If my memory still serves me, this is a 50/50 risk
, The Mt was in dry dock the winter of 2004/05 and again in 2010/11. 2010/11 was the winter of the engine change. There were 6 years between the 2004/05 and the 2010/11 dry docking, so we are one to three years away, unless they are having an issue.
Just my opinion and I could be wrong on the dates.
R2B