Dec 19-20, 2010 Possible Snow Event

[Resident 2B]

The first chance for a reasonable size storm is in our future. Looks like Sunday into Monday, a sizable storm will be near the "benchmark" and that could bring us some snow. Right now, it is looking like the most precipitation will be south and east of the lake, but it is still early and most models keep bending westward with each run. If the trend continues, there could be more snow in our area.

At this point, this is something to be aware of. It has potential. NCIC as Dicky would say: Not Chiseled In Concrete.

R2B

[Rose]

Last night's run of the European really wants to slam us, but all other models are still out to sea. Will be interesting to watch it unfold. Luckily, my finals will be over by then, so I can sit at home and enjoy if it's really nasty. :D

[chipj29]

That is good to hear about the latest run of the euro, Rose (from a snow lovers perspective). That model had been really wanting to take this guy out to sea, but was inching closer in recent runs. Yesterdays GFS slammed us as well, so there is some agreement among the models.

This snow lover has his fingers and toes crossed!

[This'nThat]

Well, I was really hoping for a completely snow-free winter. But if it must snow, let's get it done with now.

At least we aren't in for the forecast this weekend in the Sierra Nevadas: Snow accumulations: 3 to 6 feet of new snow can be expected at
the higher elevations between Friday and Sunday afternoon.
Higher snowfall amounts are likely at the highest elevations.

A 6-foot + snowfall here would be really, really disappointing, IMO.

[baygo]

Large amounts of snowfall are good for the local economy. Not only will people come up to spend money on winter recreation, those who plow for the winter earn extra cash to spend at local markets and restaurants.

I really feel for people who live in the north but dislike cold and snow. I'm over 50 and still experience the excitement of a school kid in anticipation of a snow day when I see the white stuff fall. I'm excited because I was raised as a skier. Snow means fun to me :) It's all about attitude. I suggest anyone who hates the thought of winter should look for a free "learn to ski clinic" or even journey into the forrest on a pair of snow shoes. There is no way to stop the season from coming.

[Jonas Pilot]

Last night's run of the European really wants to slam us, but all other models are still out to sea. Will be interesting to watch it unfold. Luckily, my finals will be over by then, so I can sit at home and enjoy if it's really nasty. :D

Now that you teased us I hope you will tell us what the "European" is.
Thanks!

[sunset on the dock]

Nothing like bringing plenty of firewood for the stove into the garage, knowing you have enough fuel for the generator, plenty of food in the frig., and then sitting back and enjoying the storm, especially if you don't have to go to work at that time. Aah, life is good!

[Just Sold]

Latest this PM from http://www.southernnewenglandweather.com/p/tropical-weather_04.html BTW the OzEuro is shown heretoo. Just one of 7 models for predicting weather. 3 say we are getting a good storm. So right now we are at less than 50% predicting a significant storm.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_2aXvBq9Zy-g/TQnYmUbhxFI/AAAAAAAAB5w/cDgV_UdzsCU/s1600/Presentation1.jpg

[Resident 2B]

Now that you teased us I hope you will tell us what the "European" is.
Thanks!

JP,

There are numerous different computer models used as tools to help forecasters come up with weather forecasts. The "European" is one of them. It has a few aliases, mainly the "euro" and "ECMWF". This model was developed for The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and "ECMWF" is a weather acronym derived from that organization.

Other major models include the GFS or Global, NOGAPS, UKMET and NAM. When the models each give a different solution to a particular storm or event, it becomes a low-confidence forecast, such as what we have today for the upcoming event.

The ECMWF shows an intense storm over Cape Cod on Monday at all levels of the atmosphere. Because it is "vertically stacked" it would move very slowly, hence a big storm for the Boston area extending into the lakes region. However, most other models show a weaker storm on more of an ocean track. But these models are showing their track closer to the ECMWF track with most runs. In time something will happen, the computer programs and the forecasters will learn from the result and we move on to the next event.

One thing to be aware of is the ECMWF seems to be the more accurate model for this time of the year in this area of the world. That is why I started this thread.

There are ten or more "weather nuts" on this forum with varing degrees of classic weather training/education. We enjoy times like this.

I hope this helps!

R2B

[Jonas Pilot]

Thanks R2B. I have worked for a long time in the outdoors and really love the build up to a significant winter or summer storm. You don't pay much heed when the forecast is long but as the event gets closer the tension and excitement builds.To see "Mother Nature" at her fiercest can be awfully exhilarating. To see weather happen out your window is cool but to work out in the middle of a big storm is a total rush.

[Resident 2B]

JP,

I completely agree.

R2B

[chipj29]

We are about 78 hours from the start of the potential "event", and the models are still all over the place. This is not unprecedented, but it is uncommon. We should start seeing more consistency amongst the models by the end of the day. I think. ;)

[Resident 2B]

What seemed to be coming together last night, model-wise, as one would expect is once again all over the place.

Let's hope we get more consistant runs in the next 18 to 24 hours!

R2B

[This'nThat]

Let's hope we get more consistant runs in the next 18 to 24 hours!
Let's hope, instead, the whole thing blows out to sea, and we end up with partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures. The ice that's forming in the bay looks really, really smooth and will be perfect for long-distance ice skating in a few days -- if the snow will stay away.

[SIKSUKR]

It has potential. NCIC as Dicky would say: Not Chiseled In Concrete.
R2B
And after Monday Dickie would say GBAGL to that storm.good by and good luck.:laugh:

[Lakegeezer]

The forecasters seem to be backed off the predictions, saying it will be out to sea for the first pass. There is still some hope among snow lovers that it will back in on Tuesday - but doesn't look promising.

[no-engine]

It's 19th and no storm..............

[AC2717]

Let's hope, instead, the whole thing blows out to sea, and we end up with partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures. The ice that's forming in the bay looks really, really smooth and will be perfect for long-distance ice skating in a few days -- if the snow will stay away.

Hell No We want Snow, hell no we want snow!!! LOLOLOLOLOL

just playing with you, I want it down here in MA, but it is not coming, so much for getting rid of some of the bills early

Merry Christmas to all!!!

[This'nThat]

Hell No We want Snow, hell no we want snow!!!
Merry Christmas to all!!!
My "don't let it snow" dance worked, along with my jumbo-sized can of Snow Away! [this time]. As a reward, free ice skating for all, and to all -- a good night.

[chipj29]

Let's hope, instead, the whole thing blows out to sea, and we end up with partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures. The ice that's forming in the bay looks really, really smooth and will be perfect for long-distance ice skating in a few days -- if the snow will stay away.

You got your wish, much to my dismay. :(
On the bright side, the ground is nice and frozen, as are the ponds.

[Island Girl]

Greetings from 35,000 feet in the air. For those getting an iPad for Christmas.... It is very cool!

CessnaAir dropped me off at Logan Airport around 3:15 pm. It took him 2 hours and 20 minutes to get home to Watertown, just outside of Boston. Traffic on the Mass Pike was completely stopped westbound. The roads were treacherous with less than an inch on the ground. This little storm caused lots of fender benders.

Now for the good news, the lake temp is 37 degrees... Last year the broads skimmed over at 34 degrees.

It can snow all it wants a couple of weeks after that happens!

IG, who is heading to Seattle

[ghfromaltonbay]

IG, who is heading to Seattle

Enjoy your birthday and Christmas with the little ones in the Northwest!!