there...

[MikeF-NH]

anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

[upthesaukee]

anyone with eyes on Alton Bay....any chance ice is out to Sandy point by tomorrow morning???

Yesterday, the ice was maybe 20 yards beyond the bandstand. Ice along the shoreline is redeeming but not fast. I think it is unlikely, but you never know...

Better idea tonight, maybe.

Dave

[rsmlp]

So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

[Igione]

I live on Rust Pond and this morning there was still a good 3 inches of ice about 2 feet from the shore. The top is getting mushy which is a good sign. But other than that, the rest of the lake is solid.
Since Rust Pond is just a few 'blocks' from South Wolfeboro Bay, it's not looking great for ice out before the 23rd at best for us.

[steve-on-mark]

So based on latest info/data, what's best guess for ice out now?

April 22nd @ 1:15 p.m.! :)

[Grady223]

Water temp was 42 degrees Monday. Won’t be long.

[AC2717]

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now

[steve-on-mark]

April 23rd 10:22am is the best looking time as of now
Don't even think about stealing my thunder!

[webmaster]

Today's update from Emerson Aviation:

This mornings flight showed very little difference from Monday. Still no appreciable open water, including the Broads. Stay tuned.

[CoastalWx]

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

[MAXUM]

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

[rsmlp]

Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...:rolleye1:

[C-Bass]

Twenty mile bay is getting there..

[C-Bass]

Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

[CoastalWx]

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

[sum-r breeze]

From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak.

The Breeze
Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

[ishoot308]

The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left.

Dan

[ishoot308]

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

And possibly a lot of the east facing docks.
Winds will be out of the E., then ENE.
For Paugus Bay that means South Down and Long Bay are in the cross hairs.

[jeffatsquam]

10 minutes and counting for my guess. Theres always next year.

[8gv]

So the ice will be off tomorrow as I have predicted but...

the weather will be inappropriate for flying so it will not be seen until a few days later.

:mad:

[CoastalWx]

Going to be a little while. Today in the 20s, and should not be too windy tomorrow. The heavy rain will help, but it will take time to break it up.

[ishoot308]

Today's wind has definitely started things moving. The are now very large areas of cracked ice I can see between Welch and Ellacoya with water between them. The open water on the southern side of Welch has definitely extended as well!

Not sure I want to see the ice starting to go out with this crazy wind as I feel a lot of dock destruction would occur.

Dan

[SplendidSplinter9]

Has anyone seen the conditions at Silver Sands boat launch?

[Slickcraft]

After yesterday's strong wind I had expected to see the ice broken up between Belknap Point and Welch. Not so:(

The open water south of Welch has expanded a small amount and there is a bit of open off the west side of Welch. Other than that, ice ice ice crap.

[chasedawg]

curious...when was the latest ice out ever recorded? Just got back from spending the winter in Florida. Now getting out of here heading to the BVI's taking folks sailing. Hope when we come back May 1 the ice will be gone. Not sure after yesterday and seeing all the ice out there.

[daveschappell]

Looks like May 12, 1888!

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout

[Eyeboat]

My boat is supposed to hit the water May 12th, maybe I should reschedule:confused:

[8gv]

Maybe we can redirect the panels from a local solar farm to reflect sunlight onto the ice.

That would melt it!

Wait, that requires sunshine...

nevermind! :(

[Merrymeeting]

It'll start going fast after this weekend. The forecast shows many sunny days with temps in the more seasonal/higher range. Most importantly, the temps will stay above freezing at night for several nights in a row.

[AC2717]

Anyone able to give an update on Paugus Bay?
wanted to put the lifts in this weekend

[JADAQ]

Edges on paugus Bay are way out, some spots 30-40 feet.
Still a bunch of ice in the middle but going fast!

[Hillcountry]

Anyone able to give an update on Paugus Bay?
wanted to put the lifts in this weekend

As evidenced by the previous post...this morning at Paugus

[Old Sarge]

My boat is supposed to hit the water May 12th, maybe I should reschedule:confused:

I would think that you will be fine on May 12th (I am also getting my boat on the 12th-the day MVYC starts valet!). When you do hit the water , early in the year, you may want to keep a look-out for floating debris (ie logs, sticks and pieces of peoples docks etc.).

[8gv]

Last fall I told Irwin to splash my boat 4/15.

They know I have no place to put it until our mooring is in.

When the mooring is in place I can ask for my boat and they will have it ready in a day or two. Last year it was four hours after the call.

They have been very good to me.

[AC2717]

As evidenced by the previous post...this morning at Paugus

thank you and JADAQ as well, hoping those big sheets break up or melt by the weekend too much risk losing the lifts if those are still there, we are right in line with the normal wind this time of the year for damage

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

HI FOLKS;

I have just activated a " LIVE" WEB CAM at my condo adjacent to WEIRS BEACH, Laconia. It faces NW down the bay to Meridith. The "Flightcraft" GAS DOCKS are to the left, and SPINDLE POINT to the right. The WEIRS CHANNEL/THURSTON'S MARINE is 200 yds to the left. Pic of my condo is below.

If you wish to access my "LIVE" WEB Cam, I am attaching the address for "PUBLIC USE:)" JUST "CLICK" ON THIS LINK .....

https://video.nest.com/live/cfVEpKU9JY

OR, you can "copy and paste"..

Please let me know, if all goes well????

THX WINNI BOB :)

[webmaster]

If you wish to access my Cam, I am attaching the address for "PUBLIC USE:)".

https://video.nest.com/live/tujKmhO0eW

Here's what I get:

This camera is missing in action.
It may no longer be available for public viewing.

[Slickcraft]

Today Alton Bay is open up to about 1/2 mile north of Sandy Point.

Also there is a narrow strip of water extending from Belknap Point Road to the south end of Welch; plus other small openings between Welch and Ellacoya.

[dt5150]

wow... i can't believe how slow it's going this year :look:

hurry up and melt will ya! i need to go fishin!!!

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

Here's what I get:

This camera is missing in action.
It may no longer be available for public viewing.

I got IT fixed
BOB

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

HI FOLKS:

I Decided to hook up my "LIVE WEB CAM" to the internet, so "click on the link", and you can get a look down the bay from WEIRS BEACH to MERIDITH BAY. I made it password free, so everyone can see what I see from my front porch.

https://video.nest.com/live/cfVEpKU9JY

The view is from my condo, which is about 300 yards from the Weirs Beach looking down the bay NW to Meridith... "Spindle Point" is off to the right. As you can see, the ice is getting farther out each day. The sun sets on the left..

I have over 50 years with my family from this location. So, now, you all can enjoy my view as often as you like.

The firrst picture, below, is a grouper which I caught in florida, but the rest of pics are me and friends at Winni. Sorry fot a couple of upside down and sideways pics, but the is due to picture size that the Winni Forum can't correct.

ENJOY

WINNIPESAUKEEBOB

[daveschappell]

nice cam! (and great photos!)

[Hillcountry]

Very nice Bob! Did you change the view? Seems like earlier today it was a much wider angle shot up the lake...a small suggestion; perhaps you could center the camera in a window so the frame isn’t in the picture!

[joey2665]

Love it Bob. Thank you!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[depasseg]

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

[AC2717]

love that view more than the others, no ice!!

[AC2717]

Do my eyes deceive me on the Anchor Marine cam, a boat and does not look like there is any ice in the bay?

can anyone in person confirm from Xmas island south to Lakeport if there is any ice?

i might be able to drop the lifts in

[Hillcountry]

Do my eyes deceive me on the Anchor Marine cam, a boat and does not look like there is any ice in the bay?

can anyone in person confirm from Xmas island south to Lakeport if there is any ice?

i might be able to drop the lifts in

Your eyes are deceiving you! Today’s Anchor cam shows the ice a bit further out but still present!

[AC2717]

Your eyes are deceiving you! Today’s Anchor cam shows the ice a bit further out but still present!

dam, an earlier photo was not as clear as that one. Good chance could be a non factor this weekend though

hahahaha look at me holding onto hope with a wing and a prayer

[MAXUM]

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

There is also a little bit of a "current" for lack of better description that is moving water through that area and under the LI bridge so that water isn't exactly stagnant.

Also it remains relatively shallow quite a distance out from the NWZ marker for at least another 300 yards it's still only 15 to 20 feet deep towards 5 mile IS and the entrance to Braun Bay. Even then it drops off pretty slow. The same is true on the opposite side of the LI Bridge, got to get beyond the little island and first black marker before the bottom starts to show any depth beyond 15 feet.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

dam, an earlier photo was not as clear as that one. Good chance could be a non factor this weekend though

hahahaha look at me holding onto hope with a wing and a prayer

Here's one from the other end...

[ishoot308]

In my best Scotty voice...”She’s breaking up Captain!!

Huge swaths of open water between Welch Island and Belknap Point! Many large open cracks in the broads. Won’t be long now. Dropping my boat in the water today!!Woo hoo! Pic below...

Dan

[Grady223]

Strong NW wind, sun through the weekend and 60s Monday and Tuesday should move things along quickly. Hoping to get out to Barndoor Wednesday or Thursday. 🤞


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Slickcraft]

In my best Scotty voice...”She’s breaking up Captain!!

Huge swaths of open water between Welch Island and Belknap Point! Many large open cracks in the broads. Won’t be long now. Dropping my boat in the water today!!Woo hoo! Pic below...

Dan

Yes significant change from 2 days ago. We should be able to get to Welch by Sunday. Also looking out from Ames Farm a lot has opened toward Diamond and Rattlesnake.

[AC2717]

Here's one from the other end...

PBFF, what's up my man!!! Long time
I'll be on the Blueberry snagging bass out of your area before you know it.

How's it look today, think i can get away with putting the pwc and fishing boat lift in tomorrow afternoon without the ice beating them up?

[nj2nh]

We have a security cam pointed out at Alton Bay towards Little Mark and have been watching the ice inch out. However, I swear it looks like the open area has refrozen. Is the ice moving or could parts have frozen in? I would post a photo but the app will not let me.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

PBFF, what's up my man!!! Long time
I'll be on the Blueberry snagging bass out of your area before you know it.

How's it look today, think i can get away with putting the pwc and fishing boat lift in tomorrow afternoon without the ice beating them up?

Hey Alex... Inch’pes yes!

It looks like rotting candle ice to me. Just not sure about the wind pushing it into your area. Winds out of the NW are not great for that part of Paugus.

It's always worth a shot and as you know conditions can change quickly this time of year. What is open area can get clogged with ice quickly.

I'll be bass fishing as soon as the lake warms a bit..50 degrees is always my magic number.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

For anyone new to the lake during the thaw, I made this video to show what "candle ice" looks like. Pretty self explanatory as the ice looks like a bunch of candles when you take them out of the water.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X5u3nGRCDe4" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

https://youtu.be/X5u3nGRCDe4

[JMR]

A friend was just at Ames Farm and said it is open out to Diamond and possibly to the tip of Rattlesnake. We are planning to be on Rattlesnake no later than Sunday and possibly tomorrow. Echo Shores cam looks as if skim of ice from there to Sleeper

[AC2717]

Hey Alex... Inch’pes yes!

It looks like rotting candle ice to me. Just not sure about the wind pushing it into your area. Winds out of the NW are not great for that part of Paugus.

It's always worth a shot and as you know conditions can change quickly this time of year. What is open area can get clogged with ice quickly.

I'll be bass fishing as soon as the lake warms a bit..50 degrees is always my magic number.

thanks man, as long as it is candle ice I think the lifts would be fine out there, i was worried about if it was big sheets, boat and pwc wont go in for a few weeks, but this was really only other weekend to do it

[Slickcraft]

The sheet of ice between Belknap Point and Welch was blown south mid morning; currently open out to Welch. I heard from a very reliable source that a boat is already over there.

There is still ice to the north and south of the route to Welch. We plan an early morning trip out tomorrow if moving ice does not close back in.

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

We have a security cam pointed out at Alton Bay towards Little Mark and have been watching the ice inch out. However, I swear it looks like the open area has refrozen. Is the ice moving or could parts have frozen in? I would post a photo but the app will not let me.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

HI nj;

I have just posted a reply, but I think it went to the webmaster, so to answer your question, Yes, the winds will move the ice around, easily, this time of year,... Once we get a southerly wind-flow from the northeast, the ice chunks will flow right down through the Weirs channel and smash into every dock on the way through. That's why there is a barge right next to our jetty/docks as seen on my web cam. it's repairing last-years damage.

That's why you see so many of the docks on the east side of Paugus Bay have their docks "LIFTED" for the winter.....they have been destroyed too many times. Those that don't lift the docks, are supporting the guys who operate the barges.

Winni Bob

[ishoot308]

Made it out to the camp on Welch today!

Fishing tomorrow!

Life is good!

[Hillcountry]

Made it out to the camp on Welch today!

Fishing tomorrow!

Life is good!


Life is good! I’m jealous! Good luck out there and post what you catch!

[bclaker]

Made it out to the camp on Welch today!

Fishing tomorrow!

Life is good!

Good Luck!!!

[upthesaukee]

The sheet of ice between Belknap Point and Welch was blown south mid morning; currently open out to Welch. I heard from a very reliable source that a boat is already over there.

There is still ice to the north and south of the route to Welch. We plan an early morning trip out tomorrow if moving ice does not close back in.

There is no bad side here. If the ice comes back while you are out there, oh well... stranded in heaven:) .

Enjoy.

Dave

[Slickcraft]

There is no bad side here. If the ice comes back while you are out there, oh well... stranded in heaven:) .



Enjoy.



Dave



Good point Dave. Checked the boat out this afternoon and we plan to go over in the morning.

Alan


Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)

[SteveO123]

Watching Opechee go now... only hours left! Winni is usually 2 days later. BRING IT ON!!

13785

[Grady223]

There is no bad side here. If the ice comes back while you are out there, oh well... stranded in heaven:) .



Enjoy.



Dave



Or crushed boat. [emoji33]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[tis]

That's what I was thinking, Grady!!

[MikeF-NH]

Looking forward to your report Dan. I thought I was an early season risk taker but you have definitely set the bar by getting out to Welch literally just as the ice opened a small path. I decided to wait one more day and get out Sunday. Less windy and another day for the ice to melt and blow out of areas I might launch.

[ishoot308]

Looking forward to your report Dan. I thought I was an early season risk taker but you have definitely set the bar by getting out to Welch literally just as the ice opened a small path. I decided to wait one more day and get out Sunday. Less windy and another day for the ice to melt and blow out of areas I might launch.

Tons of open water out there today Mike, at least around Welch. It’s pretty much clear from Locke’s Island to Diamond Island.

It was slow fishing as we only landed three but it was great to get out and wet a line!

Dan

[Hillcountry]

Tons of open water out there today Mike, at least around Welch. It’s pretty much clear from Locke’s Island to Diamond Island.

It was slow fishing as we only landed three but it was great to get out and wet a line!

Dan

Nice! I’m even more jealous now...

[Slickcraft]

We did get to Welch this morning traveling along the edge of ice to the north. The last 200' to our dock was iced in as a large sheet had blown in from the north. So we docked 300' south at a neighbors dock, 1st photo. The 2nd photo is our dock sans boat.

It looked clear southward to about Rattlesnake with what looked like ice east of Rattlesnake. Driving by Ames Farm it was clear "almost" to Diamond and northwest Rattlesnake. Looked like some ice along the west shore. Still lots of ice between mainland and mid to south Rattlesnake. A lot will happen quickly today, the ice is moving and melting.


A sign at Pop's says opening May 5th:D

Alan

[nj2nh]

Watching on my webcam from halfway down Alton Bay. All I see is ice towards Little Mark but it is definitely changing color. Much grayer this afternoon than it was even this morning! Fascinating to watch.


13789

[WINNIPESAUKEEBOB]

HI FOLKS:

ICE is black and mushey at Weirs Beach to Meridith....Wind is pushing it to the northeast shore(Meridith Neck) and Governors Island.A good Northeasterly wind will push it back towards Weirs and through the Weirs channel....then it's gone.

click on my "LIVE" WEB CAM LINK....... https://video.nest.com/live/cfVEpKU9JY

Winni Bob

[MAXUM]

Made it out to Bear today from Sheps, what's left of the ice between there and the post office is mush, but decided to go around loon island which was all cleared of ice. Ice was receding fast as the wind was creating a little chop which was chewing up the leading edge pretty good. By the end of tomorrow I would not be surprised if that entire area is open all the way down past Cattle landing.

On the other side of bear, it's locked up with some pretty decent ice still but over the course of the day the sun was taking it's toll on it. It still seemed pretty solid though and about 7-8" thick with mush on top.

Clear from Y Landing out to Bear as well. Beware the ice has taken out or shifted around markers out there.

Beautiful day to be out.

[MDoug]

Made it out to Bear today from Sheps, what's left of the ice between there and the post office is mush, but decided to go around loon island which was all cleared of ice. Ice was receding fast as the wind was creating a little chop which was chewing up the leading edge pretty good. By the end of tomorrow I would not be surprised if that entire area is open all the way down past Cattle landing.

On the other side of bear, it's locked up with some pretty decent ice still but over the course of the day the sun was taking it's toll on it. It still seemed pretty solid though and about 7-8" thick with mush on top.

Clear from Y Landing out to Bear as well. Beware the ice has taken out or shifted around markers out there.

Beautiful day to be out.

Thanks, Maxum!

[Kings Bluff]

Watching on my webcam from halfway down Alton Bay. All I see is ice towards Little Mark but it is definitely changing color. Much grayer this afternoon than it was even this morning! Fascinating to watch.


13789
No ice at the north end of Alton Bay! Check it out at www.winnipesaukeecam.com

[Island Girl]

In case you are wondering how the iceout progress is around the lake, go here:
http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/watch.htm

You can view many webcams at once. Scroll down and there are links to live video cams as well.

Some cams are not displaying. If you are the owner please let us know the status or link if it has changed.

Welch Island Cam
Erika’s Cam
Faithaven Cam

Thanks
IG

[Moccasin]

Thank you Island Girl! :):laugh::)

[gokart-mozart]

Ice went out overnight 4/20-4/21 after breaking up in the wind all day.

[Dad sold the C * C]

Middle of Winnisquam is getting close. Looking east just south of Pot island




Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=92687)