What he said
Pepper, what R2B said is right-on. Surface temp is highly sensitive to the heat of the day, and I am monitoring where the ice is out. The 10-foot-deep probe is near the edge of the ice pack, and down. But even that has been warming up... just more slowly.
The surface water has been highly sensitive also to the very dry conditions lately. Water evaps more quickly from the lake surface which cools it, and after dark on a clear calm night, that means the surface water temp will drop rapidly (this is how it usually freezes in the first place.) When we start getting humid nights, you may notice the surface water stays the same or doesn't drop much overnight. Last summer when the humidity was thickest of the year, we had a night where the surface temp even rose a little overnight. That night the dewpoint was in the mid-70s and my air conditioner was practically wheezing and choking on it.
You also probably guessed right in saying there's a current. In the time lapse today (several times) I saw chunks of ice following a certain pattern through the open water, rather than going in a straight line with the wind, which told me a current has probably developed in the open water. If true, it's another sign that the lake is "trying to shed the ice."
Nature is so fun to watch.
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