Thoughts on Earl
The forecast is a tough one for the lakes region. I still like CLA's Nor'easter forecast, but it will be a short duration Nor'easter, somewhat intense for awhile.
This is what I believe we have. The track will be very close to Nantucket, within 30 miles to the east and perhaps closer. The storm will be moving fast and that will decrease the apparent winds on the left side (west) of the storm. The storm will be dying, which is likely to make it larger in size, more spread out than compact. There is one computer model that brings the center into eastern Long Island (the one in NY). If that model is correct, things here will be much worse, but most think that model is wrong.
The official track has the storm center passing 150 miles or so from the middle of the lake. That is good. I do not think we are going to see winds over 40 MPH, but I think we are in for a period of rain, perhaps an inch or two overall, maybe more. CLA is the man when it comes to local effects on precipitation that come from the mountains and terrain, and to his points on this, some will get more and some will get less.
I think the wind will be around longer on the back side of the storm, into Sunday with a strong NW breeze, white caps in the broads. This is good for some boats and not so good for others. The outside of Rattlesnake will be a bear this weekend.
The storm is still 36 hours out, so things can change a little, but have significant local impacts. IF, the storm jogs to the west and goes inside of Nantucket and over Cape Cod, this will cause a big impact there. For us, it will only mean more rain. Tropical weather is very local!
So, this is no Carol, but it is the strongest tropical storm we have had in this region in almost 20 years. Ninteen years ago, Bob cut through Cape Cod with significant damage there while the Boston area northward saw little damage. That was the last big tropical storm, and right now this one looks to be east of where Bob hit.
Stay tuned to the weather as things can change.
R2B
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