Quote:
Originally Posted by Grady223
So, Wolf Man - you're talking mid May?!
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It's hard to say when last year's ice would've gone out, had it not been for the April 16 storm. I'm guessing it probably would've been early May before it could've been official. It always gets hung up on that official bit for a couple days, it seems. It gets to the point where most of us can't see any ice, but Flyguy and satellite imagery show clearly that the MOUNT's path is blocked somewhere.
Also, this year, the ice remained thicker than it looked pretty late. It was only a week ago we had snowmobiles going from Center Harbor down to Five-Mile and Bear. I was about to say "That ice is looking pretty weak now" until I heard the engines approaching and said to myself, "You gotta be kidding! Snowmobiles?"
So, it's still probably thicker than it looks, a notion supported by today's windy weather failing to open Black Cat Shoals more than it did. The wave action very gradually wore away at the edge of the ice, seemingly not much faster than the rate at which flowing water deepens the Grand Canyon.
If the ice were truly thin enough to go in the next week or so, I'd expect wind action like today's to make more exciting headway against the edge of the ice.
It will be interesting to see what happens later this week. As I mentioned earlier in the Weather Thread, Thursday-Friday are shaping up to be in the 70s. With each passing day I have become increasingly convinced that we could see our first 80-degree day at the end of this week. With each new update of the forecast, the forecast highs for Thurs-Fri get warmer. Our first 80-degree day of any spring season usually starts off as a much cooler forecast and gradually the predictions get warmer as the day approaches. That is how Thursday-Friday have been evolving since Saturday. Meteorologists aren't ready to cry "SUMMER-LIKE!" until they know they won't be wrong.
I'm only mentioning it as a chance and not as a definite. Keep watching the forecast for the end of this week to see if it continues to trend warmer with each update.