Ice-Out Guess Contest Underway

[webmaster]

<p align="center"><a href="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2012/" target = "_blank"><img border="0" src="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2012/iceout.jpg" width="407" height="74"></a></p><p align="center"><font face="Arial">The <b>2012 winnipesaukee.com Ice-Out Guess Contest</b><br>is now accepting guesses through February 29, 2012.<br>
<font color="#333333">The winners will be posted here shortly after Ice-Out is declared.</font></font></p><p align="center"><font face="Arial" color="#333333"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2012">Click here to view the guesses or submit your guess</a>.</font></p><p align="center"><font color="#333333" face="Arial"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout">Click Here</a> for last year's Ice-Out announcement and over 100 years of Ice-Out dates.</font></p><P align="center"><font face="Arial"><A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2011" target = "_blank">2011 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2010" target = "_blank">2010 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2009" target = "_blank">2009 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2008" target = "_blank">2008 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2007" target = "_blank">2007 Contest</A><br><A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2006" target = "_blank">2006 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2005" target = "_blank">2005 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2004" target = "_blank">2004 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2003" target = "_blank">2003 Contest</A> | <A HREF="http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2002" target = "_blank">2002 Contest</A>
</font>

[Formula]

How about next Tuesday

[VitaBene]

I did not know it came in!

[Bear Island South]

I did not know it came in!

From Post #157 of the Ice-in thread dated 1/24/12

Ice In...for now

Good Morning to Everyone,
Having just signed on this would be my first time posting a forum for all to read. This past Sunday I declared "Ice in" on the big lake. While we have not been out yet today I would not be surprised that the areas that were last to freeze Saturday night and Sunday in the Broads were to reopen today with temps in the 40's and Sunshine. Not to worry for those Ice enthusiast, It will return as the winter progresses.

[fatlazyless]

March 24, 2011 was the first day last year when the water temperature at the Lakeport Dam got up to 36-degrees, and this year 2012, the 36-degree temperature was first reported yesterday, on February 1, 2012.

Sounds like some heap biggum warmer water to me, and I expect the whole lake to turn into a big slushy grey mess within two weeks or something like that! So's, that's a difference of over seven weeks time looking at March 24 vs. February 1 ..... probably has something to do with 2012 being a NH presidential primary election year that was all loaded up with hot air.

[HomeWood]

Good gravy, just let us just enjoy the fishing derby first!

[Island Girl]

We finish giving the guesses... FLL is right... the lake temp jumped up a degree to 36.

Warm up those boats, don't uncover the snowmobiles!

IG :D

[Fiddlin']

It will be the earliest ever, I believe. I'm guessing first day of Spring.

[Bear Island South]

It will be the earliest ever, I believe. I'm guessing first day of Spring.

I like the sound of that, only 38 more days until spring.

[Merrymeeting]

What happens if we have ice-out before the guesses close? ;)

(just kidding...we have a LONG way to go. But these Feb temps are something!)

[webmaster]

What happens if we have ice-out before the guesses close? ;)I've thought about that possibility but I doubt everything would be open by then. If it looks like that may happen I'll probably suspend the guessing period early. It certainly has been a strange winter.

[Merrymeeting]

I don't think we need to worry about it until the nights start staying above or near to freezing. Even with these temps, much of what is lost during the day reforms at night.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

I've thought about that possibility but I doubt everything would be open by then. If it looks like that may happen I'll probably suspend the guessing period early. It certainly has been a strange winter.

It certainly has been a very strange winter. Better get my guess in quickly! :D

The ice is not looking very safe!

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Winnipesaukee/Capture2-17-2012-32607PM.jpg?t=1329510416
WeirsCam (http://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=weirscam)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Winnipesaukee/Capture2-21-2012-112801AM.jpg?t=1329841988
MODIS (http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2012_02_13_044&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA4&resolution=250m) (Last clear day before post - 2-12-12)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Winnipesaukee/Capture2-17-2012-34046PM.jpg?t=1329511281
Minge Cove Webcam (http://www.mingecovecam.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Winnipesaukee/Capture2-17-2012-33613PM.jpg?t=1329511010
BearCam (http://www.bearcam.qv99.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Winnipesaukee/Capture2-17-2012-33825PM.jpg?t=1329511162
Moultonboro Bay Cam (http://www.lakesregionwireless.net/bay/webcam.html)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Winnipesaukee/Capture2-17-2012-34842PM.jpg?t=1329511767
Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam (http://www.blackcatnh.com/)
Water Temperature at 2 ft: 35.7 °F
Water Temperature at 10 ft: 38.2 °F

[pontoonbarge]

Some data I grabbed from the great calendar on
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/tempcal/index.cgi

Last year the water wasn't at the 5th day of 37 until April 11. (ice out was :
april 19)

2010 the 5th day of 37 was Feb 24, with a record ice out of March 24.

2009 the 5th day of 37 was Apr 1st, with an ice out of: April 12th

2008 the 5th day of 37 was Apr 16, with an ice out of: Apr 23

2007 the 5th day of 37 was Apr 1st, with an ice out of: Apr 23

2006 the 5th day of 37 was Mar 29th(38F) with an ice out of April 3.

So we are 6 days earlier than the record, which if linear would predict an ice out of March 18th. But we are 40 days earlier than the next closest ice out in 5 years. And that would (if linear) give us an ice out of April 3 - 40 days = ~Feb 24....

Of course, we know there's no magic answer....From reading other posts I gather that the melting process is strongly dependent on what's on the ice, and how sunny it is, the uncovered ice acting like a solar cover on a pool, etc. Then when the ice is really rotted -- what day will bring a strong blow of wind to really knock it apart.... There's some great footage of an ice out in Alaska in the film, "Alone in the Wilderness" where Dick Proenneke discusses the breakup of the ice in the lake where he built his camp. (The book - Alone in the Wilderness - is very good, too.) Winter is a bit colder there... Ahem... -45F....

[Bear Island South]

That is a great compilation of statistics, I think you are on to something with the early ice-out.

My guess is 3/28 but I will take 10 days earlier.

[fatlazyless]

www.unionleader.com/20120219/NEW502/702199955 is in today's newspaper and is about Dive Winnipesaukee in Wolfeboro and their business for retrieving cars, trucks and snowmobiles that break through the lake ice plus it has a photograph.

[Lakegeezer]

Check the webcam. http://sebagocam.com/ No ice!

[Blue Thunder]

Check the webcam. http://sebagocam.com/ No ice!

LG,

We never had "ice in". A few days of ice lasting up to a week or so but that was it. At least 3 of every ten years we don't get ice. Many of the locals predicted in December that given the weather pattern Sebago wouldn't freeze. Turns out they were correct.

BT