For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather.
As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'.
No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing.
We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting!
R2B
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