Quote:
Originally Posted by chipj29
Summer could come early this year. I think we might hit 80 in early April.
Last year we got some warm temps in early spring also. That led to a very cool beginning of summer, right through July. Let's hope that history does not repeat itself!
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It is worth noting that the early heat of last year was a function of wind direction plus dry air, which could happen at any time in spring. We had a warm/dry air mass. It wasn't a tropical air mass like we typically see arriving from the south in springtime.
Without wind, we probably would have stayed in the 60s during the early heat last spring. However, the wind picked up from the west, and became strong. To the west of the populated New England coast are mountains. When air is rapidly transported "down-slope," it rapidly gains pressure. If you remember any intro-level chemistry class you took, you might recall the teacher saying something about gasses heating up when pressurized. If you fill an air tank (Scuba, Firefighter air bottle, oxygen cylinder, etc.) you will note that the tank is quite warm right after you fill it. Rapid pressurization heats air up.
However, lots of moisture in the air keeps it from changing temperature rapidly, because the moisture is microscopic water, and water changes temperature more slowly.
Usually in New England, when we get heat, it comes from the Gulf of Mexico, which means it's a humid heat. Air like that is going to have a hard time changing temp quickly.
Last spring we got a nice springtime air mass from off the continent, which meant it was dry. Then the wind kicked in from the west. When that happened, every place that was downwind of a much higher elevation saw the temp suddenly spike into the 90s. There was no mugginess or dampness in the air to prevent it from rapidly changing temperature as it descended in elevation, becoming more and more pressurized as it went. You may also recall that fire danger at the time was incredibly high-- a function of the dryness and strong wind.
We had the battle of the seasons after that, as the gulf moisture tried and tried to push northward but kept running into blockades from the north. Basically, the winter pattern held through the summer, and we had lots of chilly rain that would have been lots of snow if it had been February.
The Gulf of Mexico air mass that is the trademark of New England summer finally reached here for a couple of weeks in August, and then we went back into the winter pattern.
That pattern progressed until an El Nino formed in the Pacific, diverting the jet stream winds over North America for the winter. It's breaking down now.
What will happen next? Will the pattern return to what it was for so long before the El Nino formed? Will a normal summer pattern finally establish itself for more than a couple of weeks this year?
I don't think anyone can claim to know. This winter has taught many meteorologists in the northeast that there are many more variables to consider than we've been accustomed to considering, and the computer models haven't been doing incredibly well with it. Notice how the southern and mid-Atlantic snows this winter were not that impressive in the 5-day outlooks. Forecasts for all that weather grew in the last couple days before it began. Who would've thought that so many blizzards would hit the northeast coast, with accumulating snow falling even at the Gulf coast, with Florida experiencing the coldest winter in 30 years, while New England got a winter that really wasn't winter at all?
With stuff like that happening, it's safe to say that whatever weather happens in the 7-10 day timeframe is "somewhat educated" guesswork. Beyond 10 days is really anyone's guess. Modern technology hasn't gotten that far yet.
That said, guessing the summer weather at the lake can be great fun. And with the latest annual iceout guessing contest now over, why not have some fun with a summer weather guessing contest? Let the games begin!