My money's on the coolant hose, even though the "lake end" of it is less that two inches in diameter (more like 1"). The U joint bellows will eventually sink an unattended boat, but there isn't enough of an opening to sink a boat that's got a working bilge pump and a good battery. The water would have to leak through the gimbal bearing, between the races, which is packed full of grease, a cage, and rollers, and therefore offers no "easy" path for the water to flow.
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