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Old 07-02-2010, 07:28 AM   #1
CanisLupusArctos
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Default Fantastic July 4 weekend weather

This upcoming July 4 weekend will feature some of the most perfect weather we've had for this particular weekend in quite some time. High pressure has been to our west for the last couple of days, giving us a northwest air flow (from Canada.) The High will take its (clockwise) circulation offshore of the east coast this weekend which means we'll be getting the opposite airflow on its other side -- the warm air from the south.

If you don't like humidity, keep those windows open for the next 24 hours or so, and chill your house off tonight. The heat and humidity will begin to build on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night will be a warm overnight, in the 60s. Sunday's temps will go up from there. It looks like we'll be in the lower 90s with high humidity on both Sunday (July 4) and Monday (everyone's day off.)

The heat is expected to last through most of next week. It is possible that by Tuesday we will have an official heat wave -- a minimum of 3 consecutive days of 90+ temps.

This is quite a stroke of luck for this area, given the way summer weather has been the last couple of years, and considering that the last couple days have been so fall-like across the northeastern US that it snowed on Mt. Washington yesterday (July 1.) There have also been late season snows in the Rocky Mountains, and severe thunderstorms across the country this year have been dropping some very large hail (softball size). It is all an indicator of cold air being overly available (overstaying its welcome?) nationwide.

With such a trend, there has been plenty of reason to think this 'big weekend' for the lakes region might be cool and unsettled as it was last year. But, celebrate! That will NOT be the case.

The water temperature is now 69 degrees (at Black Cat Island WeatherCenter after reaching 76 degrees during the high humidity last weekend, when the dewpoint reached 72. The water temp is greatly affected by the humidity. In humid weather the water does not lose much surface heat to the evaporation process, so it stores the sun's energy all day and does not lose much of it overnight. The last few days have given the region an autumn-like dryness, with dewpoints in the lower 40s at times. Dewpoints will be on the rise again, and when they do, so will the water temperature.
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Old 07-02-2010, 07:32 AM   #2
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Hi Canis
I have a weather question for you
Why is my corner of the lake windy a majority of the time when the rest is not
I am located down near the Margate in Paugus Bay
I am sitting here inside right now at about 62 degrees with a constant wind, but as soon as you leave our little bend which is in line with Little Island (again on the same side of the Margate) the wind dissappears
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Old 07-02-2010, 08:00 AM   #3
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The lake is a quirky place for weather, as many boaters have discovered. It's a horizontal version of the White Mountains. When I started winter climbing, I discovered that the "knee" of Lion's Head (on Mt. Washington) is sometimes windier than the summit.

For similar reasons your point on the lake has its wind. To find the real reason ( a solid conclusion) one would have to conduct a study that would involve a couple of weather buoys and temporary land-based stations, etc. It would be the kind of thing someone might do for senior research project for a bachelor's degree in meteorology.

My guess is that the dominant wind direction in this area (NW to SE) is interacting with the shape of the shoreline in a certain way. The lake is like a horizontal version of the White Mountains. When wind is forced to bend around a point of land or squeeze between islands, it speeds up. It does the same thing when it is forced to bend over a mountain peak, or squeeze between two peaks. Same concept as when you put your thumb over the end of a garden hose -- the water speeds up.

But I would guess that the wind patterns on this big lake are not that simple. The shoreline shape is not simple. If you picture air flow as an invisible stream on the lake, there are probably many eddies, whirlpools, and rapids in various places on the lake, and many of them relocate every time the wind direction changes.

At this station, the wind is almost constant and calm days are rare, even when the rest of the area is having a calm day. Go over to the other side of the island and many times there's no wind at all. Sometimes when returning home on a breezy day, I find that it becomes a mini-hurricane as I near the house.

This lake sure does have some interesting, highly-localized weather!
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Old 07-04-2010, 04:53 PM   #4
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Default cloudy all day for the 4th

and temps struggled to get to the low 80's for a couple of hours.. what happened??!!
(at least in Moultonboro)
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Old 07-05-2010, 09:16 AM   #5
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There was a minor disturbance that passed over the region yesterday. Satellite imagery through the day showed a small batch of clouds over central NH. When daytime heating was at its max, the clouds, also, were at their max and grew in areal coverage.

Yesterday those clouds got thick enough to generate some rain columns over the lake, that didn't reach the surface. The rain was evaporating before reaching. The evaporation process consumes heat. Temperatures here dropped when those rain columns were visible, and re-stabilized when they went away.

All the activity faded when daylight waned.

This morning's weathermap shows that minor disturbance southeast of Cape Cod. The next minor disturbance is tomorrow. It'll touch off a few thunderstorms in the humid air.

This heat is coming from somewhere -- the southern US. This area is now hot because the heat has made a northbound trip from its permanent residence. At some point on that trip, it runs into the cooler air that permanently resides to our north. If the cooler air puts up a fight, we get weather. Whenever the cooler air decides to reclaim its territory, we get fun weather. Fun for meteorologists.

While we're getting a heat wave in New England, we're on the northern end of the same warm air mass that's parked over the eastern US. Unlike points farther south of here, we're getting a little bit of disturbed weather to go along with the heat because we're closer to the permanent residence of the cooler air.
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Old 07-10-2010, 03:27 PM   #6
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Default 4th O' July weather

The weather was beatiful on the 4th in Center Harbor for the fireworks. Without a few clouds, you can't have Awesome sunsets !
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Old 07-11-2010, 12:28 PM   #7
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We had a great sunset last night. And a rainbow too. And some more lake fell from the sky.
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