DO NOT BUY INTO MEDIA HYPE. Rather, know how to search for and find real information. Then learn as best you can to evaluate the information, to take seriously what you should, and to disregard anything that's just hype.
First, see my above post about hurricanes and Nor'easters being similar. The Blizzard of January 2005 triggered hurricane warnings along the New England coast. Since it was not a tropical-origin storm, they had to call it a "hurricane force wind warning." The red-and-black flags were flying at the coast, and the waves pounded over houses causing them to become encased in ice that protected them from wave damage thereafter. Back in February, we had 90 mph winds along the coast (60 mph inland) from a powerful nor'easter that did a lot of tree and powerline damage, as you may recall.
In other words, we shouldn't be strangers to this stuff. Just keep your eyes on it, and remember hurricanes (as opposed to winter versions of the same) hit our trees during the growing season when they are less able to withstand strong wind.
Currently, Earl is forecast to make its closest pass to New England -- just southeast of Cape Cod -- on Friday night and early Saturday morning. When it is in that position, winds would be blowing from the east or southeast over Maine and NH. The hurricane-force winds would be offshore, but tropical storm conditions could reach as far north and west as the NH seacoast.
However, this lake's shape -- surrounded by mountains on three sides and open to the southeast -- often allows winds blowing from the east or southeast to reach inland as far as Center Harbor. This proves true during seabreezes and also in coastal storms during the winter. The same will likely be true of Hurricane Earl.
The strongest winds from Earl will likely be during the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday, IF the current forecast track holds true. They would be from the southeast.
The other effect of Earl here in the lakes region will be to end this burst of summer weather and bring autumn conditions for most of the upcoming weekend. The approaching cold air mass has already overtaken the western states, bringing snow to the higher elevations and widespread frost in Nevada and Oregon. This is the same cold air mass that is likely to push Earl offshore.
Earl's vortex will help to draw the cold air toward the south and east, over New England. When Earl has passed -- regardless of the track it takes -- expect the winds on its backside to behave much like those on the backside of any passing nor'easter in wintertime: Winds will blow from the northwest and generate whitecaps on the lake, temperatures will drop (highs around 70 on Saturday) and the air will become dry.
As with the passage of any strong cold front, leftover moisture in the wake of Earl will leave the northern summits in the clouds with strong winds and wintry temperatures for a couple of days -- perhaps with snow, sleet, and rime ice. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR HIKING ABOVE TREELINE THIS WEEKEND.
IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR BOATING ON SATURDAY... expect conditions to be like autumn: Gusty winds from the northwest will likely create whitecaps with 1-2 foot waves at the Center Harbor end, and perhaps 4-foot waves in The Broads.
This is an early prediction only, and a lot could change.
|