According to the National Hurricane Center, the typical error in forecast track, 5 days in advance, is 200-300 miles. That is why they post the "cone of uncertainty." The "official" forecast track is always in the dead-center of that cone, but the cone represents a typical margin of error. It's all done by mathematics based on past situations, and the math is done by computers, which were built and programmed by humans. Hence, error.
Anyone along the New England coast should now be paying attention to weather forecasts.
One important thing to remember is that MOST hurricanes that hit New England are no worse than a spectacular nor'easter in wintertime. The difference is, hurricanes come at a time when the leaves are on the trees. Lots of rain soaks the ground, loosening tree roots. The trunks are full of water that they're drawing from the ground. The leaves act as sails, and the trees blow over.
The same trees, in a winter storm of equal magnitude, might find themselves frozen into the ground, dormant for the season (drawing no water into their trunks,) and with no leaves on the branches to act as sails. So they survive the winter wind.
Typical hurricane effects in New England: A lot of trees down, and possible road washouts -- very similar to what we had in the nor'easters of earlier this year -- that is what I might expect IF we got a more direct hit from Earl than is now expected.
We could certainly use the rain. The dryness of autumn brings increased wildfire risk to New England. This year's wildfire season is on track to have a bit more snap, crackle, and pop than usual, thanks to the very dry conditions we've had for quite a while now.
One effect I am pretty sure will happen, regardless: Summer, with its high water temps in the lake, will pretty much be done when Earl passes. That is because Earl's "whirlpool in the atmosphere" will draw down the autumn air from Canada into New England.
Remember how those Nor'easters pass, and as soon as the rain/snow stops, the wind suddenly starts howling out of the northwest as skies clear? I would expect that to be the case with Earl also, whether it goes off the coast or comes right into New England first.
There will be a Canadian cold front approaching from the west at the same time as Earl approaches from the south. The cold front may actually force Earl out to sea if it wins the race. Only time will tell.
In either case, the backside of Earl will be very similar to the backside of any winter storm: Winds start blowing out of the northwest, skies clear, temps plummet, the air dries out.... "Greetings from Canada" will then become our weather.
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