Official Ice Out 2011 Reports

[Island Girl]

Here is your Annual Ice-Out Thread. Please put your reports of lake conditions here where we can keep track of the 2011 ice out.

The Snake Eyes Ice-Out Page (http://rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm) is up at http://rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm (http://rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm)


Features of the ice out page are:

Live images from the Lake Winnipseaukee webcams

DRH's daily picture from West Alton

Sanders Bay daily picture (link will be up as soon as their page is up)
Link to other lakes webcams
Lake temperature at the Weirs
Links to frequently used information such as CLA's weather page, how to tie knots, Lakeport Dam information, McDude's restaurant page, etc.

Enjoy!
IG

[Island Girl]

Just to get you going.... it is snowing here in central MA!!!!

[Grant]

The DRH photo-a-day is always really cool. As is the Silver Sands daily photo (if they do it this year). Thanks for compiling this...definitely scratches an itch.

[Chaos]

I've been checking for the iceout page for the last few weeks. I look forward to this every year!

[Bear Island South]

Just to get you going.... it is snowing here in central MA!!!!

I think Mother Nature is confused or she didn't like the fact I was doing yard work yesterday :eek:

[KBoater]

The Club Cam at WCYC is

http://www.wcyc-nh.com/ClubCam.html

[Bear Island South]

The color of the ice is finally changing, I noticed on most of the cams it is taking on a darker shade.

[Just Sold]

The color of the ice is finally changing, I noticed on most of the cams it is taking on a darker shade.

Soon to be covered by more white stuff!!! :fire:

Come on ICE OUT not Ice Covered.

But I did notice on some cams that the ice cracks are getting more pronounced so that indicates the ice is changing too.

[Pine Island Guy]

it's looking a lot like winter out there today... very discouraging for those of us that want to get out on the water (and to the island) :(

hopefully this weekend will improve things!! -PIG

[Blue Thunder]

I was checking today's satellite photo of the lakes region. As some of you know I make occasional comparisons of the "big" lake with Sebago Lake in Maine. They share roughly the same latitude. Today's picture shows a much "darker" lake surface on Sebago compared to other area lakes and ponds, including Winnipesaukee. Don't know what if anything that means but it was noticeable.

I could be wrong but is that a area of open water near the Broads?

BT

[Resident 2B]

The open water near the broads is "The Witches". The sun warms the rocks and they melt the ice. The next step is the wind starts to rip it open even more.

The water is warming up as the sun is very strong now. I still think it will be around April 25th or about three weeks away.

R2B

[diz]

Blue Thunder, could you post the link to the satellite photo you mention? Thanks!

[Rattlesnake Guy]

Yes, I would love this link for the satellite view. Spectacular.

[Blue Thunder]

Yes, I would love this link for the satellite view. Spectacular.

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/

Click on the section of the map that contains New England then click the 250m icon. Use your mouse to scroll and get the lake into the center of the picture. The photo is updated every day around noontime and obviously (I hope) it has to be a clear day to get the best results.

BT

[Bear Island South]

More snow today..are you kidding me :(
at least we are getting rain here in Mass, it doesn't look like the warmer temps the DC area is getting will make it up this way.
This is very depressing

[sum-r breeze]

Does anyone know if yesterday's windy conditions and awesome sunshine helped along the ice out mission ? We were out to dinner on Sunday afternoon with no coats on and very comfortable.

The Breeze
Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back:D

[Rattlesnake Guy]

Thank You Blue Thunder!
Your link is now on my short list to check out each day.
Thanks again. :):):)

[Bear247]

More snow today..are you kidding me :(
at least we are getting rain here in Mass, it doesn't look like the warmer temps the DC area is getting will make it up this way.
This is very depressing

Very depressing to say the least.:( Might have no choice but to wait till May to open up.

[Just Sold]

Anyone want to report on the ice condition over on Lilly Pond in Gilford?

It is always a benchmark on predicting Ice Out on Winni. Lilly Pond is something like 10 days ahead of Winnipesaukee for Ice Out.

[PaulT]

Weather.com 's forecast has Moultonborough in the 50s over the next 10 days & mid 60s next monday!

:D

[chipj29]

My usual indicator is Stevens Pond in Manchester. Lake Winni ice out typically occurs 3 weeks after there is no ice on that pond. Last year was an exception due to the warm weather, it was less than 2 weeks. I suspect this year will be the usual 3 weeks, therefore since there is only a little ice on the pond this morning, ice out will be April 28.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Anyone want to report on the ice condition over on Lilly Pond in Gilford?

It is always a benchmark on predicting Ice Out on Winni. Lilly Pond is something like 10 days ahead of Winnipesaukee for Ice Out.

Yeah, what he said! :D

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopost/data/515/Summit-Hotel.jpg

This Gunstock Summit Hotel picture from flyguy (http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopost/showgallery.php?cat=500&ppuser=187) shows Lily Pond in the background. The picture was taken April 1st. Could Lily be free of ice longer than usual before Lake Winnipesaukee?

[19MileBaylover]

Hey Blue Thunder, ditto on the thanks; neat site.

[Blue Thunder]

Anyone want to report on the ice condition over on Lilly Pond in Gilford?

It is always a benchmark on predicting Ice Out on Winni. Lilly Pond is something like 10 days ahead of Winnipesaukee for Ice Out.

Today's pic "should" be pretty good. Those of you that know the lay of the land should be able to pick out Lily Pond and see it's condition.

BT

[meredith weekender]

My usual indicator is Stevens Pond in Manchester. Lake Winni ice out typically occurs 3 weeks after there is no ice on that pond. Last year was an exception due to the warm weather, it was less than 2 weeks. I suspect this year will be the usual 3 weeks, therefore since there is only a little ice on the pond this morning, ice out will be April 28.

The ice on Stevens Pond disappeared this afternoon. On the other side, the snow at the lake is still holding on as well. Went to Meredith today and still had well over a foot of snow in the yard. Very disappointing. :confused:

[chipj29]

The ice on Stevens Pond disappeared this afternoon. On the other side, the snow at the lake is still holding on as well. Went to Meredith today and still had well over a foot of snow in the yard. Very disappointing. :confused:

I think they sunny and warm days coming up will make things start to happen up that way real quick.

[Bear Island South]

I think they sunny and warm days coming up will make things start to happen up that way real quick.

the next 5 days is prime melting weather

[Grady223]

I agree, should have some significant progress in the next 4 days. Let's see where we are on Tuesday!

[ishoot308]

Remember there is still about 15" of ice out there! We still have a long ways to go! :emb:

[jads32]

Yeah, what he said! :D

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopost/data/515/Summit-Hotel.jpg

This Gunstock Summit Hotel picture from flyguy (http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopost/showgallery.php?cat=500&ppuser=187) shows Lily Pond in the background. The picture was taken April 1st. Could Lily be free of ice longer than usual before Lake Winnipesaukee?

when did they build a hotel on top of Gunstock?

[Grant]

when did they build a hotel on top of Gunstock?

That's exactly what I was wondering. And how do you get up there (obviously some good roads now, seeing as they trucked up all those building supplies).

[SteveA]

Anyone want to report on the ice condition over on Lilly Pond in Gilford?

It is always a benchmark on predicting Ice Out on Winni. Lilly Pond is something like 10 days ahead of Winnipesaukee for Ice Out.

As of this morning, Lilly Pond is still iced in. the marsh area near Rt. 11 is open.

[SteveA]

The picture was taken on 4/1? April Fools? :laugh::laugh:

Maybe someone Photo Shopped the Hotel and the open water (Just Kidding... )

[Slickcraft]

The lake ice is still almost white today, very little darker color yet.

The Lilly Pond ice is a darker grey offering some hope.

The next days may bring forth darker ice.

We saw a pair of loons near just south of the Alton/Gilford town line. Apparently they have faith that the ice will in fact melt in time.

[winniboy]

its a photoshop...looks pretty good..but you can tell

[Merrymeeting]

We opened up today! Earliest we've ever done it but I'm glad we did. It was a beautiful day.

However, I am surprised at how locked in Merrymeeting still is. Very little melting along the shoreline, the ice is still solid and thick. It's going to be awhile.

[meredith weekender]

Meredith Bay is still pretty tight except for the shoreline on the west side of the bay. In hopes that we can fool mother nature, we decided to launch the kids 14' aluminum boat today. Our goal is to keep her in the water for 8 months. :D

[lawn psycho]

Any updated reports on areas opening up? With the temps this weekend and a very warm Monday we should start seeing some serious thinning.

[RailroadJoe]

Open water almost to the bandstand at Alton Bay this afternoon.

[Merrymeeting]

We spent a lot of time driving around Merrymeeting this weekend. Early Saturday, the ice was still white and looking very solid. By late today, it was still solid, but large areas were clearly darker. The temps this week should help. But it looks like another 2 weeks at least.

[Slickcraft]

Many dark blotches have appeared on the ice with some small areas almost black.

This quote from the Univ of Minnesota web site:

How Lake Ice Melts
In the late fall, the lake loses heat to the atmosphere, and then on a day or night when the wind is not blowing, ice forms. The ice gets thicker as long as the lake can continue to lose heat.

In most Januaries and Februaries, snow both reflects sunlight and insulates the lake. With a thick snow layer, the lake neither gains nor loses heat. The bottom sediment is actually heating the lake water slightly over the winter, from stored summer heat.

Around March, as the air warms and the sun gets more intense, the snow melts, allowing light to penetrate the ice. Because the ice acts like the glass in a greenhouse, the water beneath it begins to warm, and the ice begins to melt FROM THE BOTTOM.

When the ice thickness erodes to between 4 and 12 inches, it transforms into long vertical crystals called "candles." These conduct light even better, so the ice starts to look black, because it is not reflecting much sunlight.

Warming continues because the light energy is being transferred to the water below the ice. Meltwater fills in between the crystals, which begin breaking apart. The surface appears grayish as the ice reflects a bit more light than before.

The wind comes up, and breaks the surface apart. The candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and piling up on the shore. In hours, a sparkling blue lake, once again!

[RLW]

It's coming, It's coming, just view this picture of Alton Bay taken about 5:47 PM this evening.

[Merrymeeting]

The difference in the past 24 hours is dramatic. Looking at the webcams, dark areas and open water showing up everywhere, and in places that didn't even show a hint 2 days ago. Large "steam" plumes showing on Wolfeboro and other cams.

Seems someone hit the fast forward button! (though won't help me...my April 8th guess is already done) :rolleye1:

[MAXUM]

Tough to get terribly excited about the upcoming season when you look at the gas prices. Ugh! It's going to hurt this year no doubt about it. Little more sittin' at anchor and a little less cruising around. I may have to cut back a little bit on my salmon fishing too.

[lawn psycho]

Maxum, no doubt that it will impact the boating community. This is where trailer boaters have the advantage as at least they can fill up at the road stations.

I can't even imagine paying for gas for the larger cruisers out on the water.

Unfortunately the US is quickly becoming less of a financial force as the Chinese economic consumption approaches ours. This is simply the beginning as the next couple decades we're going to see major changes in economies across the globe. Even little places like the Lakes Region are impacted by global events.

With the supply/demand equation so out of whack, I don't know what to predict with fuel prices anymore. This year's fuel price run-up was predicted last Fall by many economics and energy traders. I don't understand the energy markets but when you can predict these things it always makes me suspicious of how speculators are driving the price. Our supplies seem to reflect gas is over-priced but they're now saying gas is headed for over $4 "easily".

[PaulT]

This year's fuel price run-up was predicted last Fall by many economics and energy traders.

It's the futures traders that have driving oil up over $111/bbl unfortunately.

Despite the unrest in the middle east and Africa, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations upped production to make up for any lost in the troubled areas.
Lybia's oil didn't even come to the US.

Traders are just using this as their excuse to force prices higher.
Can't even blame Exxon/Mobil or BP for the rise.


That said, the 12' aluminum V-hull I bought my wife for her birthday last year only used about 8-9 gallons all summer, and we fished a ton! :D

[Blue Thunder]

The difference in the past 24 hours is dramatic. Looking at the webcams, dark areas and open water showing up everywhere, and in places that didn't even show a hint 2 days ago. Large "steam" plumes showing on Wolfeboro and other cams.

Seems someone hit the fast forward button! (though won't help me...my April 8th guess is already done) :rolleye1:

Very dramatic changes indeed. The "steam" is fog (but you knew that) and fog eats ice and snow like crazy.

Over in my neck of the woods, parts of the lake that had ice fishermen on them on Saturday reporting 14 inches of ice with 8 of it being solid black ice are now grayish/black and moving in the wind. It will easily be open water by the end of the week if not sooner.

BT

[Rattlesnake Guy]

It's the futures traders that have driving oil up over $111/bbl unfortunately.



With all due respect, your statement identifies that you don't understand how the futures markets work. For every buyer of a future, there is a seller. When your mother pre buys her oil for next year, she is a speculator. She is not doing it because she thinks the price is going to go down, she is willing to risk a higher price to offset the risk of an even higher price. The futures markets are a free market way of people to shed and assume risk. Some people use it as a casino as well. The vast majority of them loose money doing it.

As a private citizen you are equally free to sell a future to "drive the price down". Then buy it when the price is lower. Every dollar made by one is lost by another.

[nhd]

From my vantage point in Alton looking over the lake it got very gray in spots overnight, especially between Rattlesnake and Alton Bay. With this wind there might be some open water today. Up towards Meredith and Center Harbor it still looks white. I will try to get a picture tomorrow and post it but no time today.

[Island Girl]

The temperature of the lake reported by the dam operators is up to 38 degrees. Last year we had ice out at 39 degrees. (though it was 39 degrees for many days before the ice went out.)

Lily Pond was mostly iced is except for a bit at the edges on Saturday. If anyone goes by could let us know if the ice is out.

IG

[DRH]

Yesterday's rain, fog and mild temps really affected the ice. I took this picture from the Scenic View on Rt. 11 in Alton around noon today, looking toward Wolfeboro:

http://echoshores.com/ice-out/2011/Scenic_View_041211.jpg

[Merrymeeting]

I checked the 2' water temperature on the WeatherCenter Cam page early this morning. It was still just under 37 degrees.

Right now it's reading 39.7! I'm not sure if it actually rose that fast, or if it just hadn't been updating for awhile.

In any case, if the reading is true, it's at the seemingly magic 40 degrees when ice-out happens quickly. The Water Temp page on this site shows the Lakeport Dam at 38 as of today.

On Sunday when I was there, there was almost no open water on the shoreline of Merrymeeting. Now you can see it is at least 20' out. http://65.175.138.198/view/view.shtml

[codeman671]

I just got back from an airboat ride to Mark from Cattle Landing. It is open all the way across to Bear (small strip approaching Bear). There is 5" of wet, broken ice between Cattle and Mark. The airboat was having a tough time getting on top of it without breaking through. Coming across from Glendale the ice is strong enough to hold the boat I am told. I took a few cell phone pictures that I will upload later tonight.

Gilford Yacht Club is ice-free to the end of the outer dock and Smith Cove is going quickly. In Alton the ice is past the pavilion. Everywhere you look it is very porous and dark with lots of cracks.

[Lakesrider]

The docks are free at 19 mile bay. It is open about 50 yards out. 20 Mile Bay is just starting to get some open water near RT109. Ice is looking very Gray now......

[fpartri497]

the docks at WAM are mostly Ice free now and the channel looks wide open. there Is some Ice floating around the middle of the docks. I would think It will be totally Ice free by the end of the week.

:D

[Slickcraft]

From the Ames Farm area the ice is very dark and broken into many medium size sheets. A good wind would start to break this up.

Looking from Belknap Point today toward Welch and Round the gaps are fewer and the ice is not as dark, this will take a little longer.

[Steveo]

Photos, we want PHOTOS!!!!

Please

[Grant]

Photos, we want PHOTOS!!!!

Please

Here you go (http://rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm). Real-time.

Don't say I never gave you anything. :coolsm:

[Rattlesnake Gal]

For those of you checking into the Forum after dark, here are the webcam pictures from mid day today, April, 13th.

Silver Lake in Hollis had ice-out either Sunday or Monday and is usually one week ahead of Lake Winnipesaukee.

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121129PM.jpg?t=1302713229
Alton Bay Cam (http://www.spencerhughes.com/altoncam/?justshowme=true)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121232PM.jpg?t=1302713436
BearCam2 (http://www.bearcam.qv99.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121352PM.jpg?t=1302713519
Black Cat Island Cam (http://www.blackcatcam.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-12921PM.jpg?t=1302715912
Downing's Landing (http://www.downingslanding.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122552PM.jpg?t=1302715469
2011 Echo Shores Ice-Out Watch, by DRH (http://www.echoshores.com/ice-out/2011/echoshores.htm)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121608PM.jpg?t=1302713643
FairhavenCam (http://www.sunsetcliff.com/cam/01.jpg)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121626PM.jpg?t=1302713746
Governors Island Cam (http://www.govislandnh.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121751PM.jpg?t=1302713830
Moultonborough Bay Cam (http://www.lakesregionwireless.net/bay/webcam.html)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-10136PM.jpg?t=1302714274
Overlook Cam on Paugus Bay (http://www.overlooker.tzo.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121832PM.jpg?t=1302714339
Pine Island South Cam (http://www.charlesyoung.com/pineislandsouth.jpg)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-121956PM.jpg?t=1302714028
Rattlesnake IslandCam (http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/)
2011 Ice-Out, by Island Girl (http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122423PM-2.jpg?t=1302716207 Photo for April 13th has not been posted yet.
Silver Sands Ice-Out Picture of the day (http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Features/ice/ice-out2011.htm)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-10730PM.jpg?t=1302714607
SmithCoveCam (http://home.comcast.net/~hd85/site/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122015PM.jpg?t=1302714718
Varney Point Cam, Gilford (http://www.rochlis.com/personal/webcam/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122053PM.jpg?t=1302714857
WeirsCam (http://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=weirscam)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122131PM.jpg?t=1302714926
WinnipesaukeeCam (http://www.winnipesaukeecam.com/)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122154PM.jpg?t=1302714989
WinnipesaukeeCam 2 (http://www.winnipesaukeecam.com/index2.php)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122310PM.jpg?t=1302715249
WolfeboroCam (http://www.wolfeborobayrealestate.com/wolfecam.php)

Other Area Lakes:

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-14244PM.jpg?t=1302716796
Lake Wentworth Cam (http://www.lwa.org/index.php?option=com_wrapper&wrap=webcam&Itemid=5)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-14256PM.jpg?t=1302716758
Merrymeeting Lake Webcam (http://65.175.138.198/view/view.shtml)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-122241PM.jpg?t=1302715078
Winnisquam Marine Webcam (http://www.winnisquammarine.com/webcam.htm)

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-13840PM.jpg?t=1302716700
http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Miscellaneous%20Blog%20Pictures/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-13-2011-13847PM.jpg?t=1302716730
Ossipee Lake Webcams (http://www.ossipeelakecam.com/)

The ice is really taking a beating with this rain! :D

[codeman671]

Pictures as promised. Starting left to right, leaving Mark to head towards Cattle Landing, looking off my dock towards Mink, looking off my deck across to Camp Lawrence, and looking left off my dock towards Bear, to the left of Lawrence.

[nhd]

I took these at 6:30 am from the house. The ice which was white two days ago off of Rattlesnake turned gray after yesterday's rain. It is difficult to get pictures towards Center Harbor but it also looks gray. Wind is blowing down the Lake so should help move this gray around some.

[Grady223]

Thanks to all for posting pictures. It is unbelievable the progress in the last few days. My 4/17 may not be that far off base.

[Steveo]

If you want to actually watch the ice go out click on www.winnipesaukeecam.com (http://winnepesaukeecam.com) and hit the dynamic video option and you will see it heading down the bay

[Grady223]

Top Sides posted the following in the Boats Forum a little while ago:
I noticed Lily Pond had no ice on it today as I drove by, Sure hope that means winnie will have ice out in about a week. From Elacoya beach to Meredith the ice looks very very gray. things could be happening very quickly now.
Traditionally should be a week now, I can live with that!

[DBA]

Northwest winds are pushing thinner ice opening rivers.

[Janet]

Just noticed on blackcatnh.com the water temperature at the 2 foot level is now 40.1 degrees and 36.3 at 10 feet!

[Rattlesnake Gal]

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-14-2011-45349PM.jpg?t=1302814646

MODIS Today (http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php)- April 14, 2011

Thanks Blue Thunder for the great link! :D

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-14-2011-50302PM.jpg?t=1302815066

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/IceOutCapture4-12-20114-14-2011-50547PM.jpg?t=1302815222

Alton Bay is looking good! :D

[robmac]

Thanks to all,looks like a ride out to Georgetown to p/u the boat should be undertaken tomorrow and get her ready for a dunk next week..

[Blue Thunder]

Very dramatic changes indeed. The "steam" is fog (but you knew that) and fog eats ice and snow like crazy.

Over in my neck of the woods, parts of the lake that had ice fishermen on them on Saturday reporting 14 inches of ice with 8 of it being solid black ice are now grayish/black and moving in the wind. It will easily be open water by the end of the week if not sooner.

BT

80 percent of Sebago Lake is free of ice as of today. If history is any indicator, Winnipesaukee is not far behind......

[CanisLupusArctos]

Conditions are beginning to look favorable for iceout in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame. The ice is now breaking up daily and is about 2 inches thick. It is composed of the late season "candle" crystals that are weakly joined. Within a few hundred feet of its edges, the ice is rolling in the waves rather than holding flat.



A strong late winter blizzard on the great plains is pushing a cold front into the Mississippi River states tonight, a process that is generating severe thunderstorms along the cold front and a change to cold weather behind it. This storm system will track to our west this weekend, initially causing our local wind to increase from the southeast -- a major wave-generating direction for the open lake. The cold front now pushing severe weather through the nation's mid-section will overtake this area on Sunday. It will bring rain, possible thunderstorms, and strong wind gusts to the lake, along with a wind shift into the northwest -- the other major wave-generating direction here.



Along with the cold front there will be rain and possible thunderstorms. The combination of weather conditions will significantly reduce the amount of ice in the lake -- perhaps bringing official iceout. The only factor that will not be present are warm temperatures, or this prediction would express greater confidence. Temperatures may dip into the 20s for the next two nights, and we may see a few more snowflakes this weekend also.



Despite lack of warm temps this year, the ice has weakened thanks to recent rain and dense fog. The weaker ice will clear out very quickly if we get strong enough wind. It is beginning to look like a windy weekend, with wind coming from the lake's two biggest wave-generating directions. If the wind is able to clear the main lake of ice, some patches may remain in the protected bays.



Warmer weather -- near 60 F -- is in the forecast for after Monday. That may be enough to melt any remaining ice.



Official iceout is declared by Emerson Aviation of Laconia Airport, when the M/S Mount Washington can reach all of her ports without hitting any ice. I am forecasting a 75% chance of iceout during or within 48 hours after after this weekend's expected stormy weather, and a 90% chance of iceout within the next 7 days.

[Bear Island South]

Tuesday sounds good to me that is my Ice-out guess :D

[Slickcraft]

View today from Belknap Point, Welch Island on the right.

[Just Sold]

Modis shows Alton Bay and the area towards Lee's Mill are open plus a big area of the lower middle part of the lake but not much else yet.

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2011_04_15_105&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA4&resolution=250m

[Airedale1]

View from today, taken from Lincoln Park in Gilford. Straight ahead is Round island with a snow-capped Mount Washington off in the distance. Ice out should be soon.:)

http://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h33/Airedale1/ICE.jpg

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Modis (http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2011_04_15_105&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA4&resolution=250m) shows Alton Bay and the area towards Lee's Mill are open plus a big area of the lower middle part of the lake but not much else yet.

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Mount4-15-2011-40506PM.jpg?t=1302898178

You're right! Happily, today's picture has much less clouds for a clearer view of the lake.

[fpartri497]

I am quite suprised at how low the water level Is Inside the marina. Usually at this time of year It is very high

:eek:

[trfour]

I am quite suprised at how low the water level Is Inside the marina. Usually at this time of year It is very high

:eek:

I think that the operators know just what they are doing these days and also think that they are doing a yo-mans job at it! Now, if Mother Nature would catch us a break, Maybe we won't have to deal with the ( No Wake ), after most put their boats and such in the open waters of Lake Winnipesaukee for the up and coming 2011 season! :) :look:

Terry
______________________________________

[Bear Island South]

This picture was taken yesterday by a friend, standing at cattle landing looking south towards Bear.

[Bear Island South]

I am quite suprised at how low the water level Is Inside the marina. Usually at this time of year It is very high

:eek:


right where it should be for this time of year, perfect height for getting the dock in next week :D

[Flyfisha]

So what are my chances of getting out of Minge Cove and over to the "quiet" side of Rattlesnake tomorrow?? I can't stand it any longer??:liplick:

[nhd]

Doubtful, very doubtful. Looks pretty solid from our house overlooking Rattlesnake this morning. If it looks better towards the end of the day I will let you know.

[JMR]

I have a friend that boated out to the quiet side of Rattlesnake yesterday afternoonm ames Farm. Some ice left below Aligator Point, but all else clear. haven't heard if he got around to other side. He sent a picture, but i haven't posted it yet.

[Bear247]

This picture was taken yesterday by a friend, standing at cattle landing looking south towards Bear.

We got a clear shot right to the cove.

[Eagle's Nest]

Hi All,
We've been watching the web cams and all of your comments excitedly from home. Who'd have thought watching ice melt could be so much fun! We were going to head out to East Bear Island on Monday, 4/18 from Smith Cove. Has anyone been out there among the ice flows to know if it's clear enough? Have a great day!
EN

[Rattlesnake Gal]

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Mount4-17-2011-71403AM.jpg?t=1303038970

The lake is open this morning on the Broads side of the island! :D

It's supposed to get windy later, which means ice-out could happen today.

[snowflake]

I am really enjoying the Ice out cam and reports. If I can't be there physically I can be there in spirit. Will August vacation in Wolfeboro ever come??? Thanks to all who report, send pictures and keep an eye on webcams!

[JMR]

Friday 3pm Rattlesnake Island, quiet side, below the Aligator Point corner.

[Gatto Nero]

Breakwater doing its thing (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx2y5L1UF3E) this morning.

[Flylady]

It is so exciting to see the sparkling blue water again. Makes the wait until May (when I make my first trip of the year to the lake) even seem longer! :coolsm:

[Webbsatwinni]

Friday 3pm Rattlesnake Island


We are so jealous!

[hampfarms]

Friends of mine are on Mink Island. They came out of Shep Browns, boy am I jealous! Couple of more days and i'll be there, YEA....

[Flyfisha]

Just got back from Rattlesnake--Came out of Minge Cove and did not see any ice in sight. Winds came up pretty brisk so opened up camp and headed back to shore-- Boy did it feel good to be out there!!! Took the scenic route home by way of the Weirs--The only ice I spotted was in the Weirs--they seem to be socked in pretty well!! Well back to work until Friday and then the entire week at the island!!!!!:liplick:

[KTO]

Just to let people know, there is still ice on the lake in places...Center Harbor still had a good amount of ice today, although it changed significantly in 24 hours, so it definitely will not be long in that area. Yesterday around 6pm, the Mount was iced in a bit, but today had some water around it. It looked as though many areas north of the Beaver Islands and Black Cat Island still had some good amount of ice, but that was changing quickly as the day went on.

[Dhuberty24]

First photo is looking at the broads from harrillas, second is looking at 19 mile bay from the hole in the wall and third is comming out of the hole in the wall. Couldn't make it to the camp.
Meredith still has ice, Center harbor still has ice, the barbers pole was clogged up with ice. the wind was blowing so hard that it wont be to long. Maybe next weekend?

[JMR]

Went to Rattlesnake today, both sides. no ice in sight on either side. Photos attached. First is from east side looking towards Wolfeboro, etc. Second is looking towards Sleeper

[JMR]

Sorry forgot to upload. First looking east from Rattlesnake. Second looking west from other side of Rattlesnake

[P-3 Guy]

I want to try to get to Three Mile Island from Y-Landing sometime later this week. Can someone from Pine or Bear give me an ice report for the area between Pine and Y-Landing, and heading over to the southeast corner of Three Mile? Thanks.

[19MileBaylover]

Thanks for the great pics from the hole in the wall. We're anxiously awaiting the ice gone at 19 mile bay and this is a great visual. Thanks for taking the time.

[MikeF-NH]

thanks for the great report from Harillas and Hole in the Wall. I like to use these areas early in the season but there are no cams in that area so it's an "information black out" area. Please keep the reports from this area coming - I'm planning on being up there on Friday.

[Bear Island South]

I think we all need a report from Flyguy?
What ports are still iced in and which ones are open?

[meredith weekender]

I think we all need a report from Flyguy?
What ports are still iced in and which ones are open?

Definitely agree with Bear Island South. After the last nights wind and rain we need an aerial.

[Slickcraft]

No ice in sight from Belkap Point looking toward Welch, Round and Timber. Also no ice in view from Scenic Road near Ellacoya looking toward the broads.

The Slickcraft is in the water and should be started this afternoon. Maybe a trip out to Welch Island tomorrow.:)

[hazelnut]

Couldn't make it to the camp.


... Chicken! :laugh:

J/K Nice pics see you on the island soon enough!

[Pine Island Guy]

I want to try to get to Three Mile Island from Y-Landing sometime later this week. Can someone from Pine or Bear give me an ice report for the area between Pine and Y-Landing, and heading over to the southeast corner of Three Mile? Thanks.

You won't have any troubles getting to Three Mile from Y-Landing. Yesterday morning the webcam showed the ice had shifted with the storm to be socked in the eastern edge of Pine Island, however pal Misty Blue and I got the Alumacraft rigged and by the time we got out to Light Buoy #4, it was pretty much cleared and we could get to the dock fine.

It was a spectacular day out there and we enjoyed the sun for a bit before heading back. Didn't see any other boats on the water (or ice). And this morning the PI webcams show no ice at all... poof!!

Spring has sprung, life is GREAT!! PIG

[P-3 Guy]

You won't have any troubles getting to Three Mile from Y-Landing. Yesterday morning the webcam showed the ice had shifted with the storm to be socked in the eastern edge of Pine Island, however pal Misty Blue and I got the Alumacraft rigged and by the time we got out to Light Buoy #4, it was pretty much cleared and we could get to the dock fine.

It was a spectacular day out there and we enjoyed the sun for a bit before heading back. Didn't see any other boats on the water (or ice). And this morning the PI webcams show no ice at all... poof!!

Spring has sprung, life is GREAT!! PIG

Excellent! Thanks very much for the report.

[Alton Bay]

Could you get from Wolfeboro Bay to Barndoor today?

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Could you get from Wolfeboro Bay to Barndoor today?

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/Mount4-18-2011-111212AM.jpg?t=1303139663

From this vantage point, it looks like you would have an ice-free ride.

[Island Girl]

So... do you think ice-put will be declared today? If anyone can see if the bays are free of ice, please let us know.

Time for boating!!!

IG

[Bear247]

I think we all need a report from Flyguy?
What ports are still iced in and which ones are open?

Someone is looking to get ice out called tomorrow. :)

[Rattlesnake Gal]

There is no ice to be found on any of the webcams. Could Center Harbor be the hold up?

[meredith weekender]

Someone is looking to get ice out called tomorrow. :)

Tomorrow?????:confused::confused:
I want it DECLARED today!!!!! :D

[Flippin NH]

Ther was still some ice 2 hours ago in Meredith between the Weirs and Meredith Bay and also some in Center Harbor. If not late today then I think it will be tomorrow.

[Merrymeeting]

The Paugus Bay camera is still showing quite a bit of ice

[Dhuberty24]

... Chicken! :laugh:

J/K Nice pics see you on the island soon enough!


I am going up this friday, do you want me to go warm up your camp?

[Webbsatwinni]

I took the list and pulled the 4/19 guesses (because mine is in there!) If it is tomorrow, time will be important.

19-Apr-11
4/19/2011 9:00
4/19/2011 9:42
4/19/2011 15:45
4/19/2011 11:30AM
April 19 @ 10:28 a.m.
April 19 12.25 PM
April 19 2011 14:24 59
April 19 at 1:30PM
April 19 at 2 p.m.
April 19, 11:00 AM
April 19, 2:04 pm
April 19, 2011 @ 2:25pm
April 19, 9:02AM
April 19. 1:37pm
April 19th 11:15 am
April 19th 11:30am
April 19th 12:30PM
April 19th 2:00 p.m.
April 19th 3:13 PM
April 19th, 11:54 am.
April 19th, 2:30 pm

[SLI]

So.... doesn't it all boil down to when the flight occurs? That's alot of guesses for tomorrow!

[escaped from NJ]

We're planning on trying to get to Little Bear from Melvin Village on Friday. I sure would appreciate any info on conditions in this area if ice out isn't declared by then. The pictures looking out of hole in the wall towards Pier 19 make it look like it isn't open.

[LadyoftheLake]

I am hoping that Fly Guy will be posting a new video soon. I would really like to see Meredith and Center Harbor. We are expecting some rain and possibly mixed precipitation on Tuesday April 19. :confused:

Thank you Fly Guy. :D

[Dhuberty24]

We're planning on trying to get to Little Bear from Melvin Village on Friday. I sure would appreciate any info on conditions in this area if ice out isn't declared by then. The pictures looking out of hole in the wall towards Pier 19 make it look like it isn't open.

Depending on what side of little bear you are on you could get there. It is open from the grave yard down to harillas. The side facing 19 mile bay was closed off. I am willing to bet that all the ice will be gone by friday.

[Flippin NH]

The Paugus Bay camera is still showing quite a bit of ice

I don't think the Mount can get under the bridge :look:

[NHKathy]

Just saw a post on FaceBook from Emerson Aviation ...

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Emerson-Aviation/131847876851023

:)

[Rattlesnake Gal]

still has some ice.

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/4-18-11026-b.jpg?t=1303174500

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/4-18-11025-b.jpg?t=1303174540

Center Harbor pictures taken around 4:00 pm

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/4-18-11036-b.jpg?t=1303174586

http://i965.photobucket.com/albums/ae131/RattlesnakeGal/4-18-11042-2.jpg?t=1303174609

Meredith Bay pictures were taken around 5:00 pm.

[Rattlesnake Guy]

RG and I took a ride clockwise from the tip of Alton Bay to Center Harbor. We did not see any ice until we got to Meredeth and Center Harbor. In both cases the North East side was holding on.

[NHgirl]

Meredith still has a little sheet of ice and also Center Harbor. All rest are clear!! :D

[Flippin NH]

Nothing could be seen in Meredith this morning at 6:50 or so when I went past the bay.

[CrownRay]

Hmmm...Looks like Emerson will have to file an IFR flight plan to get up to declare today!

Does it HAVE to be done from the air? Can a boat declare it??

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Hmmm...Looks like Emerson will have to file an IFR flight plan to get up to declare today!

Does it HAVE to be done from the air? Can a boat declare it??

I'm sure a boat could do it, but it is tradition having Emerson Aviation make the call. :D

[Diana]

Per Emerson post on Facebook this morning! Will post pix and time later.....

[lymanblue]

This was on Emerson Aviation Face Book page about an hour ago:
Emerson Aviation
Just got down from the ice-out patrol...We have ICE OUT!!!!! Took a few pictures, but my camera just went flying without me with a student pilot...have to wait to post them. Official time will be announced later. ;)
56 minutes ago:D

[SIKSUKR]

OK,56 minutes minus what time on the facebook post?= Ice out.

[hilltopper]

I took the list and pulled the 4/19 guesses (because mine is in there!) If it is tomorrow, time will be important.

4/19/2011 9:00


Sound like this guess will be the winner!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Emerson Aviation announced ice out this morning, as a few previous posts show. They did say that there's some ice outside of the MOUNT's path. The definition of iceout is when the MOUNT can make all her ports without running into any. That means if you have a boat in the water, and you stick to the MOUNT's path, you won't find ice. No guarantees for places outside the MOUNT's path!

The water temp actually dropped in the last couple days. It had been 40 at the surface a couple days ago. Now we have 37 at the surface and 35 at 10 feet down.

If you end up in the water for any reason, your muscles will become almost useless to you within a minute or so. The first few seconds in the water will be as painful and shocking as if you fell through a hole in the ice. After about 2 minutes your movements will be very sluggish and drunk-like. If you remain in the water you will probably be unconscious before rescuers arrive.

WEAR the life jackets. Carry survival suits on board if you have them. But at the very least, WEAR the life jackets.

[Grant]

Can't wait to dive in less than two weeks.

[LDR4]

According to a posting on Emerson Aviation's facebook page the ice is out and they will be announcing ther officila time shortly

[Grant]

I think we all need a report from Flyguy?
What ports are still iced in and which ones are open?

Yeah -- would love someone to post pics from 20 Mile Bay to Melvin Bay.

[Whimsey]

According to Emerson Aviation's Facebook page!!!:D

[nightrider]

What happens if a large ice floe is wind driven back into one of the Mount's ports after ice out is declared???? Is ice back in????

[island of barndoor]

Any news on the status of ice in Roberts Cove?

[MikeF-NH]

...also looking for any reports from 19 Mile Bay out to Hole in the Wall.

[Blue Thunder]

So now that Ice Out 2011 is a memory, how would you like to be the folks on Moosehead Lake in Maine?? Looks like a couple more weeks for them.....

BT

[lawn psycho]

Maybe they can use the slush ice floating around to make sno-cones on Memorial Day weekend.