Ice-in/Ice-out

[Long Pine]

I'm curious about the opinions of the experts (or the people with good memories) on whether an early ice-in tends to mean a later ice-out (under the theory that the ice has more time to thicken once the initial top layer is formed)? I'm guessing it would be hard to prove since I don't think that ice-in stats are kept. However, in the last 10 years, ice-out has happened on April 10th or earlier 5 times (1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2006) and on April 20th or later 5 times (2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007). Can anyone recall whether we had early or late ice-ins in those years to see if there is a correlation?

[SIKSUKR]

I think it has a small relationship to ice out.The overall winter weather has a lot more to do with the ice out date than anything else.

[CanisLupusArctos]

LP, at least a couple (maybe more) of the years you mention for early iceout were years it never froze completely. Failure to freeze completely in the first place would help the lake ice go out sooner because usually the iceout process begins in earnest when the wind finds a "purchase point" in the middle of the lake somewhere, and starts ripping, the same way a large tear in your clothing starts with a single thread coming loose.

Late ice-in doesn't necessarily mean early ice-out, though. If there is a rainy fall that creates an unusually high lake level, the Lakeport Dam will be letting lots of water out, which can cause currents and water level changes that keep it from completely freezing on time. That sort of thing could happen whether the winter is cold or warm.

Last year, ice-in was one of the latest (if not THE latest, does anyone know?). It was January 22, give or take a day, as I remember. That was due to El Nino messing with the weather pattern, preventing it from allowing a huge pool of cold air in Canada from coming south. The El Nino broke down in mid-January, and as we all remember the 'floodgates of the arctic' opened up, and we went into the icebox until mid-April. The ice formed and quickly grew to 24" thick in places.

The iceout occurred because of the infamous April 16 storm, which brought winds strong enough (64 mph) to rip apart the thick ice. The spring was otherwise extremely cold, with our lowest temp of the winter (-12) occurring in March, and Easter egg hunts canceled in the local towns because of snowstorms. The April 16 storm also served the purpose of changing the weather pattern so spring could come.

Had it not been for that storm, the ice probably would've lasted until May... amazing considering the late ice-in. Then again, had it not been for the El Nino, the unusually cold pattern that began for us in August 2006 (leading to record October snow in the mountains) probably would've continued uninterrupted, and we might've had an early ice-in.