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Old 01-04-2011, 07:30 PM   #1
This'nThat
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Default Another Snowstorm for Jan 7-9??

They're now talking about another possible storm this weekend, with very cold temps next week. The discussion on this is very subdued at this point -- but it could be a whopper Friday or Saturday, mainly targeting New England. Stay tuned....
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Old 01-05-2011, 03:02 PM   #2
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NWS is saying the models have the storm out to sea, south and east of where it needs to be to whack us. They say there may be a surface low extension that gives some of NE some snow - but the outlook seems to be in the inch or two range. Maybe the models will be all wrong - but it doesn't look good. We've had about 1/4" today - putting a nice fluff on things.
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Old 01-05-2011, 03:41 PM   #3
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Just as an interested casual observer, it amazes me how much shift there is in the weather models, considering they are supposed to help make the forecast more accurate. I took a look at the GFS model yesterday and it showed us getting hammered, 24 hours later not the case. That's pretty substantial considering the time lapse. So it would seem that even the computers really are not terribly accurate more than 48 hours out. With any luck the forecast will shift back to a more favorable snow forecast.
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Old 01-05-2011, 06:49 PM   #4
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I often think we were better off when Don Kent and his brains, memory, common sense and chalkboard were what we relied on for the forecast.
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Old 01-05-2011, 07:39 PM   #5
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grew up watching Don Kent and Jack Chase on the morning news
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Old 01-06-2011, 07:47 AM   #6
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Default not just the weather

Noticed how far off things have also gotten with the temperature?
A lot of people myself included had a total waste of weekend last weekend.
Right up until we left Thursday the highs up in north country were only suppose to top out in the mid to high 30’s with temps dropping down again at night. We were up in northern Maine and from Friday mid day on thru Sunday the temps never dropped below 38 with daytime highs in the 40’s.
I notice the local forecaster hasn’t said much. I got slammed for slamming his predictions which to date have been right there with the TV predictions of about 80% wrong.
The forecast for Friday started off as a possible big storm then went to nothing and since then they THINK a band of snow will set up somewhere and give somebody over 6” of snow. Predictions for this band range from New York to Maine.
No I cannot do a better job, but, when someone asks me a question that I do not know the answer to I do not pretend to know or even guess.
Why don’t they just say we don’t know and leave it at that? Then at least we are not making plans gassing up our trucks, putting on our plows and sanders and gearing up for nothing. The same with rain in the summer. How frustrating is it to have a day planed around afternoon rain and have it start pouring by 10am like it did more than once this summer.
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:01 AM   #7
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No I cannot do a better job, but, when someone asks me a question that I do not know the answer to I do not pretend to know or even guess. Why don’t they just say we don’t know and leave it at that? Then at least we are not making plans gassing up our trucks, putting on our plows and sanders and gearing up for nothing. The same with rain in the summer. How frustrating is it to have a day planed around afternoon rain and have it start pouring by 10am like it did more than once this summer.
Definition of forecast: To estimate or calculate in advance, especially to predict (weather conditions) by analysis of meteorological data.

They're not pretending to know or guessing...they're forecasting. They don't say "I don't know" because it's their job to provide a forecast, not to shrug their shoulders. And with regards to the upcoming storm, the meteorologists I've been listening to have made it clear that the models are all over the place.
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:30 AM   #8
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Wink Reminiscing

So much made of forecasting being so much more accurate in the "old days" by Don Kent and others, but I don't think that was particularly the case.

Back in my youth, we really didn't care so much about the weather forecasts. When the forecast was for rain or snow on the weekend, my Dad would say there was a 50% chance...it either will or won't. We really didn't care and we would make due with what we were dealt: Move it inside; park the car in the driveway, and set up the picnic table in the garage; wear a raincoat or poncho....you get the drift.

Snow storms would drop X amounts of snow...sometimes pretty accurate, and sometimes way off. As a kid, the only time I really cared was when the forecast was for a couple of inches and it snowed a foot. As an only child, guess who got out the shovel (what snowblower???).

Bottom line, with weather patterns basically coming to New England in three different directions (down from Canada, into N. E. from the west, and up the coast), forecasting here is difficult at best, then and now.

Before getting back to this weekend, I am reminded of a time in my youth where I came in from shovelling a huge amount of unexpected snow, turned on TV in time to hear Don Kent talking about the weather. His forecast had been for flurries and snow showers. He said he had got a call from a viewer who wanted to let Don know he had just shovelled 14 inches of flurries off his driveway.

The more technology we have, the less things change. Now back to this weekend...whatcha think Dad, 50% chance of significant snow???
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Old 01-07-2011, 07:00 AM   #9
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Default Rose

Rose I've never had a problem with the forecast predictions 2-7 days out.
My total disregard for weather forecasters stems from what I use THAT DAY to plan my work. That day means what they say is going to happen and the time line for it to happen. That means when you say at 7am it's going to rain around 3pm and it's pouring at 10am it is all still a guessing game?
Or when you predict 12" of snow the morning of the storm and we get a dusting, you call that foresacting?
Sorry it just makes no sense to me, I just don't understand how you can be so wrong so often and feel good about what you do and actually justify it.
If I ran my business like that I wouldn't have one.
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Old 01-07-2011, 10:54 AM   #10
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Thumbs down What's your point?

I would guess your business is not in the public relations field. If weather forecasting is so horrible in your mind then there must be a fantastic opportunity for a top shelf meteorologist that can make all these others look silly. You could show the rest of them how bad they are and how superior you are. Think how successfull you would be.
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Old 01-07-2011, 11:14 AM   #11
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I think what bugs me the most is not the forecasters themselves as I feel they do the best with what they have for info, but the dam over embellishment by the TV stations themselves that somehow all storms now are "apocalyptic" storms. The whole "Storm Central" and over repeated warnings that go way over board and drive people to the grocery store to stock up like somehow you might be snowed in for a month just gets absolutely ridiculous.

None of this went on when I was a kid. If a storm came, kids stayed home from school and played in the snow. There was no "Storm Central" and everyone got along just fine without all the nervousness and hoopla created by the local TV stations. Things were simpler back then and forecasters at least appeared more professional. I realize they do it for ratings, but for heavens sake it only makes them look more ridiculous when their forecast is off the mark.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program!

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Old 01-07-2011, 11:32 AM   #12
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Default follow the money..

Things like this are easy to figure out if you follow the money. the poster above who got all chapped because the forecast was "wrong" and screwed up his plans; or the contractor who stripped a roof based on a clear forecast and was foiled... aren't paying for a service as a customer.

Commercial TV stations have advertisers as their customers.. the Storm Central stuff, snowpocalypse, and all that hype - right or wrong - brings views and thus advertiser dollars. The meteorologists do not answer to the viewer...

Sure, there is some linkage as a constantly erroneous forecast could result in loss of viewership and thus ad revenue.. but this notion that the viewer is a "paying customer" and "entitled" to an accurate forecast is nonsense. That is what is wrong with the "if i ran my business that way i'd have no customers" argument.. or the similar "i wouldn't get paid at my job if i was always wrong" argument...

The fact is: they don't work for you! TV weatherpersons answer to a program director who tracks advertisment revenue. Station ownership will change anything/everything to maximize ratings. Indeed, if a non-hyped, mundane, conservative forecast became the desire of the viewership.. it would start happening tonight!

The National Weather Service, Military Weather forecasting, government weather offices are entirely different.. they have different objectives and I think their forecasts - and the way they are presented - reflect that.
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Old 01-07-2011, 11:35 AM   #13
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"snowpocalypse"... I Love it!!!
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Old 01-07-2011, 01:42 PM   #14
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The whole "Storm Central" and over repeated warnings that go way over board and drive people to the grocery store to stock up like somehow you might be snowed in for a month just gets absolutely ridiculous.

Dan
Oh but the best "Storm Central" programs must come complete with reporters standing by in the field to show just how bad it is out there. As I have said on here before so many times, how cheesy is it to see some douche bag reporter either trying to over dramatize how bad it is out there, or in fact it is that bad and they are trying to report with the wind whipping and snow blowing sideways to the point you can't hear what they are saying in the first place.

Yep it's all about ratings.
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Old 01-07-2011, 05:03 PM   #15
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Default It's all about credibility

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They're not pretending to know or guessing...they're forecasting. They don't say "I don't know" because it's their job to provide a forecast, not to shrug their shoulders. And with regards to the upcoming storm, the meteorologists I've been listening to have made it clear that the models are all over the place.
Well, if they can't be more accurate, then why bother? I mean -- if you can get away with saying anything, and then have everybody accept your excuses when you're wrong, why bother with "forecasting"?
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Old 01-07-2011, 05:05 PM   #16
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Rose I've never had a problem with the forecast predictions 2-7 days out.
My total disregard for weather forecasters stems from what I use THAT DAY to plan my work. That day means what they say is going to happen and the time line for it to happen. That means when you say at 7am it's going to rain around 3pm and it's pouring at 10am it is all still a guessing game?
Or when you predict 12" of snow the morning of the storm and we get a dusting, you call that foresacting?
Sorry it just makes no sense to me, I just don't understand how you can be so wrong so often and feel good about what you do and actually justify it.
If I ran my business like that I wouldn't have one.
Yeah, I can understand that. There are certainly meteorologists on air who hang onto their original forecasts waaaaay too long (usually for snowstorms). But short-term forecasts can be difficult, particularly in this area with that big body of water to the east. I can remember when I was in school at UMass-Lowell, I answered the phone in our weather lab and a woman from Lowell wanted to know how much snow we were going to get the next day. My answer was 10-12". Well, for reasons I don't even remember now, the NH/MA border seemed to be a very sharp dividing line between lots of snow and no snow. My boss in Derry, NH couldn't get to work, but there was bupkis in Lowell.
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Old 01-07-2011, 05:16 PM   #17
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Default Numbers please

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Well, if they can't be more accurate, then why bother? I mean -- if you can get away with saying anything, and then have everybody accept your excuses when you're wrong, why bother with "forecasting"?
Do you even know what their accuracy rate is? You complain about them not giving probabilities...if you like numbers so much give me their rate (whoever "they" are)?

You say you've programmed before. Bill Gates made a fortune providing programs that really are pieces of crap when compared to other products. I guess by your reasoning I should diss all programmers.
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Old 01-07-2011, 08:31 PM   #18
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Bill Gates made a fortune providing programs that really are pieces of crap when compared to other products. I guess by your reasoning I should diss all programmers.
If Bill Gates provides a bad weather forecast, then you have my permission to diss him. I might even join you.
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Old 01-07-2011, 08:44 PM   #19
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If Bill Gates provides a bad weather forecast, then you have my permission to diss him. I might even join you.
How about a bad Operating System? Ever use Vista? Or, for that matter, any of his Op Systems are inferior to Mac OS.
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Old 01-07-2011, 09:09 PM   #20
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If Bill Gates provides a bad weather forecast, then you have my permission to diss him. I might even join you.
You're obviously just trolling at this point, which I figured you would. Bye.
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Old 01-08-2011, 06:50 AM   #21
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Well, if they can't be more accurate, then why bother? I mean -- if you can get away with saying anything, and then have everybody accept your excuses when you're wrong, why bother with "forecasting"?
If you follow this line of thinking then I suspect you won't ever watch another TV meteorologist(??)

If you don't want hype, and most of us don't, as stated earlier just use the wealth of information available from the NWS offices in Gray, Maine and Boston. Their technical discussions are second to none on what might or might not happen. No hype and no ad revenue or ratings to worry about.
The links to each office are below.

For the record, IMHO, the Boston TV Market (#7 in the country) has two or three of the best meteorologists in the country. We are very lucky in that sense and those of us who really follow the weather and it's science appreciate them.

BT

Boston Office Technical Discussion

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

Gray, Maine Office Technical Discussion

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off
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Old 01-08-2011, 01:15 PM   #22
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How about a bad Operating System? Ever use Vista? Or, for that matter, any of his Op Systems are inferior to Mac OS.
Well the free market says otherwise. Apple has been around LONGER than Microsoft if anything Apple should rule the operating system world yet why don't they if the product is so superior? The consumer market has rejected it for a reason. Proprietary software that runs on a proprietary platform where the cost point is not competitive. That is why Microsoft rules the desktop market share, and in time if free distributions of Linux continue to surface that rival Microsoft, they will more than likely in time take over. Mac will remain as it always has on the sidelines as a irrelevant player no matter how "good" the MAC crowd touts it to be. Nothing proves that point more than the iPhone. While the idea was cool and innovative terrible marketing is killing it and all the knock offs are going to crush it in the long term. Heck they already are.

Finally say what you want about Bill Gates, there is no question he has done and continues to do a significant amount of charity work now, which is a lot more than you can say of Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO.
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Old 01-08-2011, 01:34 PM   #23
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I'm confused, will Microsoft or Apple produce a better snow storm on Jan 6=>9 ?
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Old 01-08-2011, 01:40 PM   #24
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grew up watching Don Kent and Jack Chase on the morning news
Me too. I lived in Wollaston in Quincy and in those day's he would broadcast from his rug business on Wollaston Beach near the the Quincy and Squantum Yacht Clubs
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Old 01-08-2011, 01:48 PM   #25
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This guy beats them all:

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Old 01-08-2011, 03:30 PM   #26
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I look at it this way,early am becoming partly brighter-midday brightest part of day becoming darker as evening approaches and complete darknes late night. Any precipitation is a guess,sorry it's New England give it thirty minutes it'll change. I remember blizzard of "78" was gonna be a dustin,well that was one helluva dusting.
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Old 01-08-2011, 03:39 PM   #27
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Well the free market says otherwise. Apple has been around LONGER than Microsoft if anything Apple should rule the operating system world yet why don't they if the product is so superior? The consumer market has rejected it for a reason. Proprietary software that runs on a proprietary platform where the cost point is not competitive.
No offense, but you sound very ill-equipped to argue one side or the other in this conversation.

In most product markets the volume leader is NOT the highest quality product, it is the product with the mid-point price.

Microsoft has been steadily losing market share while Apple has been steadily gaining. If you are talking about operating systems, then they are both equal amounts of "proprietary". I'm not sure how you counter that Apple hardware is proprietary, in fact a moderate group of people buy Apple laptops for their higher aesthetics and build quality, and then run Windows on them. Seems like if it was a proprietary platform you wouldn't be able to do that so easily.

The length of time either company has been in existence is also of little real concern. The consumer personal computer business didn't really start in significant volumes until the Internet become popular in the mid-90's, long after both companies had been established.
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Old 01-08-2011, 08:33 PM   #28
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Microsoft has been steadily losing market share while Apple has been steadily gaining.
While I don't disagree with your statement, Apple market share is somewhere between 7 and 10 percent, depending on which report you follow.

Far from the growing market share dominance that many would have you believe. Even if you limit it to just phones, Droids have been outselling Apple, 2-to-1 for the past few quarters.
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Old 01-08-2011, 09:54 PM   #29
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While I don't disagree with your statement, Apple market share is somewhere between 7 and 10 percent, depending on which report you follow.

Far from the growing market share dominance that many would have you believe. Even if you limit it to just phones, Droids have been outselling Apple, 2-to-1 for the past few quarters.
Well first off, let's not confuse the statistics between desktop OS market share (Windows, OS X, etc.) and mobile devices. Although both categories have a lot of the same companies in common, they are very different markets.

You would certainly expect Droid mobile phone handsets to outsell the iPhone, if you want to talk about the mobile platform. There are a dozen manufacturers of handsets using the Droid OS, and I think they are on every single cell phone carrier in the US. Apple has 1 handset, the iPhone, and it's been on 1 carrier in the US (this is finally changing next month).

In general Apple's approach has been to deliver a more elegant, better-engineered and robust platform than Microsoft. Google, with Droid and Chrome desktop is stealing more marketshare from Microsoft than Apple.

At the end of the day, OS wars are silly. There are many choices and users are free to choose whatever suits them best. All companies have areas where they excel greatly, and areas where they could stand to improve. Google doesn't really have a full desktop OS yet, but Microsoft and Apple are both multi-billion dollar companies in the OS market. To assert that either of them are not making a "popular" or usable product is just silly.
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Old 01-08-2011, 10:52 PM   #30
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Microsoft and Apple are both multi-billion dollar companies in the OS market. To assert that either of them are not making a "popular" or usable product is just silly.
The fact remains, Microsoft is more popular, primarily because they sold their OS to other hardware companies and application developers, whereas Apple's OS is tied to Apple hardware. And any quality differences are not a factor. No one forces people to buy PCs with Windows. People have a choice, and the 91% market share by Microsoft shows that Microsoft quality is more than sufficient. I, for one, don't have a problem with the current Windows technology. Just as long as Bill Gates stays out of the weather forecasting business, I will continue to buy Microsoft products.
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Old 01-09-2011, 07:19 AM   #31
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Default Marty

This is the all time favorite weatherman among true NH natives.

'Marty on the Mountain'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNATQANryFc

His forecasts are definitely 'spot on'!
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Old 01-09-2011, 09:00 PM   #32
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No offense, but you sound very ill-equipped to argue one side or the other in this conversation.

In most product markets the volume leader is NOT the highest quality product, it is the product with the mid-point price.

Microsoft has been steadily losing market share while Apple has been steadily gaining. If you are talking about operating systems, then they are both equal amounts of "proprietary". I'm not sure how you counter that Apple hardware is proprietary, in fact a moderate group of people buy Apple laptops for their higher aesthetics and build quality, and then run Windows on them. Seems like if it was a proprietary platform you wouldn't be able to do that so easily.

The length of time either company has been in existence is also of little real concern. The consumer personal computer business didn't really start in significant volumes until the Internet become popular in the mid-90's, long after both companies had been established.
I have 17 years experience as certified systems administrator and architect.

Not going to argue best of breed. What I will say however is that anyone who runs a business is not going to use something that does not give them good return on investment. That doesn't mean Microsoft is or ever has been the end all be all solution to everything, but they were successful in reaching a market penetration of 95% on all desktops world wide. Yes now they are loosing some market share to Linux. That's a good thing, healthy competition in the market place will lead to better choices and products for the consumers out there.

What both Linux and Windows provide is an operating system that can run on virtually anything and do it pretty well. With virtualization, SAAS and cloud computing becoming more widely adopted that will result in these two operating systems domination in the marketplace for the foreseeable future.
The days of operating systems that run only on specific hardware platforms are numbered and have been for some time especially for large scale operations mostly due to exorbitant costs of hardware, support and big dollar salaries going to IT guys with the skills to deal with them. Sun Solaris, HP-UX and IBM's AIX will all suffer.

That's the corporate market, consumers are going to buy what they familiar with, comfortable with using and again has an attractive price point. This is why MAC never got any traction or wide adoption comparatively speaking. Not to say that it will not retain a nitch customer base as it will, but it will never equate to a significant percentage of the overall market share. The fact Apple is still around today is not on the success of the MAC, but the portable electronic devices they now produce. Whether that holds or not will depend on how successful the knock offs are, as previously pointed out the droid is outselling the iphone by a 2-1 margin. That is not good news for Apple lovers.

Enough said, this thread was supposed to be for weather... let's stick to that!
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