Wind Forecasts
 

While giving kudos to the weather forecasters for their high accuracy on extended weather forecasts and abilty to let us know what is coming for temperature and cloud cover, why is it that the wind forecasts always seem so off?

Example, today: For the past several days I've watched the forecast. Every time it predicted wind in the single digits or very low teens. Today has been far from that here on Merrymeeting. White caps, large swells, gusts over 30 mph.

I have not been surprised as a temperature and humidity change like we are having is usually accompanied with strong winds.

But why does it seem that predicting the wind is the hardest part of the forecast?

"Predictions Rock"
 

Except for a "calm", "light", or "variable" wind forecast in the Winnipesaukee area, you can always add 10-MPH to whatever is predicted. :rolleye1:

Today wasn't supposed to be particularly windy, so I went for a sail about 9AM. The wind picked up two hours later, forcing my decision to quit for the morning. As I raced home—unwillingly before the wind—other sailboats came out—and promptly turned back! :eek:

At 4PM, the wind picked up to about 40-MPH: Johnson's Cove emptied out. :eek2: Right now, it's still over 20-MPH. At this time, my thermometer shows 64°—we were "promised" mid-80s.

:( I'm going to get a "weather rock"! :mad:

Wind Forecasts
 

A couple of summers ago at the Libby Museum (Rt 109, Wolfeboro) I attended a weather program presented by the one of the WMUR Channel 9 weather forecasters. The program was fascinating. He explained the scientific side of weather forecasting, and then described how he interprets these results into his forecast. He readily admitted that forecasters use ranges, but that their accuracy rate is much higher than the general public realizes. He further went on to explain that he had been in the weather business in several other geographic areas of the country and that the Lakes Region was by far the most challenging to forecast weather. This challenge is created by the location of the Lakes Region being close to the seacoast and being influenced by the ocean weather currents, being close to the mountains and being influenced by the altitude and temperature changes, and the Lake itself presenting a large mass of water with several large land masses within, two conditions which can change wind and temperature.

He said when he was in the mid-West, he literally called someone miles upwind from him and then calculated the local weather using their weather and windspeed to predict the local weather. There were no significant geographic conditions to effect the weather.

So, what does this all mean ?,-- if you don't like the weather, wait a bit and it'll change, or, get yourself a weather rock (like APS suggests.)

The wind forecasts you hear on the radio or TV are for the general area. As many a boater knows, the wind does different things on the surfaces of our lakes. It even does different things from shore to shore, and in the middle. It's like forecasting wind for the White Mountains. Wind does not distribute itself evenly over the peaks, either. It could be doing one thing over Cannon Mountain, and something completely different over the Franconia Ridge just "across the street."

Same on the lakes. The computer models assume a certain type of terrain in their equations. The terrain in the weather computer models is not very high resolution. The little geographic nooks, bumps and squiggly shore lines of our lakes (all of which have extremely localized effects on wind) do not show up at all in the computer models.

Best advice: Know the localized weather effects for your favorite locations, for certain types of wind. Then, when the general forecast says the wind will be northwest at 15-20 mph, you know what that will mean for your particular location.

Predicting the Weather "Rocks"...
 

1) At 3-AM, I checked into the Black Cat Island "present weather". http://www.blackcatnh.com/
In silent testimony, it showed the wind at 2-MPH (no waves on the water).

Here, just a few miles away—through the dark—that "calm" was splashing-away noisily at my shoreline. :laugh: :rolleye2: :laugh:

2) Present BCI temperature: 61°.

Here: 55°.

Oh well...:rolleye1: I'm gonna go sailing! :look:

WCYC Weather Station
 

The long range forecast for here today, given this morning :laugh:, didn't make it till noon. Next week's forecast, has now changed for five of five of the forecasts I follow. Bright, brilliant sunshine and warm temps are now out :( Well, at least it will be warmer.

It's getting to be less accurate than stock market estimates

Chain Rocks!
 

Forecasting the wind didn't improve during September. :(

Sunday's forecast for Monday was for very reasonable winds for sailing. :) I went out in a flat calm wind, and heard a chipmunk "chipping" on the opposite shore—½-mile away! :eek2: I saw only three other boats in the Broads over the next couple of hours. :look:

The wind picked up gradually to "not so good for a leisure sail" :eek: so I tucked behind the "wind shadow" of Tuftonboro Neck for another hour of much-reduced anxiety. :) The wind then did an awful shift out of the north—and picked up to about 10-MPH+ over predictions. :eek:

A "ripping north wind" makes landing at my dock a real hazard. :( Landing with today's lower waters and a "nose-on" wind rips sails and could damage my boat and me :eek2: . I turned onto a hidden beach where there are no houses and never any boats. (I'm not disclosing where that is, you understand!) ;)

I thought I'd take a snooze and "wait-out" the unexpected tempest, but after an hour of waiting, thought I'd take a "run" at it anyway: with sails stowed (and no engine) I managed a good speed using only the bare mast for propulsion! Recognizing my dilemma, a dark-turquoise inboard paused for a moment to determine if I needed help.

Thank you, dark-turquoise-inboard, lady-captain, :) but the help I was about to need was in docking. This captain turned out to be an in-sight, but distant neighbor to me, with 12 waterfront acres presently on the market.

The landing wasn't so great, but the boat was spared any damage: with three lines and "borrowing a tree" for a time, I secured the boat to keep it from blowing under the dock. The wind never lessened, so I grudgingly left it that way overnight. (I usually pull it from the lake away from damaging wakes).

Even a Weather Rock wasn't going to be any help with Monday's unexpected wind change. :(

For weather like Monday's, we need something much better! :D

http://www.bowkera.com/images/Wyomin...YOWINDSOCK.JPG