Ice-Out 2008
 

This is your official Ice-Out Thread....once again we begin the watch until the lake is free of ice. The Ice-Out page is up at www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

This has been a terrible year for snowmobiling on the lake.... I am sorry that the Babes on Sleds' snowdancing was too successful.

Please let me know here or email rattlesnakecam@comcast.net if you want to upload a daily or weekly picture from some part of the lake. I will create a space for you and directions on how to upload.

The recent rains filled in a lot of potholes on the lake and left open water up to 12" deep with ice below.

So... what are your predictions for Ice-out this year... early, late, or normal.

Please check out the Google Ads and other ads on the various Winnipesaukee Websites... they help keep our sites free to you.

Here's to a great new liquid season!!
IG

:coolsm:

Are we of the opinion that the "out" process has begun????

BT

I say early for sure, lots of water on the ice now and certainly not the thickness/setup that we had last year. Certainly plenty of snow- I heard there is 3-4 feet on my deck at Mark as of Saturday.

I had guessed the 18th but my gut tells me sooner. Not as early as 2 years ago, but somewhere in between the last 2.

Only the lake knows for sure
 

This thread starts around this time each year.... sometimes a little earlier... It is March... it will get warmer... this thread might be slow for a little while, but it will get very active shortly!!! How is Sebago


IG

Where's that cool ice-out cam that posts the (almost) daily shots pointing toward a gas dock? I seem to remember Silver Sands or something...

Silver Sands
 

Yes, Grant that is Silver Sands... they do not have their 2008 page up yet... as soon as they do, I will link to it... I love watching that page.

A little secret: If you go to the ice-out page and hover over the white space under the link for DRH's Ice-Out Page, you will find the link to Silver Sands' 2007 page.

IG

Nice of you to ask...
 

Sebago Lake is still mostly frozen although the Main Bay didn't lock in until Feb 22nd. There are many areas that are not/never were safe but plenty that are such as the "Station" in Standish and Jordan Bay in Raymond. In all the years that I have followed it and made comparisons, Winnipesaukee and Sebago have "ice out" within days of each other.

( Secret: IG used to come to Sebago many years ago before her beloved Rattlesnake)

BT

maybe a differernt process
 

This year, there are some different processes eroding the lake ice, other than direct warmth-on-ice. Today on a south-facing shore I saw the sun had melted away all the snow on an exposed part of the shore, and the resulting meltwater had flowed into the lake, eroding the ice right at that spot.

I would also guess that weakening will occur as the flow gets going from all the meltwater we'll have soon... runoff in, dam water out...

Since we are in an active weather pattern there is also good chance that a storm will take it out, like last year. Had it not been for the April 16 storm with its 64-mph wind gust (sustained at 45 mph for a couple of hours), last year's ice would've lasted a lot longer I think. It got busted up by force and 80-degree temps melted the pieces a few days later.

I think that the end of March into April will end up being a bit colder than normal. This just might delay ice out. Heck, I hit 8* at my house last night.

Ice quality
 

This year's ice formation was different than usual. I don't think we got the solid thick black ice that forms the base and takes longer to melt. The ice also has layers of snow that may melt more easily than the more dense stuff..

Remains to be seen... I could be wrong, but I think the melt will be fast. It may be cold now... but the sun is high and we have that extra hour at the end of the day...

This is always an exciting part of the year for me..

IG

The ice formed completely from snow this year, as opposed to last year's 'black' ice. It was December's snows that started to freeze the lake over beginning on the 3rd. "Snow ice" is not as high quality as "Black ice" because it's flaky and has lots of air pockets in it. Then it kept snowing on top of it, and snow is actually a very good insulator so it kept the ice from attaining the quality it had last year when it froze long before we got a good dumping of snow. Daylight Saving Time won't do anything to melt it, because while DST made sunrise & sunset an hour later by our clocks, the length of time between sunrise and sunset is still the same.

IG, I wasn't sure if you were serious or just kidding around, but since a few people have asked me seriously about that in person ("will the extra hour of daylight help to melt all this snow?"), I figured I'd clarify it for anyone else who's seriously wondering. DST does the same exact thing as if we just told all the schools and workplaces to begin & end daily operations an hour earlier, but that would have a different psychological effect on us. In effect, we're going to work/school an hour earlier than we were last week but the clock change makes us rave about the 'longer' afternoon instead of complaining about having to wake up an hour earlier. The government's rationale behind the earlier DST is that afternoon daylight is more useful to us than morning daylight, so by having us do all our work an hour earlier in the day they're hoping we'll spend more time outdoors in the afternoon instead of consuming electricity indoors. Morning isn't a peak energy-usage time, but afternoon usually is.

Interestingly, the ice has made more "growth-booms" in the last couple of cold nights than I've heard all winter. Might be that the rain storm killed all the insulating fluff on top, for the first time all winter.

The underlying water seems to be a degree or 2 warmer than last year. Last year on the 9th of March water going over the dam was 33 degrees. This year it has remained a consistant 35 degrees. (This is a mix of shallow and deeper water.) As CLA said water running over the ice or on top of the ice has the same erroding effect as it has on rock or dirt. There also is no frost in undisturbed areas. This will cause the snow pack to melt from below once temps remain above freezing for longer periods. The snow will leave much the same way frost leaves the ground from the bottom up. Check Black Cat water temps at 2 ft and 10 ft both are above 32 degrees. Relatively warm runoff will increase water temps below the ice rapidly. My guess the first week of April we'll be boating. I got in 3 days on the lake before official ice out last year thanks to the Noreaster!!

Link to the Ice Out page (Silver Sands)
 

A Snake-Eyes Easter Egg? Very cool. Thanks.

an open lead
 

This afternoon a 2-inch crack opened up between Black Cat Island and Black Cat Shoals (FL 83). The shoals themselves opened up yesterday, just a foot or two surrounding the rocks.

While the ice otherwise remains plenty strong enough to support snowmobiles (they keep going by) the opening between the island and the shoals is usually the first visible step in the iceout process for the NW end of the lake. Once fully open, it provides the wind an access point to start ripping.

Thanks to the webcam operators
 

As we watch the progression of ice-out over the next few weeks please take a second to thank all of the webcam operators who make this possible for you. If you look at the ice-out page, and the webcams page and click on each image you will find that someone out there has taken the time and effort to show a piece of our area.

Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.) We can see the changing conditions frequently and assess the traveling possibilities.

I appreciate the willingness of all of the owners to allow their cams to be viewed from a webcams page and urge you to click on their ads once in a while to keep these cams free. If you visit a sponsor... mention that you saw their ad on that particular webcam...

Thanks everyone for your support and a special thank you to my fellow webcam operators.. and the Snake Eyes contributors....

Let's watch the ice melt!! :coolsm: (my non-lake friends think that I should not say that outloud.. sounds wacky!!)

IG

ps...I hope to adjust the exposure on Snake Eyes on Saturday.. My great friends will provide transport.... weather and lake conditions permitting.. thank them too!!!)

www.weirscam.com
www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm
www.rattlesnakecam.com/lakecams.htm
www.rattlesnakecam.com

Certainly a big thanks to you IG for being the inspiration for many more lake cams.Great job!

IG, thanks so much for the reminder to folks on how to support the cam sites. Even on a site with graphics like mine, no one should assume "this site is obviously all set for support." Since some have asked (privately), My site's design reflects a little knowledge of Photoshop and web design that I gained in college when I should've been studying other subjects (D'oH!)

As far as Moultonborough view is concerned, my WeatherCam is Moultonborough for all intents and purposes. It's true that the southern half of Black Cat sticks into Meredith but this view doesn't represent Meredith much at all - the town is on the other side of the lake from here, and isn't even visible. Most of Black Cat Island is in Moultonborough.

In the cam view, the right side includes Meredith, Gilford, and Alton while the left side is mostly Moultonborough (except for 5-mile island.) For details (and a visibility chart) visit the information section of the weathercam site.

Now about iceout... significant things have happened today. The Black Cat Shoals became much more open thanks to wind gusts of 42 mph. The crack between there and the island also became more evident and will soon be an open lead. When it becomes a couple hundred feet wide, iceout is usually within a few days... depending on weather. Wind will speed the process but extremely low temperatures (like this morning's) results in some reformation of the ice and overnight thickening.

The crack and open shoals can be seen easily in this cam image from this morning.

But if the 10-day forecasts are reasonably accurate, we're in for at least another week of cold (40's), damp, dark weather, with temps below freezing at night. I doubt we're going to see much change in the ice over the next week.

I suddenly agree it's thicker than it looks...
 

Around 6 p.m. I had an eye-opening as I spied a compact car riding between Black Cat and Beaver Islands. The car made its way along the MOUNT route all the way down to near Steamboat Island before turning and coming back, then heading in the direction of Center Harbor.

While the car was hanging out down by Steamboat, a snowmobile came by, not incredibly fast, and made the circle around Black Cat.

It's apparently thicker than it looks out there...

Apparently, so are the drivers! :laugh:

7 Cars and trucks in front of our house right now. Parked fairly close to one another. Must still have good ice in this part of Moultonboro.

My guess is they would be fishermen, my next guess is the know how thick the ice is :D

Right on both accounts.

Ice Out Prediction for 2008
 

I'm guessing it's going to be a 'normal' Ice Out, with it occurring sometime around Tax Day (April 15th). I'll even hazard a guess as to the time: 3:30PM.

The water temperature seems to determine ice-out more than most other indicators. If you look at the temperature history on this website you will see it is amazingly consistent in late March. We are on track and should see a degree increase sometime in the next 10 days! :coolsm:

Hey, Weekend Pundit!
 

In the "contest," I picked April 15th at about 2:30. I hope great minds think alike on this one.

Oh, and my guess was sent from Jersey. I actually won the ice out contest held by the "Main Street" newsletter in Alton a few years back. I randomly picked my son's birthday and that was the winner.

Didn't work after that, though.

nj2nh

East side of the lake
 

"Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.)"

IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large? :confused:

More on topic for this thread - ahve they started the annual "Ice Out" guessing contest? Historically April 20th is a good guess - a high percentage of ice outs around that day... time will tell.

Sebago Lake
 

IG and Blue Thunder,

I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead.

Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess.

A Maniac for Life,
Bill

Looks like tropical blue...
 

Looks can be deceieving because there has been car and sled traffic on this ice this past weekend, but the color scheme in this Black Cat WeatherCam image seems tropical. One thing to note is the presence of a lot of standing water on the ice adjacent to that crack between the island and the shoals. That's how it starts.

I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate? :confused: I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky?

Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though! :D

Go for it
 

I use copper.net for an isp and they have local phone numbers... most ips's do. The phone call is usually less than a minute, every ten minutes.

Bear Islander has a lot of information on setting up a webcam on his bearcam site. http://www.bearcam1.com/cam_info.htm

IG

Pepper surfaces!!
 

Well, there you are, woman. You have come up for air???

When the ice gets a dull gray color it is getting punky.

IG

I've apparently been trapped in blue ice and finally came up for air! :D

Hey Bill,
For clarification purposes, Island Girl's love for island living was forged by some stays on Sebago and Frye Island many years ago. She is and has been on Rattlesnake for some time now. I'm the outcast (some will say) over on Sebago, this being my 40th year of either vacationing or owning here. I do however, have a genuine interest in the NH Lakes region and try to participate in this wonderful forum for the greater good.

You're right, the water quality of Sebago Lake is unparalleled in New England and the boating here is a lot less hazardous than Winnipesaukee even though the lake is 45 square miles of water. I camped at the State Park as a kid and an adult and had a seasonal at Point Sebago for seven years.

Thanks for chiming in,

Blue Thunder

It's melting!!!!!!!!!!!
 

My drive around Alton Bay this afternoon revealed a LOT of standing water on top of the ice. A quick check of all the cams on the Ice-Out page indicates the same condition all over the lake, so today's warm air and sunshine is doing it's part. The ice is dwindling, slowly, but it is going! :D

another lead
 

Today another lead became evident, opening between Black Cat Shoals and Three Mile Island. Once it opens, it will form a water channel between Black Cat and Three Mile, with the shoals as a midpoint.

This is important because the strongest and most frequent wind in this area (NW and SE) runs perpendicular to where the lead is setting up (SW to NE). The wind will be able to widen the crack on both sides and tear the ice right out if we get a windy storm.

Also today, the surface temp at Black Cat WeatherCam went to 35 for the first time since ice-in. This was in response to the depth temp (10 feet) rising to 35 in the last 24 hours after remaining at 33/34 all winter. Both temperatures are now equal at 35. The water is quickly working its way toward its non-winter pattern in which the surface is warmer than underneath.

Tomorrow may be a minor set-back as snow falls on the water surface... this usually has a cooling effect that may result in some weak re-freezing of open areas.

Silver Sands page is up
 

I emailed Barry Uicker yesterday about his Silver Sands page and he emailed back to say it's up and running as of today. A lot of good info on his page. A big THANK YOU to Silver Sands Marina and Barry Uicker!

Blue Thunder

http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Feature...t_2008_ice.htm

Just in case you were wondering
 

Only 17 Days and 3 hours left until Ice Out:)

I think 17 days was about 9 days too long for ice out. There's 6" of ice and 19 inches of frozen rain soaked snow. By the looks of cracks and plates forming 2 days in the 50's and a good wind would turn it into a giant slurpie. Now all I have to do is dig the boat out.

New Submarines??
 

I heard somewhere, (maybe WMUR) that a couple of trucks went through the ice in Alton earlier this week. Any info on that? The ice wasn't thick enough for them I guess.

The Breeze
Wave 'Cuz I'll be Wavin' Back:)

Didn't go through the ice...they sank down in the slushy snow on top of ice and had to be pulled off ice. boat ramp access in Alton is now closed off.

Hey UP,
At what point will you be taking your semi-daily pictures of ice out in Alton Bay?

BT

I drive through Manchester daily, and drive by Stevens Pond, which is right next to/under I-93. In a typical season, that pond is ice free ~3 weeks before ice out on Lake Winni. As of this AM, it still has a decent amount of ice on it, but it is receding, and it looks real thin right on the edge closest to the highway. I would guess that it will be ice free around Monday. Ice out on track for the last week of April IMO.

BTW, my ice out guess is very early May. ;)

My yearly request for updates on Mirror Lake
 

Hey all,

I think I ask this every year. Planning to open camp the week of April 22. Need to know if I bring the boat or not.

Can someone provide regular updates on Mirror Lake?

Thanks.
Chris

dare I say it?
 

Looks like the water temp is about 2 weeks behind last year. Are we looking at a May Ice Out?!!!!!!!!:eek::eek:

Each day I drive by the lake, Wolfeboro area, as a way to get rid of the winter blues. I must say that each day the ice seems to pull away from land more and more. In addition, the color of the ice is a blueish color. Wolfeboro Bay is open more than last year, so hopefully this means the ice is weakening. We'll see! I'm thinking April 26th!

Thats it, I'm buying an icebreaker!

Aerial view of Lake Winni on Sunday 3/30/2008
 

Great shot Ladyslipper.

That would be a great scene if this was December 30th, but March 30th? Will ice out ever come?

Alton Bay, right?
 

This shot is from Alton Bay, looking northish, right? Sure looks like Echo Point dead center.

nj2nh

Yes, the nose of the airplane is looking up Alton Bay
 

You can see a hint of the propeller spinning.
In the center of the pic is Rattlesnake Island.:)

We made our first visit of 08 to the lake today.

The bad news,

• local fisherman told me he was using an ice auger this week and still seeing close to 2' of ice in many areas
• While we were opimistic on the drive as the snow didn't seem as bad as I expected in many areas, around the lake it is at least 2' and more in many areas

The good news,

• We're supposed to see several sunny days in the 60's this week!
• I took a long walk and you could hear lots of water running everywhere. It is melting fast
• The water temp bumped up for awhile this week
• The snow and ice are porous and break easily when stepped on
• At least the melt is slow and controlled. If all this had melted at once, we'd be complaining about mass flooding

Spring's coming, it's just taking it's time.

Another view of Rattlesnake Island 03/30/2008
 

Hopefully this attaches correctly.:confused:

Maybe you all could start throwing rocks at the ice or something to break it up? How about using blow dryers and really, really long extention cords? Perhaps you could start taking water out of the lake, heating on the stove and pouring it back in?

Ice Out is supposed to be April 15th, ya know! Well, that's the date I picked anyway.

nj2nh

Package weather
 

How about if I package some of my weather here in FL and ship it to Winni. Wait a minute SKybus just went out of business. Newington to FL was a good flight at a cheap price.

Water Temp is the Key
 

Seems to me the main culpret in the deicification of the Lake is the temperature of the water. The warmer water eats at the ice from below. Wind plays a part as the ice gets thin enough to break up and be more actively mixed with the water (like stirring a drink). 40 degrees seems to be the key water temperature - very shortly after the water temp gets to 40 ice is out. Here is the history since 2002.

Year Ice Out Temp Reached 40 deg
2002 4/4 4/3
2003 4/25 4/20
2004 4/20 4/14
2005 4/20 4/17
2006 4/3 4/1
2007 4/23 4/23

Well I was off by a day, but ice out on Stevens Pond in Manchester is hereby declared by yours truly, today, April 8th. Therefore, ice out on Lake Winni is on schedule for April 29th. It is 3 days before my guess, but I am still in the game.

Lots of ice by air
 

Hey Folks,

My Dad was out flying today and sent me some pictures. He asked I share them with you all to show just how much ice is out there! I added them to the photopost/spring section. I was surprised, it looks more like February!

NOt ice out yet ,,,,but not too long
 

coming from Meredith today ,towards the weirs ,at the top of the hill above colorshed ,you can see whatappears to be open water from Eagle island all the way over to spindle point. I am sure its not open water [quite a distance and I was traveling 40-45 miles an hour = - but I believe it is VERY gray ice ,just looking for a reason to sink,,,, when you exit the channel from Paugus bay out onto the "lake " the ice is gone all the way over to all of the docks at the weirs ...all open water ,maybe a few hundred feet from shore ..Paugus is open from channel marine out to a bit past 4 seasons condo's ,,,the ice at the merdith docks are not safe for ducks to walk on ...I stick with my guess ,,,what was it? April 23rd around 2:30 p.m. I really don't remember
Mike

Snowmobiles
 

Yesterday I saw a snowmobile traverse the lake from around Center Harbor down to Five-Mile Island. I can't remember the last time I saw snowmobiles on the ice in April. I saw another one this morning, towing something.

Last year at this time, there was significantly more open water. Most of the ice went out forcefully during the 60+ mph winds of the April 16 NorEaster.

This weekend's weather will likely have an impact, as we are expecting heavy rain. Runoff flowing into the lake rapidly will erode the shoreline ice more than it already is. The pounding rain on top of the ice will eat away at it.

At Black Cat WeatherCam the water temp at 10 feet has been holding steady at 35 for the last couple weeks, while the surface has been fluctuating. It's been reaching 35 in the daytime but the cold nights have been bringing it back to 33 and the surface of open water has been re-freezing. Last night was the first night I saw the surface temp stay above 33 all night... it was 34 this morning, and 10-foot depth is still 35.

My View
 

Hate to disappoint y'all, but flying over the lake today, we saw VERY little open water anywhere.

Three weeks?
 

There are some rocks near us, where the water opens up about three weeks before ice-out. They opened today. :(

Sounds good to me. ;)

Do not be fooled by the current condition. The Lake Winni Gods know what a tough winter we had. As such, the Gods will shine down on us and open up the lake before May 1st.

For the first time since last fall, the water temp at the WeatherCam has shifted to summer pattern: Warmer water on top, colder water underneath (all winter long it's the opposite.)

Today the surface temp has risen to 36 while underneath remains at 35 (where it's been for the last several days despite fluctuations on the surface.)

Things are shifting quickly today.

• Area beside Silver Sands doc is now open water
• Since this morning, a large area on Ossipee Lake cam has opened up
• Alton Bay is opening fast
• During the day, ice in the sandbar area on Winnisquam has disappeared

What a difference a warm day makes!

Judging by the Silver Sands page from last year comparing conditions to conditions, todays picture looks like it did on April 5th of 2007, basically 5 days behind.

Checking out the various webcams it certainly is obvious that things are starting to move! :D Silver Sands is open to the end of the dock, Smith Cove is opening up nicely.

The huge piece that broke off several days ago in front of the Black Cat Island cam seems to have moved completely out of view to the left (it had been shifting only slightly back and forth until today), and the Black Cat Weather Cam shows significant opening over the past few days.

The Fairhaven Cam shows their cove rapidly melting, and lastly the Castle cam is definately showing ice that looks considerably more gray than in previous days.

At long last it's melting! :D

We got our two week indicator today (Thursday the 10th). Local lake went ice free. Has been a reliable 2 week predictor for several years. We will see how it holds up this year.

It looks like the water on one side of Alton Bay and the water by public docks might meet quite soon according to the webcam. Ditton for the shoals and the shore on the Black Cat cam. I check 'em every day - sometimes twice!

nj2nh

Yesterday's 100% of possible sun combined with 57 degree max (warmest since Oct. 31) caused a lot of melting yesterday.

Melting has slowed down to a crawl today, with temp remaining in the low 40s. Also, we've lost the sun behind the clouds from the approaching storm.

The weekend's expected rain will have an eroding effect on the ice, further opening holes and wearing down the upside of the ice. This will likely be the only ice-thinning factor for a few days, until we get back to the upper 50s/60s later next week.

Comparison - This year to last year
 

Here are two pictures from the WeatherCam. The first is from April 6 last year, and the second is from today (April 14.)

It does appear we are behind last year's iceout schedule. Last year the ice would've stayed a lot longer if it hadn't gotten busted up forecfully by the April 16 Nor'Easter. The 60+ mph winds broke it up into bergs which were more easily melted by the 80-degree weather we had a week later.

I think based on this, we'll have iceout 4-7 days later than last year's iceout would have been, if the storm hadn't hit... unless a storm hits us again this year... but I don't see that happening in the next several days.

So, Wolf Man - you're talking mid May?!

Ice Out is Coming!
 

As of today Angle Pond in Sandown/Hampstead and Sunset Lake (aka Wash Pond) in Hampstead are free of ice. This happened in the last few days so it is coming to Winni soon. With the predicted temps over the next few days it should help get the lake opening up. Alton Bay is open to the band stand and Wolfeboro on the Club Cam is showing signs of opening too.

ice report
 

Winter Harbor is still locked up tighter than a bull's ass during fly season.
I did catch a nice salmon Saturday off a dock that had a bubbler going all winter. The ice was out about 75' around the dock. Hook-jawed male, 19", 2lbs-7oz. Eeee-haw.

I am relatively new at this having only 10 years local observation, prior years from a distance. Today the bandstand in Alton Bay is just clearing of ice and the ice is beginning to have that unlasting look about it.
With warm weather this week, I would say with help from the wind, maybe in 10 days or the 24th. 15 days at the outside. Anyway, our standing order with Jeff Fay is to have the boat in the water and ready to go at ice out. So I'll make my usual stop to check with him early next week and he will say, when he sees me coming, don't worry, the boat will be ready. Not that I am ever in a hurry to make the 1st trip to the island.

It's hard to say when last year's ice would've gone out, had it not been for the April 16 storm. I'm guessing it probably would've been early May before it could've been official. It always gets hung up on that official bit for a couple days, it seems. It gets to the point where most of us can't see any ice, but Flyguy and satellite imagery show clearly that the MOUNT's path is blocked somewhere.

Also, this year, the ice remained thicker than it looked pretty late. It was only a week ago we had snowmobiles going from Center Harbor down to Five-Mile and Bear. I was about to say "That ice is looking pretty weak now" until I heard the engines approaching and said to myself, "You gotta be kidding! Snowmobiles?"

So, it's still probably thicker than it looks, a notion supported by today's windy weather failing to open Black Cat Shoals more than it did. The wave action very gradually wore away at the edge of the ice, seemingly not much faster than the rate at which flowing water deepens the Grand Canyon.

If the ice were truly thin enough to go in the next week or so, I'd expect wind action like today's to make more exciting headway against the edge of the ice.

It will be interesting to see what happens later this week. As I mentioned earlier in the Weather Thread, Thursday-Friday are shaping up to be in the 70s. With each passing day I have become increasingly convinced that we could see our first 80-degree day at the end of this week. With each new update of the forecast, the forecast highs for Thurs-Fri get warmer. Our first 80-degree day of any spring season usually starts off as a much cooler forecast and gradually the predictions get warmer as the day approaches. That is how Thursday-Friday have been evolving since Saturday. Meteorologists aren't ready to cry "SUMMER-LIKE!" until they know they won't be wrong.

I'm only mentioning it as a chance and not as a definite. Keep watching the forecast for the end of this week to see if it continues to trend warmer with each update.

I just saw a small outboat on the open water in Alton Bay on the webcam! Let me tell you, that was a very exciting thing to see. :D

Of course, I could still see ice in the distance, but the pavilion is definitely floating free.

Sadly, I have lost the ice out contest. Today was my day. Stupid date to pick.

nj2nh

any day now!
 

The good news is that looking at the webcams is that very shortly we should be able to launch the alumacraft and make it out to the island by weaving through the cracks in the ice and where it's melted close to shore... if history repeats, the first island visit can usually be done a week or ten days before "official iceout", with a big factor being if we get a big wind that starts moving the bergs around and breaking them up against the shore...

it's been a long winter, i can't wait!!

PIG

Cruisin' Round the Ice-Out info
 

Anxiously I await ice out.... first a trip to Snake Eyes to take a look at the broads (go ahead, you can click on a Google Ad), then clicking on the link to the ice out page I view all the Winni Web Cams... ( iclick on their google ads from time to time!)... then at the top of the ice out page, I click on DRH's ice out page to see the day to day differences in the ice out progress... and finally to The Silver Sands Ice out page to see the day to day progress from their location.... this is my daily (well... probably more frequently) routine.... until the ice is out!!! The lake temp went up another degree... 3 more to go!!!

Start your engines!!!
IG

Mirror Lake or 19 Mile Bay
 

How are Mirror Lake and 19 Mile Bay looking?

Latest high res satellite photo suggests we're still socked in for a while... I can't see any large scale openings anywhere. Few cracks showing up on Winnisquam.

Well
 

As Silly as it sounds, I am hoping for large gusts of winds for the rest of the day today and thursady just into Friday morning, to break this ice up fast. Come on mother nature, you battered us all winter and we are Still here, it is time for you to lend us a hand!:argue:

The ice is changing fast. Check out DRH's webpage and see the difference 7 hours made yesterday. ;)

Even the satellite imagery above shows the ice with a decidedly gray tone, as opposed to the bright white of a week ago. :D

There's no denying that each day as I drive around the Gilford-to-Alton Bay slice of the lake, the tone of the ice is deepening, and the cracks are widening. The ice is moving further away from the shore each day as well.

Now, since we haven't got any rain in the forecast, and no significant wind either, I suggest that we call each marina on the lake and ask that they place one boat in the water and give it a good test-drive for maneuverability: run it in circles, at fast speed, thereby creating some waves to start breaking it up! :D

Meanwhile, we should all click on the Amazon link at the top right of the ice-out page, and learn all about the exciting new technology available there. ;) If that doesn't excite you, go to the left hand side and check out the world of exciting vacations. :)

Nice picture
 

Where did you find that picture? How often is it updated?

the cold nights keep setting things back
 

For a second morning in a row the open water froze over during the night, and it wasn't just a skim... it was still frozen at 10 a.m., several hours after sunrise. This also adds some thicknes (though probably not much) to the existing ice, just like it does in the cold of winter.

I think we have one more night of below-freezing temps. As I mentioned in another thread, these cold nights are a result of the nice weather we're having. Clear skies + calm winds + dry air allows radiational cooling after dark, where the heat of the day rises up into the cosmos like it does in the desert at night.

Even a partial overcast or 10 mph wind at night would help to keep more heat on the ground. Humidity would do the trick, too... all those microscopic water droplets in the air can heat up during the day and hold onto the heat a lot longer than the air by itself. But we don't have that... it's clear, calm, and dry. The dewpoint is 21 degrees, which represents the temperature the air could cool to, given a clear/calm night. The lower the dewpoint, the lower the amount of moisture in the air. Once the air cools to the point where it's saturated with moisture ("dew") then it can't go lower.

We either need dewpoints in the 50s+ (normal summer day) to help retain each day's heat in the water and air, or else we need zero-degree dewpoints (i.e. Cactus climate) so the ice just evaporates off the lake.

For tomorrow and Friday we should see a return to 24-hour ice melting as temps rise to the lower 70s during the day (I still wouldn't be surprised to see a handful of locations hit 80 on Friday.) There's still a lack of wind on the forecast maps. Our best chance for breezy conditions is Thursday night and Friday morning when a storm will pass well offshore of Martha's Vineyard and its fringes may give us some northeast winds. What we really need are NW or SE winds, blowing along the length of the lake where they can go the longest distance without getting slowed down by anything.

I just wanted to remind everyone that the official Ice-Out occurs only when the Mount can navigate between its ports. The lake can be almost entirely free of ice without Ice-Out being declared. This happened in 2001 when a stubborn flow of ice blocked the Mount from reaching Wolfeboro even though the rest of the lake was free of ice. Ice-Out in 2001 wasn't declared until May 2nd.

Ice-Out dates since 2000:

2000: 4/10
2001: 5/2
2002: 4/5
2003: 4/25
2004: 4/20
2005: 4/20
2006: 4/3
2007: 4/23
2008: ?

Ice-Out dates for the last 120 years are here.

You can find the images on the modis rapidfire site but they are not updated every day, and its tricky to find a clear image even when they are.

Another interesting aspect of that high res satellite shot (for you weather weenies) is the area of dark brown from Moultonboro through Tuftonboro. Seems like this area is the first to lose their snowpack in the region? Maybe someone up there can confirm this. But if so, I think it is a teltale sign of the shadowing influence the Ossipee Range can have on the area during winter noreasters; less snow falls on the lee side of the hills than the windward side, so naturally this area will be the first to get back to bare ground in the spring.

I looked at Rattlesnake cam this morning as I normally do, finally there is a break in the ice and visible water (only a little, but we need hope). The ice is looking darker and darker everyday, we can't wait.

We are taking the boat out in CT today (Long Island Sound), it will be 75 degrees.

The fun has begun
 

We saw that too...keep watching as the stream of water gets wider and wider... over the next day.. it is amazing to watch. I will be on the island this weekend.. hope to take some pictures as we watch the ice melt!! (only on this forum could I say that and have people understand and not think I had gone off the deep end)

IG :D

Watching the Ice Melt
 

It is time to watch the ice melt... stop working..and watch the webcams... If you crave watching the progress on Snake Eyes...here is the page with the last 10 images... they update every 10 minutes.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/snakeeyesall.htm


Enjoy
IG

I know what you mean, a few people have caught a glimpse of my monitor when I was daydreaming. They asked what the webcam was, and I told them it was snake eyes and then I proceeded to say, we are all watching the ice melt. They look perplexed and wander away thinking the stress of the day has finally snapped me.

Only we know that it is the other way around, watching the cam is a great way to change the focus of a stressful day.

How are you getting out to the island? I'm jealous!

island life
 

I am getting there by special friends with a special vehicle.

Enjoy watching the ice melt in person, and post pictures. I'm still jealous.

Here is a nice false color infrared image taken this morning which captures the thinning ice better than the visible shot. Clearly the area from Gilford down through Alton is close to breaking while the northern bays are still socked in. Wentworth and Squam are a long way from breaking, too.

Ice-out will be happening anytime now. Thanks to the concerted efforts of the Pine Island Residents Association, the Pine Island Ice Monster has been unleashed.

The Pine Island Ice Monster only makes an appearance during those years where ice-out threatens to extend well into the month of May.

As you can see, it has started eating away at the ice at the spot where it was released.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...=12675&cat=523

Thank you for pointing that out. I had forgotten about that, given today's weather!

The shadowing would have occurred when winds were from the northeast (as in a Nor'easter) and caused less snow on the opposite (southwest) side of the mountains.

Also aiding the quicker melt on that SW side is the fact that it faces the sun, and every aspect that faces the sun for a fair amount of time was the first to melt off, even when 2 feet remained in the shade.

On Black Cat we have mostly bare now, but there are still patches of snow in the shadows of thick trees and on north-facing aspects. We have snow left over from December, and there's only 2 weeks until May 1. This has been a most memorable winter.

Black Cat Shoals opened up a lot more today. Hindering the melt-off was the fact that the open water was skimmed over with ice again this morning and the fact that we haven't had much wind (just a light breeze) all day.

Tomorrow I'm a lot more confident that a couple of places around here will hit 80. The rest of us will all be in the 70s.

Holy Canoli! The ice has seen dramatic changes through the course of today! :D According to the Black Cat Island Weathercam, the temperature at 2 feet below the surface is flirting very seriously with 40 degrees - WOOOOO HOOOOO! All the cams are showing serious degrading of the surface today, and over on the Silver Sands Webpage the "Old Man of the Lake" is predicting ice-out will be on the 24th. He's very often right on target, so perhaps we ought to start :cheers: to him now. Let's hope he's right on target, or at least close.

Judging by the rapid changes we see today, I think it's entirely possible that over the next few days we're going to see the ice breaking up quickly into sheets, and floating around fast.

The Pine Island Monster is definately working hard - he's been in the same spot for quite a while today.;)