Quote:
Originally Posted by Resident 2B
CLA,
Your 3 hour video is great, as is the rest of your weather site. It is full of very useful information that adds real value to this forum and to all with a lakes region weather interest.
The ability to see conditions around the lake on days like this really help in assessing how quickly the ice is melting. Today the ice is really cooling the air in places where the wind is off the lake. As you pointed out, what is really happening is that the ice is sucking in heat from the air and melting very quickly. I am now confident in an April ice-out date. I was thinking May a few days ago.
Thanks for providing this service to all of us!
R2B
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Your'e welcome. The site is a part of a dream fulfilled, one that I had since before the technology was there to support it (as in, "Wouldn't it be cool if...") So thank you and all for your interest in it - makes it worthwhile. It's also great forecasting weather alongside you and Rose, and others when they chime in - makes me see things I overlook or never knew.
Well... about iceout... it was fun to ride from Moultonborough to Center Harbor this morning with the windows down. It was about 70 in Moultonborough and then when I got to about the savings bank in Center Harbor, a cold blast of air came in the window. This was from the southeast wind coming ashore there, with the heat sucked out of it by the ice.
I've noticed as the ice has taken a much grayer tone in the last 3 hours (Thank you Grant for pointing that out) the air has also been warmer today. Not as much heat has been sucked out of the air in the last 3 hours. We started the day with a 15-degree temp difference between here and the mainland, and now we're down to about a 10-degree difference. In response, the "lake breeze" has also slowed down. This tells me the ice may be nearing its capacity for heat absorption and is therefore ready to darken right into the lake as Grant said.
Here is my prediction for iceout: Wednesday. My reasoning is that today the ice is near its capacity for heat absorption. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today, which should separate and slushify the ice. That will make it especially vulnerable to Wednesday's summery forecast. I'm going for 79-83 around the lakes region with a few places like Concord or Plymouth perhaps touching 85. Islands and immediate shorelines should be around 75. This heat will probably melt enough of the ice to make it official. If not Wednesday, then definitely Thursday or Friday.
IG has a great point however: New boaters beware! "Right after iceout" is not a good time to go boating unless you really know what you're doing. There's usually debris in the lake, a few leftover icebergs hiding, and the biggest thing is the cold water. In any boat ride the operator(s) have to be ready for "person overboard." In this cold water, anyone who falls overboard is probably in a 911 situation unless you can get them back aboard within seconds. Unlike summertime water, this cold water makes it very, very difficult for a person overboard to cooperate or help with their own rescue, so the burden falls primarily on others. Also, anyone who has been overboard or who takes a good splash from over the rail is going to get hypothermia quickly unless they have a way to dry off and warm up right away.