Everything is in place
This morning, once again, there was a 100-foot-thick layer of fog hanging over the ice. During the winter, fog is a good sign of a rapidly diminishing snow pack, and it's not much different with lake ice instead of snow. What's key is that the temp was above freezing (35) this morning. With 100% humidity (fog) there was no possibility for evaporation in open parts of the lake to cool the surface below freezing. Therefore the water temp had a much higher starting point once the sun came up.
Iceout seems set to occur as soon as "the last straw" falls. The water temp here is playing with the 40-degree mark at the surface and has remained 39 underneath. The temp around the area is now pretty uniform at 71 degrees while we're 52 on the island. Once again the SE wind has kicked up, driven by this temperature difference between land and lake.
While I don't see strong wind in the forecast, I still see the mainland hitting 80 tomorrow and I see shifting winds.
For the past few days we've been locked into this lake breeze which has blown all the ice up from SE to NW where it's been locked against the islands and shorelines. It needs stirring, and I think we have a shot at getting a little stirring tomorrow and Thursday.
Winds will shift into the SW tomorrow as a cold front approaches (winds ahead of a cold front tend to blow along it.) Tomorrow night the front will pass, causing winds to shift into the NW. Any ice that remains after tomorrow's heat will likely endure the cold front's rain showers and then get blown back down to the Barndoor end of the lake when the front passes.
|