Predictions for summer weather

[hancoveguy]

Calling all weather people-

I know I have read many a weather prediction on this site. I also know there are many pro or semi pro weather people on here.

Heres the question...

Does anyone have any early predictions as to what the summer weather pattern will bring us?

I am guessing or rather hoping for long hot and dry, but who isn't.

Look forward to hearing the forum's thoughts based on anything; the farmer's almanac, the winter weather, or whatever else a person can make a guess on.

HCG

[Island Girl]

It will be a nice long, hot and dry summer. The lake will warm to 80 degrees and there will be little wind.

...ok, I can wish, can't I? And, we are due... the last two summers have been too cold and rainy

IG

[corollaman]

Well, according to the 2010 Farmer's Almanac, it's going to be a bit cooler than average, but dry. They were right about the winter, they said a lot of snow in the south, and it really did snow a lot! So, hopefully they are right about the summer too. Their forecast is an improvement of last summer.

[fatlazyless]

For the last three or four years it seems like the weather pattern from May 15 to August 15 has been cooler and wetter with temps in the 60's and long spells of light intermittant rain and fog. Very good for growing mold and mildew on any horizontal surface where the water sets without draining like on a sidewalk or a deck.

[trfour]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

For the last three or four years it seems like the weather pattern from May 15 to August 15 has been cooler and wetter with temps in the 60's and long spells of light intermittant rain and fog. Very good for growing mold and mildew on any horizontal surface where the water sets without draining like on a sidewalk or a deck.

It seems lately that our anti buddy Al, is loosing favor to Mother Nature... However, your still a good kid over here.
Now, I have enjoyed all of the four seasons for many years and they have mostly been favorable to me, ( a little give and take ), ...
Just remember that politics and Mother Nature do not in the mix?

The first day of spring saw tons of snow here in Texas today, and we never heard a word from Al!!...

Anecdote to this story?

Mother Nature Came Long Before Politics, and + - she will prevail. Yes we Will and Can!!

Love


Terry
______________________________

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

For the last three or four years it seems like the weather pattern from May 15 to August 15 has been cooler and wetter with temps in the 60's and long spells of light intermittant rain and fog.

This weather pattern is due to the fact that we purchased our cabin on the lake and spend most of our time there during this time period. I suspect the trend will continue until we change the time we visit or sell the place. Pray I do not bring a snowblower to New Hampshire.

[gtxrider]

As Al Sleet would say "Dark at night with gradual light towards morning."

There will be some rain, some sun, some wind, some HOT days some cool days, some nice days, some bad days.

I would bet NO SNOW!

[lake4life]

Assuming we have a summer is going on a limb these days.

[chipj29]

Summer could come early this year. I think we might hit 80 in early April.

Last year we got some warm temps in early spring also. That led to a very cool beginning of summer, right through July. Let's hope that history does not repeat itself!

[corollaman]

Originally Posted by chipj29

Summer could come early this year. I think we might hit 80 in early April.

Last year we got some warm temps in early spring also. That led to a very cool beginning of summer, right through July. Let's hope that history does not repeat itself!

Yeah, I'm up for 80's in April again. Let it last right thru October!

[Lucky1]

Sitting here in the rain and happy as can be. Bring on summer as any summer at the lake is wonderful!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by chipj29

Summer could come early this year. I think we might hit 80 in early April.

Last year we got some warm temps in early spring also. That led to a very cool beginning of summer, right through July. Let's hope that history does not repeat itself!

It is worth noting that the early heat of last year was a function of wind direction plus dry air, which could happen at any time in spring. We had a warm/dry air mass. It wasn't a tropical air mass like we typically see arriving from the south in springtime.

Without wind, we probably would have stayed in the 60s during the early heat last spring. However, the wind picked up from the west, and became strong. To the west of the populated New England coast are mountains. When air is rapidly transported "down-slope," it rapidly gains pressure. If you remember any intro-level chemistry class you took, you might recall the teacher saying something about gasses heating up when pressurized. If you fill an air tank (Scuba, Firefighter air bottle, oxygen cylinder, etc.) you will note that the tank is quite warm right after you fill it. Rapid pressurization heats air up.

However, lots of moisture in the air keeps it from changing temperature rapidly, because the moisture is microscopic water, and water changes temperature more slowly.

Usually in New England, when we get heat, it comes from the Gulf of Mexico, which means it's a humid heat. Air like that is going to have a hard time changing temp quickly.

Last spring we got a nice springtime air mass from off the continent, which meant it was dry. Then the wind kicked in from the west. When that happened, every place that was downwind of a much higher elevation saw the temp suddenly spike into the 90s. There was no mugginess or dampness in the air to prevent it from rapidly changing temperature as it descended in elevation, becoming more and more pressurized as it went. You may also recall that fire danger at the time was incredibly high-- a function of the dryness and strong wind.

We had the battle of the seasons after that, as the gulf moisture tried and tried to push northward but kept running into blockades from the north. Basically, the winter pattern held through the summer, and we had lots of chilly rain that would have been lots of snow if it had been February.

The Gulf of Mexico air mass that is the trademark of New England summer finally reached here for a couple of weeks in August, and then we went back into the winter pattern.

That pattern progressed until an El Nino formed in the Pacific, diverting the jet stream winds over North America for the winter. It's breaking down now.

What will happen next? Will the pattern return to what it was for so long before the El Nino formed? Will a normal summer pattern finally establish itself for more than a couple of weeks this year?

I don't think anyone can claim to know. This winter has taught many meteorologists in the northeast that there are many more variables to consider than we've been accustomed to considering, and the computer models haven't been doing incredibly well with it. Notice how the southern and mid-Atlantic snows this winter were not that impressive in the 5-day outlooks. Forecasts for all that weather grew in the last couple days before it began. Who would've thought that so many blizzards would hit the northeast coast, with accumulating snow falling even at the Gulf coast, with Florida experiencing the coldest winter in 30 years, while New England got a winter that really wasn't winter at all?

With stuff like that happening, it's safe to say that whatever weather happens in the 7-10 day timeframe is "somewhat educated" guesswork. Beyond 10 days is really anyone's guess. Modern technology hasn't gotten that far yet.

That said, guessing the summer weather at the lake can be great fun. And with the latest annual iceout guessing contest now over, why not have some fun with a summer weather guessing contest? Let the games begin!

[Island Girl]

Thanks, CLA, for the science lessons. You are always very informative.

My late husband used to talk about the Bermuda High. If that did not settle in by sometime in June, we would get the cool rainy summers we had the last two years. I just keep watching the jetstream for that each year as he was right about that.

Intellicast used to have an easy to read jetstream map and a forecast map. Now it is more graphic and more difficult for novices like me to understand. I just want to see the bubble in the jetstream!

IG

[SIKSUKR]

The Bermuda high works like a heat pump for us in the northeast. Air moves clockwise around a high so with a big high pressure located around Bermuda, the flow comes out of the south to us and pumps in hot southern weather. It also tends to keep the jet stream well north of us.

[SteveA]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Thanks, CLA, for the science lessons. You are always very informative. IG

I agree, but I just wish CLA could make the predictions nice and simple to understand.

Like this web page:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre...ay/fxus05.html

Seriously, Thanks CLA

I love this subtitle for the report.

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

[CanisLupusArctos]

What I'd like to know, SteveA, is if one of your cats may be able to help us predict summer weather. Got any kitties who can serve as summertime weather mascots for the forum?

[hancoveguy]

Originally Posted by hancoveguy

Calling all weather people-

I know I have read many a weather prediction on this site. I also know there are many pro or semi pro weather people on here.

Heres the question...

Does anyone have any early predictions as to what the summer weather pattern will bring us?

I am guessing or rather hoping for long hot and dry, but who isn't.

Look forward to hearing the forum's thoughts based on anything; the farmer's almanac, the winter weather, or whatever else a person can make a guess on.

HCG

Well, if the recent weather is any indicator, my optimism is increasing daily...Keep all fingers crossed this weather keeps getting better.

[Hughie]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=1

For what it's worth, the 3 month outlook from the NOAA. They are forecasting 50-50 chance of normal temperatures. The not so good news, above normal rainfall.
Short term next couple of weeks look for warming periods followed by cooler spells.
Remember what ever happens with the weather "It's the only weather you got."

[trfour]

Of our planet, Mother Nature Rules our lease on life. OH and yes, we fight back as best we can, and when She makes us Smile, Noth'in better!

[SIKSUKR]

I have a less positive outlook for the weather and the upcoming summer. It is very unusual to have much more than a couple degree swing in the average temperature for the year. The temps have been far above normal for a few months now so I suspect we will have to see just the opposite in the coming months. If were lucky those below normal temps I foresee will hold off until fall.

[This'nThat]

Temperature and Precipitation

[dpg]

Let it be known I'm officially predicting a hot kind of muggy summer this year. Really, that's what I think we'll see.

[VtSteve]

I predict that July through the end of August will be average to higher than average temps. A drought will exist between 5:00 am and Midnight each day, with light rains falling between the hours of 2:00 am and 4:00 am every third day. Humidity will remain in the 50% comfort zone, with sunny days outnumbering partly cloudy days by a seven to one margin.

[jmen24]

Well for New Hampshire weather this year I am predicting that it will be variable, different each day and nothing like the weather we remember when we were younger.

[hancoveguy]

here we go again. yesterday the weather for next weekend at the lake was mid eighties both days with less than a 10% chance of showers. Now, 24 hours later and now that I have made plans to put the boat in, mother nature has seen fit to begin to ruin another season...

Weather for the weekend is now low 70's with 60% chance of rain.
Welcome to New England!!!!

Anyone wanna buy a cottage?

[jmen24]

Originally Posted by hancoveguy

Anyone wanna buy a cottage?

Yup, I am more than willing to barter trade!